The Week Ahead Plus

62 Comments

10:00PM

SUMMARY…
This is one of those rare times were we go out 8 days and that must mean that next weekend is a “long weekend”. It is! The unofficial start of Summer, a.k.a. Memorial Day Weekend. I’ll do my best to give you an idea of what to expect through then. Let’s start with tonight as we get a weather change in the form of a deck of low clouds and areas of fog rolling in off the ocean via the Gulf of Maine, in response to a wind flowing in from the northeast. There may be some areas of drizzle as well. This persists into the day Monday but some drying from the east may promote at least partial clearing as the day goes on. Low clouds redevelop at night as a light southeast flow takes over. Tuesday will be a more humid day with a couple rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms as a disturbance and front traverse the region. By Wednesday, a shot of cooler/drier air will arrive from Canada with a sun/cloud mix. High pressure will bring fair weather Thursday. A disturbance may produce a few passing showers on Friday before high pressure builds in and brings fair weather for at least the first two thirds of the Memorial Day Weekend Saturday and Sunday. By the holiday itself on Monday we may be dealing with showers/thunderstorms from an approaching frontal system. It’s very difficult to get 3 straight fair weather days any time in Spring in New England, even in a dry pattern.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Low clouds spreading across the region from northeast to southwest along with patchy fog and drizzle overnight. Lows 46-54. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Low overcast, areas of fog and drizzle to start. Partial clearing east to west during the afternoon. Highs 60-68, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-58. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s coast, 70s interior. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-55. Highs 64-72.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 50-58. Highs 66-74.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 52-60. Highs 63-70.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 50-58. High 67-75.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 52-60. High 72-80.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows 56-64. Highs 68-75.

62 thoughts on “The Week Ahead Plus”

  4. TK, how does the North Conway area look like Sat/Sun? Same but cooler than southern new england?

    1. Saturday: Lots of sun but a few fair weather cumulus, highs 60-65.
      Sunday: Lots of sun that may fade later with advancing high/middle clouds, highs 70-75.

  5. With everything so green and trees and flowers blooming, it is Hard to believe that just six weeks ago we were snow covered.

    1. Glad it was up there, 6 weeks ago? Geez not here, lol we’ve been snow free for months here 🙂

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.
    That low deck of clouds sure moved in last night as advertised.

    This morning 52 at my house and YUCKY. No drizzle, thankfully, but PUTRID
    weather. But, we can handle one day of this, it’s the week long misery that’s
    tough to take.

  7. It is brightening here and the sun is trying to peek through!!
    I see a tiny bit of blue sky here and there!! AHh there it is! SUN!!!!! Shadows being
    cast.

    1. More blue sky showing. TK called for possible clearing in Eastern sections.
      Sure looks like it is COMING much sooner than anticipated, which is a very
      GOOD thing!!!

  9. Hope you don’t mind a long non weather post.

    At dana for macs chemo. Met with dr first.

    Positive news for mac. CT he had fri was first since stopping cancer target pill and starting chemo. It can only show so much because CT doesn’t show what is happening with cancer cells in fluids but there are no new nodules anywhere. Also dr explained that he had been monitoring tumor markers in macs bloodwork. It is not definitive but in macs case a very good indication. You want to see the readings go up and macs have gone up MARKEDLY. That is wonderful news and I wanted to share with my whw family. You have all been a great support. Thank you

  11. It’s turning out to be a nice SUNNY day here. Currently about 75% sunny
    with about 25% clouds. REALLY NICE, albeit cool. 😀

  12. Best instability for tomorrow’s thunderstorms look to stay west of SNE for tomorrow with 6z runs of NAM and GFS.
    SPC has the marginal risk to CT River Valley. I think that needs to go back further to the west and where only far western areas of SNE are in it. Will see what the 12z runs show and what the latest SPC outlook shows around 1:30pm.
    It looks more briefly heavy downpours here in SNE rather than a strong or severe storms.

  13. Thanks TK!

    Vicki – that is fantastic news about Mac’s results. The prayers shall continue.

  14. Thanks TK !

    Pleasant weather surprise of a decent amount of sun already.

    Shallow, cool airmass ….. Mt. Washington summit still 48F.

  15. Drying from east ahead of schedule. Still some pockets of stratus upstream which indicates other areas of low level moisture. Will also have to watch for some diurnal cloud development over land. We’ll see if that balance is tipped.

  16. What goes up (northward towards the pole), must come down (southward towards the equator) with the jet stream.

    As mentioned before, consistent warmth in Alaska and the Northwest Territories.

    Meanwhile, further eastward in easternmost Canada …… Kimmirut Web cam shows heavy snow, probably close to 6 new inches, its barely 20F and the visibility is no more than 1/4 mile. That must be fun on May 18th. Their sunrise is around 3:30am and the sunset is close to 10pm.

  18. At 10AM, logan was partly cloudy at 55 Degrees.
    The good news, the Northeast Wind was down to 8 mph. We can
    deal with that. 😀

  20. Hmmm

    11AM obs at Logan
    Wind from NE up to 13 mph and temperature has jumped all the way up to
    56. 😀

  26. There are a few wispy cirrus clouds up there, but other than that 100% Sunny.
    Back from immediate coast it’s 60 to 61. ONLY 55 at the airport Ice Box.
    That place blows chunks!!! Higher than that here. Nice and comfortable without
    a jacket. My car thermometer was reading 61, which means it’s probably 59 or 60. 😀

  27. SPC latest outlook brings marginal risk close to the Worcester area. I don’t agree with it. I think it should be further to the west over far western SNE. Will see what happens.
    NORTHEAST…
    A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL
    MOVE DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF AN EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
    NORTHEAST. BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S N TO THE
    LOW-MID 60S S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY BY MID AFTERNOON AND
    THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE STRENGTH
    OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST INCREASE TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE
    APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND A FEW STORMS MAY EXHIBIT
    ORGANIZATION. DMGG WIND AND A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL RISK APPEAR TO
    BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE WEAKENING DURING
    THE EVENING.

  28. Something is wrong at the Airport. Look at this:

    Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA
    (KBVY) 42.58361N 70.91639W

    Mostly Cloudy
    61.0 °F
    Last Updated: May 18 2015, 12:53 pm EDT
    Mon, 18 May 2015 12:53:00 -0400
    Weather: Mostly Cloudy
    Temperature: 61.0 °F (16.1 °C)

    To be fair, I do not know how far back from the coast the airport is there.
    I just checked, it’s “about” 3 1/2 miles inland, so there ya go. What I said above.

  30. Vicki, I’m very happy to hear about Mac. You and he have been enduring one of life’s trials, and doing so with such dignity and grace.

    On a completely different note, our far-Northern friends continue to be hammered by never-ending snows. A brief respite last week melted a little bit of the ice and snow. But, that was ever so brief. This week it’s back to winter up there – which is practically the only season known to the Inuit. Usually the ice on the waterway that you may be able to make out in the link below melts by early June. Not this year. I don’t think Charlie will be doing much liming anytime soon up in Kimmirut.

    http://www.camcentral.com/camviewer.php?script=listings&task=list&item=location&show=Canada&page=5&id=17446

    1. Remember the SNOW BLITZ we had?
      Well now we have a RAINANOBLITZ. Get used to it.
      When it’s dry it’s dry and it’s dry. 😀

  33. TK – Will you be posting your Summer Outlook soon? 🙂

    Also, does it match Barry’s? He posted his thoughts on his blog last week.

  34. Somebody posted an El Niño question about it possibly being
    Strong this winter I emailed Judah on it.

  35. What time does rain stop tomorrow? We have a roof top event tomorrow evening that we are trying to plan for. Thank you!!

    1. The question is. Will rain even start? Some areas won’t even see a rain drop. The best chance for rain is in the morning with a break in the afternoon before more convective chances occur later in the day. Good luck with the event.

  36. Hazardous weather outlook up for tomorrow for the possibility of a few strong maybe even a severe storm.
    Level 1 thunderstorms tomorrow meaning should thunderstorms develop they will be below severe levels

    1. I’m not looking for any severe weather, but, since I’m hoping for no rain this coming weekend, especially Saturday and Sunday, I wouldnt mind if the sun was out tomorrow afternoon and that provided enough warmth and instability to help form a few heavy downpours.

  37. Ob of the day …..

    Inuvik, Canada (far Northwest Territories) ….. about 70N Latitude, practically on the arctic ocean …..

    Average daily high today : a nice, crisp 45F

    Current temp : 80F ……….. nope, not a mistype ……….. 80F.

    2. I remember that pattern happening up there a few times during my years in the private sector. It’s amazing how far from the average one way or another temps can get in any given place at any given time.

  38. My original plan was to do a Summer outlook this past weekend, but I will have it out by this coming weekend.

    Consulting with some colleagues as I formulate my thoughts. One thing we may be in for is a bunch of NW flow t-storm threats. It’s been a while. We may lack persistent heat for a good part of the Summer but when we do get hot it could get quite hot.

    Back to the near-term, going to update the blog soon but a preview…
    Severe thunderstorm threat for western New England tomorrow. It should come as no surprise they won’t survive as severe storms into the eastern areas. It will be too stable here. A few areas will see beneficial rain but there will be many more areas that do not. The late-day / evening threat is likely to be mostly near and south of the Mass Pike. The morning threat will have pockets of downpours but will move through very quickly. Fabulous weather on Wednesday but a gusty breeze. Fabulous weather on Thursday but without the gusty breeze. Disturbance Friday, few showers. Great Memorial Day Weekend overall, but there will be a shower threat sometime Monday.

  39. Some light showers passing through.

    Hopefully one of those heavier echoes passes overhead. 🙂

Comments are closed.