7:28AM
SUMMARY…
The feel of Summer in the last days of Meteorological Spring, then the feel of Spring in the first days of Meteorological Summer. Typical New England. No major changes at this time from what was discussed in the last entry. The Summer preview got established on Tuesday and will continue for the rest of this week, though there will be a few changes during this time with a weak cold front bringing some showers and thunderstorms into the region mainly well north and west of Boston today and into most of the region Thursday, though this does not look like it will become a widespread beneficial rain. We’ll also see a brief cool down and dry push of air Friday before the feel of Summer returns Saturday. By Sunday another cold front will arrive and this one may produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms. As June begins, the first couple days of it (Monday and Tuesday next week) look much cooler.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm late-day north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 65-70 South Coast and 70s just inland from there, 80s elsewhere, may reach 90 in a few locations. More humid. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mid to late afternoon well north and west of Boston, late afternoon and evening close to Boston and to the southeast. Humid. Highs 65-70 South Coast, 70s to lower 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 60-65. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle and showers. Lows 55-60. Highs 60-65.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 65-70.
Thanks TK!
Nice to see you here, North!!!
🙂
Thanks TK !
It is unbelievable what what you do and what this blog does. Thank you.
Thanks, TK.
Happy Birthday, Shotime!!!
Thank You, Vicki!!!
Thank you once again TK.
Last night Barry was talking about exactly what JJ and I were discussing yesterday,
more of a Southerly component to the wind. BB said it would limit the high in Boston
today to about 84 and prevent it from reaching 90 and also keep the T storms away.
We shall see how it all plays out.
One site shows Boston dew point as 61 while another says 67. My OS feel says it’s
61 and no way is it 67. Anyone know for sure?
Boston wind is from 200 Degrees, even though report says SW.
That’s not far from due South. SSW at best. True SW is about 225 Degrees.
That is enough of a Southerly component to spare us Severe T-storms and 90+ degrees here in Eastern Sections. Out West, a different story.
SEVERE WEATHER expected in Vermont today.
Look at this from the SPC. Notice the extremely sharp cut off from West
to East further supporting the above.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/activity_loop.gif
Interesting…
I was just looking at all of the observations for Logan yesterday.
When the high temperature of 87 was reached yesterday, the wind was from 190 Degrees. For May 26th, I find that unbelievable. That temperature should have been
capped at about 82-84. How did it manage to climb to 87???????
How warm is that water to the South of us?
From what I can see, the water temperatures South of LI are in the 53-55 degree
range. Should have supplied enough cooling. What am I missing here?
Perhaps a testament to how warm the airmass is.
I think Mt. Washington was in the mid 50s, as it is again today.
Hmm Mr. Cantore believes severe weather could occur in more Eastern Areas
than does the SPC.
Jim Cantore
3 mins ·
In red, areas of possible severe weather today:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGBAIAIWEAAN9hJ.png
And someone posted back to him:
Jarid Leo✈ @jpleo2011 3m3 minutes ago
@JimCantore only a small portion of SNE has potential for severe today Jim according to spc and nws, not all of SNE
I agree with the SPC outlook for today. The slight risk area barely covers me. We see this a lot of times in May where you get a line that forms over NY state and PA that weakens as it approaches western parts of SNE and as it moves east really loses its punch due to a more stable airmass.
Agree totally. Not sure we even see a drop of rain in Eastern Sections. We shall see. 😀
That marine influence is a T-storm killer and really stabilizes the atmosphere.
I like how that factor is clearly indicated on all of the instability maps and the SPC outlook as well.
6z GFS for today looks to me any way to have a good handle on the situation today. Notice how that instability really goes down as you head east in SNE and areas near or at coast have no CAPE.
CAPE
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=CAPE&hh2=018&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=015
LIFT
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
EHI
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
6z NAM a little more bullish with the instablity but again picking up on the more stable air for areas near and at the coast.
CAPE
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
LIFT
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
EHI
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
ZERO rain for eastern MA today.
Did you read my mind? 😀
Wind from 200 Degrees. That will do it.
Nice day though, really nice.
Many days in June will be like this.
Happy Birthday shotime !
Thank you, Tom!
Intuitively, I’d think that Cape Cod, southern RI and coastal CT should be the most humid areas ….. and maybe they are, because they have the highest relative humidities.
But, they have the lowest dewpoints. Upper 50s in those areas vs low to now mid 60s in interior New England.
I’m guessing this goes to the principle that warmer air can hold more moisture than cooler air.
Tom I could feel a difference as each day goes by this week with the humidity becoming more noticeable. This certainly nothing oppressive but you could feel it. Sun is out where I am so that will add to the instablity present and I’ll be watching the radar later to see if anything develops.
Good luck for getting some rain !!
I got rain last Tuesday night from those storms. Will see what happens today. Just like in MA were in moderate drought here in CT.
Nice ….
I really cant recall the last time it rained even moderately in Marshfield. I think we may have gotten a few hundredths last Thursday night on the extreme northern edge of a coastal low’s rain shield.
It might be weeks, maybe even over a month since anything of significance has fallen.
I joked last week saying I forgot what rain sounded like until last Tuesday night when we had quite the light show along with heavy downpours.
11 AM Logan temperature = 79 with dew point of 65.
Wind from 200 Degrees. Worth noting that 10AM obs had wind at
190 Degrees.
Interesting as well, Albany NY is reporting tmep of 80 Degrees with the wind from
170 Degrees, which of course is East of Due South. The whole area is under
a marine influence. 😀
12z NAM continues its bullish theme with instability for today. I think NAM is over cooking the instablity like it usually does with snowfall amounts.
CAPE
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=CAPE&hh2=009&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=006
LIFT
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=006&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=006&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
EHI
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=006&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=006&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
Mt. Washington = 59F !!!!
We could do with some thunderstorms and rain. We’ve once again gone into water deficit mode. Who predicted this? You know who, TK, way back in mid winter. He said we would return to drought or drought-like conditions.
Haven’t experienced a drier May in a very long time.
Quite cold in some parts atop the world. See link below. Much cooler than average in Kimmirut. When will the snow and ice melt? Usually, the process has begun by now. The surrounding waterways are always ice-free in June. Maybe not this year. Time will tell.
http://www.camcentral.com/camviewer.php?script=listings&task=list&item=location&show=Canada&page=5&id=17446
SPC latest outlook pushes slight risk a little further east into SNE. I don’t agree with it. I liked the earlier outlook. Don’t think the storms will survive that far east in SNE.
Severe thunderstorm watch just posted for my county until 7pm
1PM Boston, temperature 83, Wind from 190 Degrees and dew point = 66
Hopefully, the temperature will NOT go up much more. 😀
SPC has areas north and west of Boston in marginal risk cateogory for tomorrow.
12z NAM just like today much more aggressive with the instablity for tomorrow than the 12z GFS.
87.4 with 67 DP and gusty
Oh and super clouds to watch today
Interesting line of storms just to the west of MA/NH border, up into VT and down to PA
Very windy here. Gusting well into teens.
I dont know if anyone else has seen/experienced this today, but with the wind and dry ground, there’s been some dust filled wind gusts in the last few hours since I’ve been outside. Went through one on the school grounds and another in our neighborhood during elementary school pickup.
Stratus has made it all the way to Marshfield from the south coast. Its mostly cloudy.
Manchester, Concord, Plymouth and Laconia, New Hampshire are all 90F at 4pm.
I think at least one of these locations hit 90F yesterday and I think they all have somewhat of a chance tomorrow at 90F.
One of these locations may record an official heatwave by days end tomorrow.
Fairly good sized tstorm warning box between 89 and 91 up that wat
Box just extended east to 93
For sure Vicki, I was just looking at that as well.
The cell just west of Lebanon looks very strong on radar.
They should have a lot of warmth to work with.
Concord, NH : 91F yesterday.
Tom, I am washing as much dirt from dust off of deck and porch furniture and porch floor. It is Nast.
It is ……
I hope this late Saturday front can get us some water.
I do also. And it should have said nasty. Sorry
Warnings showing up now in western ma and NW tip of CT
And a flash food warning above Lebanon
Oops. I must be hungry. Flood. Not food
JJ. You are now in warning box. Although last frame showed a bit of potential breaking up
Good grief. If it wasn’t something coastal said. Is it something I said?
We have warnings extending all the way to just west of worcester and no one is here
It’s definitely you this time. 🙂
Sighhhhh. I’m afraid you are right 🙁
LOL ! 🙂 🙂
As advertised. Look to,be dying down.
ECHO. ECHO. ECHO
Vicki by the time the line of storms got to me is weakened. Just some flashes of lightning rumbles of thunder and rain coming down at a moderate clip at times. The line was more impressive of the Hudson River Valley of NY.
I saw that sadly. Thanks JJ. But you got to see some flashes and hear some booms. ⚡️⚡️
Storms are doing the usual. Pooforama!! 😀 😀 As expected by the way.
I don’t think a drop will survive to the coast.
From NWS
ITS UNCERTAIN IF ANY SHOWERS
EVEN GET INTO CENTRAL MA AND EXTREMELY UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
More storms possible tomorrow as both american models showing enough instablity for thunderstorm development.
I was surprised to see the SPC issue a thunderstorm watch further east in SNE.
Tomorrow, SPC has Marginal Severe almost to Boston, but not quite.
We shall see IF that gets moved.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1432772960953
Cool⚡️⚡️⚡️☔️☔️☔️
Earlier today that marginal risk was up in parts of Maine. When the update came in around 1:30 they extended down to include areas north and west of Boston.
Some futurecasts I caught in TV this am showed some activity popping up in southeast MA tomorrow morning between 4-7.
I’ll take…my lawn looks like the gopher from Caddyshack declared war on it.
I’ll take…my lawn looks like the gopher from Caddyshack declared war on it.
Mine too:)
A friend of mine who is going to do some Hyrdoseeding offered to also bring the equipment over and do my lawn too..I think I might…Hyrdoseeding in pretty inexpensive.
Same here.
Interesting for parts of Eastern Colorado who are in just a general thunderstorm
threat are now in a Tornado watch.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
18Z NAM for tomorrow
EHI
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=027&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
Cape
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=027&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
LI
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=LI&hh=027&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
Perhaps it gets a little more interesting tomorrow. We shall see. 😀
That model was aggressive today with instability and is aggressive once again tomorrow with instability.
Blog updated!