Paying The “Bill” / Sunday Update

120 Comments

2:49AM

COMMENTARY…
Drought-breaking rain? Not really. The US Drought Monitor, released every Thursday, places the entirety of southern New England in either “abnormally dry” or “moderate drought”, and this is a result of a precipitation deficit of 4 to as many as 10 inches over a period of many months. A 1 to 3 inch rain event in one day does not erase a drought. It takes several significant rain events over a period of time, and preferably ones that don’t come down so quickly that the majority of the water runs off into the storm drains. As the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill come across and soak the region for a good part of Sunday, we’re not really paying a water bill, so to speak, but we’re paying with likely having to give up part of Father’s Day to Mother Nature, who had other plans than the ones you likely had. Will any of the day be salvaged for outside activity? Read on…

DAYS 1-5…
Low pressure tracks right across southeastern New England through mid afternoon today with widespread showers including some areas of very heavy rain and possible thunder. Watch for areas of street flooding during and shortly after the heaviest rain. Do not be surprised if rain suddenly ends, clouds break, and we even see some sunshine before the afternoon is over, as the remains of Bill move away from west to east. The air will be quite humid, with a tropical feel. A cold front pushing through the region in the evening may set off an additional shower or thunderstorm. A small bubble of high pressure will bring fair weather Monday before low pressure passes north of southern New England Tuesday, first dragging a warm front through in the morning then a cold front in the afternoon. The warn front may produce brief light rain, and the cold front may set off a band of showers and thunderstorms. The timing of that front will be critical in determining the extent and intensity of any showers and thunderstorms. There will be some potential for strong storms so this will be monitored. High pressure brings another nice day Wednesday. This high will push off to the east and northeast of New England during Thursday as low pressure approaches from the southwest, delivering more cloudiness.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy through mid afternoon with numerous showers, some heavy, and possible thunder. Breaking clouds and possible sun later afternoon west to east. Humid. Highs 65-70 South Coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm before midnight. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
MONDAY: Sun & cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain AM. Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms PM. Lows 60-65. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 75-80.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)…
Look for wet and cool weather episodes June 26 and sometime in the June 28-29 time frame. For this 5-day period, rainfall will average near to above normal with temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)…
Change the month / change the pattern? Perhaps. There are signs that the jet stream may try to life a little or at least become more zonal with weaker disturbances, mostly dry weather, and overall warmer temperatures during this period.

120 thoughts on “Paying The “Bill” / Sunday Update”

  3. 6z NAM for 18z on Tuesday. Meteocentre does not show 21z. Instead goes to 0z.
    CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy)
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

  4. Meteocentre site did not have 6z GFS run up yet but here is the 0z run for Tuesday at 18z.
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=00&stn=EHI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=00&stn=CAPE&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=00&stn=LI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

  5. Thanks TK. Have had 1.46 so far. There was some thunder in the distance at some point in the night

  6. 6z GFS for Tuesday for 18z. It skips over 21z and goes to 0z.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

  10. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How may seconds of daylight will we lose between today and tomorrow?

    A. 60
    B. 36
    C. 13
    D. 2

    Answer later today. (I got it right!)

  11. Still not liking what I see for Tuesday. There is still time for things to change, but
    it appears to be getting worse and not better. We shall see.

    Latest SREF data just about ready. Will post shortly.

      2. Seriously,

        When is the last time you saw a bullseye like that over
        New England? Not sure I ever have.

        Also, when did you ever see tornado parameter of 2?
        Not sure I have. This is what it means:

        Basically, if STP is non-zero, that should get your attention in Connecticut. A value of 0.3 is considered moderate, 0.5 is high and anything over 1 is highly unusual to see in this part of the country.

        Most of Connecticut’s tornadoes have been relatively weak, or EF-0 to EF-1 on the strength scale. Like the STP equation says, an STP value over 1 supports significant tornadoes. STP values over 1 in Connecticut are rare, but in the case of such a high value, the probability of a significant or powerful tornadoes increases.

        Here is a link for details from a Connecticut Meteorologist. Perhaps JJ knows of him:

        http://www.quincyvagell.com/2013/07/03/stp/

    1. Thank you. Here is an excerpt:

      First off, it appears that the stage may be primed for an outbreak of severe weather on Tuesday. A strong cold front will be approaching the area with upper level support and strong wind fields thanks to an intensifying storm transiting over the St. Lawrence River Valley. A sizeable amount of potential wind shear is worrisome so be ready to keep an eye on the sky!

      Hmmm
      What is his definition of worrisome? I have an idea.

  13. Thanks, TK!

    And Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there.

    And Happy Summer (starts early this aft.). Feels a bit like summer w/the humidity but not warm enough unless the sun comes out early enough.

  14. From NWS:

    TUESDAY COULD BE A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. NOT FULLY CERTAIN AS THERE ARE BOTH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CONSIDERATIONS. FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTS AND FRONTAL TIMING.

    Reading the complete discussion, there are still factors that could limit any severe
    weather or prevent it altogether.     Continue to watch.

  15. Old Salty Quincey Vagell used to work at WTNH our ABC Affiliate here in CT as a web producer for WXedge.com He writes some very good articles.
    The last big tornado we had here in CT was the Hamden Tornado July 10, 1989 which was an F 4.

  16. My hope is Tuesday there will be a lot of cloud cover. Sunshine will be self destructing sunshine. Hopefully there will be a cap in the atmosphere or the wind direction will be off the water where the thunderstorms won’t have that much of a punch.
    I will say this for Tuesday it has my attention. I am not worried but there are ingredients in play here that favor the development of Potent Thunderstorm Activity.

    1. There are factors in play that “could” limit severe weather in Eastern sections.
      We just don’t know yet. The concern is should any potent storms develop, with the sheared environment, we could see some storms rotate and then, well you know what that means. Something to be watched carefully.

      Remember the EF2 Revere tornado. That occurred in the morning with
      ZERO sunshine. So any and all convection will have to be monitored for
      rotation.

      Could be a very interesting day or it could be a dull day with passing showers
      and garden variety thunder showers. Just cannot say at this point.
      May not be able to say until Tuesday AM.

  18. Very concerned for Tuesday, and not just for severe storms with hail and straight line winds, but for potential rotating supercells. Now you all know I am not an alarmist but trust me, we have something to watch here. Could it turn out to be a dud? Absolutely. But you don’t ignore it when the parameters are potentially as significant as it seems they may be, for this area. Yes, we all know this is not Texas and that they will probably laugh at us, even if there are a few tornadoes that day.

    As always, will monitor. It’s going to come down to timing/location.

    1. Thanks TK. Believe me you have my attention when you are concerned.

      Have you ever seen an STP of 2 for our area? I think that is unprecedented.
      That got my immediate attention.

      What is your feeling about a Southerly component to the wind introducing
      a limiting marine layer? Models I have seen are somewhat conflicting as
      to the wind direction. Some are true SW while others are more SSW.

      The more Westerly the component, the more dangerous the situtation.

      1. I can’t recall the last time I saw it, and not many times in the past.

        So far I’m leaning more toward the westerly wind which is why my concern is elevated. South wind will have an impact if that should be the case.

        1. Ironically, IF we had a South Wind with NO possibility of a marine influence (Of course not the case.), then
          it would actually contribute More to the tornado threat.

          In the Mid-West, they often have a SouthEast surface
          wind when tornadoes occur, thus enhancing the shear
          with height.

          In addition to not having the proper conditions, that
          is one of the reasons we don’t get many tornadoes.
          Has to be “Just right” for us to get a tornado. Not impossible, but very difficult.

  22. 12z NAM for 18z on Tuesday
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=EHI&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=054
    CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy)
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

    1. It’s funny, initially I thought 6/1/11. As I look more it reminds me a bit more of 7/10/89.

  24. I was worried before and with your concern, TK, I’m really concerned. I don’t think we can reschedule macs procedure and I’m not big on being on road, in boston or frankly not home

    1. What time is the procedure and what time would you get out of there?
      Most activity, should it occur, would be something like 2-6PM or thereabout.

      1. We don’t know time yet OS. Partners has a new computer system and the drop down names of doctors haven’t been put in so they cannot schedule time yet….stop laughing :). We are supposed to find out tomorrow maybe sort of. I can still hear you laughing 😆

        But knowing the time period is huge. Thanks so much

        1. Laughing???? Not a laughing matter. I do hope it is
          in the morning for you so you can get home and hunker
          down and monitor WHW and the radars.

          I will be away from my office and computer on Tuesday from Noon to 2PM. Hopefully I won’t miss anything.

  25. Holy Toledo ….. Where did all this rain come from ??

    Quite a drenching taking down the camper ….. Will always remember this GpFather’s Day camping take down adventure for sure. 🙂

    Happy Father’s Day to all out there !!

    2. It’s funny….well, not your breaking down in the rain, but I was thinking the other day that many of my fondest memories seem to center around storms…especially near the ocean. Adventures. Happy Fathers Day, Tom

      2. Thanks OS and Vicki.

        It was still fun. When we were finishing up, came the heaviest rain. It was laughable, by the time I had gotten into the truck, it looked like we had gotten out of a pool. 🙂

    1. Hmmm
      I have no clue what it means, but interesting to note the wavy pattern
      of both the Cape and the LI. Perhaps it was a computer glitch or perhaps
      it really means something???

  28. Usually meteocentre posts the 12z run of GFS around 2pm.
    SPC will not update the risk area for Tuesday today. Tomorrow there will be two updates and on Tuesday there will be three updates.

  30. EHI explained

    Energy helicity index (or ehi) in English:

    An index that incorporates vertical shear and instability, designed for the purpose of forecasting supercell thunderstorms. It is related directly to storm-relative helicity in the lowest 2 km (SRH, in m2/s2) and CAPE (in j/kg) as follows: EHI = (CAPE x SRH)/160,000. Thus, higher values indicate unstable conditions and/or strong vertical shear. Since both parameters are important for severe weather development, higher values generally indicate a greater potential for severe weather. Values of 1 or more are said to indicate a heightened threat of tornadoes; values of 5 or more are rarely observed, and are said to indicate potential for violent tornadoes. However, there are no magic numbers or critical threshold values to confirm or predict the occurrence of tornadoes of a particular intensity.

    Here is another link with additional information:

    http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/314/

    I have found the NAM to be aggressive with this index and GFS to always be
    the least robust. For Tuesday, they are BOTH robust, so that should tell us something.

  31. This something we been watching since yesterday and the severe parameters are still present for strong to possibly severe storms. You hope these parameters come down for Tuesday. Certainly nothing set in stone and I think everyone will be happy if all we see are non severe storms.

  32. I have another for your consideration:

    VGP = Vorticity Generation Parameter. The VGP is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.

    Here is the 12Z run of the ARW WRF VGP chart. It shows the index to be .5 across
    our area, which is significantly above .2!

    http://www.wrf-model.org/plots/showforecast_15.php

  33. That is a great link you posted Old Salty. If everything lines up and comes together watch out. Thankfully were still two days away and a lot can change.

    1. The way I see it, there are 3 possible limiting factors in no particular order:

      1. Possible marine layer with a more Southerly component to the wind, should
      that set up.
      2. Debris clouds from passage of warm front earlier in the day and any possible associated convection.
      3. Cap to the atmosphere.

      But these are only possibilities. It is looking more and more threatening
      for Tuesday. We need to keep watching.

  34. OS, are there meteorological definitions associated with different ranges Lift Indexes. For example 0 to 6 or 0 to -6 or -6 and lower. As an analogy … kind of like definitions for Cat 1, Cat 2, etc.?

    1. I don’t think so. Reason being it is so associated with CAPE.
      With high Cape could have severe storm with LI = -3 while with
      very low Cape and LI of -8 or -9 might not get a storm at all.

      Let me check.

      Turns out there is. Not sure it what you expected, but here it is:

      LI 6 or Greater: Very Stable Conditions
      LI Between 1 and 6 : Stable Conditions, Thunderstorms Not Likely
      LI Between 0 and -2 : Slightly Unstable, Thunderstorms Possible, With Lifting Mechanism (i.e., cold front, daytime heating, …)
      LI Between -2 and -6 : Unstable, Thunderstorms Likely, Some Severe With Lifting Mechanism
      LI Less Than -6: Very Unstable, Severe Thunderstorms Likely With Lifting Mechanism

      Note: Extremely Negative LI will NOT produce Thunderstorms without a lifting mechanism. ie Front, trough, other convergence, no Cap etc etc etc.

    1. Honestly, the GFS almost NEVER has high EHI values, even when others do.
      We Must take notice of this.

  36. A colleague of mine notes that this set-up also may resemble 7/3/1997, although no tornadoes occurred with that. There was, however, some damaging wind and incredible amounts of lightning.

  37. That run of GFS has lift index in the -8 and -10 range in my area with high EHI values.
    The day of the Springfield Tornado lift index was in that -8 -10 range with helicity in the 150 – 300 range.

    1. Vicki 21z is 5pm. Who are you rooting for to win U.S. Open. I am rooting for Jason Day

  40. Exciting time (at least from my perspective) to be a forecaster…

    -Bill’s remains coming through today were interesting to watch. At least we did not end up with too many issues regarding flooding. This was NOT a very beneficial rain as far as the drought goes, however. Too much too quickly. Most of it ran off.

    -The severe weather set-up for Tuesday. None of us are rooting for damage but we may have quite a bit of action to watch unfold.

    -Figuring out the timing of systems through a critical time as we head toward July 4 week, which is major outdoor time and vacation time for many.

    Regarding the last point, I can already see things breaking down like this: A nice middle of this coming week, a wet and cool Friday but progressive enough system that we salvage Saturday but lose at least the second half of next Sunday to another system, which lingers into Monday and maybe even part of Tuesday (end of June). We get to July and there will be a trough in the Midwest and Great Lakes but at the same time there are signs of a ridge off the East Coast. The placement of these will be the key to the July 1-5 forecast.

  41. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How may seconds of daylight will we lose between today and tomorrow?

    A. 60
    B. 36
    C. 13
    D. 2

    The answer is D.

      1. And then …. add about 4 seconds per day loss …. 2 sec tomorrow, another 6 Tuesday, 10 more Wednesday …… 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 all the way until its about 2 min, 50 sec per day at the equinox.

        Thank goodness it wont be noticeable for about a month. 🙂

  42. Quick ride found …… A low fog deck right near the ocean’s edge. Literally, at the sea wall and into Rte 139. Come out of Brant Rock Village and get right back into clear visibility.

    I’m guessing its the 70F dewpoint air over the colder ocean.

      1. Forgive me Coastal, I dont know Haggars …..

        The village itself was in the clear, but as you went right onto the beach or the seawall, the low lying fog was sitting there.

        This was around 4:45pm.

  43. Tweet From Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    A severe weather outbreak in New England is possible on Tuesday. Plentiful instability and wind shear could make for some nasty storms

  44. 18z NAM for Tuesday
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=048&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=048&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

  45. Vicki and JJ, I know you both like golf …..

    This course …… Is it always like this, or is it due to western drought ?

    My first thought when I saw it Thursday night was it looked like the British Open, where I know it rains a ton. But, it just has that look of the British Open.

    1. Mac said it is the type of grass they are growing. Fescue and polena. Not sure of spelling.

        1. We are watching behind. I’m with JJ and hoping for Jason Day. I cannot imagine how difficult it is to play with vertigo

  46. http://ri.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0LEVyfINYdVIs8AWSbBGOd_;_ylu=X3oDMTEyaGU2Z3I2BGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjAxNzZfMQRzZWMDc3I-/RV=2/RE=1434953289/RO=10/RU=http%3a%2f%2fen.wikipedia.org%2fwiki%2f2011_New_England_tornado_outbreak/RK=0/RS=qe3716q.aVBsjCFK4ioOhw6XWZ8-

    Go down to meteorological synopsis, read that first paragraph.

    Low thru Ontario/Quebec, close by strong jet stream, dynamics, deepening Great Lakes trof ….. seems to be some similar ingredients/setup to this Tuesday.

  50. Thanks TK 🙂 Sorry I haven’t been posting here much! Since I started my new job I have been totally out of it in terms of organizing my time, and keeping my eyes open 😛 Time to get back on track!

    I enjoyed the heavy rain here in Stoneham. I like when it goes through its burst. My cat was freaked out, but then she accepted it.

    And here it goes again as we speak…

    1. Hi Emily. Hope you are enjoying your job. It is always exciting to see you here. Weather is very quiet here. I thought I saw moonshine earlier but it was behind trees so maybe not

  51. Can’t believe Dustin Johnson missed that short putt that would have forced a playoff instead Jordan Spieth wins first two majors of the year.

  52. 0z NAM for Tuesday
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=EHI&hh2=042&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=045
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=00&stn=LI&hh=045&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=045&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=00&stn=CAPE&hh=045&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=045&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

  55. 6z NAM for Tuesday
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=EHI&hh2=042&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=039
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

    1. Those parameters are NOT as Robust as previous runs.
      Could be because it is the 6Z run. Could be the danger has lessened.
      We’ll continue to watch. About to check latest SREF

  56. Latest SREF

    Significant tornado parameter:
    18Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f039.gif

    21Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f042.gif

    Significan tornado ingredients

    18Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f039.gif

    21Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f042.gif

    Notice the 60 on the 18Z for Western Sections. 60 is what this map shows when
    there is a Mid-West outbreak. It diminishes to 30 for 21Z more East. Will keep watching. Going to look at shear and helicity next. Also note the bullseye of 2
    on the tornado parameter map. This is BAD.

  58. 06Z GFS
    CAPE

    18Z

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015062206&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=036

    21Z

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015062206&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=039

    LIFTED INDEX
    18Z

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015062206&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=036

    21Z

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015062206&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=039

  59. 06Z CMC-RDPS / Explorer

    CAPE
    18Z

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_06/BE_BE_PN_036_0000.gif

    Lifted Index
    18Z

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_06/LI_PN_UU_VV_036_0000.gif

    Energy Helicity Index
    18Z

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_06/HI_PN_036_0000.gif

    Note this has the greatest risk around 2PM, while the other models have it
    at around 5PM. Also, although the EHI is still high, Cape and LI are down considerably. Not sure what to make of this. Let’s see what the 12Z runs show.
    Can’t trust 6Z runs.

  60. From NWS this morning:
    Headline:

    TUESDAY…
    *** POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS N CT AND INTERIOR MA ***

    However, some limiting factors to consider:

    BEST 0-1 KM SHEAR AND HELICITY MOVE THROUGH
    DURING THE MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT AND APPEAR TO RACE AHEAD OF MAX INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER…GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WE CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TORNADO GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.

    MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT BUT BEST LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH REMNANT EML APPEAR TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH WHICH COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. OTHER ISSUE IS CLOUD DEBRIS AND SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WHICH COULD AFFECT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

    So, in conclusion, are we beginning to see some hope that tomorrow will NOT
    have a severe weather outbreak? Perhaps just some strong storms and no tornadoes?
    Let us hope so. Will continue to monitor.

    1. There has to be a reason that the SPC only has Eastern sections in
      the Marginal Zone. Let’s hold onto to that. 😀

      1. OS I can’t tell what the parameter map means when you say bullseye. Is smallest area in center bulls eye. I cannot see a legend so perhaps solid line as opposed to dotted means 2?

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