Climbing Out

108 Comments

7:36AM

SUMMARY…
Quick discussion due to lack of time this morning. Still on cold side of boundary, drizzly and overcast today. A northward push of the boundary brings a chance of rain tonight and gets southeastern New England into milder air Friday, but still dominated by cloudiness and a rain shower threat ahead of a cold front. This front clears the region by early Saturday and turns the weather much nicer for the weekend. Cold pool of air aloft allows for some diurnal clouds Saturday. Sunday should be sunnier with high pressure overhead. High moves offshore early next week and allows it to warm, but coastal areas may be subject to ocean winds which would modify temperatures significantly there. Details to come as it gets closer. Disturbance arrives from the west by next Wednesday with a rain shower threat.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast. Drizzle and areas of fog mainly this morning. Highs around 40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady around 40 then rising toward 50. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to S overnight.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 55-60, cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 55.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 60.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s, cooler coastal areas.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 50. High 60.

108 thoughts on “Climbing Out”

  2. Thank you, TK!

    You have a gift for writing.

    I’m going to more or less retreat from the blog until late fall. I’ll make an occasional appearance here and there . I do like weather throughout the year, and follow the blog for that reason. It’s just not as exciting to me as winter.

    Final note before signing off: I agree with you on the NFL Draft. It’s a subjective opinion, but there is nothing short of watching grass grow that is more boring than the draft. Gruden makes it painful to watch, as every single player drafted is the next coming of Jim Thorpe. Typical Gruden comment on a 4th round pick: “This guy is something … at the combine he was running the 100 yard dash in I don’t know, 4 seconds or something, I mean, it’s just out of this world, and he works his tail off, you know, I’ve seen him in the gym, the biceps on this guy, they’re like bowling balls, I mean I’m telling you they can’t go wrong with this guy.”

  3. Thanks Tk. As Tom said cold and raw this morning ugh!!! I’ll be right behind you in Florida so keep it nice and warm for me lol.

  4. Thank you TK.

    Beautiful day today! Absolutely beautiful, that is if you a Northern Climate DUCK! 😀

  6. Good morning. Just a thought about the summer. Will this be a summer of warm frontal thunderstorms that traverse northwest to southeast? Have a great day all.

    1. Those can be potent storms especially overnight and early morning hours. Pattern may support these early Summer.

      1. Indeed.

        I remember one on a Saturday morning years ago when we
        still had our German Short Haired Pointer. I checked it on
        radar and it was a big blob of solid RED. The dog was shaking violently with each tremendous boom of thunder as the house
        shook as well. Then the dog let loose and vomited all over the place. It took the poor dog all day to calm down.
        It was a VICIOUS storm. Somewhere in the late 1990s or
        early 2000s as the dog passed in 2005.

          1. Probably was later. 1995 was the 1st year we had a computer and were online. Don’t think I was
            tuned into all of the radar sites then, therefore
            I think it was later. 😀

            Not to say something didn’t happen in July 1995 as well. 😀

  8. Thanks TK.
    Waking up to a bit of glaze on the trees. On this day back in 96 we were digging out from accumulating snow.
    Robert I think will have some good thunderstorm days this summer. If they traverse from northwest to southeast here in CT is when we get our strongest thunderstorms which is what happened back on July 10, 1989 when CT and MA were all affected by the Northeastern Tornado Outbreak. Had an F 1 tornado and knocked down the tree in the front yard that day but did not damage to the house. I was 5 at the time and hope that is the only tornado I experience. My mom has me beat with that and has experienced two.

  9. Several cars in the lot I am in this morning have snow on them. Wonder where they came from. 😉

    2. I’m still annoyed from it all TK. I love snow but after the middle of March, I hate it as much as I loved it. I have anger management issues when it comes to New England climate in most Spring seasons.

  10. Just read that WHDH (channel 7) may be facing felony charges for following jurors on the Hernandez trial.

      1. Agree it’s just not a professional station . Like they didn’t know what they were doing was wrong, could have been declared a mistrial .

      2. Nor am I surprised. And exactly why I keep saying to stop faulting Pete and JR or any of the mets on there because that is exactly what management does to its employees. Awful doesn’t begin to explain.

        1. And I will be absolutely shocked if anyone at the top is found to have blame. Someone will take the fall.

  11. Another active severe weather day looks to be shaping for parts of midwest and south.
    SPC now with some new labels for risk areas.
    See text is now replaced with marginal there is still slight risk but a new category enhanced risk which is just below moderate risk and high risk

  12. We had maybe 2-3″ of snow last night up in central NH. Looked very nice this morning. Not convinced it’s the last snow up here. It might be, but I think the pattern goes back to winter-like in 10 days or so, after some very springlike days ahead.

  13. Friend in Alton NH reports 3 inches of snow overnight. Widespread coating to 1 inch Merrimack Valley.

  14. Where’s everyone going, I thought it was a weather blog, why are people saying see u in dec? I’m not calling anyone a fraud but anyone that says you love all weather but then leave until dec, we’ll answer it yourself 🙂 enjoy the day, very busy with lots of outside work, temp is 41 degrees cloudy and blah, dislike very much 🙂 by the way like I’ve bern saying winter is over, Spring is here 🙂

  17. I’m not leaving until next Winter.
    I most likely will not be posting as often, but I’ll be around for sure.

    Wait until there is some sort of weather anomaly, like Record Heat or Cold, Rain or Wind or perhaps most interesting are the Severe Thunderstorms and tracking possible
    rotation etc. There will be something interesting even IF it is a sea breeze front
    captured on radar. 😀

    Oh did I ever say that today SUCKS!!!!!

    1. It sucks bigtime oldsalty, but things seem to be looking up starting the weekend. I think there will be record heat this summer. I doubt very much it will be as cool as last summer.

      1. To me no two summer’s are alike. We got off very easy last summer with not having long stretches of heat and
        humidity. Best of all able to save money on the electric bill not having to run the AC that much.
        As I said the other day you fans of 3 H weather I don’t think will be disappointed this summer.

  19. The thing is, people are usually busier during the nicer weather. We’re not stuck in the house like in the winter so there’s less time to spend on the blog. Its not so much a lack of interest in the warmer season weather as there’s still extremes to talk about, but there’s just more things taking up our time.

  20. I agree. I think a lot of people including myself are itching to get out and do some yard work, golf etc.
    When there is a thunderstorm day or a day or two prior to the blog will light up but not as much in the winter.
    I can’t wait to start posting model links for thunderstorms and tracking them.

    1. Did you say that with the express purpose of getting me going? 😀

      I’ll just respond by saying it is NOT particularly one of my favorite kind
      of April days. Mine would be:

      An April Snow Storm Day
      A nice April day, sunny and around 80.

      1. I also enjoy today’s weather but don’t want to get you going. It is just April to me…along with colder April and warmer April and everything in between.

        I can tell the schools are talking about this because seven year old grandson announced this am that there was snow on April 8 and followed it up by saying “Can you believe it …April 8 and snow”

        We had a long talk and I think he can set his teachers straight now 😉

        1. That’s OK Vicki.

          But neither you nor TK are going to make today’s
          type of weather one of my favorites, because it
          AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN!
          😆 👿 😈 👿 😈 🙄 ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 👿 😈 ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗
          🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄
          ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗

          1. I don’t have to get anyone going. They do that on their own. I just write a blog and add comments to it on occasion. 😀

  22. There is a nice lesson on the maps today, and it’s a very simple one.

    Take a look at the 500mb chart from 12z today. Based only on that you’d likely be forecasting fair weather and above average temperatures (60s), yet it’s in the upper 30s to lower 40s with a heavy overcast and drizzle. Why? The surface pressure pattern MATTERS. Positions of fronts MATTER. Time of year MATTERS. Anyone can guess and get lucky. It happens here quite often. But over the long run, that will never be a winning record.

    Applied meteorology.

  23. I really hope people don’t think a warm pattern is coming and here to stay… They will be greatly disappointed. The cool pool is coming back for the last week of April. Doesn’t look like I’m going to be able to bring the pattern change back with me from Florida. We’ll have to wait…

    3. Rather depressing post! Thx! Do remind us not to get too into the cool upcoming weather too much when it is here.

  24. Colorado State University issued their forecast for the 2015 hurricane season today (speaking of interesting summer weather). Although maybe not so interesting this year. 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane is there prediction. Could be one of the quietest seasons of the satellite era due to El Nino induced shear over the western Atlantic and cooler than normal waters in the eastern Atlantic. I do recall a comment from TK awhile back that he was thinking we could see a pattern that would favor Northeast hurricane impacts, but no storms to take advantage of them. That might be exactly what we get. I’d be wary though; the setup looks right for impacts here. Lots of warmer than normal water around the Bahamas, and that area tends not to be impacted by El Nino related shear. Many of our biggest storms originate down there. So it’ll be something to keep an eye on at least.

    1. They have an excellent record, but a couple recent shaky forecasts. I do agree with them this time. Should be one of the lowest. If I had to gamble: 6, 3, 1. El Nino, finally making an appearance, will be the major hindrance. Ironically we may eventually build a HHH pattern that cannot grab anything. That would be great news for the East Coast in general, but all it takes is one landfall in a quiet year. There is no example more perfect than the 1992 season…

      1. Notice how’s there’s still snow on the roof from last night. And this is on the south side of my property.

        1. I can see why you are frustrated. Such a long winter. By mid next week you will be greeted with warmer temps and you can kiss your snow covered yard good bye! 😀

        1. Thanks all. It is pretty out here. And not that far from Boston in reality. It’s just that it takes a while to melt the snow…..every year.

  26. I put away my shovel for the season this morning. 😀

    I will gradually put away winter clothing and wait until AFTER next week to put my winter coat in the dry cleaners just to be sure we stay in the warm pattern for good.

    I will gradually be posting less in the coming weeks, but not disappear by any means.

    As much as I don’t like HHH, if it keeps tropical activity away from the east coast and SNE, then I can accept it…the lesser of two evils, so to speak. 🙂

      2. I put my winter jacket away in December. Doesn’t mean temps didn’t call for jackets though 😉

  27. TK,

    You KNOW I Was not serious in anyway above, other than I truly do not
    like today’s kind of weather. I could care less if someone else likes it.

    I was just having some fun on an otherwise slow day on the blog. 😀 😀 😀

  28. NO CHANCE at 60 tomorrow. I may remove 50s from some areas too and keep them in the 40s. That warm front is going to have issues getting through here until quite late.

    NO 60s on Saturday. A cool breeze but mild air (relatively) with highs in the 50s.

    60-65 attainable Sunday away from a sea breeze. I thought earlier we’d have a land breeze but that part of the gradient will be Saturday night. Once high pressure moves overhead Sunday it opens the door for ocean wind once the land heats up enough, so some areas will end up in the lower 50s or even 40s in the afternoon.

    Monday, for now, still looks quite mild but I’m still not 100% convinced of a SW wind. Any S or SE tilt and take away the magnitude of the warming significantly.

    Tuesday looks like a mild day but again not going to get too sky high because a trough/front will be coming through early in the day and a small parcel of cooler air will be moving in but modifying at the same time.

    A little temp swing may occur from cool next Wed to warmer next Thu but then it looks like we may set up a few days of ocean flow and after that we may dig another trough in the Northeast with near to below normal temps.

    So, all in all the warm up looks fairly short-lived, and then it will be back to a bit of a waiting game.

    2. TK to clarify. When u say no 60s do you mean anywhere or just Logan. I need maps because when I hear 60 I think in certain areas but not all

        1. I can go to sleep happy.

          Although we can continue to in or out of Boston discussion tomorrow 🙂

  29. John to answer your question earlier… Staying at Art of Animation resort this time.

  30. Just watching TWC and there are some large, damaging tornadoes going on in the central and south-central US.

    Large wedge tornado in Illinois, I believe. Chaser had a front dash cam. Eventually came into a neighborhood that the tornado came through. Lots of damage, snapped trees, you name it.

    Hope the loss of life will be minimal.

    1. Rough night out there but well-forecast so I hope people were prepared. It’s been such a quiet stretch for severe weather for about 3 years but it looks like it’s starting to wake up.

      1. I’m glad to hear it was well forecasted …….as you say, hopefully folks were ready.

        I wonder if all parts of the mid-west require underground shelters or if thats a homeowner’s choice ………

  31. My son’s in NY covering the Yankees/Red Sox game, but he said Chicago was under a tornado watch all day. Terrible damage to the northwest in the Rochelle and Rockford area. Storms forecasted tomorrow for the mid-Atlantic region, southward.

  32. Nah. 60+ sunday through Thursday easily 5 miles away from the coast. Coastline even sees 60+ monday, tues and Thursday 😀

    2. So basically you made the assumption that I said nobody would get to 60 Monday through Thursday (didn’t include Sunday since I specifically mentioned 60-65 inland). It should be noted here that I did not specifically say that. If you want #’s, I can tell you that 60+ is possible Monday Tuesday and Thursday, and a little less possible Wednesday. I’m not convinced the coast warms all of those days. Also, Wednesday, we may get a short-lived push of cooler air from the NW. And that’s 6 days away, so who knows at this point. I’ve written down your prediction, even though it is essentially the same as mine.

      Pay attention. 😀

  33. Well for all those who might suffer from allergies, there will probably be a big jump up in the pollen count on Saturday. I am not sure that it get as high as 10, but it could be close. Keep an eye on it.

  34. The 00z GFS for school vacation week ……. awful.

    2 low pressure systems that would make perhaps 7 out of the 9 days less than pleasant.

    And the 2nd system looks chilly.

    Of course, its a week out just to the start of the vacation.

    99% of the year that would mean it should change.

    1. As soon as my kids are off on their own (in about 8-10 years), I’m outta here. This thought is what’s going to get me through the next 45+ days.

  35. We will be out too but probably well before that retrac, 8-10 yrs is a lot of suffering of winters and springs.

    Just fertilizing away, it’s terrible out, but you keep going no matter what at this point. Truck says 39 degrees, looking to head close to 60 by this afternoon. 🙂

    3. Should be in the upper 40s to near 50 by afternoon, mid to upper 50s briefly this evening.

  37. If it weren’t for our family and business operation, Ally and I would seek alternative shelter as well. At the very least, we likely will purchase a second home somewhere warm someday.

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