Tuesday Forecast Update

26 Comments

8:32PM

SUMMARY…
The June chill continued during Tuesday, with Boston failing to reach 50 for the second straight day, and also setting the second consecutive record for the lowest high temperature for the date (June 1 & 2). Improvement is coming, and this will take place as high pressure pushes to the south and dries the air out Wednesday. It will still be on the cool side, though we’ll lose some of the chill. Thursday still looks like a fairly nice day as well – a little milder still, though sun may fight with some advancing clouds from a disturbance to the south. You may recall in earlier posts I was not confident of the late week and weekend period. One thing that will not be taking place is a warm-up back to the Summer feel of recent days in the short to medium term, as the pattern will be on the cooler side. It does not look as wet though, and we’ll be slipping back to a continuation of the overall dry regime, despite the moderate to heavy rain totals of the last few days. There will be some risk of showers later Friday from the combination of a disturbance from the south and a cold front from the northwest. Weak high pressure should be in control for much of the weekend, limiting rain chances, but not in any position to allow it to warm up significantly.

DAYS 1-5 (THROUGH JUNE 7)…
TUESDAY EVENING: Overcast, areas of drizzle/fog. Temperatures 45-50. Wind light NE.
TUESDAY LATE NIGHT: Clouds break, drizzle/fog departs. Lows 43-48. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Partial sun morning. Abundant sun afternoon. Highs 55-60 coast, 60s interior. Wind light N to NE 5-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-43 interior valleys 44-49 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 60-65 coast, 65-70 interior. Wind light SE.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s, cooler coast.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s, cooler coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 8-12)…
A weak trough over the Northeast will result in temperatures near to below normal and a few shower opportunities in the June 8-11 period, but by June 12 we may see a quick building of high pressure offshore and a quick turn to Summer warmth.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 13-17)…
High pressure ridge brings warm and fair weather early in the period, then a weak trough trying to push in from the Great Lakes region brings showers and thunderstorms and more seasonable temperatures thereafter.

26 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks, TK.

    It feels a little like November. I don’t mind, but I’m sure many do.

    My memory can elude me, but I do seem remember quite a number of early to mid June periods of cool (though not this cool) and relatively wet weather. Early to mid June is not a sure thing, in other words. Now if July 4th turns out to be a 49F day, then something really weird is going on.

    1. With certain patterns we are going to feel a damp chill. It may be June, but it’s still Spring and that ocean water is still pretty chilly, especially this year after the cold second half of Winter. We had said all along that this would have an impact one way or another. I suppose we were quite lucky in May to have run that warm with such a cold ocean right there in the “back yard”.

      Of course you do have your anomalous patterns such as 2001 which was a very cool Summer, and 1992, the other “year without a Summer” after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo.

      Right now we’re starting at a strengthening El Nino and a long term pattern that is going to be drier than normal. As I examine things, I can envision Summer’s temperatures ending up a little closer to normal or slightly above normal, versus a larger positive departure. We’re going to have several flip flops between what wants to be a ridge and disturbances coming along via the Great Lakes. Still in my mind it won’t be enough to put us on the plus side for the year in precipitation, as the tropics may be limited from too many direct contributions to precipitation events. We’ll have to rely on over-land transport, that is, disturbances coming from the west or northwest. These can be interesting though, as this pattern usually enhances the chances of severe weather – think August 1986 and July 1989, for examples. For those unfamiliar with those times, those were 2 New England severe weather/tornado outbreaks with northwest flow.

        1. I believe you are correct.

          I remember June 1982 quite well. Very, very wet.

          1. In 82 I was living on Beacon Street going up the hill from Charles Street back then and I remember the Public Gardens being flooded pretty badly.

  2. Thank you Tk. Sure must take you some time to put together these very informative posts, much more involved I suspect than before. Thank you for all of your hard work I very much apriciate it. Thank you.

  3. Thank you TK. I echo Johns thoughts. I love the new format and appreciate the extra extra time.

  4. Thank you!
    Some posts are easier than others to prepare.
    Yesterday’s was a chore because I just didn’t feel the descriptions flowing correctly. Today’s was a piece of cake. It’s just the nature of it. In the private sector, I used this format to issue text forecasts for every crop area in the world as well as energy forecasts. Some days it just poured like a water line with great pressure. Other days, the pipes were frozen. 😛

  6. It is amazing how quickly the rivers fill. I know we received in the vicinity of three inches. Where rhe Sudbury river was more mud than water, it is now swollen….not significantly but a fair amount. Of course as quickly as it fills, if we don’t continue to get rain, it will empty equally fast

  7. Thank you TK.

    Hey, I see some sunshine. What is that? I’m blinded!

    Now that Winter is over, can we have some nice weather?

  8. Thank you for your comment, TK. As always, much appreciated. We all learn a lot from you.

    I missed June `82. I was in Holland on my high school exchange program. But, I arrived back in the U.S. on the 29th of June, and it was raining as I recall. I took a Greyhound bus from NYC to Boston (in those days, flights from Europe to NYC were much cheaper than to Boston – so to save money I’d fly to NY and then hop on a bus). Everything looked very green on I-95 and I-84.

  9. TK – Regarding a “year without a summer” what about 2009? That is the only one that comes to mind other than 1717 of course.

    1. That was the one with the cold and wet June and July but the splendid August and September.

  10. I do remember quite well July 10, 1989 which TK was referring to. I was five years old at the time and just after 5pm that day the tornado F1 strength came through knocking a tree down in the front yard. I was scared and hugging my mom tight for she had lived through a tornado back in the early 60s that knocked shingles off the roof. The tornado came down that day back in July 1989 from the northwest tracking towards my area. Later a new tornado formed which was F4 strength that hit Hamden which is just north of New Haven. With the new fujita scale the strength of that tornado would have been EF 5 today.

    1. My friend chased into CT that day and caught the storm with the big tornado on it but it was on the other side of the rain and hail and obscured from his view.

  13. Stays like this the leaves will start changing color and we’ll be leaf-peeping by July 4th.

  14. A little disappointed with today’s weather. Hardly any sun at all so far today here in Wrentham, and cool too.

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