Tuesday Forecast Update

91 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5…
Cold front tracks slowly eastward across southern New England today bringing lots of clouds with a shower and thunderstorm threat. Though a few strong to severe storms are possible, I think severe weather will be limited. A few areas will see downpours, but we will not experience a widespread beneficial rain. High pressure brings fair weather Wednesday. A cold front brings a shower and thunderstorm threat Thursday along with a brief shot of heat and humidity. Warm, dry weather will return Friday with another high pressure area. But weather systems will be moving right along and the next one will bring wet weather to start the weekend, but should not be around long.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms at any time, then a broken line of showers and storms possible from west to east late afternoon or evening. Highs in the 70s, cooler some south-facing coastal areas. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and thunderstorms diminishing west to east. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 55-62.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70s south-facing coastal areas, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 58-65. Highs 70-75 South Coast ranging up to 80-85 interior.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s interior.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)…
Similar pattern continues with a shower and thunderstorm threat around June 15 and June 17. Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)…
High pressure ridge attempts to become more established in the eastern US with above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall, but still some risk of showers and storms from passing disturbances in a nearby jet stream.

91 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast Update”

  5. NWS expects any “possible” severe weather today to stay North and West of the City.
    Depends on how much heating we get this afternoon.

    Personally, I am much more concerned about a Severe threat on Thursday.

    Will continue to watch.

  7. I don’t have any sunshine out my window. On days like today any sunshine is self destructing.
    SPC does have us in marginal risk for Thursday.

  8. Slight risk area pushed back a little further west in latest update
    …NE PA/ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON…
    A WELL-DEFINED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN PA THIS MORNING
    WILL PIVOT ENEWD OVER NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
    EVENING. THE ZONE OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL WAVE…AND AN
    ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE…WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
    DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NERN
    PA INTO ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MIDEVEL LAPSE
    RATES WILL BE RATHER POOR…SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND
    BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE
    VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THIS BUOYANCY…IN COMBINATION WITH
    EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT…WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED MULTICELL
    CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS…AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.
    DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN…THOUGH 500 MB
    TEMPERATURES COOLING TO -12 TO -14 C WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR
    MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL

    1. Good description. That is what it is like here and probably all over
      Eastern sections. 😀

  12. FYI

    Boston, Blue Hill and Norwood all have wind from 190 Degrees. That’s almost
    Due South. See Ya Thunderstorms around these parts! Only Possible farther West
    where the marine influence is lessened or not there.

    Speaking of marine…Last evening did anyone notice the layer of stratus moving in
    from the South? It looked pretty cool.

  13. I agree about eastern most New England with a reduced risk of severe weather ….

    but ……

    on water vapor and infrared, that is an impressive disturbance out in western NY and thunderstorms, at 10am, are already popping on the eastern edge of the precip shield out there.

    I think eastern NY , VT, NH and maybe northwestern and north-central MA may be in for a very stormy afternoon.

      1. Indeed ….

        There seems to be a wedge of sunshine developing between the precip area in western NY State and the cloudiness/light precip area in Vermont.

        I’d assume that should translate eastward with time, just in time for the high sun angle and max heating around 12 to 4 pm.

  14. Looking ahead to Thursday here is what 6z GFS shows
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=TF&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

  15. Thursday likely presents a more potent setup HOWEVER…
    Front too fast?
    Limited moisture?
    Early feeling is watch out south of the Pike in the afternoon. If something happens that will probably be the place.

    1. This would be an interesting pattern should it continue for several weeks.

      Would have to figure on one occasion, everything might come together.

      I feel like I need practice with zonal flow, it feels like its been so long since we’ve seen it for a prolonged period of time.

      1. The first thing to remember is that model forecasts are almost always too slow.

  17. I was just outside. Reasonable amount of SunShine out there. Getting really Humid, However, I have to tell you, the MARINE Influence can be felt here. Even though the wind is from the South, there is a cool feeling to that wind. It is NOT a real warm wind at all. Not cold, but rather a bit coolish. It should KILL any convection in Eastern Sections.

    Out West, well that could be a different story.

  18. Odd odd odd. Rainshine and I are not far apart and we have not seen a speck of sun here. At the moment, the sky is getting darker.

  19. There are clear skies just over the boarder in the Hudson Valley region of NY. Hopefully that self destructing sunshine stays out there. The sunshine will only destablize the atmosphere and bring a front through to provide the lift then your looking at thunderstorm potential.

  20. We have cloud decks at 3 heights. The combo at any given time and place has been the determining factor in amount of sun.

  23. Sorry for the brief interruption in weather… A sad day in Mansfield . Celebrating the life of young Shane Farrell stuck and killed by a school bus. Parents and children turned out with Red Balloons ( his favorite color) and lined Main St. to honor Shane and his family. Rest in Peace Shane and thoughts and prayers for his family

  24. I didn’t see it on anyone else’s posts today (and if you wrote about it, I am sorry), but today is the 62nd anniversary of the Worcester Tornado. Upon reading more about that day, I didn’t realize that there was also a separate F3 storm into Norfolk and Bristol counties.

    1. I saw that TK had mentioned it on FB but did not see it mentioned here. Thank you.

      When Todd Gross was at WHDH, he hosted a gathering for the spotters. Bill Chittick was invited to present a PowerPoint and discussion on the Tornadoes. He was fascinating and took all of the time we wanted to answer questions.

      This is the PPT. I am never sure the links work so will try it

      https://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference/presentations-second/6%20-%20Eleanor%20Vallier-Talb/FlintWorcester1953_2ndTri-State_April_2009.ppt

      1. I believe it worked. If not, please let me know and I’ll see what I can do. I sure enjoyed it.

          1. You’re very welcome. He was fascinating to listen to and thought the tornado should be reclassified in strength. I seem to recall it was, but others here may know more.

        1. I was thinking of getting the book. Thank you, OS, for confirming it is a worthwhile investment.

      3. Vicki, EXCELLENT and thank you. I had not seen that before.
        The link did not work per se, but it did allow me to download
        the power point to my computer where I could launch it and view it. thank you again!!!!

  27. 12z EURO has a very warm solution for overnight Friday into early parts of Saturday (at least at 850mb). Whether or not that is fully realized at the surface due to wind direction, cloud cover and time of day is another matter.

    15-18C at 850mb, surface low pressure crossing northern New England.

  28. One of our meteorologist here in CT in his technical discussion yesterday was mentioning Saturday and where a front would be would be the key. If it is south of us were in cool stable however its north of us were in a warm unstable air with the possiblity of severe weather.

    1. Looks like the track on the 12z runs are definitely north.

      I would offer that both the 12z GFS and EURO look warmer overall, over the next 10 days comparatively, to their most recent runs.

  29. Was just down town where it was raining a bit.
    Also, wind seemed to have an Easterly component to it.
    Official Obs is South, but It looked like 170 Degrees to me.
    Could be my orientation where I was. I dunno, but sure looked East of Due
    South.

  30. Quite a line of storms along the eastern NY border. Blue sky through white clouds here now.

    1. One thing I will say, abundant sunshine here now and for awhile now.
      Still thing it doesn’t matter due to South wind.

  36. Frequently, I like to check the (WPC ??) forecasted temps for 3 to 7 days out …..

    Well, today’s projections havent gone as planned in the nations midsection.

    Currently, its 90F to 98F in a large area including Minneapolis, all of Iowa, S Dakota, Nebraska, etc.

    I do not recall seeing projections that high for that area a few days ago.

  37. Lots of sun here also. However, even if the stoems we’re do get this far, they’d part around framingham 🙁

    1. 😆 😆

      Framingham far more likely to see some precip from these storms than
      Boston, that’s for sure. 😀 But even so, they could poof out prior to Framingham even. We’ll have to watch and see.

      What is the wind direction in Framingham? Sw or South?
      Do you have the Degrees available?

        1. Makes sense to me. Consistent with what I have seen.
          See my post below. They will DIE before they reach you.
          My current thoughts anyway. Let’s see what kind of prediction that is. 😀

  39. storms “appear” to be commencing their decay. Perhaps my eye deceive me, but
    dare I say, I do detect a slight weakening. Once they pass Worcester, SEE YA!
    POOFARAMA!!!

    1. I see it too. One thing I am pretty comfortable with is reading the intensity and direction on the radars

  41. Warning extended to just west of framingham. See the center of the line that is falling apart? That is the area headed to framingham

    2. Nice picture. We thought the one here was the brightest we’d ever seen but my pic didn’t do it justice either

  47. Saturday does not look good. This really stinks. Whatever happened to the forecast (eg, Epstein in yesterday’s(!) blog) saying essentially no rain this week! It’s a friend’s birthday, and we were planning on biking with a group on Block Island. We’ll still do it, but better weather would make things a whole lot nicer. Weeks on end of dry weather (well, except for 2 days last week) and Saturday the 13th of June will likely be a wet one. Let’s hope it’s just an occasional shower. Cloudiness is fine.

  48. Flub a dub dub see the storms turn dud!
    POOF! That was an easy prediction.

    Next. Oh wait, Thursday the timing is bad and the instability goes South. See YA on that one.

    Now Saturday? Something will happen and it will remain dry.

  49. Eduardo Rodríguez is tossing goose eggs at Baltimore through 5 innings.
    Even if he implodes, this kid is IMPRESSIVE and looks to be the REAL DEAL!!!

    GO Eduardo!!!!

    Oh btw, Ramirez fouled a ball off of his foot and had to leave the game.
    Why don’t we get players that can stay in the game??????

  50. .40 torrential rain in two bursts. The second produced the double rainbow that it seems was seen all over eastern MA.

  53. Showers/storms behaved about as expected.
    A beautiful rainbow enjoyed by many. I’ve seen so many pictures along with the several I took.
    Beautiful day tomorrow.
    T-storm threat Thursday but front may be timed to pass early afternoon and limit activity.
    Beautiful day Friday.
    Don’t fall into the terrible Saturday trap. Given the overall pattern and the tendency of models to be too slow with systems in this set-up, lean toward a wet early Saturday and a great finish.

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