The Week Ahead

100 Comments

3:24AM

SUMMARY…
A strong southwesterly flow will transport the warmest air of the Spring so far into southeastern New England today. Again, as usual, a modifying effect off the cooler water will impact the South Coast. A cold front settles southward across the region early Tuesday and sits just south of the region as a disturbance moves along it. This will bring more cloudiness and the chance of showers. A second boundary will push down from the north Wednesday. This one will not have any moisture with it but may turn the wind a little more onshore on eastern coastal areas before the boundary weakens and lifts back to the north on Thursday. This will allow it to warm back up a little though not to the levels of today. I’m a little uncertain about how the Friday-Sunday period works out at this time, but for now I’ll lean toward the warmer scenario with a southwest flow to start then a shift to a more southeasterly flow later in the weekend with some cooling, and more cloudiness as a disturbance moves in from the west. The end of week and weekend are low confidence and very subject to change.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50s Cape Cod and Islands, 60s remainder of South Coast of MA/RI and Cape Ann MA, 70s to lower 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the upper 50s South Coast, 60s to lower 70s elsewhere. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Highs 58-68, coolest East Coast.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 50-58. Highs 60-72, coolest South Coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 52-60. Highs 62-72, coolest South Coast.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-60. Highs 65-75, coolest South Coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

100 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  4. Thanks TK !

    Ok, I wonder if these east coast ridges this early in May are ……..

    1) a sign of what is to come this summer with assistance from El Nino (rainy, mild, low 500 mb heights along the Gulf coast, while the northern tier is hot and under big 500 mb ridges) (upside down weather 🙂 )

    or

    2) a sign that its going to be a cool summer and we are seeing warmth now. It is uncanny to look back at a few cooler than average summers and usually, there was a stretch in springtime that was unusually warm.

    I have a suspicion, in this case, that it might be option #1.

    1. For me only I’m hoping for a hot summer as it was just not enough
      Of it last summer. The season is so short I would just rather it be hot.

    1. Thanks, Tom. I love watching the animation. Makes it so easy to see how weather comes together of a far larger scale than we tend to think exists in our own little part of the world.

      1. My pleasure.

        I like the big picture stuff too.

        Also, as the week moves along, this area has some potential to organize a bit and maybe affect the SE US coastline.

        I am home today with bronchitis, coughing away, so a little extra time to put into the weather. 🙂

        1. Feel better Tom . I left work at lunch time on Friday I was hit with flu like symptoms , luckily I was a lot better yesterday for traveling.

        2. Sorry to hear you are not feeling well. Glad to have you here but rest, rest, rest.

          1. Thank you both. I am kicking back, not doing much, so, that should help.

            Wasn’t sick all winter, so I was due, lol !

  7. Am I seeing that JR on channel 7 has an 88F for next Saturday ?

    If so, may be be correct !!!!

  8. Thanks TK!

    Have a great vacation John!!! Glad you are feeling better.

    Hope you feel better soon Tom!

  10. Drum roll ……

    Logan surpasses 70F, now 73F at 11am.

    The wind however came around a bit to 190 degrees. It will be interesting to see if Logan begins to level off tempwise the next few hrs.

      1. Feel better Tom! Let’s hope we see that 88 on Saturday though Im a bit concerned about the timing of a short wave approaching from the west.

      1. May be. Nice with no humidity. Clouds moving in some now. Not sure if that is temporary. Got steaks for the grill tonight. 🙂

  12. Bold prediction (that really may not be too bold)- Someone hits 90 this weekend. At least one day, maybe both. Classic spring “heat-wave”. Obviously won’t be an official one, but a great setup for abnormal early season warmth.

  16. Did anyone hear last nights baseball game wasn’t even a sellout, $9 a tix an hr before game lol, don’t tell me baseball has faded to a 2nd and even maybe a 3rd sport lol

    1. I actually heard on the radio yesterday baseball attendance for the first month of the season is the highest it’s been in 20 yrs. I will find the source.

    2. With the greatest team in human mankind here in NE and we even weren’t in the Top 10 TV markets for the draft. Unreal with the most amazing franchise known to the world. 🙂

  20. Well, here on Monday May 4 I am about to perform my FIRST lawn mowing of the season. Only 1 month later than Charlie said I’d need to do it. 😉

    Must have been due to the frozen tundra up here NW of the city. 😀

    1. Our neighbor has a lawn service and it showed up to mow his today. Not sure what it was mowing but it was soaking him for its time.

      1. Vicki I just think it depends on the lawns. I know over the weekend my neighborhood was all mowing. My front lawn I’m nervous about because I was looking at it saying when I get home next week it will probably be real high cause it could have received a quick cut by now.

          1. probably movingthe small sticks and stuff to give open area for grass seed maybe.

  21. Mowing went well, but was it DUSTY. That top soil is dry. Lawn looks decent given it hasn’t been properly cared for in several years. 😉

  22. You guys are funny, and that’s ok, it might be slightly down from last year but it was the 3rd highest draft ratings ever, please please please you sound silly if you think the NFL is down lol just an FYI, trust me the NFL TV ratings will not be down. I’ll tell you what continues to fade amongst kids, is watching baseball, kids will play baseball but it’s not translating once these kids grow up. At one time baseball was the dominate sport here, that is no longer the case. In America there are really 2 dominant sports, NFL and College football, and again the other sports not saying there bad, but there not in the same stratosphere. Off to work!! Enjoy the day folks 🙂
    http://deadline.com/2015/05/nfl-draft-ratings-espn-down-viewership-1201419142/

  23. Good news: 61º at 5:30 am and 14:13 of daylight today!
    Not so good news: nearly 2.75″ below average of precip since January 1. Taunton River really low for this time of year.

    Anyone see any substantial relief coming?

    Feliz Cinco de Mayo!!!!

    1. Oddly and a surprise to me is the sudbury river is still pretty swollen. I say that knowing that it can change quickly in a matter of days. I am also worried about the lack of rain and persistent “drought”

  25. Charlie I totally agree nothing even comes close to football. Clearly everyone knows that here just busting your chops about the draft.

  27. I cant believe (in a good way) that Logan, overnight, was 67F for its low temperature.

    The rain showers have helped drop the temp to 64F, but have the dewpoint up to 56F.

    A rain shower is moving through here as I type.

  28. Charlie, no argument here that the NFL and football in general is king in the US today. But let’s not ignore history either. American football wasn’t always popular. Back in the 60’s, 70’s, and even into the 80’s it struggled to find it’s way into mainstream sports. Much like weather, sports popularity can be cyclical. I would also argue football isn’t king in all markets. St. Louis for example is and always will be a baseball town.

  29. Hmmm Persistent clouds this morning and it was a little wet around 8AM.

    Eric mentioned the possibility of some spots reaching 90 this weekend.

    HOPE NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Around 80 would be perfect.

  31. I’m really hoping the showers quit by the afternoon and it gets up into the 70’s. First night of company golf league tonight (delayed by 2 weeks). I didn’t bring a jacket or umbrella 🙁

  32. In the way out there but I need something to track. A sign of the warm weather season when were posting links for thunderstorm potential. 6z run of GFS latching on to that there could be enough CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and Lift for some thunderstorm development Sunday
    CAPE
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015050506&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=135

    Lift
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015050506&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=135

  33. 5 days away but there is some potential for a massive temp fall via back door front late weekend.

    2. It sure does look like that way, into early next week.

      Even though the high is somewhat north into Canada, I cant imagine the weight of the colder, dense air in combination with the cold ocean wont eventually allow the cooler air to drain down into eastern New England.

    1. I think allergies are bad. If I have any, they are mild. Over the weekend I finally started taking Allegra and it made a difference. Two grandkids either have allergies or colds.

      Oddly, enough I never thought April was cold for April.

    1. JJ 12Z parameters look much more significant for Sunday, especially around
      21Z.

    1. 40s *(@!#&*(!@#&*&!@*#&!*@&#*&!@*(#&*!@&#*&!@*#&*(!@#^!&*(@#^!@(#*&!*@&#*&!@*(#&*(!@#&* 😈 👿 😈

  39. Old Salty I like the idea the 12z GFS has picking up on the stable air over south shore Cape and Islands and thunderstorms hate stable. That is there kryptonite. Plenty of time to watch this but at this early stage of the game there are some ingredients there for thunderstorm development for Sunday.

  41. The EURO historically performs better than the GFS in terms of blocking patterns. I do not believe it gets that cold for that long here next week. However, I am confident that it cool off significantly next Monday albeit much more short lived.

    1. I am relieved that the Euro does not support the brutal cold and length of Cold the GFS does, however, DT appears worried about it, so that concerns me.

      PLUS TK seems worried as well.

      That should give anyone pause.

      Let’s hope for the best. 😀

      1. It’s out there as a possibility. Thats for certain but I think prolonged temps in the 40s and 50s are over.

        1. As long as that facuckta ocean is cold
          It is on the table. Don’t kid yourself.

    1. After a record warm April water temperatures
      Are near 80 degrees already down in that
      Area.

      1. Oh ….. 80F ……

        I actually got to see what that was like last summer on the southern parts of the Outer Banks, very nice !!

        We also saw what 88F to nearly 90F water was like in Pamlico Sound and that was kind of unpleasant, to say the least.

  44. Is there a popup shower/thundershower potential just inland from the coast the next 1-3 hrs.

    I havent looked over any instability parameters, but, I do know there are many convergence/seabreeze boundaries around and there is some modest moisture available (some low 50F dewpoints) and I can see some decent cumulus clouds to my west, away from this weak seabreeze.

    1. Tom could be. Im in w. Roxbury
      About 8 or 9 miles from airport.
      Its 80 plus here. 65 with East wind at
      20 mph at airport.

      1. Seeing something similar here …. Lost 5F in a bit more than a mile as I headed closer to the ocean.

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