Friday Forecast Update

62 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5…
A cold front pushes through southern New England from northwest to southeast this morning. High pressure builds in Saturday then quickly gives way to another approaching cold front and the remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Bill on Sunday resulting in an unsettled forecast for Sunday. The bulk of the tropical moisture from Bill may end up passing south of southern New England, however, during the first half of Sunday, based on current timing. This would limit the rainfall and possibly allow for the second half of the day to be not as bad as it may have been, despite a shower and thunderstorm threat. High pressure returns Monday and yet another frontal system will push through on Tuesday, this one with limited moisture to worth with.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers. A risk of a broken band of heavier showers near the South Coast early this afternoon. Highs 70s South Coast, 78-83 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 50s. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 60-65. Highs 68-75.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows around 60. Highs around 80, cooler South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)…
Fairly weak weather systems in a fast-moving jet stream. Limited rainfall. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29-JULY 3)…
Trough passes through Northeast early in the period, but low amplitude, may bring some showers and cooler air before it warms back to near to above normal levels with still a few shower and thunderstorm threats around later in the period.

62 thoughts on “Friday Forecast Update”

  1. First on Friday!
    Thanks, TK!!!

    Happy Summer Solstice and Father’s Day weekend!

  2. Thanks TK! Maybe Bill can move even further south of SNE? I know we need rain but it is just poor timing.

  4. Thank you TK.

    Looks to be starting to clear here. Was really cloudy earlier.

    Keep Bill SOUTH on Sunday. Thank you.

    Total aside.

    While fishing on Wednesday AM, I caught something out of the corner of my eye.
    It was a rather large (not the largest I have seen) Water Snake of some sort. He was swimming in the water and slithered on the bank and nearly came right over the top
    of my sneakers. He stopped for awhile right in front of me and it allowed me to
    admire it’s beauty. A magnificent creature. It was mostly blackish in color with
    some reddish coloration along the sides that wouldn’t be noticeable without a close
    examination which I was able to do by bending over and getting about 2 feet from
    the snake. It stayed for a few minutes before finally meandering off. Great experience.

    I believe it was a Northern Water snake. See image below (which by the way was taken near the Sudbury River)

    http://www.sudburyvalleytrustees.org/sites/default/files/20060910_Northern%20Water%20Snake_DavidBlohm.jpg

    1. I would have freaked. Not many things bother me at all but I’m petrified of snakes.

        1. I’m with John. Not many things bother me but snakes are one of them. I would have screamed and I am not a screamer. Daughter said there are a lot of those snakes behind Bass Pro Shop. Ewwwwww.

          Remember, I am a fisherwoman but I also do not take fish off of the hook. Yes, I got a lot of grief for that. But the darned things say stock still until you try to grab them and then they flop. Ewwwwww. And the perch hurt unless you grab them just right.

          1. Mrs. OS will fish with me on occasion, but she will not bait the hook nor will she take them off the hook. SO when she comes with me, I spend more time baiting and removing fish than I do fishing. 😀
            Taking them off the hook is not a problem at all.
            One has to know how to hold them, especially the catfish (bullheads around these parts). 😀

            Most women are afraid of snakes. Not Mrs. OS.
            She used to work at the Children’s museum
            and handled a rat snake to show the children.
            She would not scream at the sight of a snake.

            1. I like Mrs. OS. I don’t mind baiting. I was telling my kids the other day that when we fished in Lake Champlain (from Isle la Motte) I would catch toads and when I hooked them under the chin bone they’d squeak. Oddly that never bothered me. Just flopping fish and I always loosened my grasp before I got it right. My fault.

              1. Hooking toads or frogs or salamanders bothered me.
                I would do it, but I really didn’t like hooking them. Didn’t use themfor bait very often. I prefer(ed) live night crawlers although I have caught many fish on various lures, corn, bread, sea worms, clams, fish eyes, cut fish hunks, bologna, hot dogs etc. etc. 😆

                2. Yep – everything but sea works…they are disgusting although I am not a fan of salt water fishing.

  5. Thanks TK, that’s my kind of forecast. Really been enjoying this pattern. Not a HHH fan. It’ll come though.

    I’ll give my own aside as well: Yesterday, as they do every month, NOAA released their analysis for global May 2015 temperature, precipitation, and significant events. From their reports, May 2015 was the warmest May on record (global temp anomaly of +0.87C). Year to date (Jan-May) is also warmest on record, meaning Earth is very likely to see its second consecutive warmest year on record. Global ocean temperatures for May were also warmest on record. Food for thought.

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201505

    1. Front is through. Dew point has dropped from 63 to 61 at Logan.
      We’ll see what 2PM Obs brings. Oh and wind is from 320 Degrees.

  10. Both 12z runs of American models showing instability CT River Valley west for Sunday which is pretty similar to the SPC outlook placing that area in a marginal risk.

  11. 2Pm at Logan. temp 82, dew point 58 wind from 340 at 11 knots gusting to 18 knots.
    NICE!!!

    80.8 here.

  12. I didn’t realize that the CMC has a new high resolution short range forecast model
    It is only available for the Quebec region, but that include All of New England. Awesome!

    CMC-HRDPS / Quebec (mesh: 2.5 km interpolated to 5 km)

    Here’s an example, 2M temperatures

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&run=12&stn=TT2m&hh=007&map=qc&stn2=TT2m&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=007&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

      1. Hahaha, it was supposed to be a smiley with sunglasses but it didnt work for some reason 😎

    1. YIKES! Will it EVER end? People are out of their freakin minds in this
      Country. Something Is seriously, seriously WRONG. I have ideas, but
      In the interest of peace, I’ll keep quiet.

      1. I suspect you and I have similar ideas. I keep saying my father-in-law worked in Rome through the red brigade era. He had regular training on what to do if kidnapped and Mac’s mom’s car was bombed. He repeatedly said Americans have no idea what terrorism really is. We’d better wake up because it is getting far too frequent.

    2. A BU police officer who shot a person he was following. The person was carrying a knife and making threats.

    1. I heard something on the news about so much water in the ground that it was feeding Bill a bit. I paraphrased that and it was yesterday so I’ve had 24 hours to totally confuse myself. Does that make any sense?

    1. Thank you, OS. If there is one good thing to come from this, there is a witness and hopefully the police won’t take the brunt at least this time. You are so right that people are out of their minds.

      1. I still don’t like the sounds of this.
        I don’t trust BU police at all.
        I sure HOPE that this individal was not black.

        1. BU police have the same academy, etc. training as Boston Police and are authorized to pursue. And a state cop was involved also. There appear to be a bunch of witnesses. I hope too that the individual was not black. But ya know, I hope even more that we can do something about this because every cop is now second guessing himself.

  21. Echo, lol. 🙂

    The NWS discussion this morning is worth a read. Definitely looks like we’re entering a very active pattern. 1-2″ of rain possible from Bill the ever-living tropical cyclone tomorrow? Severe weather threat Tuesday? Major East Coast trough and additional wet weather early next week? Looks like fun times.

  22. The PGA Tour is coming here to CT next week and it always seems during that week when the tour is here for whatever reason we get some potent thunderstorms. In fact during the tournament weeks in 2009 and 2010 there were two tornado touchdowns in 2009 EF 1 in Wethersfield and 2010 EF 1 in Bridgeport.

  23. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz
    (I did not try to answer this one because I thought the right answer was missing.)

    Summer solstice occurs at 12:38 PM tomorrow. Solstice literally means …
    A. Latest sunset
    B. Sun directly overhead
    C. Sun strengthening
    D. Sun standing still

    Answer later today.

    3. The real answer should be the Sun is the farthest North It gets all year for Summer Solstice or farthest South for Winter Solstice. OR technically:

      A solstice is an astronomical event that occurs twice each year as the Sun reaches its highest or lowest excursion relative to the celestial equator on the celestial sphere. >/i>

      I really don’t see that answer there at all.

      Great call LongShot. These come from InAccuWeather? Correct?
      That explains it. 😆

      1. But there is a literal meaning to solstice. It took me a few minutes to figure out that is what was being asked

  25. WxWatcher mentioned NWS discussion re: Tuesday.
    Latest models indicate action may stay West of Boston Area.

    Here is the latest Significant tornado ingredients

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f087.gif

    And EHI from the CMC

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_qc_00/HI_PN_090_0000.gif

    Li

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_qc_00/LI_PN_UU_VV_090_0000.gif

    Cape

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_qc_00/BE_BE_PN_090_0000.gif

  26. New forecast posted!
    I reposted the quiz.

    Heading to York Beach in Maine for most of the day and then to Chief Will’s Day in Middleton MA later today and tonight. Guess I picked the right day for the outdoor stuff!

  27. 6z GFS looks similar to the CMC where the most instablity sets up.
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=EHI&hh2=102&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=090
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=090&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=090&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

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