Saturday Forecast Update

66 Comments

8:45AM

DAYS 1-5…
Here is a quick update on quite a bit going on as we head into the weekend of the Summer Solstice. First, not a bad day today as high pressure dominates, though some high cloudiness will be coming in at times in advance of the moisture from Tropical Storm Bill, which has essentially held together as a tropical system over land for a very long time. Clouds thicken up by tonight and rain arrives overnight. Much of the region now looks in line for a pretty good dose of rain during the first 2/3 of Sunday as Bill crosses the region from west southwest to east northeast ahead of an approaching cold front. We may see some clearing and a muggy feel to the air as Bill departs and the cold front is still off the northwest. That front may produce some showers and thunderstorms at night. A second disturbance may kick off another shower or thunderstorm sometime on Monday but overall that should be a decent day. The next disturbance will bring a chance of a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday. We get a break Wednesday of next week as high pressure moves in.
TODAY: Sun and clouds with sun losing the battle later in the day from southwest to northeast. Highs 65-70 immediate coast, 70s inland. Light wind with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain arriving overnight. Lows around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH and gusty.
SUNDAY: Cloudy into afternoon with rain and embedded thunderstorms. Downpours likely. Breaking clouds later in the day with some clearing possible. Humid. Highs in the 70s, some 60s immediate coastal areas. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Lows around 60. Highs around 80, cooler coast.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Lows around 60. Highs in the 70s, coolest coast.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 75-80, cooler some coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 25-29)…
Another disturbance brings a shower risk later Thursday June 25. Fair weather but below normal temperatures June 26-28. Wet weather possible by June 29 as a trough deepens over the Northeast.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 30-JULY 4)…
A cool and damp start to this period then a trend to warmer with a couple shower and thunderstorm threats.

66 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast Update”

  1. Repost of the quiz!

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz
    (I did not try to answer this one because I thought the right answer was missing.)

    Summer solstice occurs at 12:38 PM tomorrow. Solstice literally means …
    A. Latest sunset
    B. Sun directly overhead
    C. Sun strengthening
    D. Sun standing still

    Answer later today.

  3. The real answer should be the Sun is the farthest North It gets all year for Summer Solstice or farthest South for Winter Solstice. OR technically:


    A solstice is an astronomical event that occurs twice each year as the Sun reaches its highest or lowest excursion relative to the celestial equator on the celestial sphere.

    I really don’t see that answer there at all.
    Great call LongShot. These come from InAccuWeather? Correct?
    That explains it.

    So then, I’ll go with ‘D’ for the answer.

    1. I said on previous blog that It took me a few to figure it out but the question I think is asking what the literal meaning is of the word.

      D for me also

  5. 6z GFS for Tuesday
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=090&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=090&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=090&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

    1. Yup, here is what I posted:

      WxWatcher mentioned NWS discussion re: Tuesday.
      Latest models indicate action may stay West of Boston Area.

      Here is the latest Significant tornado ingredients

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f087.gif

      And EHI from the CMC

      http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_qc_00/HI_PN_090_0000.gif

      Li

      http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_qc_00/LI_PN_UU_VV_090_0000.gif

      Cape

      http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_qc_00/BE_BE_PN_090_0000.gif

  7. I think the answer to the quiz is D.

    What do folks think as regards to a window of opportunity for outdoor activities on Sunday? We are planning to sail from Quincy to Winthrop later today, spend the night, and the sail back on Sunday. I was hoping for some clearing Sunday afternoon…

    1. Clear sailing? I doubt it. A break in the weather to allow the sailing? Perhaps.
      Tk will answer. I’m just going based on what Eric said last night. It would be
      sometime after 2PM or so.

    3. Brings back memories of sailing 110s from Hull to Southie or to Winthrop or Marblehead, sometimes in fog or at night — with no electronics in the 60s. Hope Sunday storms clear for you.

      1. Great memories MassBay. Mac is jealous. I admit to being a bit nervous on boats.

        Mac and family were sailing to Anzio one summer. They were completely fogged in. They got as close as they dared to and dropped anchor. When they woke up in the morning, they found themselves literally in the middle of the 7th fleet.

        1. My brother was an Ensign in the Mediterranean Fleet in the mid 60s. Might have been looking at Mac!

  8. Latest SREF beginning to look SCARY for Tuesday, especially West of here.
    Waiting for more frames then I am heading out for some errands.

    1. More bulk shear

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_ESHR_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f084.gif

      significant tornado parameter

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f084.gif

      LI

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SFCLI_MEDIAN_MXMN__f081.gif

      CAPE

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SFCCAPE_MEDIAN_MXMN__f084.gif

      Adding it all up, the main threat is still CT River Valley, Hudson Valley of NY and even a bit Farther West as well.

      Will continue to monitor and it could get dicey.

      1. Ugh. Mac is supposed to have minor surgical procedure at brigham tues. I hope tornado threat goes away

        1. Remember, it’s 3 days away still AND as it is, the main threat, if any, is well to the West of our area and especially West of Boston.

          Best of luck with that on Tuesday.

  10. 12Z NAM data for Tuesday. Although the biggest threat is to the West earlier
    in the afternoon, it spreads East later in the PM towards evening. So, it needs to
    be watched.

    CAPE 2PM

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/nam_amer_qc_12/BE_BE_PN_078_0000.gif

    EHI 2PM

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/nam_amer_qc_12/HI_PN_078_0000.gif

    CAPE 8PM

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/nam_amer_qc_12/BE_BE_PN_084_0000.gif

    EHI 8PM

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/nam_amer_qc_12/HI_PN_084_0000.gif

    Those are some pretty hefty instability parameters that need to be monitored just in case.

  13. D for trivia quiz but I like Old Salty’s definition from the previous post much better.

    Perhaps “standing still” is from the Latin?

      1. For once my several years of Latin came in handy. Sol is sun and sisto (close but may not be exact) is stand.

  14. Thanks for all the links Old Salty.
    The thunderstorm threat Tuesday is the first one this year that has some interest for me.

  15. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Last Monday I tweeted about the long range weather pattern favoring some severe storms. It looks like Tuesday may be very active. Stay Tuned

    1. Especially to the west. The problem is the sheared atmosphere.
      Some severe storms have the “possibility” of rotating and well we know
      what that could mean.

      Needs to be watched for sure. Not certain the threat will translate to Eastern
      sections, but the NAM says yes. We shall see.

        1. Perhaps. Timing gets better with each run.
          We’ll just keep watching. If everything holds true to form,
          the only threat will be out to the West. Just never know for certain. ALL storms have gone poof moving Eastward so far this year. We’ll have to watch the wind direction.
          More South than West then Eastern sections are probably safe.

  16. Just checked the latest SREF. OH BOY!

    Here is the Significant Tornado ingredients

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f078.gif

    Significant tornado parameter.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f078.gif

    Helicity

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f006.gif

    Bulk Shear

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_0-6KMSHR_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f078.gif

    These are all Significant Severe weather parameters. Does it mean anything WILL happen. NO! But it is a Strong signal for all interests to be on guard for sure.

    I can say this. I have NEVER EVER seen the significant tornado parameter at
    a 2 for our area. NEVER.

    Don’t mean to alarm anyone. It is nearly 3 days off and Much can change.

    Something to watch and monitor is all at this point.

  17. Winds for Tuesday “look” to be straight SW as in from 225 Degrees, perhaps
    a “tad” more West than that?
    “Could” be enough Westerly component to keep severe weather intact towards
    Eastern Sections. Again we won’t know for certain until we get closer.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015062018&time=INSTANT&var=GRDM&hour=072

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015062018&time=INSTANT&var=GRDM&hour=075

  18. Tuesday to me the first real watcher for strong to possibly severe storms. Hopefully this front won’t come through during peak heating or we have a lot of cloud cover.

  19. 18z NAM for Tuesday
    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=LI&hh=072&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=072&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

    1. GFS not as bullish and keeps most of the action well to the West.
      Need to monitor more before worrying. I could see the scenario where there
      is severe weather from CT. River, Westward and NOT to the East.

  21. I would expect parts of interior SNE tomorrow will be placed under at least a marginal risk for Tuesday by the SPC.
    I am not worried just watching to see what happens. Certainly there are ingredients in place for POSSIBLY some potent activity on Tuesday. Big question does everything come together?

    1. Yup, not unlike seeing the NAM map in the Winter calling for 36-48 inches of
      snow 3 days ahead only to see it not verifying. Unfortunately, we just have to wait and see how it all comes together, if it even does.

    1. Nice OS. I can’t believe goodells ego won’t get in the way but he has to know this won’t stand if Brady takes it to court

  23. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz

    Summer solstice occurs at 12:38 PM tomorrow. Solstice literally means …
    A. Latest sunset
    B. Sun directly overhead
    C. Sun strengthening
    D. Sun standing still

    The answer is D.

    2. That’s because when a body reverses direction, it briefly stands still. And the sad thing with the solstice is that we are now going in the direction of shorter days and loser sun angles… I still have not recovered from winter.

  24. 18z GFS for Tuesday
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=LI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

  29. On a side note: many are saying record mini co practices in 4 weeks, some are saying 30k for some will be here, crazy!! But love it 🙂

  30. Early morning all. I won’t post instability charts until tomorrow, but they keep changing.
    Some for the better and some for the worse. Tuesday still needs to be watched very carefully for potential severe weather.

    I’ll leave just one chart, the 0Z NAM EHI (Energy Helicity Index) which takes into
    account Helicity and Cape. The higher the number the greater chance of Severe weather and tornadoes.

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/nam_amer_qc_00/HI_PN_066_0000.gif

    Keep in Mind that the NAM has been the most robust. Let’s see if all models come into
    agreement.

  31. One limiting factor mentioned by the NWS is:

    TOO MUCH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE…MAY BRING A MODIFIED
    MARINE LAYER INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS.

    Previous charts indicated more of a SW wind, but latest have more of a Southerly
    component, which would spare Eastern Sections. Just still too early to know.

    Just keep monitoring for now.

    From NWS

    TRYING TO FORECAST A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT 3 DAYS IN THE FUTURE IS QUITE CHALLENGING. ITS EVEN MORE DIFFICULT THAN A WINTER STORM…SINCE MANY MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES GO INTO THE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.

    Drives home the point that we should just be monitoring at this point. Nothing is
    set in stone. We shall see.

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