Saturday Forecast Update

47 Comments

11:11AM

DAYS 1-5…
THIS AFTERNOON: Increasing sun. Highs in the 60s coast, 70-75 well inland. Wind N to NE increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 40-45 interior valleys to around 50 coast. Wind light NE to N.
SUNDAY: Sunshine filtered at times but variable high clouds. Highs in the 60s coast, 70-75 well inland. Wind light variable with developing sea breezes.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with passing showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm through mid afternoon then becoming partly cloudy late. Lows in the 50s. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 interior occurring late.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows 55-62. Highs in the 70s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-62. Highs 70 coastal areas to 80 interior.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)…
Weak ridge provides fair and warm weather early in the period. Ridge tries to hold while weak trough tries to press in from the Great Lakes mid to late period. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase only slightly June 13-15 but widespread rain is not likely. Temperatures come down slightly to around normal during this time. Coastal locations will often be coolest during the daylight hours.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)…
Overall weather systems remain fairly weak with ridge near the East Coast and a broad west southwesterly flow from the middle of the country to the Great Lakes sending only weak fronts in the direction of the northeastern US. This pattern is one that features near to above normal temperatures and near to slightly below normal rainfall. Coastal areas will still be prone to sea breezes and cooler conditions due to the still-cool water temperatures.
Another passing low pressure trough brings some unsettled weather with episodes of showers and thunderstorms early in the period, then high pressure ridge returns with drier, warmer weather.

47 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast Update”

  1. REPOST of AccuWeather quizzes originally posted by Longshot…

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. What is the highest temperature recorded on this date in Boston?
    A. 98
    B. 100
    C. 102
    D. 103

    2. What is the height of the Atlantic hurricane season?

    A. May
    B. June
    C. September
    D. October

    Answers later today.

  2. A bit of humor (or panic?). This is not a disparaging comment about AccuWeather in any way, but their 45 day forecast for my city (Woburn) through July 19 has my high temp reaching or exceeding 80 only 11 times, with the highest being 88 (no 90s). Of course those forecasts must not be taken all that seriously beyond day 5, 6, or 7. I would not expect anyone to make solid plans on my 6-10 & 11-15 day forecasts, as they are just general thoughts about the upcoming pattern based on the application of the scientific method – a process we know has its flaws.

  3. Thank you TK.
    Don’t like the continuing theme of COOLER COAST!)(@#(&!@&#*&!@*#&

    I’l re-answer quizes:

    B&C

    1. With the water temp being “behind schedule” it’s to be expected. But still, escaped it in May much more than I would have thought possible.

      1. I understand that. Doesn’t mean I have to like it. 😈
        I have been following that water temperature for a long time.
        Have well understood it’s influence for a long long time.
        I still do NOT like it. 👿

    2. Mine were A and C. I’m glad one month was missing from #2 because I would have guessed it 🙂

    1. 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts. Extra anchoring, if possible, would be good. Wind should not be strong enough to cause problems.

      Band of clouds is lined up with the wind and is being caused by a small convergence line being pulled along by the circulation of an offshore storm and fueled by some cold air aloft. We’ll get rid of that in the next couple hours I believe.

  8. Posted wording from the SPC for Monday on previous blog which has us in general thunderstorm risk saying portions of Mid Atlantic and Northeast might need a categorical upgrade.

  10. Pretty nasty tornado watch out for Eastern Kansas and Nebraska. Pretty ominous wording from SPC:

    * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
    A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
    WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
    EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
    SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

  13. I’m seeing a good chance at rain Tuesday, do u concur tk? Thank you in advance 🙂

    1. Good chance there are showers around. Not a good chance of widespread beneficial rain.

  14. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. What is the highest temperature recorded on this date in Boston?
    A. 98
    B. 100
    C. 102
    D. 103

    2. What is the height of the Atlantic hurricane season?

    A. May
    B. June
    C. September
    D. October

    The answers are B & C.

    1. His power is staggering. It’s my understanding that His father earns 60,000 in stud fees because he has sired so many successful horses.

  18. Latest 18z runs of American models showing about 500 -1000 CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and Lift index between -2 and -4. Certainly enough there for thunderstorm development. Don’t see big see a severe weather outbreak with these thunderstorms.

  19. Let’s hope we don’t have to wait another 37 years for another Triple Crown. Hopefully they will come at least every few years (no more than 10).

    It is hard to believe that it has been 37 years since the “year” 1978. We had the Great Blizzard and I graduated from high school then on to college that year.

  20. SPC has us in general thunderstorm outlook for tomorrow.
    A Marginal Risk on Tuesday. From SPC
    …NEW ENGLAND AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTHEAST STATES…
    UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ONGOING EARLY DAY
    PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD
    FRONT…BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
    FOR STORMS TO DIURNALLY INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
    AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS OCCUR…A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD
    CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL
    POSSIBLE

  22. It looks that most of the day will be dry tomorrow. Any showers and storms look to hold off to after sunset.
    I am thinking should any thunderstorms form tomorrow night will be level 1 non severe storms.

  23. I am totally and completely confused by model severe parameters for Tuesday.
    The Nam doesn’t have it on Tueday, but rather Wednesday. Gfs and CMC have it
    Tuesday, but WEST of the Boston area. I guess it’s too early to tell at the moment.
    Monday’s threat seems to have gone Bye-Bye. Stay tuned.

    I sure don’t like the SPC wording of A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
    You know what that “could” mean. We’ll keep an eye out for that.

    1. I think they actually mean the bulk shear that could contribute to severe
      storms and not necessarily any tornadoes. Helicity is almost non-existent
      for Tuesday, however, very intense for Monday, but not much happening
      to tap that.

      Right now, I am not too concerned about any of that. Not severe and certainly not tornadoes. BUT I shall keep watching.

  24. Hi all! Just posted a new forecast.

    Going to expand a bit in comments below the new entry.

    I’ll be posting other entries with comprehensive commentaries when I can. These will have their own titles and easily spotted.

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