Weekend Update

131 Comments

7:50AM

SUMMARY…
Timing right on track today with the morning and late-day shower threat and breaks of sun in between. With most energy traveling through CT only brief showers will visit parts of eastern MA, southern NH, and RI this morning. In between energy pulses we’ll see some partial clearing which will boost inland areas to around 70 for high temperatures, maybe a little warmer than that in some spots, while the coast is cooler. One change from the previous forecast is that the warm front, which I thought would never make it through southeastern New England, will actually do so tonight into Sunday as low pressure parenting it tracks a little further north than I expected previously. This will introduce warmer and more humid air overnight into Sunday along with a threat of a few thunderstorms along with any shower activity. This will be followed by a quick change to a cooler air mass as the cold front sinks southward as the low departs to the northeast. A sharp temperature drop is likely later Sunday. This may be enhanced further as winds turn a little more to the northeast behind the cold front. We’ll have to watch for low clouds from the ocean by late Sunday into Monday, but they should break later Monday. Still looking for a shift to southerly flow and warming up Monday night into Tuesday as we get another quick warm front / cold front combo, bringing a threat of showers on Tuesday. A gusty breezy and drier weather should return Wednesday, then nice weather by Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves in.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with brief showers west to east across the region but fading and missing some areas. Partly sunny later morning into afternoon then mostly cloudy again with showers possible later in the day. Highs 60s coast to lower 70s interior. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm through mid afternoon. Low clouds may arrive in eastern coastal areas late day or evening. Highs upper 60s immediate shore to 75-82 interior areas, but may fall sharply late day or evening. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N or NE late day from north to south.
MONDAY: Cloudy to partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs 60 coast to 70 interior.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and clouds with a gusty wind. Lows 45-55. Highs in the 60s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s, coolest interior. Highs 65-75, coolest East Coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs 68-78, coolest South Coast.

131 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  1. Repost of quizzes…

    Longshot says:
    May 16, 2015 at 7:00 AM

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1.What is a syzygy?
    A. A severe storm complex
    B. An active hurricane season
    C. An alignment of three celestial objects
    D. A star exploding

    2. On average how many tropical storms or hurricanes are named each year in the Atlantic.

    A. 10
    B. 12
    C. 14
    D. 16

    Answers later today. No cheating.

    2. I’ll say D and B

      Although for quiz one I was thinking the sound Tes Wells makes when he opens his mouth to justify his report

  2. Thanks TK.
    C and B.
    I think the latest run of the American models showing way more CAPE and Lift for parts of SNE. I think any storms fire to the west will weaken as they get into SNE.
    6z GFS CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

    1. There will be pretty unstable air tonight but mainly to the west and south. It is possible that a strong storm or 2 could survive into at least southern MA, RI, and especially CT but would be driven by dynamics tonight since we’ll obviously have no solar heating. 🙂

  3. Good to know. Thanks TK. Ill be watching it.
    6z NAM
    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    EHI GFS by the way much less.
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

  5. Will this be the summer of mesoscale warm frontal thunder storms? Have a great day all.

  6. Haven’t been on in a while, so I don’t know if anybody has talked about the possible big El Niño this year. If it happens don’t look for much snow this winter

  7. Thanks tk 🙂

    Very typical for today’s storms, they all die as they enter 495 and especially 128 🙂

  8. Morning,

    I guess we really got into the rain this morning, NOT! 😀

    Still does not look like we get into the warm sector, but if we manage it, it
    will be only briefly. 😀

  9. Thank you TK

    Is anyone else finding the droppings from the winter moth caterpillar disgusting. I was just out sweeping them and all I could hear was more dropping around me.

    2. I know many that hate those caripollars so much they spend 2,000 getting rid of any trees in and around there yard. They destroy and stain everything

      1. Agree, Charlie. Don’t know if you saw a previous comment from me that They introduced a fly into the environment that will eventually eat them. But it’ll take a couple of years for them to establish.

  10. Please tell me we are in for some decent weather on the cape over memorial day weekend….and by decent I mean not rainy….PLEASE!!!!

    1. I feel the same way DS, even though we really need the rain, just not during Memorial Day Weekend.

      The EURO is high and dry with pleasant temps next weekend and the GFS offers some shower chances the second half of the weekend, but given the dry pattern we’ve been in, I’ll guess in a few more days, it will trend towards dry all weekend.

      1. I’m happy with this weekend being crappy in exchange for a nice 3 day weekend for next.

  11. Tk how is it looking for the kiss concert in Mansfield this afternoon and tonight, thank you . My son who I’m so proud of is going without mom and dad.

      1. He is sue . He just got lawn this morning and going with my sister and his cousins . Last minute decision as he is very attached to his mom at the age of 11 so this is good for him and us as my wife and I never get to go out just us, I know that’s are fault but it is what it is lol.

        1. Nothing wrong with doing things with your kids and as a family. Time comes all too soon when they are off with their friends and you’ll have time for the two of you. Our kids still enjoy being with us….And we them !!

          1. Agree we do plenty . He just needs to venture out some on his own as well because it’s good for him. When I tell you him and my wife are attached I mean it and it’s not always a good thing for the both of them so him venturing out is good for everybody .

  15. A ground dampening shower just came through. May not have even been worth .01

    My car has a layer of green pollen on it.

  17. We have had breaks of sun late morning and afternoon here. Even when the sun was out through it didn’t feel like we were in the warm sector here since the dew points never got too terribly high.

    1. I don’t like that they run in these conditions. One reason I don’t like racing. Very Risky for horses. The evacuate infield and leave horses. Arghhhhh

    1. You are right. They also do not cancel horse shows. I can’t tell you how many times we stood outside for an entire rainy day. But the footing was different.

    2. That was nuts !!

      I havent watched many horse races, I just happened to go past ch 7, saw all the rain and decided to watch.

      Amazing the horses can run that fast in that kind of mud or whatever you want to call it.

      1. They are pretty sure footed when running free. When being directed it is trickier. But these are exceptionl Jockeys For show horses, we used different studs although Kims pony mostly went barefoot. Not sure about studs in racing.

        Pharaoh is a beautiful animal….they Are

        1. Humans abuse anything they can get their hands on, including other humans. Sad race we are.

  22. Answers to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1.What is a syzygy?
    A. A severe storm complex
    B. An active hurricane season
    C. An alignment of three celestial objects
    D. A star exploding

    2. On average how many tropical storms or hurricanes are named each year in the Atlantic.

    A. 10
    B. 12
    C. 14
    D. 16

    The answers are C and B.

  23. I will now be watching the Belmont Stakes in three weeks with a chance to see the first triple crown winner in my lifetime. If there is no chance for a triple crown I don’t watch the Belmont Stakes.

    1. I watch all 3 every year and the Breeder’s Cup in the Fall.

      Affirmed 1978, last triple crown.

      There are 2 or 3 horses that can spoil it this year. We shall see.

      1. Ive said before that my mom wanted to wager on secretariat because I was a secretary at the time. She just didn’t know how 🙁

        I don’t watch more than the derby normally. Like you JJ, I’ll watch the belmont. I like show jumping and the some dressage.

        Daughter was chuckling at how clean pharaoh and jockey were while rest were mud covered.

    1. I absolutely hate that they allow any horses other than these. It’s one reason I don’t typically watch.

  26. Thanks Vicki I forgot golf. Rory broke his own course record at Quail Hollow today and has 4 shot lead over Webb Simpson.
    Phil Mickelson imploded on last hole with a triple bogey.

  27. Tough night in the central/southern Plains.

    One supercell now has that debris ball signature of a strong tornado on the radar.

    1. Not seeing tormado warning boxes, Tom, but my radar said it was having trouble. That is a heck of a line of storms

      1. Amazing that it goes from Minnesota to Texas.

        Southwest Oklahoma and northernmost Texas have a couple tornado warnings and a cell on the warm front in Minnesota has a warning.

    1. I think Logan hit the 8:00 pm sunset mark tonight. Its nice.

      It bright now also very, very early in the AM, as early as 5 am.

  31. Sunrises are now approaching 5:20 am. We still have aways to go before they are at their earliest at 5:07 am.

    If we didn’t have DST the earliest sunrises would be at 4:07 am! Even the early commuters wouldn’t need lights when leaving home. 😀

  32. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1.Which is NOT a type of lightning?
    A. Sheet
    B. Red Sprite
    C. Ball
    D. Cone

    2. What is the lowest cloud in this list?

    A. Stratus
    B. Altocumulus
    C. Cirrostratus
    D. Cirrus

    Answers later today.

  33. Sunny start.

    Worcester at 63F, Mt. Washington in the mid 40s.

    The temps should rise quickly this morning.

    Should be interesting to see when the cool air arrives at the coast, does it do so as a light seabreeze or with a strong, gusty onshore breeze …….

  34. The Weei now has a 3 hour segment with Rodney Harrison talking about the upcoming season. I love it, this would never happen just 5 yrs ago, Go Patriots!!! Get ready for some beatdowns 🙂 it won’t be long, only 7 weeks till mini camp, and they r saying record crowds and record Patriot TV ratings this upcoming year. Go Patriots!!! 🙂

    Looking like a warm day!! Enjoy!!

  35. Amazing amount of mild to warm air surging northward through Alaska and the Northwest Territories.

    On the north slope of Alaska, at 4am, with a SW wind, it is 36F !!!! in Barrow, AK.

    Stunning ………

    Its been this way (way above normal) for about 10 days now. It has been overall above normal for a while (months) now.

    The GFS and EURO continue to show them well above normal the next week. Perhaps 70F all the way to the Arctic ocean (Tuktoyuktuk). Crazy stuff.

  36. Winds along the coast are very light. On shore breeze about to begin already.
    So much for a warm day along the coast, unless SW wind can start blowing.

    69.6 here at the moment. 😀

  38. 9AM Wind North at Beverely, Calm at Logan, Calm at Matrshfield and SW
    at Plymouth.

    70.2 here. 😀

  41. That front on the map is essentially washed out. We will see cooler air on the coast during the day because of a fairly light gradient but the real cool push comes with the genesis of a second front that crashes into us tonight.

  42. The Euro actually had that small low just offshore many days in advance. Superior performance of late. Funny how the models go back and forth like that.

    1. Nice forecasting TK. You could feel the promise of a warmer day when you walked out the door this morning!

  43. Although it is nearly 75 here now, there is a pretty strong NE wind blowing.
    Unless it is North and I saw NE due to houses and trees?????

    11AM at Logan, 62 Degrees with EAST WIND!!! Waiting on NOON obs.

      1. Noon at the airport 62 Degrees, Wind from 080 degrees at 8 mph.
        Blue hill wind at 020 degrees temp 77

        Temp here down a tad to 75.4. Was up to 75.7

        here is an oddity. Beverely 74 Degrees, wind from 090 at 8 mph.
        How could Beverely on the water with East wind be 74 and Logan be 62. What!!! Is that dumbass Logan in a refrigerator?

  45. 79 where I am in North Attleboro. Feels warmer, feeling the humidity creeping up today.

      1. Agreed ….. just a thin, top layer of water.

        Get a NW or W wind and some upwelling and it probably drops into the mid-upper 40s.

        1. Don’t think so. Current “Real” temp is about 51, however, strong upwelling could make for temps you stated.

          I was Once in Atlantic City in August where normal ocean
          temp is about 76 degrees or so, the water temp was 58
          due to strong upwelling. BRRR that was chilly.

  48. Repost of Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1.Which is NOT a type of lightning?
    A. Sheet
    B. Red Sprite
    C. Ball
    D. Cone

    2. What is the lowest cloud in this list?

    A. Stratus
    B. Altocumulus
    C. Cirrostratus
    D. Cirrus

    Answers later today.

  50. We have a true sea breeze out there. Look at the visible satellite picture and you can tell by where the cumulus clouds are.

    We’ll know for sure when the back-door front goes through and it will be followed immediately by a stratus overcast.

    1. Yup it is for sure.

      Pretty decent EAST wind here, yet temp is holding at 74 Degrees.
      A 10 of a day here in JP!!!!!

  51. It’s been a better mid-spring than advertised thus far as long as you don’t live in Logan (ha, ha) or along the shoreline. Early spring…not so much.

    1. IDK I think it’s been a great spring all around…and pretty much as TK advertised. I kind of think when the equinox hits, some expect an immediate change rather than a gradual transition from winter to spring. Same thing happened in December when I seem to remember winter was cancelled 🙂

    2. I don’t recall seeing forecasts for a bad mid Spring. The 30-day from CPC had generally mild and dry weather forecast for the Northeast. WHW was advertising a trend to dry and less cold from Canada but occasional intrusions of marine air due to the still-chilly ocean water and high pressure areas to the north at times.

      Was it one of the other media outlets?

  52. 86 here…8th day since May 1 we have been above 80. Only 2 days below 70 and those maxed out in the 60s.

    However not even .10 of rain since 4/23 and trending drier throughtout SNE this week. I think most areas are in the .10-.20 range this week. Maybe less…Logan is only .004 for May. Although not a drought, when in drought forecast drought…

    1. Absolutely. I am not sure how much it takes to move from abnormally dry to mold drought. It is looking as if we will get there

      Last weekend we pulled some old bushes. Their roots were pretty deep so we didn’t think we’d get them. But the soil was still wet several inches down and further. This weekend it is dry. Sudbury river was still high a couple of weeks ago. It is amazing how much it has dropped in that time.

    1. Thanks Philip. Do you or does anyone know how accurate those predictions are. Also, did you hear whether any would be major?

  55. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1.Which is NOT a type of lightning?
    A. Sheet
    B. Red Sprite
    C. Ball
    D. Cone

    The answer is D.

    2. What is the lowest cloud in this list?

    A. Stratus
    B. Altocumulus
    C. Cirrostratus
    D. Cirrus

    The answer is A.

  57. Been a little surprised by the heights of the warmth in valley locations and in areas of west of Worcester and the extent of the dryness but spring has been generally about as forecasted. I guess I am just furthering TK’s message.

  58. This is from Woburn MA at 8:20PM

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xat1/v/t1.0-9/11263124_10153359043612265_2871769754140190074_n.jpg?oh=9341139b5726b28967892a878af534f7&oe=55CD205F&__gda__=1442757533_4a36edaf2d44b650f02f3c4ef5796df6

    This is from Hampton Beach NH at the same time…

    https://scontent-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/11070539_10153359049172265_2670842010066834205_n.jpg?oh=6247444a24af56784595befbcfcf8e80&oe=5604B4C9

  59. Temp is 65 degrees 🙂

    Brady and Jordon teamed up on the golf course today, what a sight, analyst said they by far got the most attention, and I guess there were a lot of celebrities, any publicity is good publicity. Go Patriots!!

  60. Marine layer about to overspread the entire region. Different world tomorrow morning.

    New blog posted!

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