The Week Ahead

103 Comments

5:43PM

SUMMARY…
For the next 7 days, we’ll be in an unsettled pattern. Does that mean overcast and precipitating all the time? Certainly not. But don’t look for any bright sunny days and warm Springtime air. We’ll spend most of the time in cloudiness, with occasional breaks, along with bouts of precipitation, mostly rain, but maybe some that is not rain. Timing will be difficult to determine but this is my best shot at how I see it breaking down. West-to-east frontal boundary sits over the Northeast, spending most of its time just south of southern New England, but may push far enough north for a break and somewhat milder air in southern portions of southern New England later Monday into early Tuesday, then sinks more to the south allowing the colder side to dominate later Tuesday and Wednesday. It may chill down enough so that anything that falls from the sky is not just rain, but possibly mixed and even some snow by later Wednesday. Again, uncertainty here, so don’t buy it as a high-confidence forecast. Updates will be needed. The boundary may push far enough south with a larger high pressure area to the north on Thursday so that we get some sun, at least in portions of the region, but low pressure returns to domination on Friday with cloudiness and a better chance of wet weather. A peak into the weekend shows additional low pressure in the region with more unsettled weather, but again, exact details are impossible to determine this far in advance. Stay tuned…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of light rain and possible mix/snow from south central MA to the South Coast, less chance to the north. Lows 33-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH early, variable under 10 MPH for a while, then light SE.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few periods of light rain mainly southern NH and northeastern MA. Highs 44-52. Wind light SE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle near eastern coastal areas. Lows 33-39 except 40-45 South Coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle, especially southern MA and RI. Highs in the 40s. Wind E to ENE 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle/mix. Temperatures cool to 30s.
THURSDAY: Cloudy to partly sunny. Lows around 35. Highs around 50.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows around 45. Highs around 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows around 45. Highs around 55.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain/drizzle AM. Breaking clouds PM. Lows around 40. Highs around 50.

103 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. They do indeed caution that the Northeast will be the slowest to see the change. We’ll have to be patient here. No prolonged above normal temps for quite a while yet.

    2. 2 questions: where’s the snow? There’s no snow anywhere but a few isolated man made piles, the last time we had accumulating snow was about 4weeks ago and it was 3.4 inches. Otherwise thanks for the article 🙂

      1. Depends on where you are. The vast majority of SNE is now indeed snowless except for piles. But areas up here in the woods and north sides of hills still have several inches. I do think he was mainly referring to the piles, however.
        And actually the last time “we” (NW suburbs) had accumulating snow as March 21 with 1.2 inches. There are more areas in SNE than just North Attleboro. 🙂

      2. Come up to the Bedford, MA area and you will see plenty of yards full of snow still. Especially those yards getting limited sun.

        1. Even the Reading MA area has a lot of snow in sheltered areas. I drive through it every day. 🙂 And yes even some of it is still there now.

        2. Several neighbors on non south exposure side of street are 100% covered. Uxbridge has areas 100% covered. Our north side is about 8-10 inches.

  3. A friend who is also a storm chaser reported snow showers and squalls for much of her trip from Hartford CT into south central MA this afternoon.

  5. Thanks, TK…

    64º on Christmas, 2014; 37 degrees right now, Easter Sunday, 2015…Gotta love our weather!

    Happy Easter, Passover, Spring and Baseball to all!!!

  6. Thanks TK 😀

    I remember when the snow completely covered the stairs in my yard. Then I feel like I blinked and it was gone!

    1. She is not 100% but steadily improved during the day and evening. Was able to eat a small dinner with no problems. Dad was in good shape today as well. Quite sharp and mobile compared to how he’s been. Having people around helps him!

      Overall, a very good Easter. 😀

      1. Wonderful news. And it sooo helps to be in familiar surroundings and with family. So,glad it all worked as you hoped

  10. Strip of precipitation from CT to RI to southeastern MA may come down hard enough to go frozen and accumulate a little bit in the next few hours. This will not be widespread.

  11. Been snowing on and off in Coventry CT since late PM. Ground is covered and everything is white. First time I can ever remember a white thanksgiving/brown Christmas/white Easter though I’m sure it has happened before.

  13. Good morning!! Truck temp says 33 degrees, heading to Foxboro today, today should be a beauty with some sun and temps close to 60 degrees. If you have fertilized your lawn in the last 2 weeks you are noticing a much greener lawn than your neighbors, and you will probably be performing your 1st mowing in as little as 7-10days or So.

    Looking like a few chilly days only to rebound nicely later this week, with highs back close to 60 degrees, enjoy the day everyone 🙂

  16. Another sign of spring!! 1st stop of the day and a irrigation company is here turning the water on, woo hoo 🙂

  17. Logan’s surface wind is light N to NE ….. well ……. there, most likely, goes today’s opportunity at relative mildness in Boston.

    1. I just installed gigantic fans on the roof in a futile attempt to ward off the
      East Wind!

  18. Good morning and thank you TK.

    HAPPY OPENING DAY!
    and PLAY BALL!!!!!!

    Hopefully it’s warm enough in Philly so the sox don’t freeze to death. 😀
    Was 64 there yesterday.

    1. Here’s my answer:

      Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 14m14 minutes ago
      Btw weather looks amazing in Philly for the Sox opener. Low 70s and sunny. Like they didn’t even leave Ft. Myers.

      So that’s were SPRING is?

  19. Btw, I didn’t see a rain drop or a snow flake yesterday. 😀
    Nothing this morning, even though BB said there would be something.

    Just a blah week ahead. Hopefully temperatures will over achieve by a bit.

  21. The snow is finally gone on the high school baseball field in North Resding and Charlie is mowing lawns next week. Good grief.

    1. Actually could see GREEN grass growing on the way in this morning.
      NOW that is a welcome sight to behold. 😀

  22. Its sunny outside my window now. I am going to enjoy whatever sun there is on what is looking to be an overall unsettled week. Signs of spring this week in the sports world National Championship Game in men’s college basketball, opening day of baseball, and later this week The Masters.

    1. JJ, did you get snow yesterday afternoon/night? We did in Coventry – snowed on and off but didn’t accumulate until after dark. Woke up to a blanket of white this am.

        1. Seemed to be an elevation thing. There was nothing in Manchester when I got to work this morning. I commented above that I cannot remember another year where we had a white Thanksgiving, brown xmas, and white Easter.

          Snow should be gone by late AM and I think we are now done with the white stuff in CT. Any midweek snow should stay north of us.

    1. Very interesting but chilling. We are totally incapable of resisting greed and self regulating. And folks wonder why more and more regulations appear.

      I sent it to my brother in law who lives in Moraga east of San Francisco. Thank you.

  24. 0z Euro drops about an inch of snow Wed into Thurs north of the Pike. 3″+ amounts are confined to the mtns. of VT and NH.

    Other than that, nothing remarkable in the 10 day. Below normal temps midweek, trending to seasonable thereafter. Don’t see any really warmth in the next 10 days. We have a crack at 60 again late in the week but aside from that, Euro keeps it below 60 through the long range.

  25. If we 2-3 good weeks here in the spring that is a real treat.
    I do think were going to have a summer this year where people who love 3 H weather will be happy. I heard a lot of complaints last year from people who love 3 Weather that we didn’t have much of that last summer.
    I thought last summer was one of the best summer’s we had here in quite a while.

  27. A think a lot of early evidence points to this summer being much like last and even a bit more below normal. Not good news for those who love HHH and warm pool water.

  29. AceMaster Kevin Arnone meteorologist here CT wrote an article on WXedge.com a few weeks and he feels summer temps will be below normal.
    I am rooting for him to be right but I just have this feeling were going to have more 90 degree days and a lot more humidity to deal with this summer compared to last summer.

  30. This is the article JJ referenced:
    http://wxedge.com/2015/03/31/springsummer-forecast/

    Analog year he used for this forecast was 1978 where we had a similar weak El Nino pattern and almost identical snow totals, and temperatures month by month for the winter and into the Spring here in CT. That summer was cooler than average by 2-4 degrees most months and had overall average precip but a few months that were extremely dry.

    His conclusion for this summer is below normal temps and average precipitation. There will be a few periods here and there of HHH weather, but nothing long and extended. Severe weather bouts will be less frequent than normal.

    The analog to this year makes sense given the cold lake waters over the Great Lakes and significant snow and ice pack up north in Canada. This will mute the progress of warm fronts and give cold fronts from the NW a bit more bite, at least early on.

    I can buy this forecast. And I’d be happy if it verified. Don’t mind a little HHH weather, but week after week of it in the summer gets old really fast!

    1. Excellent! thank you for posting.

      His conclusion:

      So in conclusion: I think we will have a slow start to spring, especially with rainfall. Temperatures will overall be below average. By the end of Spring and beginning of summer, temps should make it closer to normal but still below average. We will have a few stretches of warmer weather with humidity, but nothing that will last weeks like we are use too here in CT. I truly believe we will see another relatively cool Spring and Summer with average rainfall.

        1. Well then, I sure hope that you are incorrect on that one.
          Do not want HOT Summer thank you.

  31. After three straight days of heat and humidity then I want the front to come through and give us refreshing air.
    I hate when they say cold front in the summer since the air behind it is not cold but rather air that is more comfortable and refreshing.

  33. TK, I am interested to hear your outlook for the summer and why you disagree. When you get a chance of course – I know you have a lot you are dealing with right now.

    Kevin Arnone’s long range forecast is rather simplistic (basically using one analog year) and I know that there are a lot more factors and indices that go into this.

    1. Using one analog year is not usually the best method to make a long range forecast…

  36. Great link, Joshua. Will have to spend some time later reading it.

    It seems to me that I saw a map Cliff Mass posted on his blog from perhaps NWS that showed us being right around “average” for summer. I know Mass did say last fall that we would have higher than “average” snow in the northeast.

    1. To me the amazing thing about New England’s climate is the seasonal change. We don’t have quite the extremes that some parts of the country have. But, we have real, delineated seasons. I remember as a child walking with my parents on Marconi beach (Wellfleet) and thinking what would this be like in mid-winter? I still think that way. In February as I trudged through the snow in the Public Garden, I thought of what this park looks like in mid-summer. The differences are extraordinary.

      1. The seasons are one of the things I enjoy most about New England.

        The nurse Mac had today had me laughing a good portion of the time we chatted with her. One of the things I laughed hardest about was her comment about spring in New England. She said she is amazed by the people who say this isn’t spring. Her comment was that this definitely is spring and it is New England and it has always varies so just enjoy. I told her she would be welcome here 🙂

  37. Mac’s chemo nurse was saying her peepers are not out yet. She she has lived on a pond in Upton (well not literally on it 🙂 ) for 25 years. Every year, without fail, they start chirping March 18 or 19 at the latest. Interesting, because they typically come out before the tree frogs. I’m still confused by our tree frog’s appearance this early.

  38. Funny been mostly sunny in Lexington all day…not the gray cool dreary day I have been hearing about on the news (it is cloudy so I am not talking about total sun and blue skies here).

    1. Almost all sun in Milford today and now here. There was a bit of grey early pm but that was short lived. It is a beautiful day.

  40. I will be issuing a Summer outlook around the first weekend of May. After missing the snowfall by about 75 inches in Boston this Winter, I’m not sure anyone will want to read it. 😉

  41. My friend in northern NJ just posted that it’s 72 there. 42 in Boston, 47 here in Woburn with a light but steady east wind. I love this time of year. The ocean chill does not bother me in the least. 🙂

    1. Been outside most of the afternoon with no jacket or sweater. I was perfectly
      comfortable and it was only about 46 here. 44.4 now.
      It’s all relative so after this Winter, 46 felt really fine with the sun shining. 😀

      Go Sox.

      They’re ahead 3-1 in the 5th. 😀

      2. Top 6: Red Sox 4, Phillies 0 Dustin Pedroia has gone deep twice while Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez have belted homers off Phillies ace Cole Hamels.

        Nice start all the way around.

        Clay Buchholz has only given up 1 hit. I’d say he is back in form.

        1. How long will it last? Can he stay injury free. He has the stuff to be an ace, but does he have the Stamina?
          Ahh That is the question.

  44. 4PM: Bradley (Hartford CT) is 61 while Logan (Boston MA) is 41. Nothing really surprising but still interesting. 🙂

  45. Gorgeous here in CT today. Sunny most of the day and temps near 60. Walking around with no jacket and the car actually felt hot when I got in it at lunch.

  46. Very cool in Boston. Late winter chill on my 20 minute walk home. A bit warmer in Back Bay than near South Station. I’d say 3 degrees warmer. Spring hasn’t quite arrived, as there’s quite a bit of cold up north, not too far away from us: Central and Northern New England and also cities like Quebec City where the cold (and snow later this week) is still hanging tough. As you know, I declare winter officially over when Boston’s colder than QC due to the sea-breeze in Boston. QC will eventually warm up once the cold air mass has retreated to the wilds of Northern Quebec. We’re not there yet.

  47. Seriously the only snow left in our yard other than north side which we do not use is on the deck and in front of the gas grill. And those piles are still in the 2-3 ft range. Of course when I opened gas grill today I found a nest in it. Ewwwwwwww. Glad I got the charcoal grill

  48. It hit 58 here in Westwood. Beautiful day. Enjoy it while it lasts; however, accumulating snow is done.

  49. Air will be cold enough for several hours Wednesday night to support frozen precipitation in portions of the region. Whether or not precipitation will be occurring during that time remains in question.

  50. TK – You missed the Boston snowfall by 69.5 inches…assuming my math is correct. 😉 This winter was extemely unusual to say the least. I really doubt that any met even came remotely close. This IMHO was a “once in a lifetime” winter not to be repeated again for generations to come.

    TK = 41.1″
    Actual = 110.6″

    I suspect that the law of averages will come into place next winter and a repeat of 2011-2012 or at least well below normal snowfall? We will see.

      1. I am looking forward to reading your summer forecast TK. I do have a bad feeling though that HHH will be more dominant than last summer. 🙁

        1. I can tell you right now there are more signs of HHH than there are of frequent Canadian air masses.

    1. It looks quite mild Monday-Tuesday next week. Enough so that it may skew the averages to near to above normal for the 5 day period starting Sunday.

  52. I can’t remember the last time the Red Sox won an opening game on the road. Nice start to say the least!! 😀

  53. Lots of 60-65 degrees next week. Looks as if we say goodbye to the 40s for a while after Thursday.

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