Quick Update

149 Comments

7:30AM

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle with isolated showers in the morning. Variably cloudy with scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. Any thunderstorms may be strong, especially interior areas. Highs ranging from 65-70 Cape Cod to 80-85 interior areas. Wind light SE to S early, then SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with scattered showers early. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows in the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs in the 60s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-50. Highs in the 60s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs 60s coast, 70-75 inland.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers at night. Lows in the 50s. Highs 65-75, coolest coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs 65-75.

149 thoughts on “Quick Update”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Re: Thunderstorms: From the SPC

    …NEW ENGLAND…
    AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAYAS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN APPALACHIANMTNS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES…A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ISFORECAST TO BE IN PLACE BY MIDDAY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. CONVECTION COULD INITIATE IN SRN NEW ENGLAND AS THE CORE OF A 70 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET PASSES BY. MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH MULTICELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1431432369649

      1. Admittedly, I have posted the most robust model. 😀

        Nam Cape

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=CAPE&hh2=015&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=012

        GFS Cape

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=CAPE&hh2=015&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=012

        Btw, I would trust the higher resolution models this close
        to event time much more so than the longer range lower resolution models.

        1. Btw, HRRR seems to support the more robust solution.
          It’s not quite far enough out. Something going on at that
          site. I couldn’t even select the previous run.

          We shall see.

    1. Don’t you mean WINTER-LIKE?????

      Eric has a 56 for a high temperature on Saturday. That is LUDICROUS!!!!!!!!

    1. Local NWS really downplaying this. They don’t seem concerned at all.
      So, I dunno.

      All I can say is that history has shown when the SREF significant tornado
      ingredients shows something, more often than not, something happens.

      I just don’t like seeing that.

      Also, many times when the NWS puts us in a 2% chance of tornadoes,
      one occurs somewhere in our area, usually weak (F0 or F1), but still there.

      We’ll see IF the atmosphere destabilizes enough and in time.

      IF not, no worries at all.

  7. TK,

    In your discussion you indicated that some storms may be strong today.
    What are your thoughts now? The same? less of a threat? More of a threat?

    Do all of the parameters take into account a still chilly ocean to our South?
    The marine influence kills storms in July and August, what will it do in May?

    It should protect at least East and South coastal areas, no?

    Your thoughts?

    1. Will all come down to how much sun and the exact wind direction. It’s cold aloft which will help storms.

      1. Always the case, isn’t it?

        Plenty of sun here, but I do not know wind direction or temperature out there. I am going out for a couple of hours.

  9. WBZ | CBS Boston
    2 mins ·
    Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey said she wishes the NFL would spend a tenth of the time on domestic violence and sexual assault problems in the league that they did on deflated footballs.
    Read more and listen to report: http://cbsloc.al/1EAcdfz

    2. Saw that. Good for her and puts things in perspective….for those interested in perspective that is 😉

      1. NFL = NEANDERTHAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE

        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

  10. 12Z NAM

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=009&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=009&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

    LIFTED INDEX

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=009&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=009&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=009&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=009&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

  11. CMC

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=006&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=006&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=LI&hh=006&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=006&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=006&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=006&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

    1. Funny, 6Z NAM had severe T-storm threat but no tornado threat.
      6Z CMC had a tornado threat.

      12Z NAM now has a tornado threat.
      12Z CMC now has Severe-Tstorm threat but has dropped tornado threat.

      1. It was a hot weekend there in the low 90s. Was realy a top 10 9 days weather wise .

  13. Out in Copley square. VERY warm.
    Very humid.
    Quite sunny. Wind from sw.

    Stupid airport 61 wind east at noon.

  18. Will see what we get for thunderstorms if any with the front coming through which will end this summer preview.
    SPC 2% tornado 5% hail and wind

    1. You have a much better chance there than we do in Eastern sections.
      But we shall see. One never knows.

  20. I agree with there 2% tornado chance given what some of the models are showing with EHI values.
    I am still thinking non severe storms but storms that COULD contain small hail and gusty winds.

    1. Interesting discussion. Note: ONLY 20% chance of watch issuance, which
      tells me any storms that develop “should” fall short of Severe. Will have to be watched to make sure, however.

  21. Thanks tk 🙂 geez the last week + has felt like mid summer, 80’s everyday, and even 89 degrees one day, currently 85 degrees 🙂

  23. Thanks, TK.

    It is currently 81 degrees here in Sudbury. It has been mainly cloudy but there have been some big breaks of bright sun. Wind picked up about an hour ago so unless the sun stays out long it’s not too bad out. But the humidity is definitely there – a taste of summer. Clouds are dark and thicker here, too.

  25. It is going to feel a lot better once this front comes through.
    Just because no watch is issued does not mean you can’t get strong to locally severe storms.

    1. True, however it is unlikely. We should, however, continue to watch and
      always be prepared just in case.

  27. Fairly brisk wind here….In low teens. Temp up a degree to 83 but DP down to 58. Still solid clouds.

  28. Logan is an absolute JOKE!!!

    Still only 68 there!!!

    My office can’t be more than 2 or 3 miles from the airport and it is in the 80s here.
    INSANITY!!!

  29. OS I came here to read your post about Logan being a joke and BINGO! So funny. 😀

    I watched them go from 71 to 62 to 68. Typical since the gradient is not all that strong. Warm and a little humid here in the NW ‘burbs.

    The line of showers/storms to the W is now producing occasional CG lightning.

    1. Happy to accommodate. 😆
      But, you what? It is a joke weatherwize. The City’s weather records should NEVER be maintained there! NEVER. I vote for the Boston Common OR
      the Public Garden OR Copley Square.

      It is a JOKE!

    1. Yup. I thought there would be a tail to them with storms building to the
      S&W as well. Apparently not. Our first Thunderstorm JIP JOB. 😀

      One never knows. Something could still pop as things move a little closer.
      Probably not, but it’s possible.

      1. No sooner did I finish writing the above when a storm has
        popped up SE of Springfield. Perhaps it will go poof or perhaps
        it will really develop? We shall see. 😀

    1. To me the more I read the more I understand ……that this is beyond belief. It is an exceptional article. Thanks OS

      And sun our here finally. Still windy. My mood this week would suit a good storm 🙂

    2. Fantastic information.
      #3 sticks out LOUDLY. I don’t know why so many people think the Patriots did not cooperate and that is why they are being punished. THEY COOPERATED FULLY. They did everything they were asked.

      1. Agree. #8 also which many commenters seem to miss. Why did the team lost draft picks. Why did the team get leveled with the biggest fine in the history of the game. Btw rules say 25,000 for first time ball tampering.

  32. Harvey and Eric have widespread showers and quite cool (50s-low 60s) for Saturday but Pete has just a chance of a thunderstorm/humid with temps well into the 80s.

    I know we could use the rain but I hope Pete’s forecast verifies. I have outdoor plans Saturday. Which do you like at this time TK?

  33. Scary thought…The Pats have the potential to be 0-5 after Brady’s debut at Indy. I really hope he can get the suspension reduced in half. We will see what happens. 🙁

    OS…Prior to 1936 all Boston wx observations were recorded at Boston Common. I don’t know why they were changed to the Airport. Our federal government (NWS) “at work” I suspect. 😉

    1. G10 has tremendous potential.

      I’d be curious to know why they moved to logan. Are most at airports.

      2. I believe most obs. are recorded at airports Vicki, but I believe NYC obs. are actually recorded in Central Park…not 100% sure though.

    1. Some small cells trying to fire on the outflow boundary from the stuff that passed north of Boston.

  35. NO BRADY = NO BANNER?? 😀

    Or will the NFL force the Patriots to have a ceremony on opening night?

  36. Here’s the Marshfield temps the last day or so …..

    Yesterday at 10:35am : 82F ….. By 4:55 pm, it was : 52F …..

    Then today …… : 52F at 8:15 am …….. but by …….3:35pm, it was 84F with a dp of 66F

    1. Sorry had to look. Unbelievable!!!!!!

      Bedford, Hanscom Field, MA
      (KBED) 42.46833N 71.29444W
      2 Day History

      Light Snow
      °F
      Last Updated: May 12 2015, 5:56 pm EDT
      Tue, 12 May 2015 17:56:00 -0400
      Weather: Light Snow
      Wind: West at 12.7 MPH (11 KT)
      Visibility: 9.00 miles
      Altimeter: 29.65 in Hg
      Latest Raw Observation

  39. Any new thoughts for Saturday TK? I posted the question above @ 5:44 pm…TV mets do not agree as usual. 😉

  40. Man, those storms on the South Shore fired fast; I thought the radar was broken for a second. Right on that boundary.

  42. Decent thunderstorms just south of Boston and not too far north of us.

    Hearing the thunder and seeing impressive cumulus clouds to our north.

    Lime is struggling to settle south, storms are mostly moving west to east.

  43. The line on the South Shore was like INSTANTANEOUS.
    Right on the outflow boundary from the storms to the north earlier.

      1. I was following the boundary on radar wondering if it would fire something off. It usually does in that area.

        It’s interesting… earlier Pete B. mentioned on the air that someone had written to him asking why the N Shore always gets hit and the S Shore gets missed. I completely disagree with that. It may be that parts of the S Shore get missed several times by chance, as can happen anywhere, but I think on average, the S Shore gets more frequent activity than the N Shore. At the very least it’s equal.

        1. I agree.

          Perhaps the writer is thinking of the cold front scenarios when the wind is strong SW and sometimes in those instances, the convection falls apart S and E of Boston.

          1. It may be. But I do remember a few areas last season seemed to keep getting missed, even though days with activity were plenty. It came down to specifics.

  45. Logan shifted the flight take off and approach paths. We’re getting low fliers overhead every minute or 2 here in Woburn.

    1. You can say that again!
      Planes every minute or 2.
      Cloud structure to South was impressive.
      Did not here thunder even outside.

  47. First severe thunderstorm warnings of warm weather season popping up south of Boston.
    I missed the action today. Oh well maybe next time.

  48. The west south-west portion of the cloud line seems to be back building as far as I can see to the horizon.

    Perhaps something may be about to pop back towards northern RI if there’s enough instability/moisture left in that area ???

    1. It’s trying but I think it runs out of time.

      Now we have an area that is more driven by mid level instability coming from the WSW out of CT into MA. This will wet down some areas but is going to be a whole lot of not much. 😉

            1. Well, I faced the West and waved.
              At Marshalls old shoppers world site.
              I’m standing on top of what was Jordans basement.

                1. I was there for the dedication back in the day. Rudy Vallee was a family friend and was one of the performers so stayed with us while in town. We spent many years just wandering the paths and gardens when my kids were little.

    1. Hingham again but it cell continues due east and holds together maybe Marshfield worse this time

        2. I stand corrected.
          Cell approaching Situate
          Seem to go instantly boom.
          Wimpy before that.
          Interesting.

  50. And again the boundary creates enough lift to enhance the activity moving in from the west southwest. A good live laboratory on storm development and movement this evening. This event as very well-forecast by the short range guidance I might add. Everything went just about as expected. I think the intensity and rapid development of the South Shore line may have been a bit of a surprise though, but that’s the nature of convection.

  51. Philip… I’m pretty sure that the weekend system will be more of a fail than a solid producer. But we cannot rule out some activity around the region. The setup for Saturday reminds me of one where a system is trying to move in but is getting eaten up by mid level dry air.

    1. The people my mom knew make me shake my head. The list is long. She lived an amazing life. Rudy at one point asked her to marry him. Glad she said no As he didn’t want kids and I like being here

  54. Had a brief heavy shower this evening on the golf course. Raindrops were huge! Just had another shower come through now.

  55. TK
    Was there enough of a westerly component
    To keep the marine influence away?
    Or did they fire anyway?

    1. Enough west easily. By the time things would have fired far enough south to have the marine influence be a player, the sun was too low in the sky to fire storms anyway.

  56. Dry air + wind + time of the season = Red Flag Advisory for MA.

    Pollen count through the roof today.

    Amtrak derailment in Philly area very , very bad news.

    1. Saw that on the 11PM news. Tragic.

      It smells like the train was traveling at too fast a rate of speed
      around a corner based on a passenger account. Hope the engineer was not
      impaired in anyway. So sad.

      It will all come out.

      1. The photos are very difficult to look at. My prayers for everyone on that train and for the families of the six who were lost.

  59. A tad on the cooler side this morning, but still a magnificent day out there.
    Love it!! Noticeable difference from yesterday!

  60. Hail on the South Shore.

    Eric indicated that hail was up to 0.8 inche in diameter in Braintree and Quincy
    during last evenings T-storm. Pretty intense for this area. They played a nice
    video of hail coming down and it was pretty impressive.

    To me, that particular storm was a bit of a surprise. I mean I knew it was “possible” but
    I sure didn’t expect that. 😀

    1. OS I know you were watching the radar. I saw it after the storms had formed so missed the actual formation.

      Because the radar loop I have will back up so many minutes, it looked to me as if there was a cell sitting off shore and that it grew backwards to land and formed the cells over the SS. Not sure if I am explaining it well enough to understand. If so, was that what I saw because I had a limited “clip” or did/could that happen.

      1. I was an interesting looking sky for sure. Some of the suns rays at sunset were turning both the tops and the bottoms of the storm’s clouds various colors.

        At one point, I also thought I saw mammatus clouds, but cannot with 100% confidence confirm that.

        Ironically, most of the rain missed us. I don’t think we made it to .10

  62. As a Cowboys fan I am hoping the suspension is upheld so Brady is not on the field against us at home. I was surprised with the length of the suspension. I thought it was going to be two games. In addition I was suprised with the fine of one million dollars. I am tired of hearing it. Yesterday on sports talk in NYC I was watching a simulcast of show from WFAN on Fox Sports 2. Most of the show was spent on Brady and the Patriots on New York sports radio station. There are two first place baseball teams and a hockey which will game seven tonight against the Capitals and for most of the show its Brady and the Patriots.

    1. The official NFL punishment for tampering with a game ball is
      a $25,000 fine. So WHY the 4 game suspension. This SMELLS big time!!!

      I sincerely hope Goodel gets canned over this and Brady is exonerated!!

  63. You keep hearing in the statement the integrity of the game was broken. The punishment with the loss of the draft picks the fine and Brady’s suspension did surprise me. I think even if Brady wins the appeal he still be suspended. I think your going to see it go to a two game suspension.

  64. Definitely a colder airmass in place, compared to the last 7 days or so.

    Mt Washington at 21F with sleet.

    1. wow! But none-the-less it is beautiful here. I’ll take a Spring day like
      this anytime!!!

      1. oh, agreed !

        This is what I’d like to see for a while in mid May, 65F to 70F and then once we are used to that, 70s and so on ……..

        I do know that is not a reasonable expectation for New England weather.

  65. 11Am at Logan = 65 Degrees which was Eric’s forecasted high for the day.
    It sure appears high will eclipse 65, perhaps 67 or 68 and maybe even a run
    at 70. NICE!

  67. I had not been on much as i been really busy with college. Last week was so nice it hit 90 one of the data

  68. Where we have been so dry since March 1st ….. on partly and certainly, mostly sunny days, probably wise to shoot 2 to 4F above what the models are suggesting for high temps.

    So, tomorrow for example, with a lot of sun and especially for inland locations away from the seabreeze, if the models are saying 71F, I’d guess closer to 75F.

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