I Told You We’d Be Adjusting This Forecast!

218 Comments

6:54PM

COMMENTARY…
Forecasting: It’s predicting the future. And it’s not easy. Nor can it be done in great detail without some error. And the further out in time you go (sometimes not far out at all), the greater the error becomes, most of the time, unless you’re lucky. Yesterday I made a forecast which had today cloudier and a little cooler in some areas than it turned out, and with a little more precipitation in it than actually took place. Though I did expect a frontal boundary to lift to the north and allow at least some partial clearing to come in, and that did indeed happen, there were some other surprises. I’m not sure I would have forecast Boston to be 41 and Hartford to be 61 at 4PM, but I do also know that this is not all that unusual either. It’s just little details that sometimes have significant results. That was one such detail / result. As Hartford was sitting at 61, Mount Washington, the “top of New England” way up in NH was a frigid 16 and shrouded in fog and snow – a reminder that “Winter” is not that far away. And to add to the contrast, a the Boston Red Sox opened their season in Philadelphia PA, where the high temperature was 74 today – a little hint of Summer. So there you have it, the contrast. It’s a common thing and especially so in the Spring of the year in the Northeast, as well as other parts of the country. And it can sure make forecasting an adventure. This is the reason why it is very important to follow updates if you are tracking the weather for upcoming events or just everyday needs. Hopefully if you follow this blog for that reason, I’ll be able to update frequently enough to satisfy you. That said, I’m heading to Florida in mid April for a week, because I have decided to go search for Summer a little early this year. Actually, I’m just going to Disney World. πŸ™‚

SUMMARY…
A wavy frontal boundary drifted to the north of the Boston area Monday but will come back to the south by early Tuesday, and sit down there to the south through Thursday. That spells chilly and unsettled weather with little if any sun for most of southeastern New England during the next few days. So the bonus sunshine and somewhat milder air of Monday will be gone. But fear not, there are signs of improvement late this week, and that gloomy outlook I originally had for the weekend may find a need to be scrapped in favor of a better forecast as it looks like things will move along and high pressure will take over for the weekend then move offshore slowly by Monday as high pressure makes an attempt to build aloft along the East Coast – something that hasn’t happened much in recent weeks. And dare I say it: Some of you may find early next week “warm”. But a caveat: It’s April, and there is a very cold ocean sitting next to us. That can change things at least along the coast. Early next week (Monday) is also 7 days away.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clouds return. Spotty light rain late. Lows 40-48. Wind light E.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of light rain, favoring southern MA and RI. Temperatures steady 40-48, may cool slightly to upper 30s immediate eastern coastal areas. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of rain/sleet/snow. Only brief snow/sleet coatings possible at most. Lows in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A little sun possible southern NH and northern MA morning. Spotty light rain/mix possible later. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Low 35. High 40.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 60.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 55.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 60.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 65 inland, cooler coast.

218 thoughts on “I Told You We’d Be Adjusting This Forecast!”

  6. The warm up early next week will be temporary. It’s not the start of prolonged warmth – not yet. Getting closer though…

  7. next Monday is opening day for Fenway Park… despite the 7 days away (technically 6 days, 19 hours) can we lock down that forecast TK?

    1. With that ocean? No way. All it takes is the wind being a little more southeast than south and we can roll in a stratus overcast and drop the temp to 40.

  10. Thanks Tk πŸ™‚

    Looking like starting this weekend and into next week we go above average with some consistency, near 70 degrees is very possible!!
    Average highs in mid April are between 55-62 degrees across the area, so 65-70 degrees in mid April is only slightly above average, especially inland. It’s just been so below normal overall the last 8 weeks,, it’s going to feel warm. I’ve also noticed a lot of willows and maples budding that didn’t show a thing a week ago. Goodnight πŸ™‚

  11. I know I have been kind of stranger lately. Busy work, busy family.

    Also found some posts starting to become a bit tedious. The snow haters with the “there is no snow in my yard anymore and summer is here because it is 44 and only 5 degrees below normal” vs the snow lovers with “I still have 2 feet of snow in my yard and the Asinine Model is showing a coating but that could easily be a significant 6″ got real old, real fast for me. To each there own, but it wasn’t enjoyable reading.

    Ok unsolicited rant over….

    Still really interesting for me that the significant snow was so focused on a 20 day period from January 25th – February 15th. After February 15th Boston only received 14″ and many parts of SNE were around a foot new, give or take 4″ depending on location. When you think about 110” the fact that so much fell so fast will be a phenomenon that will be hard to repeat in the next record setting winter.

    I did have the idea that sometime between 3/20 and 3/31 we would see at least one widespread moderate + winter weather event in SNE. Didn’t happen and now I have high confidence in a forecast that any widespread accumulating snow in the areas where most people live in SNE is highly unlikley during April.

    I have been on the idea of a pattern change around April 15th and I think we are already in an evolving state as I write this. More frequent western troughing as the coldest Canadian air starts to bottle up closer to the arctic as the -PNA/+EPO/+NAO/+AO blends with a moderating seasonal trend. This does not mean we a re home free from dismal weather after this week. It does lend some support to the idea that the bouts of well below normal and dreary will become less prolonged. (Caveat it is spring in NE so the closer to the coast you are, the more often the weather will trend raw and gray) When the SE Ridge finally becomes prevalent and persistent then I believe the following will happen.

    A greater chance of long stretches of HHH than are generally anticipated in SNE.

    1. The battle happens annually. I think it’s kind of silly to be honest. I just stick to observing and forecasting weather and its impacts. Seems the most sane route to take. πŸ™‚

      Generally agree with all. I think the pattern is evolving for sure. We’re not in the same one we were in before. I do think it may take a while for the ridge to become established though. Perhaps it will be sooner rather than later. I’ll have a chat with the ridge while I’m down in Florida. πŸ˜‰

      1. Exactly why I used the phrasing “when the SE Ridge finally becomes prevalent and persistent.” Not sure when it happens but it will happen and it will lead to HHH. Or at least I think it will happen….Say hi to the ridge for me. I have missed its warm embrace…

    2. Good to see you JMA. I have pictures is you’d like to see. Nothing to do with loving or hating….facts work best.

    3. Maybe that western troughing can bring some precipitation to the parched west.

      Actually a nice area of rain near northernmost California.

      1. Central Coast of California and to the north stand the best chance for rains in the evolving pattern. Unfortunately, Southern California looks to continue dry even if the pattern cools.

    1. Wow. Thanks Tom. In the early 2000s it had to have been close if not there also. I know a few suburbs did. And that is the best part of spring in New England. Ya just never know

      1. Oh yes. Many occasions where there’s been one random day in many Aprils that soars to the 80s or higher.

        On either side of that day, it’s usually in the 50s though.

        1. During April of 2008 Hartford had 9 straight days where the high was 75-84. During those 9 consecutive days Boston had one day above 80, 1 day in the 70’s, 1 day in the 60’s. 6 of those days the temperature never made it out of the 50’s.

          1. Wow, that’s a great example of the big spring difference between Boston and interior New England.

            I think TK mentioned at one point today, it was 41F at Logan and 60F in Hartford.

        2. For some reason Tom I think this was a string of days during April vacation. My girls will remember. They were house sitting in hopkinton and we had to get fans to the house

          1. Perhaps what JMA noted just above. πŸ™‚

            I wouldn’t remember it because I would have experienced the cooler Boston weather. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

            The seabreeze today in eastern Marshfield was heavy and raw.

              1. April 2002. Something tells me that’s the occurrence of one of the most intense back door cold front passages I have ever seen. 90F plus to 50F in maybe an hour.

  13. One of the things I was thinking ……

    It’s kind of cool the different weather we all experience and report on and I think I’m coming to appreciate that we really all can be seeing different conditions within small distances from one another.

    That might include snow received, snow depths, spring temps, thunderstorm frequency, foliage changes, rain/snow lines ….. you name it. A fascinating aspect of New England weather. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

  14. My top 5 favorite April weather events of all time:

    #5: April 28-29 1987. Heavy snowstorm. 10.5 inches in Woburn.
    #4: March 31-April 1 1997. April Fools Snowstorm. Over 1 inch of rain followed by 30 inches of snow at Woburn.
    #3: April 5 1995. Arctic cold front. Intense snow squall and wind gusts. Temp drop from 50s to 20s.
    #2: April 6-7 1982: April blizzard, 12-18 inches of powder snow with big drifts, lightning and thunder on April 6, followed by temperatures in the teens all day April 7. (All the snow was gone by April 11, which was Easter).
    #1: April 17 2002. Back-door cold front arrives in the middle of the afternoon with a wall of dust and bugs and a wind shift from light westerly to northeasterly with gusts over 30 MPH. Temperature at Woburn falls from 93 to 57 in under 10 minutes and continues down a few more degrees after that.

    1. Ok, that was 2002 with the back door front. We were at Ogunquit beach, which was every bit as hot and then, well …. it turned so cold very quickly.

      The only one on your list TK that I can’t recall is number 3.

  15. Tom, April 17 2002 Boston hit 93. But it was more than just one hot day even if they weren’t in 90s.

      1. Yep it oddly is the bugs I remember. They were horrible. The week was warm….not not but then in April consistently above 70 is warm. The girls has a tough time with the horses since they hadn’t shed their winter costs and colic is a real problem. It is one of reasons I remember it was a tough week. Them the temp swing made it worse

        Btw kudos to my youngest for pinning the year down for me

        1. The wall of dust and bugs was clearly visible on radar. The sky was mostly clear and there were no showers with the front.

          1. I do remember there being no coastal stratus or inland cumulus with the front, remarkable given the change.

            1. If I remember correctly, we eventually did get mostly cloudy with stratus, but it wasn’t until several hours after the front had gone by.

              1. I believe you. I remember lasting 20 minutes outside after the front passed, then went to warmer indoors. πŸ™‚

  16. My snowcover officially went to ZERO yesterday. There are 2 snowpiles left in my yard. One of them is about 2 inches high and 3 feet long and will be gone tomorrow. The other one is a little larger and is behind the shed in shade most of the day. That will take a few more days to go. All the other piles that were in the yard from shoveling are gone. All we have left now around the neighborhood are shrinking piles that were the largest.

    1. Not here. North side is untouched by humans. Still cover but have to measure. Mounds on deck and south side under a tree and in front of gas grill are added to by humans and range 1-2 feet

    2. Sounds very similar here. One snowpile left that was built up by plowing the driveway and sits in the shade of the north side of the house.

      Off of Rte 139, there are many side roads that are great short cut routes, but they are usually thickly wooded and in those woods, there’s still some patchy snowcover.

  17. Well, I find the weather outlook now for Friday and next weekend, so far today, a pleasant surprise for improvement. It gives me something to focus on during the next 3 cloudy, raw days.

    I enjoyed the conversation.

    ELA MCAS tomorrow, which I have to proctor, so, I’d better get some rest.

  18. In addition to five inches of rain predicted in N CA, the prediction is for one to two feet of snow at a few higher elevations of the Sierra, southern Cascades, and Siskiyou Mountains.

    1. Boston’s high temp was 87 on marathon day in 2012, but that was out at Logan. It was probably hotter along the course.

  20. I think tomorrow or Weds a new weather related law goes into effect in MA. I believe you have to have your headlights on when it’s raining or you risk a $5 fine (yes, $5).

    I think you also might have to have them on maybe an hour or a half hour before dusk.

          1. Am using computer now but still having trouble differentiating between rain and sleet “pinks” .

            Appreciate the links as always, OS. Sure does show where the maps differentiate.

            1. Part of the problem with making a forecast.
              Waiting on the 12Z runs to see if the situation becomes clearer.

              Am guessing we at least see some sort of mix/sleet for a period of time and possibly a period of straight snow. We shall see.

              The problem is that COLD air to the North. It has a bad habit of Leaking down into SNE. If it is not deep enough could equal sleet. If deeper => Snow.
              Too shallow => rain and perhaps freezing rain at higher elevations.
              Or perhaps it doesn’t get down here far enough at all. Time will tell.

              My guess is it does. Look for some sort
              of Wintry precipitation tomorrow night.

  23. 12Z NAM is cooking. Sure looks like some snow/sleet tomorrow afternoon.
    Not out far enough for tomorrow night.

  24. Just reporting results of 12Z NAM.

    12Z NAM snow map ending Thursday morning at which time it is simply too warm
    aloft and probably at the surface as well.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2015040712/USA_ASNOWI24_sfc_051.gif

    At juiciest

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015040712&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=039

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015040712&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=042

    This is way too close for comfort. Could go either way.
    We are awfully close!

    A little wobble to the North and we get only rain.
    A little wobble to the South and we could pick up 1/2 foot of snow.

    As depicted, Boston would get about an inch of snow/sleet. YUCK!

    GFS probably wants no part of this. We shall see.

      1. Its been too close for comfort but that’s as close as we get in terms of meaningful snow πŸ˜€

  25. Remember to put your headlights on while driving in the rain. New law goes into effect today … $5 fine when you get pulled over (and then $100’s in premium increases form your insurer).

    1. This is LONG overdue in my opinion. Having driven for many years in Europe where in some countries (Denmark) lights are mandatory at all times, I have never understood why some drivers here use their lights so sparingly. I believe that when it’s raining, snowing, or gray outside lights (NOT high beams!) should be mandatory. Just common sense.

      1. I agree it is past due and it has been a law in many states for a number of years. Problem is I now have to figure out how my headlights work. I just leave them on auto all of the time so am not used to actually turning them on and off.

  26. Home from Poland and Paris. I just have to say, my goodness do those folks know how to live. My new life goal is to live in Paris. Just…wow.

    Weather was sunny there, for the most party. We did have a few inches of snow in Poland, which was exciting.

    Glad to be home – can’t wait for the doldrums of Spring to be over. Just not my favorite weather.

    2. Paris is … Wow! From my first encounter in April 1981 to my most recent in January 2012, no other city anywhere excites me as much as Paris. New York comes close, but Paris remains at the top of my list.

      Welcome home to a world-class city in its own right – Boston. Less exciting and cosmopolitan, but more livable than Paris, in my opinion.

      1. Agreed (although I think I could manage living in Paris!!!)

        I’ve never had an emotional reaction driving into a city like I did Paris. It took my breath away. And I cried when we left. Unbelievable. How about a flat in Boston, and a flat in Paris??? No?! πŸ˜€

        1. Indeed. I still cry when I enter and leave Paris.

          Closer to home I love visiting Quebec City and Montreal. Montreal’s got a little bit of Parisian energy. Quebec City, although provincial, is so French and reminds me of a very small miniature version of Paris.

    3. Welcome home. Sounds as if you had a spectacular trip. Mac just sighed. His parents lived in Amiens for a few years. He loves France although Rome is where he calls home πŸ™‚

  28. Sharp N/S gradient, but 12Z RGEM is on board for Snow in the Boston Area, but
    A slight wobble and nothing or MORE depending on the wobble. Not much margin
    for error here. We’ll just have to wait and see.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015040712/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015040712/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015040712/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png

    I presume that pink zone depicted on this is Sleet. Not sure. Looking at 850mb chart,
    looks like it supports snow, but I don’t know about other levels. Plus there may
    be some boundary layer issues, so it could actually be a mix of snow and rain.

    Hard to tell. We’ll know more as we get closer.

    beginning to look more and more like it will get White tomorrow from Boston
    Northward.

  29. Some serious snow north of Boston this week. Not sure about the city itself. We shall see. It’s cold outside, though. Yesterday evening felt really cold. I know it was upper 30s and that in itself is not cold, but the chill in the air was palpable. Still haven’t seen a bee. Usually, I see them by now. In fact, often by mid March. They usually wait until the threat of severe frost is gone. I actually think that threat is gone. But who knows.

  30. Vicki, I hope Mac is doing well. You mentioned his chemo nurse the other day. I forgot to ask you how he’s faring.

    1. Thanks, Joshua, for asking πŸ™‚ He had a bit of a setback but on Easter one of the things causing him severe pain was pain free!! I’m not sure I could be half as positive as he has been throughout. I know he’s my husband and I’m slightly prejudiced, but he is amazing.

  32. Hmm, police cars must be exempt from the new wipers on lights on driving law. Passed 2 cops on my way home from work and neither had lights on but had wipers on for the light rain that had begun to fall. Noticed about 75% of other cars didn’t have lights on either.

    1. We got some sort of grant (haven’t had time to look into it) to finally hire some more officers. Framingham has them positioned at every bad corner and along roads everywhere to ticket. I have a feeling they will not be lenient.

  34. Keep in mind that snowmap and the earlier ones that OS posted have 10:1 ratios. With marginal temps, I doubt we would see that so these accumulations are likely on the high side.

  35. These could be the final snowfall accumulation links being posted here on the blog till November. I love the snow but once April comes I am ready for nice spring days like yesterday and I can’t wait to start tracking thunderstorms in a few months when were posting model runs for Lift CAPE and EHI Values.

  36. Look at the dewpoints in Northern Maine. 0 to 10F !!

    Well, its kind of walking a fine line getting this all to come together.

    If some of that dry air can get advected in while the high reaches its strongest influence the next few days …… without at the same time, suppressing the moisture southward, the small overlap region of precip and where the temp can wet bulb may have a chance at frozen precip.

    Good luck with 100% confidence figuring out where that’s going to be. Evidently, a few models thing its a NW to SE line in southern VT, NH, ME and into northern and north-central Mass.

    1. Unbelievably cold in Northern Maine. It’s been that way for awhile. Sunny and upper 20s/low 30s with temps dipping at night into single digits and even below that in some cases (Van Buren, Maine). It’s winter’s last gasp, but it’s got some air in it.

  37. Regarding Mark’s Post:

    Keep in mind that snow map and the earlier ones that OS posted have 10:1 ratios. With marginal temps, I doubt we would see that so these accumulations are likely on the high side.

    The Tropical Tidbits maps were based on 10:1, however, the instant weather maps
    were based on the Kuchera Method and clearly showed much less snow, which is exactly to your point.

    I honestly believe that the correct amounts lie in between them both.

    We shall see.

  38. Word of advice from the meteorological community: Cut model precip. down by a little bit and make it less widespread. Cut snow forecast amounts by approximately 50%.

      2. It depends on where you consider “our area” to be.

        WHW covers southern NH and northern MA as well as Charlie’s home town.

        1. One of my fairly accurate colleagues is in that camp. I’m a little lower in my current thoughts but can’t rule that out.

          But once again people will see the 1-3 and automatically think Eric is calling for 3 inches on Pavement. Oh well. Some times you just can’t teach people how to understand information. πŸ˜›

          1. Nope. Never going to happen.

            So you think it doesn’t quite get this far South?

            Will be interesting to watch regardless.

            1. If we get enough precip. intensity, it will flip to snow and the longer it goes the more snow will fall. The problem is, we may never get all that much precipitation. I think we may be looking at some significant model error.

  39. This should come is no real surprise, but you can pretty much say goodbye to any shot of a really significant warm-up next week. The upper level pattern supports it. The surface pattern will not support it. And the ocean will be having even more of a say.

    And before anybody infers incorrectly, no I’m not calling for cold air and snowstorms. That pattern is long gone. I’m talking about fairly typical Spring weather in the coastal Northeast.

    1. Don’t you mean Atlantic Canada? It’s been like that All Winter, why change now??? πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

  41. Is it possible we see a little Wintry mix later tonight before this 1st impulse is done?

  42. As Alisonrod noted, half of nothing = nothing. True.

    But, half of any amount, however infinitesimal, is something. So, when TK says cut forecast amounts in half, Boston should get half of a coating.

    1. SO I guess it will be a Spring Coating as opposed to a Winter coating???

      All kidding aside, I smell a rat? We shall see.

    1. OS. I’m ready to talk to you today. Our area as in the Greater Boston area will not see more than a coating if anything at all Wed-Thurs. πŸ˜€

      1. You weren’t ready prior to today? πŸ˜€

        You “could” be correct. I can’t deny that, but I sense that
        the cold air will drain in sufficiently to give the Boston
        area, including Westwood, an inch or 2 of snow/sleet. πŸ˜€

        Could I be wrong? OF course. We shall see.

        1. Well perhaps I should recant already.

          Although it is the 18Z run, the 18Z NAM looks to
          keep the colder air (aloft at least) farther North, precluding much if any snow here.

          So, Arod, you can do your dance now. πŸ˜€

          1. Actually, last week I said we were finished with accumulating snow.

            However, I don’t know how to dance πŸ˜€

    2. OS – it is a cold rain that is for sure.

      Thanks for your links. This is fun to watch weather it turns into something or no πŸ˜‰

      1. Agree Vicki. Although OS can be a bit of a model hugger IMHO, I do appreciate the information he puts forth as well as his insights.

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          πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ πŸ‘Ώ
          πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ πŸ‘Ώ
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          πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ πŸ‘Ώ
          πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ πŸ‘Ώ
          πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ πŸ‘Ώ
          πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ πŸ‘Ώ
          πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ πŸ‘Ώ
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          πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ πŸ‘Ώ

          2. Respectfully, yes, I think you lend a lot of credence to models. Wouldn’t your comment at 4:22 pm indicate this? Again, we agree to disagree but that is my observation. You are very knowledgeable nevertheless.

        4. Ok I calmed down a bit before posting.

          Arod. OS posts the models for us to see and for us to learn. Sharing links does not equate to model hugger or anything else. He adds some verbiage to the posts which is his opinion. Sharing an opinion is something that should never be criticized. I have always enjoyed input from Old Salty and can tell you in more than one occasion he has caught a development before the professionals.

          2. Ugh. Here we go with moderators again. Check in your right to critque at the homepage.

    3. Was maybe some wet flakes or sleet. I had a couple splatter on my windshield on the way home.

  44. TK. So when you refer to next week, do you feel we see 60+ for at least two days next week? It sure looks that way beginning as early as this Friday.

    1. 60+ for at least 2 days (possibly more) is going down, especially for inland locations. Sadly coastal locations will be a lot cooler most of the week. Ocean temp is 38 degrees. Just can’t see the coast warming up much. Strong winds will only hold back the sea breeze.

        1. It still has to happen to be a great call, with all due respect. There is a chance it does not. SE wind may be a problem Monday at least.

  45. I want a crystal ball….please.

    Meanwhile, do running lights count as headlights or do they have to be the white lights?

    1. I am not sure about that one Vicki. I was just glad I found a setting on my van that allows you to set the headlights to come on while the wipers are in use. Very convenient for someone like me that is always on the go and would most likely forget to turn them on. πŸ™‚

  46. I don’t think OS is a model hugger. OS posts a lot of model information because he enjoys following and analyzing them. The only hugging he does of models is because he loves them, like prized possessions. πŸ˜€ At least that’s my take on it.

    To answer questions asked of me above:

    I can buy 60+ away from coastal influence Monday but that may be a bit premature. There is about a 50/50 shot that the overall gradient is going to set up so that the winds are SE over almost the entire region. If that happens and they are strong enough, forget 60s. Tuesday, I think things evolve a bit more slowly than modeled, and with more of a south to southwest wind then 60+ becomes more reachable for more areas, but again not for areas that a south and southwest wind comes off water, and that includes a fairly large area around here.

    60+ this Friday? We’ll have to get quite lucky.

    arod: I still want to know who β€œwe” are. All of the WHW forecast area? Southern NH? The city of Boston? Charlie’s house? Cape Cod and the Islands? Elaborate please. πŸ˜€

      1. Well Harvey has up to 2 inches of snow forecast for “us”, so you best have a talk with him. πŸ˜€

        1. Harvey is not Mother Nature but I will be sure to consult her if that happens πŸ˜€

      2. I was wondering the same and not challenging but curious. I don’t know how far the greater Boston area extends. Is Framingham part of it? Watertown? Woburn? Braintree I would guess is.

        Having grown up in Belmont, I figured the world revolved around that so you see what you are working with here πŸ™‚

  47. Some of the heavier precip has made it into Marshfield.

    No sleet, but huge raindrops.

    Raw, cold, upper 30s.

  49. The spam checker is having issues, so some comments are going into moderation. This problem has been occurring off and on and usually clears itself up eventually.

  50. Vicki, regarding your question about daytime running lights. The law states headlights AND tail lights. Cars with daytime running lights usually don’t activate the tail lights regardless on the headlight lamps. Lights need to be fully on.

    1. Cops are being very forgiving for the first day of this law. On my way home it was definitely raining steadily and only about 50% of cars had lights on. Passed by 3 cop cars, 1 in Walpole and 2 in sharon and they didn’t stop a single car.

      1. I’m going to struggle to remember that new law. One of our cars, the lights are on regardless and because I use it enough, when I switch over to the older truck that doesnt, I know I wont remember.

        1. That is my problem too Tom. I just let the car decide if I need lights and today discovered that means my running lights are on all of the time but headlights don’t come on until dusk. I may remember to turn them on. I won’t remember to turn them off

  52. I’m guessing Burlington, VT isnt the best ob, for this scenario, to track the lowering dewpoints, but the dewpoint has dropped there to 18F.

    I’m guessing Portland, ME …. Portsmouth, NH ….. Beverly, MA are better obs to watch.

  53. Sometimes it’s a shame that media has to go out 7 days and put exact #’s on the screen. There are too many people that saw 60, 66, and 68 on their screens for Monday that are going to be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than that and wonder why they “got it wrong”.

    1. Not so sure of that unless you reside along the south coast or immediate shoreline. With the strong April sun it can be 10-20 degrees warmer a few miles away from the water unless winds are intense. We shall see πŸ˜€

      1. Well specifically I am referring to those coastal residents. But with Monday being…oh…6 days away, this is not high confidence area when it comes to forecasting wind direction and specific temperatures in coastal and nearby inland New England.

        If someone is confident this far out, it’s a complete ego-infused lie. I used to go to school with met students like this. None of them made it in the field.

  54. This feedback is meant to focus on one blogger and I sincerely hope its not used to read into anyone else, because I’d like to think I’ve built a reputation here as being respectful to all.

    While I read everyone’s comments, I usually gravitate at some point towards OS’ comments. He’s made me aware of models that I didnt even know existed. His links are my daily weather briefing. I cant say enough how much I appreciate what he adds to the weather dialogue here and I look forward to seeing what he is thinking about a given scenario.

    As for analysis and interpretation, I dont recall the specific date, but he was about a half hour ahead in identifying the thunderstorm cell having rotation that produced the Revere tornado. Thats one of many examples I can think of. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

    Look forward to continue seeing all your great posts OS !

    1. I wonder who that blogger is, hmmmm…Lol. No one said we didn’t enjoy his posts or that he wasn’t insightful Tom πŸ˜€

    2. Tom nice….

      There was another time as well when OS was still on BZ that he saw rotation and I had my kids who were headed to the area turn around and head back here. OS saw it before the TV mets did and he was right.

  55. TK – I gather from your post above that you disagree with Harvey’s widespread T-2″ amounts…or am I misunderstanding the conversation? I assume that dynamic cooling will be the big player for tomorrow night, correct?

    1. No I don’t disagree at all. I feel at the moment that the T will be more prevalent than the 2. BUT, I have had a couple conversations with a colleague today and it can be argued that if we get a little more precipitation than is being forecast by some computers, that over 2 inches could fall and be quite widespread. I am not forecasting this because at the moment I do not believe it will take place like that. I’m in the “less precip.” camp at the moment.

      1. Thanks TK. Harvey believes the T will be more prevalent as well especially near Boston and the Pike. It will be interesting if there will be more snow than expected tomorrow night. Personally I would like to see an “even” 111.0 inches for Logan’s final total for the season. πŸ˜‰

        1. About 3 weeks ago I joked on the blog their final total would be 111.1. πŸ˜€

  56. Vicki’s river report….just warning ahead

    Although the Subury river along Pelham Island road is the first place that typically floods, Landham road runs south from Rt 20 along the Sudbury Wayland line toward framingham. I have never seen it flood in the 30+ years I’ve been here. Driving down the road yesterday I wss surprised how close the water is to the road.

    The Charles in Holliston which flooded several years ago over 16 isn’t as high. The west river in Uxbridge is high but not like the Sudbury.

    1. The Charles in Holliston? on 16??
      Are you thinking of Sherborn?
      Can you tell me exactly where? To my knowledge, not aware of
      the Charles touching Holliston. Learn me some.

      It starts in Hopkinton, then Milford, Bellingham, Franklin, Medway, Norfolk,
      Millis, Medfield, SHerborn, Natick, Dover, Needham, Dedham, Boston w. Roxbury, Needham again, newton, Wellesley, Waltham, Watertown, Brighton, Cambridge, Boston.

      1. Hmmm perhaps not Charles although I thought it was. It is referred to as the old swamp. Literally just before Milford line and backing up to Adams street holliston

      2. My Bad. A portion of Holliston After Hopkinton and before Milford. I should NEVER doiubt you. Forgive me.

        1. Are you kidding. I was doubting myself. That area is full of brooks and underground water. We boarded horses on Adams St there for years. But I just assumed it was Charles. I have seen an old map as I said which referred To that area as a swamp. I do love old maps

  57. Not that it implies moisture will be around ….

    But the dewpoint is down to 34F at Logan and 32F in Beverly.

  58. Greetings one and all.

    I just had a chance to view the 18Z RGEM. I regard the RGEM model quite highly
    as it is a decent short range model (out to 48 hours). It is decent in that it’s cousin,
    the medium range CMC has been chicken crap most of the Winter.

    I temper the following with it is still and 18Z run. But based on the 18Z NAM and the 18Z RGEM, it looks like Arod may be correct after all. We’ll hold off official congrats
    until these verify.

    But here is the RGEM snow map. HUGE difference over the 12Z run.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015040718/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

    Then there is the GFS which still has a little snow

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015040718/gfs_asnow_neus_10.png

    2. FWIW, the Euro calls for an inch or 2, even for Boston.

      SO gather your darts and place each model on the wall and fire away.
      Which ever one you hit, is your forecast.

      It’s called DARTCASTING! Enjoy! πŸ˜€

      1. We actually made a weather dart board in the weather lab at U Lowell back in the 1980s. πŸ˜€

        1. Me Too. I’d just make holes in the wall. Oh and I throw them awfully hard and I mean Awfully hard!!! I don’t do
          the “darty”, “danty” throw. I wind up like I’m throwing a heater and then proceed to do so.

          I once buried one in a regulation dart board that
          we couldn’t get out. πŸ˜€

    3. Seriously though OS. No offense meant. I do enjoy your preparedness and thoughts on pending events.

      1. No offense taken. No worries.

        I just don’t agree with you and coastal that I am a model hugger.
        I usually present them all or most of them. I might wish for one.
        OR I might lean towards one or another for whatever reason.

        BUT, if in the end, IF you or anyone else believes I am a model hugger, then so be it. Nothing I can do about that.

        Enjoy.

        2. I just got this image of you working in a weather place when the maps would print out on difax paper (giant rolls of crunchy paper that was wet at first then had to dry) and you’d see the model printing out and grab the roll and hug it after it printed. πŸ˜€

          BTW you’d have hated how SLOWLY those things printed…………………………

          1. Good ole Di-Fax. Yes I’m familiar with that.

            I wish I had access to all of this stuff when I was growing up. I would have never left the house.
            I’d be glued to my computer with occasionally glances out of the window.

            Did I ever to you all that in High school with my part time earnings I purchased wind equipment at Lafayette Electronics (like a Radio Shack).
            I installed in on top of our TV antenna. Nice location, except for 3 pines trees blocking the wind flow. No problem. I grabbed a saw, climbed those trees, and sawed off the top 20 feet of each of them! Equipment worked well after that. Oh And I dragged the tops into a field behind out house. No one ever said a word to me about it.

        3. OS for the record I used to be really, really good at darts. I can practice virtually also if anyone wants to call you a model hugger πŸ˜‰

      1. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015040718/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015040718/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015040718/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12.png

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015040718/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13.png

        You be the judge. Sure looks like it wants to go NORTH young man Go NORTH. πŸ˜€

  59. Looks like a pattern change starting Friday, many days around 60+ degrees, granted with some rain, but that’s fine πŸ™‚

    1. For the first time, I actually concur with you Charlie. However, there will be some days stuck in the 50s as well.

    1. It was Weather Wiz. Here is the final list I think.

      WeatherWiz 100.1
      Old Salty 94.6
      Cat966G 70.0
      Tjammer 67.6
      John 67.5
      Shotime 62.2
      Hadi 56.8
      North 56.7
      bearlb67 56.0
      Haterain 54.0
      Philip 46.8
      Vicki 43.7
      TK 41.1
      WxWatcher 40.4
      DS 38.4
      Emily 38.0
      Retrac 37.9
      JimmyJames 37.2
      Tom 36.5
      Matt 36.4
      Sue 33.5
      Scott77 31.2
      Charlie 29.3
      Keith 27.0
      Ace 22.2
      Joshua 19.2

      1. Must I be reminded of bad my prediction was: 19.2! That’s pathetic. Of course everyone knows I meant to say 119.2, but those darn typo’s.

  62. Reading “Windswept” (Mt. Wash. Observatory magazine) just now reminded me of May 1997. April 1 was not the only event in New England that spring. As many of us recall there were numerous spring storms, especially in May, with high winds and (often cold) rain in SNE and lots and lots of snow in the mountains above 4000 feet. 96 inches fell in May 1997 on the summit of Mt. Washington, in addition to several days of 115-125mph gusts. They could not open the Auto Road until June and even then it was hazardous with the melting snow and mud. Early to mid June that year saw a dramatic weather pattern shift from winter to summer with no spring in between.

      1. And my guess is if Memorial Day was MA ski weekend on Washington that not opening road was typical of the way it was

  63. I am decent at darts. But I won’t play for a beer. I’ll play for the agreement that we all act like adults πŸ˜€ You all in?

    I didn’t mind driving in the rain today. Usually I am not a fan of driving in it. But….well…let’s just say birds LOVE my car. Their version of darts I presume πŸ˜‰ And they have a lot of target practice…… So the rain and my windshield wipers are like a mini car wash (a much needed one).

      1. aΒ·dult
        Ι™ΛˆdΙ™lt,ˈadΛŒΙ™lt/Submit
        noun
        1.
        a person who is fully grown or developed.
        “children should be accompanied by an adult”
        a fully developed animal.
        LAW
        a person who has reached the age of majority.
        adjective
        adjective: adult
        1.
        (of a person or animal) fully grown or developed.
        “the adult inhabitants of the U.S”
        synonyms: mature, grown-up, fully grown, full-grown, fully developed, of age, of legal age

          1. Works for me as long as we add in adults are not perfect :). So a beer, manhattan and adulthood here we come

  64. Working on new blog. Have to do some significant analysis as the stakes are rather high tomorrow night. Most areas probably end up with not a whole lot of snow, but there may be a little surprise jackpot zone somewhere.

    I am going to try to have the blog done BEFORE the 11PM newscasts get on the air.

  65. I think wording in weather discussions is going downhill. Why use the term “Spring-like” temperatures if it IS Spring? Whatever the temperatures are, they are Spring temperatures, regardless of how far above or below average they are. This is almost as bad as my #1 pet peeve: “blizzard-like”. No. You either have blizzard conditions, or you do not. There are no “blizzard-like” conditions.

    1. Exactly what macs nurse said yesterday. Spring like could be used in another season but not in spring. Sort of like spring snow. Snow is snow. Who said winter has a monopoly.

  67. 0Z NAM back on for Snow/sleet accumulation.
    0Z RGEM is Not.
    GFS has some as well. Snow map not ready yet. πŸ˜€

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