Monday Forecast Update

157 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5…
TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog break during the morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers afternoon. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. A more organized line of storms may form and move across parts of the region late. Strong to severe storms possible. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 75-85, coolest Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or showers. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)…
Fair but cool Saturday June 27. Clouds return Sunday June 28 with rain possible by the end of the day. Unsettled and cool transitioning to warmer and drier weather between June 29 and July 1.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)…
Temperatures near to above normal as high pressure builds off the East Coast while a trough sits over the Great Lakes. Rainfall variable but near to below normal overall. Can’t rule out some locally heavy thunderstorms on a few days.

157 thoughts on “Monday Forecast Update”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    I posted many links on the previous blog if anyone is interested.
    Here is one re-post as a summary:

    From NWS this morning:
    Headline:

    TUESDAY…
    *** POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS N CT AND INTERIOR MA ***

    However, some limiting factors to consider:

    BEST 0-1 KM SHEAR AND HELICITY MOVE THROUGH
    DURING THE MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT AND APPEAR TO RACE AHEAD OF MAX INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER…GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WE CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TORNADO GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.

    MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT BUT BEST LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH REMNANT EML APPEAR TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH WHICH COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. OTHER ISSUE IS CLOUD DEBRIS AND SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WHICH COULD AFFECT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

    So, in conclusion, are we beginning to see some hope that tomorrow will NOT
    have a severe weather outbreak? Perhaps just some strong storms and no tornadoes?
    Let us hope so. Will continue to monitor.

    There has to be a reason that the SPC only has Eastern sections in
    the Marginal Zone. Let’s hold onto to that. 😀

  3. From Channel 5 re: tomorrow

    Boston Weather Updates
    1 hr ·
    An early HEADS UP for tomorrow afternoon. Strong to severe t-storms are possible. Timeline is around 2-8pm… need to be on guard for storms that could produce damaging winds and hail… some storms could be rotating so can’t completely rule out an isolated tornado.

  4. I keep seeing so much conflicting data regarding tomorrow, I don’t know what to think.
    I am currently waiting for the 9Z SREF data. 3Z data is still Robust for severe weather.
    But looking at 06Z runs of models, I suspect the 9Z run “may” back off some.
    Waiting to see.

    One thing to note: From the NWS discussion out of Albany, they expect a mesoscale
    convective complex with the warm front early tomorrow AM. This “could” leave
    cloud debris limiting convection later in the day when the pre-frontal trough and then
    front move through. Also the discussion from Upton NY indicated Subsidence aloft
    which could also limit convection.

    I think we’ll actually have to wait until tomorrow morning until we see EXACTLY
    how everything is setting up.

    Still needs to be monitored for sure.

    Thoughts from all of our resident prognosticators, pro and amateur?
    Gut thoughts/feelings? Anything at all?

    1. Hadi I am in Roxbury with TOTAL SUNSHINE as well. You can’t be more
      than a mile or 2 from where I am. Amazing, isn’t it?

  6. 9Z SREF is in.

    Significant Tornado Ingredients
    18Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015062209/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f033.gif

    21Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015062209/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036.gif

    Significant Tornado Parameter
    18Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015062209/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f033.gif

    21Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015062209/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f036.gif

    This is an ever so slight back off. previous bullseye had a 60. This bullseye has
    a 45. Still “about” the same for Boston Area, however.

    Will continue to monitor.

  7. The day of the Springfield Tornado there was some heavy showers and embedded thunder that came through with the warm front in the morning hours. Then we were warm sectored and the sun came out and that really destablized the atmosphere. I am wondering if something close to that happens tomorrow. If it does look out.

  8. Clouds are our friend tomorrow.
    Thanks for all the links Old Salty. I saw on one of the tornado parameters there is still a 2 for my part of CT.
    Will see when the SPC updates the outlook for day 2 tomorrow around 1:30pm if the slight risk area is expanded or kept the same. Last year when the Revere tornado happened the percentages on the SREF for tornado were much lower.

    1. JJ, I think for the significant ingredients it was 15, but for the parameter
      it was under 1 if IRC.

  10. Just looked at the map and noticed NWS out of Taunton has not issued a hazardous weather outlook for tomorrow where NWS out of Albany and Upton have issued hazardous weather outlooks highlighting the possiblity of severe storms with the main threats of damaging winds and hail.

  11. Pr [MLCAPE > 1000 J/kg] X Pr [MLLCL 100 m^2/s^2] X Pr [0-6 KM Shear > 40 kts] X Pr [C03I > 0.01”]

    The above is the formula for calculating the Significant Tornado Ingredients
    which is a probability. When the map show 15 then it is a probability of .15 that
    tornadoes will occur within the area highlighted.

    What I cannot find is what is the parameter: Co3I

    Anyone Know? TK, JMA? Anyone? Many thanks

  12. Waiting to see those 12z runs and of course each run of the SREF. The SREF did a decent job last year pinpointing areas where a tornado was possible. It nailed the Revere Worcester and Wolcott CT tornadoes last year.

  13. Even though some of the severe parameters have come down some we are not out of the woods for tomorrow and need to continue to watch this situation evolve.

  14. 12Z NAM for tomorrow:

    21Z CAPE

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015062212&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=033

    21Z 10M winds

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015062212&time=INSTANT&var=GRDM&hour=033

    However, look at this simulated reflectivity at 14Z or about 10AM.
    This I presume is the mesoscale system. That’s loaded

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015062212&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=026

    Then here’s the reflectivity at 21Z or about 5PM.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015062212&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=033

    IF I were to interpret this, I would say that the morning mesoscale activity
    is going to knock the Crap out of any possible convection later in the afternoon.
    I am not a Met and I could be missing something, but it sure looks that way to me.

    Thoughts?

  18. Thunderstorms for tomorrow smells a lot like a classic shrinkage inside 495. Western MA to Worcester different story.

    1. Could be. But one never knows for sure.
      TK thought that the surface winds might have “just” enough
      Westerly component to “possibly” keep them together.
      No guarantees on that for sure.

      I think somewhere in Central/Western MA & CT or Eastern NY or all 3,
      there will be something severe. IF not a tornado, then destructive straight
      line winds and hail OR all of that. We shall see.

  20. NORTHEAST STATES…

    MCS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NEW
    ENGLAND GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
    TO EXTEND FROM SRN NH AND VT NWWD INTO SRN QUEBEC. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
    EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF AND UPSTREAM OF THE MCS AS RICHER
    LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NEWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE
    OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SOME BREAKS IN RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS
    ARE EXPECTED WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
    STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
    FRONT FROM NEWD ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC.
    IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
    TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
    40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
    SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME WLY
    UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTH OF WARM FRONT SUGGESTING PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
    LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER…AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
    NEW ENGLAND WHERE A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE CONDITIONAL
    UPON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTIVELY
    ENHANCED WARM FRONT

  21. OK, NOW they have done it! The SPC has most of Massachusetts, Northern CT and RI
    and a good chunk of NH and VT in the ENHANCED zone for Severe Weather. Boston
    is “Just” outside the enhanced zone but STILL in the Slight Zone. Here is the map:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1434994893372

    Details:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

    Enhanced wording for New England:

    WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTH OF WARM FRONT SUGGESTING PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER…AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
    NEW ENGLAND WHERE A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WARM FRONT.

    I am NOT a betting man, but if I were, I’d place money on our area being within
    a Tornado Watch Box tomorrow. Any takers on that?

    2. I won’t place money on it but it seems lately when they start getting nervous a few days before a potential storm-threat; it usually happens somewhere. So, I believe there will be a tornado or at least a severe thunderstorm watch. Even if the sun doesn’t come out. Warm front moving in just before cold fronts, I think, tend to bring severe weather. I’m hoping I’m wrong. Hoping that we don’t get any severe weather.

  23. I don’t know about a watch but I would not be surprised somewhere in New England tomorrow we have a tornado warning or two.

    2. Ok, this time tomorrow let’s check in. You WILL be staring at a tornado
      watch box that includes a decent chunk of New England.

      And for sure there will be more than 1 tornado warned storm, whether or not there is actually one on the ground.

    1. Thank you Vicki. We do use bottled water, but it is Poland Spring.

      Pretty good, eh? These big conglomerates have us PAYING FOR WATER!!!!

      What’s next? The air we breath??????

      1. Laughable….sort of. And macs procedure was postponed for two weeks. The new system is only half set up. This time I’m happy about the comouter system not working.

        1. I suppose it is good in a way, as long as it is safe for
          Mac to wait the 2 weeks. You want to be HOME
          tomorrow for sure.

          1. Thanks rainshine. I made up my mind to go but was relieved when they said they couldn’t schedule it

      2. Aaah, but we do it anyway. I am guilty as charged – when I go out or want a cold drink of water I use Poland Spring. But for cooking I use tap water. Remember the old days? As a child my family would go on long summer drives and we never had water with us (unless when I was a baby my mother probably had a water/milk bottle available). Now I carry my water w/me most places – half the time I don’t drink it! We (including me) have become – how do you spell it? Wusses! 🙂

  25. I would think for percentage the SPC gives for tornado would be 5% in the enhanced risk area 2% in slight risk area.
    Will see what the latest SREF says.

    1. I think you are a tad low.
      I believe it will be 10% in the enhanced area and 5% in the slight area
      surrounding the enhanced area and a zone of 2% within the slight, but
      farther away from the Enhanced. And the watch will encompass both
      the 5% and the 10% area, but not the 2% or if so, only a very small portion.

      IF you are correct, then the watch will encompass the enhanced area only.

      It will be most interesting to see how they deal with it.

      ONE thing I must say:

      1. This is the first Time any part of New England has been in the enhanced zone since the SPC changed the format.
      2. The SPC tends to be quite conservative in throwing out these risk areas. Therefore the enhanced area has me VERY VERY CONCERNED!!!

      TK we need you to jump in here. What are your current thoughts?

  26. The last time we had a 10 % chance of tornado was I believe in July 2008. There was EF 1 tornado that formed just as it exited Rhode Island and head into southeastern MA.

    1. I think we see it tomorrow. I could be full of Crap, but we shall see.
      This is the Most concerned I have EVER been regarding possible tornadoes.
      The absolute MOST! Doesn’t mean it will happen, but I am REALLY concerned.

  27. The ingredients are there for severe storms tomorrow. Now does it all come together and if it does look out.
    I apologize if this was posted but wanted to post the 12z runs of the American Models EHI Values
    NAM EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=EHI&hh2=036&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=033
    GFS EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=EHI&hh2=033&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=030

    1. They were not posted. At least I don’t think so.

      These represent a considerable back off. This is a good thing.

      However, I remain confused and conflicted. I read the SPC wording
      and I crap my pants. I read the NWS discussion and I am not so worried.
      I see these maps and again, not as worried.

      I would trust the SPC at this point. So we shall see.

  28. When don’t usually get risk areas here in New England that go to the next level and we have an enhanced risk for severe weather across parts of New England which the SPC gives a 30% chance of severe weather the slight risk 15% chance of severe weather.

    1. Agree. AND that is why I am REALLY concerned. Hopefully, it will be for
      Naught, but concerned I am.

  29. 15Z SREF data Starting to come out. It will still take awhile, but it’s FINALLY on the way, about 45 minutes late. I wonder if the computer barfed trying to digest all of this
    tricky and detailed information????

  30. That model is one I am paying close attention to based on its performance last year. Will see how it does with our first real severe weather threat of 2015.

    1. Ditto myself.

      Check out the latest from Taunton NWS. I think they are now concerned as well.

  34. Latest Graphic from NWS re: Tomorrow

    https://scontent-lga1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/t31.0-8/11426804_825160597578313_8237750900498126989_o.png

    Wording

    US National Weather Service Boston MA
    Page Liked · 2 hrs ·

    Here’s the latest on the potential for severe weather on Tuesday.

    We are looking at two possible scenarios which are outlined below. Right now, we are leaning more toward the second one, which means there is a good chance of thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado across much of southern New England.

    We’ll post more information later this afternoon once we refine the forecast. For now, be aware of the severe weather potential tomorrow.

    You, your family, and friends should have a severe weather safety plan. Know a safe place to go whether at home, work, or out and about, and make sure you have a way to keep in touch!

  35. Weather Channel just put a torcon of 3 for NY and south; and for NH and VT; I don’t know about ME. But they didn’t mention MA. How come?

    1. Tuesday, June 23, 2015

      Severe thunderstorms in west ME, NH, VT, NY, PA, CT, RI, MA, NJ, DE, MD, north and west VA, south OH, south IN, southeast IL, central and east KY. TOR:CON – 3 VT, NH, NY, east PA; 2 to 3 rest of area.

      Torcon of 2-3 for MA.

      TOR:CON Value Descriptions
      8+ Very high probability of a tornado
      6 – High probability of a tornado
      4 – Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
      2 – Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
      0 – Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

      IMHO, that rating is a tad low.
      I think VT and NH should be a 4 and the rest of the area 3-4.

      I’ll bet that changes.

  36. 15Z SREF regarding severe threat tomorrow:

    Significant Tornado Ingredients
    18Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f027.gif

    21Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f030.gif

    Significant Tornado Parameter
    18Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f030.gif

    21Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f030.gif

    This is NOT good. The 60 in the bullseye is back!

  37. 88F here in Wrentham. A bit hotter than expected. Interested in TK’s thoughts on the severe weather, looks pretty serious to me. Uncertainty is there but the parameters being modeled are impressive.

    Also, if you’re a night owl and are up late tonight, have an eye to the sky- not for storms, but the Northern Lights! Very strong solar storm in progress, auroras should come way south tonight.

      1. Probably any time after dark, and best away from city lights. I’m no expert on it though.

    1. I was just giving you a hard time you know.
      When you give a time like that, I always factor in that it’s possible
      you would get tied up with something. Happens here all of the time.

      We look forward to reading.

      Can I guess.

      Showers and Thunderstorms, some strong to severe with a chance of
      an Isolated Tornado.

  39. Regarding what the SPC will do tomorrow in terms of probabilities in the enhanced risk tomorrow- I would say we’ll see a 30% risk for wind, which is what justifies the “enhanced” category. Probably 15% for hail, maybe 30%. Likely 5% for tornadoes. If it’s 10%, I’d be very concerned. June 1, 2011 was 5%. They’re pretty stingy with those 10%’s, even out in the Midwest. It would take a lot for them to issue that here.

    1. They had 10% all over the Midwest today with the same system headed this
      way. We shall see.

    2. Oh And I do agree, the SPC is stingy with that 10% category. We’ll be at
      least borderline for it. Where it was 10% today, significant tornado ingredients
      had a 75 bullseye. In New England tomorrow, the bullseye maxes out at
      60 in SE VT and SW NH. It is those areas that may get the 10%, the rest of the enhanced area and perhaps some adjacent slight areas, should see 5%.

      It will be interesting to see.

  40. Ok my thoughts on tomorrow remain unchanged. As far as parameters that make up the severe potential, they will pretty much all be there. It could stand to be a little hotter to add more fuel, so the high temps may be one minor limiting factor. The other potential limiting factor is something that the NWS posted about earlier, and that is cloud cover. Late morning-midday clearing = higher storm potential further east. Delayed clearing = less storm potential further east. Big storms are almost a certainly in western New England. The other potential limiting factor further east is wind direction. Too much south = storm killer. More westerly = storms survive much longer.

    Orientation / types of cells…
    Indications are for both speed and directional shear tomorrow. This combination would make it less likely that we get a solid squall line and more likely that we get a broken line of more individual cells or clusters, with cells having the higher potential to become supercells and rotate. By the time the area gets through Boston and heads into southeastern MA it will probably become more of a squall line.

    Timing…
    After 2PM west, after 4PM east. I think after 5PM for Boston area.

    1. Many thanks TK.

      Ok, given the potential for some rotating storms, do you think some place
      or 2 or 3 somewhere in New England sees a tornado tomorrow?
      Do you think there will be a tornado watch OR just a Severe thunderstorm
      watch with perhaps some enhanced wording?

      Many thanks

      1. I know we are putting you in a tough spot and no one will
        hold it to you. Just your thoughts or gut feeling will do nicely.

  41. Even there is a severe thunderstorm watch it does not mean there can’t be a tornado touch down. Back in July 2013 here in CT we had two tornado touch downs both EF 1 and there was no watch at all.

  43. Perhaps I am jumping the gun here. Even though there may be a threat here
    for an isolated tornado or 2 tomorrow, it doesn’t even mean the SPC will issue
    a watch.

    I was watching the MidWest today. The areas under a 10% chance had ZERO
    tornado watches, at least so far today. AND these areas had a 75 bullseye
    on the Significant Tornado Ingredients chart and they were also in a 6-8 area
    of Significant Tornado Parameter. Yet NO WATCH was issued.

    So, I guess that greatly reduces if not eliminates the chance of a watch here tomorrow.

    Sorry for my enthusiasm

    1. On the other hand, after looking at the latest surface map, the set up
      will be a bit different here tomorrow. The warm front will be North of us, yet will will be somewhat close to it with Front approaching. So who knows.

      I’m still concerned and we shall see.

  44. Awesome timing for the rough stuff in the Boston area for tomorrow, right when im about to tee off

    1. Do you have your portable shelter in working order?

      Ace, from the NWS:

      ALSO…NOT TO BE OVERLOOKED
      IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE A PROLIFIC AMOUNT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

        1. Do you have a 1 iron?

          If it starts to storm, just take out your 1 iron and hold it in the air. Not even God can hit a 1 iron.

  45. NWS in there latest dicussion introduces three possiblities for tomorrow. Hopefully that weakening MCS track further south and the clouds will hang tough. If it goes north of us then watch out.

  46. I think we know what solution were rooting for. Determing where that decaying MCS is going could be one of those nowcasting situations and that is the key.

    1. Hmmm, the 18Z NAM is confusing me. It looks like it keeps the MCS Around
      for quite awhile, then show stabilization, then destabilization. Simulated
      radar is confusing as well. I don’t know what to make of it.

      I think since it is 18Z, I’ll throw it out and wait for the 0Z run.

  47. Looking at the latest satellite loop, that MCS system has totally and completely
    decayed. Will there be another tonight into tomorrow AM? Also, it looks like
    whatever activity is left from it will pass to our North.

    Also, the farthest out radar reflectivity chart from the HRRR 15 hours out also
    looks to take it NORTH.

  48. From NWS out of Grey, ME regarding that MCS
    ANOTHER OPTION IS A TRACK CLOSER TO WHAT CONVECTION ALLOWING
    MODELS FAVOR. THIS WOULD BRING THE MCS CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL
    BORDER…WITH SHOWERS/STORMS SPILLING INTO THE MTNS. THIS WOULD
    LEAVE MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND PARTIALLY
    CLEAR. THIS WOULD LIKELY ALSO LEAVE A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
    WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING THRU THE FORECAST AREA. COUPLED
    WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM ALOFT…THESE BREAK IN
    CLOUDS WOULD SUPPORT CAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE
    AFTERNOON. FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER NEW TSTMS IN
    THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND…WITH SHEAR VECTORS KEEPING
    THINGS AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE
    WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS OR SUPERCELLS…AND
    ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING WINDS…POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT 70 MPH GUSTS
    GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. HAIL WILL LIKELY BE A SECONDARY
    THREAT…WITH AN ISOLD TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS
    SCENARIO IS IN THIS FORECASTER/S OPINION THE MOST LIKELY…AND IN
    AGREEMENT WITH LATEST SPC FORECAST

    1. I am afraid the out weather will be coming from DOOR #3.
      That appears to be the most likely scenario at this point.

      OH and one more thing from Taunton NWS:

      ALL THESE ABOVE FACTORS ABOVE HAVE US CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR…BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE CAPE COD CANAL GIVEN STRONG FORCING.

      Do I read this properly. Highest risk NEAR and NW of the Boston/Providence
      Corridor. YIKES!!!!!

  50. Eric Fisher posted a video. I can’t seem to link it.

    Basically he said Isolated tornado or 2 cannot be ruled out
    for tomorrow. Time frame 2-8 PM for all of the action.

    He did say highest risk N&W of he City.

    We shall see.

  51. Off topic note: Jack Williams is retiring this week. 🙁

    Jack’s final broadcast: This Thursday at 5:00 pm.

    Interesting note: Jack Williams started out in radio in 1959. 😀

  52. So far it appears on all the futurecast radars that the strong storms will be passing just due south and north of the city of Boston. That would certainly be fine with me.

    In other words, when the line of storms approach 495, they seem to literally split into two areas one north and one south of Boston. Is this scenario possible TK?

    1. It’s possible, but I’d put more stock in HRRR starting first thing in the morning.

  55. I believe today was the first time the Boston Harbor Buoy climbed above 60F. Maxed out at 60.3F.

    The seabreeze, in a warm airmass like today, while still cooling, is also becoming somewhat humid.

  56. News flash…..we got ACs cleaned and mold free. Hmmmm maybe I’m reading too many breaking news stories. Perhaps that is not important ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

      1. Of the 3 possible scenarios laid out by the Taunton office of NWS, Door #3 is the worst possible outcome.

        In other words, there probably won’t be too much in the
        way of debris clouds because they will all be to our North.

  60. 21Z SREF
    Significant Tornado Ingredients
    18Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015062221/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f021.gif

    21Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015062221/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f024.gif

    Significant Tornado Parameter
    18Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015062221/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f021.gif

    21Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015062221/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f024.gif

    Pretty much the same as 15Z

    Will check it in the AM with the 3Z followed by the 9Z

    1. You know what Brady should do?
      Take a regulation football and shove it up you know where on you know who!!!
      And leave it there!

    2. Fantastic. My favorite paragraph is below although I do think Goodell and others were drooling thinking they “had the pats”

      “Unlike many Patriots fans who believe the NFL is maliciously targeting Brady and the Patriots to assuage the rest of NFL teams and fans who consider the Patriots serial cheaters, Greenway believes the NFL is simply incompetent.”

    1. Tornado hit a very large trailer park in the Grundy, IL area. First responders are having a tough time getting into the area due to so many downed trees.

  65. 0z NAM
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=EHI&hh2=018&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=021
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=CAPE&hh2=021&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=018
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=nam&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=LI&hh2=018&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=021

  67. SPC Severe Risk Map

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1435054636734

    Tornado

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif?1435054666802

    WxWatcher and JJ were correct, only 5%. not the 10% I had predicted.
    That probably won’t change with the next update either. We’ll see.

    None-the-Less, last night at 11PM, Eric Fisher predicted that there would be a tornado watch today in our area. Let’s see how SPC handles it later today.

  69. Those parameters from the SREF are UP from Yesterday.
    It includes a Significant tornado ingredients bullseye of 75 (60 yesterday) for Southern VT and Boston is in the 30 zone (15 from yesterday). The signifcant tornado parameter
    remains at 2 in the area, which is high.

    I still predict a tornado watch will be issued by N0on time or sooner.

  70. Regarding all of this talk about Cloud Debris…It’s all goobly goop.

    The Sun is out. The satellite loop looks to bring a good period of sunshine to
    REALLY destabilize the atmosphere. It’s going to cook and percolate today.
    I predict enhance area moves slightly East some more. We shall see soon enough.

    here’s the satellite loop

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=irbw&size=small&endDate=20150623&endTime=-1&duration=12

    1. Look how potent the storms are to the West of us at this hour.
      The short wave and attendant Front mean business.
      Plenty of lift with high lapse rates. Plenty of speed shear with heights
      and Wind shear as well. Conditions are about as ripe as it gets around here
      for tornadoes. Does this mean there will be tornadoes? Nope.
      Does it mean they are possible today? YUP.

      Could be a very interesting afternoon and early evening, if not down right
      SCARY. Stay tuned.

        1. That line out in Western NY appears to be our action
          for this afternoon. The stuff in Northern NE
          is what is left of a mesoscale system. The fact that it
          passed North of us, does NOT bode well for this
          afternoon. Atmosphere will destabilize rapidly if not
          already. When that pre-frontal trough runs into this
          soup this PM with all the attendant energy. YIKES!!

  71. Does the line of shower out near buffalo need to come through first (this morning) or is that the actual line for this afternoon?

  72. hmmm just in from NWS

    WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MASSACHUSETTS GIVEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THIS CONVECTION OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING SOMEWHAT BUT HIGH LATE JUNE SUN ANGLE WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE DESTABILIZATION.

    Have they looked out the window? Considerable sunshine outside of my window.
    Duh!

  73. One thing I haven’t heard much mention of is the southerly wind direction on tap for most of today. That I believe was to be a limiting factor. I don’t see any added westerly component until that line of storms comes through.

  74. Looking forward to TK’s morning thoughts on today. To me though, it looks like we may escape today. Coastal mentioned the convection out near Buffalo; I don’t think that’s the main event, the HRRR has that moving through in the late morning to early afternoon. It tries to get some storms going behind it as well, but destabilization is lacking. Also, Ace mentioned the wind direction; right now, mostly S and even a few SSE at the ob stations. That would greatly limit the threat further east. Doesn’t mean we’re completely in the clear, and I could be wrong, but I don’t see a worst case scenario unfolding as it stands now. Watch for things to cloud over more next couple hours.

  75. Our meteorologists here in CT are saying the key is the midday and early afternoon. If there is sunshine out then look out.
    Well I got what I like to call self destructing sunshine right now which if it does stay out will only further destablize a very volitile atmospheree.

      1. He used the term more for cold pools aloft in a dry airmass. The classic instability where we get into drier air behind a cold front but an upper low triggers lots of diurnal cloud development once the sun heats the ground.

  76. Next update from SPC will be around 9AM and will see if anything changes with the risk areas or severe probabilities for hail, wind, and tornado.

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