Tuesday Forecast Update

69 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5…
A cold front slogs through the region today and this evening and produces the risk of showers and thunderstorms, especially later today and this evening. A few of these may produce heavy rain. Any stronger storms would be confined to inland locations but the chance of these is rather low. A few areas may see some beneficial rain but this will be more of an isolated occurrence rather than a widespread event. High pressure moves in for midweek with nice weather. A disturbance brings clouds back later Thursday through early Friday with a shower risk. Improving weather during Friday and a great start to the weekend expected.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy light fog in the morning. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly mid afternoon on. Highs in the 70s, some upper 60s coast. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and a chance of thunderstorms evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 55-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny AM. Increasing clouds PM. Showers at night. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Showers early. Lows 60-65. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-65. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 interior.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)…
Remains of Tropical Storm Bill will likely pass mostly northwest of New England later in the weekend but a cold front approaching may set off some showers and thunderstorms anyway. At this stage it does not look like a wash-out. A break early in the week before midweek showers. Temperatures variable during the period may average out around normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)…
The last 5 days of the month are expected to feature the attempt of a flat ridge in the east but a still-close-by jet stream and west to east flow. This type of pattern brings regular but passing disturbances with brief shower and t-storm threats with generally near to below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures.

69 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I wonder what happens in Texas and if they make it through the next 24 to 48 hrs without severe flooding.

  3. Many thanks TK. How did the Mrs. Enjoy or not enjoy the game last night?
    7th loss in a row! What a pathetic team!

  4. Thank you once again. Wow the air was so heavy this a.m. and the dew so thick. I played nine holes at 6 am. It was just so wet!

  5. Nam and CMC have ZERO Cape for today and I mean ZERO.
    GFS has minimal Cape across Western Sections.

  6. Good morning and thank you, TK! Did Mrs. TK enjoy the game? Just being at Fenway is an experience.

    Saw a picture of Humarock on FB this am. It was all socked in.

  8. Re: Red Flops from John Tomase

    The Red Sox may have sounded angry, but they didn’t play like it. They instead took the field with all the fire of a terrier rolling over to have its belly scratched, grounding into three double plays in the first three innings and trudging off the field with their seventh straight loss.

      1. I have NOT watched a game yet.
        I check in now and then, especially when the kid Rodriguez
        pitches. 😀

      1. Gfs does not keep any kind of circulation for it, but brings some
        moisture this way. We shall see. Looks to me as if it has
        a chance to mostly poof out before it gets here.

  10. SPC has marginal risk CT River Valley west. A lot of clouds with limited sun. I don’t expect much in the way of strong activity unless that sun comes out for a few hours. There has not been one thunderstorm day this year so far that has excited me.
    I did post the tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan on the previous blog and he said
    Its been a quiet severe weather season here so far thankfully but I think things pick up quite a bit in the long term worth watching.

  12. Vicki, since you are a horse aficionado, did you ever
    See a horse with a buggy behind? Just curious. 😀

  13. Still got the rest of June all of July and August to get some good thunderstorms to track.
    Last Friday we were fortunate to be in the stable air where just to our west in New York State they had numerous severe weather reports.

    1. Just as well. Who needs severe weather. Just get the required amount
      of rain we need and that’s it. No more, no less. 😀

  15. 12Z NAM has virtually no CAPE in Eastern sections and has about 1,000 Joules
    in far Western Sections. Look at the hourly maps, it shows plenty of rain to the
    West, then DRYING UP towards the East with only very light amounts for Boston.

    1. ManureGate or Shitgate?

      Talk about blowing smoke out one’s ass, even if it is an equine ass.

      I love it! Seriously, I wonder how the smoke would smell while burning this crappy mixture?

      1. Horse manure doesn’t really smell. It is basically ground up grass or hay with some pellets which are also grains. It is a brilliant idea. Our special interest groups would not allow it in a million years.

        1. Umm, I think you are so used to it.
          It smells to high heavens if you ask me.

          I have a thing with smells and I don’t react well to
          fowl smells.

          Given that, I think that horses are the most beautiful
          animals on the planet (other than women!) I love horses, I just don’t like the smell of their excrement. 😀

  20. On a non-weather note: To be out of contention – and the Red Sox are, folks – on June 16th is utterly inexcusable, given the money that has been thrown at this team. I like Pedroia, but the first thing he should have said is “as a team we apologize to the fans for our poor play on the field.” Indirectly the fans are paying the astronomical salaries. So when people say “it’s not my money,” I say, well it is: Highest ticket prices in baseball, ludicrously expensive concessions, $60 parking, etc … For the money and time spent on attending games and caring about baseball the fans and media in Boston deserve better. Accountability is somehow lost on these players.

  21. Thanks, TK.

    Sun coming out occasionally here in Sudbury – sometimes very strongly. At this time of year, it’s hard for the sun not to come out, unless we’re getting a hurricane or a big storm. However, I do remember the summer of 2009 – June and July were cloudy and rather cool, but not much rain. Then, in Aug. it got sunny and hot.

    I would like to see a garden-style thunderstorm – a little wind, some thunder and lightning and some heavy rain to relieve at least a little of the drought.

    BTW, my sister said to me this morning it looks like it won’t thunder – so cloudy. I told her that we could get some sun which could “destabilize” the atmosphere – and we could get some strong thunderstorms if the “shear” was right and whether or not we had a “cap”. Now, I’m still no expert and if you ask me to give a better explanation, not sure I could. But I impressed her! She said “are you reading that? How do you know that?” I just laughed and said I’m a weather-nut and I belong to a great weather blog with people who love the weather like I do.

    Just a quick thanks again to everyone and especially TK for this great blog!

    1. Its quite warm and humid in Marshfield. I know because we just had a fire drill. When the sun broke through the clouds, it was very hot standing out in it.

      If the dynamics are there, I think there might be enough warmth/humidity near the surface. Maybe that stuff out in eastern NY State could hold together ??

  24. Thanks for all the compliments on my post! 🙂

    It is cloudy here now but very sticky out.

  25. The movement of the line is different than what we have seen recently. Today’s line is moving to the south east.

  26. Eric F tweet about TS Bill. And I agree it’s going to cause a mess in TX.

    @ericfisher: You don’t have to be textbook to create problems. #Bill just about as ugly as a Tropical Storm can get. #blob http://t.co/GCyMCOGZiH

  27. NWS Taunton:

    A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SET UP IN SNE
    THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
    TSTMS. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
    FAIRLY ROBUST BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING.

  32. Judging by models Sunday is looking stormy. Will this be widespread tk? Sorta like its depicted now? Thank you!! 🙂

    2. That would be shown on only a couple runs of a couple models. There is far from enough evidence to go for a stormy day overall.

      I will not rule out part of the day being rather wet at this point, but timing is uncertain this far out, as well as whether or not any moisture from Bill is directly involved and if so, how much. At 5 days away, those questions cannot be answered, regardless of what the media may lead you to believe.

          1. We haven’t used ACS yet. One needs replacing. One is cleaned. The master bedroom needs someone strong to remove cover so I can clean it. Might take all summer 🙁

  34. Every so often I take a look at the AccuWeather 45-day forecast for my area. Today’s version has the highest temperature through July 30 at 84 on July 1 including an 8-day overcast stretch July 8-15. 😉

    1. It fits this pattern.

      I wonder if this is locked in.

      The 12z GFS amazed me with the zonal flow, the Alaska ridge (18 to 21C at 850mb in interior Alaska) ….. all of these features day after day after day. We wont go 2 or 3 days without some kind of disturbance or front, hardly any chance to significantly warm up.

      1. Well 84 is fine. Mac’s family flying in on July 11 so hope to have a cookout…..lobster fest.

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