Wednesday Forecast Update

49 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5…
The next 3 days will have a Summer feel. Small bubbles of high pressure will bring fair weather Wednesday and Friday. A minor interruption comes Thursday as a cold front swings through. A couple things about this front: 1) It will be fast-moving and moisture-starved, and this timing will spare much of the region from showers and t-storms, though areas mainly south and southeast of Boston will run the risk of some activity. 2) The air behind the front won’t really be any cooler than what is ahead of it. The front will be more defined by a spike of humidity just ahead of it and some drying of the air behind it. We’ll have to wait for a stronger cold front to bring temperatures down a notch, and that will take place on the weekend. My early feeling is that a cold front will charge across southeastern New England during the first half of Saturday when there will be a shower and thunderstorm threat, after which the air will dry out during the second half of Saturday and set the region up for wonderful weather for Sunday, which is also Flag Day.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible late morning through early afternoon south of the Mass Pike. Highs upper 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Lows 58-65. Highs 78-85.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Lows 60-67. Highs 75-82.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 15-19)…
A few shower and thunderstorm threats as disturbances traverse the jet stream over the top of a ridge of high pressure centered in the east central US. Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)…
Similar pattern remains locked in for this period as well. Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall below normal.

49 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast Update”

  1. Thank you TK

    JR said there may be a have today from the fires in Alberta. Not a health concern.

  2. Thank you TK.
    I’m certainly not worried about tomorrow.

    Latest runs show pretty impressive instability parameters for Saturday.
    All seem to have fropa in the afternoon and not morning.

    Wondering what I might be missing??

    Right now I am somewhat concerned about Saturday, but realize that’s a ways off
    yet and there could be timing issues. If that front approaches in the AM, then
    of course there is much less risk if any at all.

    We’ll continue to watch as always.

  4. NWS discussion re: SATURDAY

    THE ECMWF IS QUICKEST WITH THE FRONT AND WEAKEST WITH THE WIND
    FIELDS…WHICH WOULD JUST RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
    A FEW EMBEDDED GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING.
    MEANWHILE…THE GFS/GGEM INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
    OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY LATE
    MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS WE COULD SEE A FEW
    STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS…DESPITE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES.
    ALSO…PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES COULD RESULT IN A VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING
    POTENTIAL IF STORMS CAN TRAIN OVER A REGION FOR A TIME.

  5. Why do we have a bunch of mushrooms in our yard? I thought they arrived when it was wet. Perhaps am wrong.

    1. Maybe that 3 inches of rain last week was enough??? I dunno.

      We get a couple on occasion, but not very often. 😀

      1. I think a good portion of that ran off and was back to being really dry almost immediately. Odd as we also typically get just a few.

  6. Not that the NAM is the super star of computer models and most especially at
    84 hours, but for what it is worth, the 12Z NAM now wants to keep us DRY for
    Saturday. We will have to wait and see if other models follow.

  7. If you have the spores in the yard, the recent rain was enough to initiate mushroom growth. Topsoil was wet just long enough. I’ve seen a few in my neighborhood.

  10. What an awesome day at Fenway. My company is the largest sponser for ABCD in Boston so we are playing a softball game against Suffolk construction. Wally was there etc… The boys had a blast. Take a look at my FB page and you will see it.

        1. Hadi,

          That is totally awesome. So happy you and the family arre having such a great time. What a perfect day for it!

        2. Hadi was that you in the third picture. Also that is machine pitch is what I was told is that true. Maybe next year I will go as we do it every year.

  11. I think with the very little rain in the forecast over the next 7 to 10 days, the lawns in the area will go dormant soon. The lack of rain and possible heat coming will cause more city and town water bans.

        1. I’m thinking we will. I feel as if it is literally spitting into the wind….if you will pardon the expression

  12. Thanks tk 🙂
    Nice day today, how much rAin tomorrow tk ? Thank you!!

    3 of the top 10 best selling jerseys in America are Patriots jerseys. Brady,Gronk and Edleman. Also I might add that the Patriots sales are up 327% from last year too date. #keephatin 🙂

    1. Isolated 0.25 inch+ tomorrow south of the Mass Pike
      Same on Saturday morning anywhere.
      Next chance is Monday but does not look like much.

  13. No surprises being tossed this way by Mother Nature, pattern-wise. The evolution of the pattern has now moved us away from the long lasting cold pattern (actually that was done by April) but now that we have established several weeks of that pattern being gone – it’s official. Flat ridge central and eastern US is a good pattern for June, but the flatness of the ridge does allow regular disturbances to come along and do quick air mass changes and shower/t-storm threats. Still no widespread beneficial rain in sight. The recent event was an anomaly in a long-lasting dry pattern.

  14. Is there anyone into “birding” or know about common, native birds?
    Is it my imagination, or are the number of birds way down this spring?
    With the exception of some robins, I have hardly any birds in the backyard or in the birdbath. I even put out some seed and all it attracted, it seems, was a couple of hungry squirrels.

    Could the wicked winter weather have killed many of them off? Some of trees look sick in the neighborhood. We had a tough spring with the winter moth caterpillars and two of the trees haven’t even sprouted leaves yet. One of the trees seems to be dying off from the bottom to the top

    Any thoughts on the birds and the trees?

    1. Agree on trees. They croaked our Japanese Cherry tree.

      re: Birds

      To be honest, I was surprised at the numbers I have seen since that brutal Winter. It is one of my daily pleasures to walk out the front door to get to my
      vehicle and listen to all of the birds chirping away. Sometimes there are so many they wake me up in the morning.

      Our birds are mostly:

      Robins
      Cardinals
      Blue Jays
      Sparrows
      Chickadees
      Crows
      Grackles
      Mocking Birds

      Damn Raccoons sure survived the Winter!!! I have aluminum trash barrels
      with a very tight aluminum cover on them that takes a good deal of force
      to shut it tightly. Still those damn raccoons get the cover open and jump in
      and rip everything apart.

    2. We were saying the same thing. We have always had food out in summer. We range from cardinals to goldfinch to purple and house finch and titmice and ….oh I can’t think of it but walks up and down tree…and then the regulars. But food is lasting far longer. I can hear the goldfinches but they are not eating the thistle.

  15. Mobile in peabody.
    Interesting cloud cover moving in.
    Anything getting active tonight?
    Smells and feels like storminess
    Is on the way.

    1. I see some action upstate ny and vt.
      Wpc surface map shows warm front
      Growing across ny state.

  16. Do not let your lawn go, if you do, it will cost u too replac it :$ that is of course yoo care about your lawn 🙂

      1. How often and long should you run a sprinkler system. I have 5 zones and run it three times a week for 30 minutes each. I still have a brown patch between two heads, but it gets a good amount of water.

        1. It will keep the microbial activity in the thatch layer active, that’s good coastal, 3 times a week during this time of yr is good, even though you’ll have some browning 🙂

    2. Charlie,
      The last time we mowed the lawn – 3rd time this season, we had this gray fluff (lots of it) in the grass catcher bag. After some research, I came across “snow mold”. Your thoughts on this? Also, have several brown areas where the grass normally grows quite well.
      Thanks!

      1. Lots of snow mold this year, a light raking too those areas will also the areas too breath q bit,

  17. I am a bit surprised with the surface winds this morning.

    Burlington, VT still southerly …..

    I thought the “cold” front was supposed to be closer to the Mass border with southern VT and NH this morning …….

    If its a little slower, could this put a bit more area than just the Pike southward in the thunderstorm potential …….

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