Memorial Day Weekend Forecast

43 Comments

7:43PM

COMMENTARY…
Here it is, the opening long weekend to the Summer tourism and recreation season, or at least that’s what popular belief is. Summer may be a few weeks away from its astronomical beginning, but for most people, Summer arrived the moment they freed themselves up for this weekend, if they were lucky enough to do so. There is a built-in dilemma that some people may recognize, regarding the weather, at this time. Most people want great weather for outdoor activity, which means little rain and near or above normal temperatures for this time of year. And this season, after enduring the Winter we had, the desire for such conditions is especially strong among the majority of folks. The dilemma: It’s dry. We need rain. Obviously, no matter what you want for weather, the atmosphere is going to do what it’s going to do. So using that logic, why feel guilty for wanting good weather this weekend? And most of it will be very nice. If that’s the case, then just enjoy it…and be safe!

SUMMARY…
A late shot of very chilly air is heading in on a gusty northwest wind this Friday evening and will make tonight and the early hours of Saturday feel rather cold for late May. A frost threat exists in the valleys especially in the I-495 belt. Most of the region will be protected from frost by an active breeze, which will not allow perfect radiational cooling to set up. Radiational cooling takes place when wind is light or calm and the heat escapes upward. The more dense, cold air stays near the ground and pools in the valleys. A gusty breeze keeps this from happening by keeping the air mixed. Think of a glass of water and oil, which would separate with the more dense water going to the bottom and the less dense oil going to the top. If you keep stirring it with a spoon, it won’t separate so easily. That gusty breeze will continue into the day Saturday, though temperatures will recover to respectable levels after the cold start, and this will occur with 100% sunshine. By Sunday, the high pressure which brought the chill in will sink to the south and a more west to southwest wind will allow for a more significant warm up under a mostly sunny sky. While we are enjoying 2 sunny days, there will be heat and humidity building across the US Southeast and pushing into the Mid Atlantic States. The leading edge of this air mass will approach southern New England on Memorial Day Monday, and the result will be a day that does not stay bright and sunny like the 2 preceding it. Clouds will increase. Though most indications are that it will stay dry, almost any time you have this set up you have to watch for some patches of very light rain at the very least, so keep that in mind. If it were to occur, it would probably be later in the day, as timing looks now. And then comes the genuine Summer preview once the warm front passes. Tuesday through Thursday of next week should resemble July with warm to hot air, more humidity, and a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms, though it is not likely that any widespread beneficial rain will occur, just scattered areas that may get some. Looking way ahead, a cold front may move closer to the region by Friday with perhaps a better shower/t-storm risk.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-40 rural/suburban areas, 40-45 coast/urban areas, exception in sheltered valleys where 30-35 and scattered frost may occur. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with gusts above 20 MPH, but under 10 MPH in sheltered valleys.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s interior, around 50 coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s to around 80 elsewhere. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of very light rain late day. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a daily risk of mainly afternoon showers / t-storms. Rain-free most of the time. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s to near 90 elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

43 thoughts on “Memorial Day Weekend Forecast”

  3. Very Nice explanation TK. Thanks. JR. said breeze would keep frost to a minimum but never explained why. He needs you.

  5. Perfect night to sit on porch and listen to the wind. Temp 56. Great sleeping night too.

    Good night all. Thank you to those who gave their all for the freedoms we share. Thank you to their families. You are all on our minds and in our hearts not only this weekend but always

  7. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. On visible imagery, fog will cover unfrozen lakes and rivers while snow will not.
    A. True
    B. False

    2. A mid-latitude cyclone will often have what kind of shape on a satellite image.

    A. Rectangle
    B. Dumbbell
    C. Comma
    D. Pentagon

    Answers later today. (I didn’t like the way the 1st one was phrased. I got the 2nd by process of elimination.)

    2. #1 is another dumb-ass question by inaccu weather.

      If a like is unfrozen, how the hell is snow going to show on it?????? huh? what?

      Thus A & C.

    3. 1. A – or why else would the question be posed?
      2. C

      Today is a beautiful October day.

  9. Going to enjoy this nice sunny day in the 60s with dry comfortable conditions. This COULD be the last time we see sunny skies highs in the 60s till September October.
    B C

  10. Chilly one today. Up to 50.5 here.

    FWIW, Barry is on board with a HEAT WAVE!

    He had 90s for Wed,Thurs, Fri & Sat with the highest being 94 for Thurs.
    We shall see. Now I am wondering if DT might be correct after all????

  11. FWIW, 06Z GFS keeps the heat going all the through Monday,ending Tuesday.

    CMC has it only in the 60s and low 70s Thursday and Friday with No Heat wave for sure.

    Euro keeps the warmth through next Tuesday like the GFS.

    JMA also show a cool down mid week like CMC???

    SO I guess we toss the CMC and it looks like the heat is on.

    1. It’s been crazy all along, which I guess makes it normal in many ways. We just see it all now. 🙂

  14. For those of you that have Sirius/XM radio there is a James Taylor station this weekend on Ch. 17. Good stuff!

  16. TK – Will the upcoming HHH pattern contribute to putting a serious dent in our drought conditions bringing opportunities for daily afternoon showers?

    1. It’s not likely to be a lasting HHH pattern really, just a preview of the overall Summer pattern. This type of pattern will not do much for the rainfall deficit. That only happens if you get into one of those situations where you get a great tropical moisture feed and the jet stream is bringing it right up. I don’t see that happening. There will be a shower and thunderstorm threat, but those are usually spotty and only bring partial/temporary relief.

  17. Middle 50s most ob sites at noon, with dew point upper 10s to lower 20s. That’s a crisp & cool air mass! It was chilly in the shade & wind, but nice in the sun, when I was outside a short while ago.

      1. Landing right where they were expected to be, though stayed even cooler on Cape Cod than I thought.

  20. It feels like fall today. I am enjoying this since probably not going to have a day like this with sunny clear skies and crisp air until September October.

  21. I caught this on the NWS point forecast for my area earlier today.

    Today
    Sunny, with a temperature falling to around 48 by 3pm. Southwest wind 7 to 13 mph.
    Tonight
    Mostly clear, with a temperature rising to around 76 by 4am. West wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
    Sunday
    Sunny, with a temperature falling to around 58 by 5pm. Southwest wind 6 to 15 mph.

    Something was screwed up big time. 😀

      1. I just opened all windows and filled the pool. I figured we would have a pre-sunrise swim

  23. Hi Vicki…. I think will be saying tape delayed golf again tomorrow and they will tee of in groups of three in the morning. I got to remember not to go on PGAtour.com and get the results. That area where the tournament the storm prediction center has a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow. That part of the country has been hit left and right with severe weather and flooding in the past few weeks.

    1. Thanks JJ. Mac just said they are doing tape delayed. Hopefully, they’ll get it in before bad storms or the course gets too wet.

  24. Thanks for letting me know. I am going to stay away from PGAtour.com
    If it ends up being a 54 hole tournament Kevin Na will be the winner.

  25. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. On visible imagery, fog will cover unfrozen lakes and rivers while snow will not.
    A. True
    B. False

    2. A mid-latitude cyclone will often have what kind of shape on a satellite image.

    A. Rectangle
    B. Dumbbell
    C. Comma
    D. Pentagon

    The answers are A & C.

    1. Thanks longshot. I was wondering how snow would cover an unfrozen lake or river. Can that even happen?

      1. Sure it can cover it, for the briefest of time while the snow flake
        MELTS!! and that’s almost instantaneous.

        That was one of the craziest questions I have ever seen.

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