Tuesday Forecast Update

416 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5…
Let’s keep it simple. Today’s severe weather threat comes down to timing and amount of sunshine. Ingredients will be in place. Lots of clouds along the leading edge of warm and more humid air will limit sun for a time mid morning into midday especially the further north you are. A shower may even survive into southern NH and northern MA briefly. This area will be eroding, however, and the amount of sunshine between this and the approaching cold front will dictate how unstable that atmosphere becomes and be the key factor in the development of thunderstorms and how far east they are able to survive, and the potential they have to become severe. Also, wind direction will be another key. A more southerly wind will limit storms the further south and east you are in southern New England. A more southwesterly to westerly wind will allow storms to survive longer. Storm threat window of time is 2PM to 8PM west to east. Will narrow this down in comments below as the day goes on. Looking ahead, great weather Wednesday. Clouds return later Thursday. End of week looks cooler and somewhat unsettled, but not sure of timing and how far north rain gets from low pressure to the south of the region.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. A shower possible northern MA or southern NH this morning. Showers/thunderstorms likely mid afternoon through early evening. Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in some areas including damaging winds and possible large hail. Brief torrential rain and frequent lightning possible. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially south. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs around 70.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28-JULY 2)…
Trough over the region means periods of unsettled weather and below normal temperatures. Most likely wet days later Sunday June 28 into Monday June 29, with a couple more shower threats following this in the June 30 to July 2 period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)…
Slow transition to warmer and drier weather is still expected.

416 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast Update”

  2. I know today is of importance, but Friday’s weather looks a bit more hopeful …. at least the chance for rain to stay south look a bit higher.

    2. I think the leading edge of some of that thick cirrus blowoff will be thinning/eroding with time.

      Plenty of high dewpoint air in central/western NY and PA to advect in. Near the solstice, I think we’ll get to the surface temp and dewpoint for destabilization without full sunshine today anyway.

      1. Agree 100%

        We are still in for it, I think. We will continue to monitor
        as the Atmosphere has a way with fooling us.

  6. Just saw the HRR projections for temps a few minutes ago on tv as one of our meteorologist was showing and that model was showing temps may get to 90 or just over 90 in parts of CT which will only add fuel to the fire. It did show a round of showers and storms midday early afternoon then a break sun comes out and more showers and storms later in the afternoon.

  8. There appears to be a finger of showers (maybe a storm ?) developing in Worcester County on the warm front.

    1. I thought it looked to be getting slightly larger in size but weakening in strength. It was just approaching shrewsbury if we are talking about same one. I think Scott is seeing same cloud cover I am

  9. Thank you TK

    Also thanks to WxWatcher, OS, Tom and JJ.

    Overcast here. 71 with 64 DP. Small cell to our west looks to be losing strength. Lots of junk in northern NH and VT.

  10. Your welcome Vicki. Were going to be here watching this situation evolve.
    From NWS out of Taunton. Found this Interesting
    WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE
    INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH
    OF MASSACHUSETTS GIVEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY WEST TO EAST.
    HOWEVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THIS CONVECTION OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN
    NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING SOMEWHAT BUT HIGH
    LATE JUNE SUN ANGLE WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE DESTABILIZATION WITH
    ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING ENSEMBLES 00Z GEFS AND 03Z SREF
    OFFERING AT LEAST 1200J/KG OF CAPE. THAT SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
    SOLAR HEATING AND TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO AT LEAST
    CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA. EVEN IF SB INSTABILITY IS LACKING MID LEVEL
    LAPSE RATES OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL PA AND NY ARE STEEP AT 7C/KM PER
    LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING
    EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. IN ADDITION STRONG WIND FIELDS CAN
    COMPENSATE IF INSTABILITY IS LACKING. THUS STILL EXPECTING AN
    ACTIVE DAY OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
    AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST

    1. Thanks JJ. I was wondering how much of a distance that area in northern NE would affect. The sky is more than interesting here. Mixed with the somewhat darker cloud cover are a few small areas of blue surrounded by lighter, fragmented (not sure what other word to use) clouds.

    2. Yup.

      The part that catches me eye is a bit more than halfway down where it says, “even if surface based (hopefully thats what SB means, cause thats how I took it) instability is lacking, mid level lapse rates …..

      I think by 1-2 pm, everything will have evolved to a partly to mostly sunny sky and somewhere out by Albany, NY, some broken/scattered super cell thunderstorms will be popping and the afternoon will be spent watching where the go and seeing how the southwest side of the storm is behaving.

      And all this stuff just north and west of us currently will be in eastern Maine or out in the ocean.

      Off to a celebration for the 5th graders as they move onto middle school.

  12. Dew points in the mid 60s where I am so that is one ingredient you need for thunderstorm development. Front coming through which will provide the lift. It all comes down to how much cloud cover happens today. If there is a lot of it the severe threat will lessen. If it doesn’t then we got to watch out. Even if the clouds hang tough I still think there will be areas of SNE that get thunderstorms.

  14. Thanks tk, if I were a betting man I would bet if there is any severe weather it will be isolated, and or miss all together, I’m sure we will here severe weather reports, but nothing widespread. We shall see 🙂

  15. Drove to the office in considerable sunshine. Overcast now as the remaining
    clouds from the cell discussed above rolls through. Car thermometer up to 76 already.

    Will continue to watch and wait.

    1. Unfortunately I think the sun will be back out soon to heat things up and create the de-stabilization.

  17. What I am watching is that batch of showers to the west of SNE and what happens after they move through. Will we get enough sunshine for the atmosphere to recover and if it does recover the second round of storms could pack a good punch.
    New update from the SPC coming in around 9AM.

  18. Thanks, TK.

    It’s very difficult at this time of year to have completely overcast skies, ‘though it does happen. Also, I think we have had severe storms w/o any sunshine, as I think Tom put it. So, as OS says, just watch and wait. I do believe at least a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be put out by noon. It’s cloudy in Sudbury and so far no rain and kind of brightening to the west a bit.

  21. We just had a very light rain shower. Some streaks of blue in the sky off to the west.

    Just a guess – the sun will be out today. Don’t know for how long. Probably in and out.

    1. Unfortunately, with conditions today, In and Out Sun is probably ample
      to fire off severe storms.

  23. 9Z SREF data beginning to come out. It will be a bit yet before we have what we need.
    Also, SPC new outlook is about to be available. In one spot it says it was just issued, yet
    the outlook is still showing previous one. Should be momentarily.

  26. Yeah Old Salty I looked at the tornado percentage. Talk about being in the bullseye with 5% chance of a tornado.
    I am wondering if they pushed the enhanced risk back further with the thinking western areas of SNE would be able to recover faster from that first round of showers and storms west of SNE that will be moving through.

    1. Sounds plausible for sure.
      Doesn’t let the rest of us off the hook yet.
      It may, however, decrease the size and location of any Tornado Watch,
      should one be posted. You may be in a watch, while we here in and near
      Boston now probably will not.

      We shall see.

      Thanks

  27. 9Z SREF

    Significant Tornado Ingredients
    18Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015062309/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f009.gif

    21Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015062309/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f012.gif

    This is slightly less than the 3Z run

    Significant Tornado Parameter
    18Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015062309/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f009.gif

    21Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015062309/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f012.gif

    This is about the same and has NOT decreased. If anything, perhaps increased a tad.

    The 15Z data won’t be out until about 3PM, perhaps in the action or and hour or 2 prior?

    1. I think one may be issued for the 5% area. We shall see.
      Shear and Helicity are pretty high.

  29. I am hoping this round of showers and storms coming through will zap a lot of the energy. I just have this feeling the atmosphere will be able to recover some and need to continue to watch that second round later today.

  31. More filtered sun than clouds in Framingham for about 1.5 hours now. Rainshine, we went to Sudbury for breakfast and noticed the shower was a bit heavier there. Temp 80 with a 69 DP – DP sure did climb and you can feel it.

    Very gusty wind from SE

      1. They always cover themselves, don’t they?
        This is a caveat at the end of the watch details:

        SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
        DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

  33. SPC did NOT issue a watch and they took down the mesoscale discussion.
    So much for that, eh?

    Let’s see what else they do, IF anything.

    Did we fall for the HYPE, yet again?

  34. Severe Thunderstorm Watch out for scattered areas of MA. Area of showers and storms out in ENY heading into Berkshires. I think the Watch is until 4:00. What happens after that? Isn’t the front supposed to come through after or around that time?

    1. JR had 2-5 west of Boston (495ish area) and 5-8 from there east

      Clouds moved back in here. Daughter said Uxbridge was sun around 9:00 but dark clouds were to her west and moving in.

    2. I think they should extend the watch until at least 6 or 7 – unless things look worse and they put up a Tornado Watch. Of course, a tornado can still form w/a thunderstorm watch, too.

  35. It is remotely possible – I have seen it in the past – where in conditions like this nothing severe develops. I wish that would be the case today, but I honestly feel some/many places will get severe weather in New England today/this evening.

  36. HMMM

    Wind at Boston is from 190, Blue Hill from 190
    Norwood from 180, Windsor Locks from 200, Pittsfield from 210

    Dew point at Boston is 67.
    Dew point at Windsor Locks is 69

    It’s getting soupy for sure.

    The wind direction, so far, is more from the SOUTH which could/should limit
    action near the Coast. Will it have more of a Westerly component later?
    I dunno. Some models suggest yes, others not so much.

  40. Yeah not sure of the rationale behind having a watch only till 4? That line is racing in here as you have mentioned. Also as per the Satellite there are breaks West of Albany which you would figure would work in here and provide fuel for storms this afternoon.

  43. NWS Taunton Skywarn ‏@WX1BOX 6m6 minutes ago

    It is noted that after the first round of convection, clearing is starting to commence rapidly. Today will continue to bear close watching.

  44. Storms past Springfield already AND IF my eyes do NOT deceive me, they are
    WEAKENING. If they are weakening, what is the reason. In some sort of
    weird way, will the energy be transferred (not correct term here) or be held in
    reserve for the pre-frontal trough to pass through later?

    What’s up with that. In line with what Coastal just posted, no?

    BTW, it would still NOT surprise me if SPC issued a tornado watch later.

  46. I have had hazy sunshine pretty much all morning long. The watch is up to 4pm. I wonder if later on this watch will extend later into the evening.

  47. Thunder and heavy rain just zipping through Worcester. Brightening not too far off to the West.

  49. So should we expect this first set of storms to quickly pass through, a period of quiet to follow, and then more storms to blow up later this afternoon?

  50. Got to watch if any sunshine comes out after that first round of showers and storms. If a good amount of sun comes out after this first round the storms could pack quite a punch particularly in the interior. As you get near the coast maybe just enough wind of the water to weaken those storms. Those showers are moving north of me and at times this morning where I am we have had total sunshine other times partly cloudy. Now just a bit of peak a boo sunshine.

  51. Thunder to the NW and clouds flying overhead.

    I know the clearing between this line and this pm make a difference, but do areas that have the thunder now get enough energy zapped to lessen events in same areas this pm?

    1. IF those areas get enough sunshine, no, energy won’t be zapped.

      Time will tell.

      Those storms are approaching here. Can see dark skies to the West.

  53. That should zap some of the energy. The question becomes if enough sunshine behind the first round of showers and storms comes out will there be enough time for the atmosphere to destablize enough to allow for potent thunderstorm activity.

  54. Old Salty posted a link earlier of the satellite loop. There is a lot of clearing in NY State right now and will how quickly that clearing could get into SNE.

  55. FROM NWS Taunton:

    A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH IS NOT JUST FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT AT THIS TIME BUT ALSO FOR STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT.

    WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…THERE IS CLEARING BEHIND THIS FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES AT LEAST 500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CURRENTLY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON AND WE GET SOME CLEARING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

    MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL PA AND NY ARE STEEP AT 7C/KM PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
    ADVECTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. IN ADDITION STRONG WIND
    FIELDS CAN COMPENSATE IF INSTABILITY IS LACKING. THUS STILL
    EXPECTING AN ACTIVE DAY OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

  56. I’m still baffled at the watch being just until 4pm. I’d be ecstatic if there was no chance of anything after that

    1. Oh, HRRR
      I thought you didn’t care for that model? Only in Winter? In Summer it’s OK?
      OR is it just performing well today?

  59. You got dew points in upper 60s around 70 so that is one key ingredient you need for thunderstorm development which is in place. It all comes to the sunshine we get behind first round. Were not out of the woods yet and will be watching the radar.

  60. Thanks JJ and OS. Moving through quickly but seems to be a second much weaker area behind so perhaps clear, cloud up, clear. Unless second falls apart completely. For anyone reading who might be new to the blog, I am the last person to pay attention to. I observe and ask question

    2. Sooo, looking at that, I would say the severe thunderstorm watch should be and will be extended far past 4pm

  63. I love the HRRR, but it’s struggling today. Inconsistent run-to-run and generally inaccurate on the evolution of morning showers/storms. It could turn it around, but I’d be wary. Not much change in my thinking. Overcast here in Wrentham, and should be for another hour or two. I don’t think we’ll have time for full destabilization. However, a strong to severe storm or two is certainly possible between 4-7PM, with damaging winds the main threat. More threat farther SW.

  64. Lame where I am (Woburn) but happy it was (so far). Super bursts flood my driveway but so far it’s been moderate to light.

      1. Yes vicki. Oddly, the storm doesn’t look that impressive on radar. I was surprised when i first saw that

        1. Even to me it didn’t look so and I wondered about the 52 minutes as the systems are moving very quickly.

    2. Its moving so fast, it will be over water very quickly.

      Hopefully, the rotation is in the clouds and not making it to the ground.

        1. No, but I am not looking at a dopplar.

          Judging by the radar, if there’s anything there, it appears rain-wrapped.

  67. This shows how volitile the atmosphere is. The cold is still way back to the west.
    Meteorologist Gil Simmons here in CT said he feels the watch should be extended to 6 7pm.

  68. The way the storms have been moving I would expect the North Shore to be under the gun later as well. I’d expect a Tornado Watch to go up this afternoon.

  69. One thing I noticed about these storms ……

    They are absolutely flying, so …… whatever warnings come from later storms, I hope that folks are ready to act on the warnings quickly because a thunderstorm will be on top of a certain location very, very quickly.

  70. The fast movement of these storms should make so were not dealing with a flood threat. Sometimes you get these storms that don’t move quickly your dealing with flooding but that is not the case today.
    Sun is back out now where I am. There was a halt on the instability for a little while. If this sun stays out instablity is going to increase.

  72. At the moment, the sun is out in Sudbury.

    Where is the cold front now? If in NY state what part of the state?

    1. Was out here for a second but cloud cover again. Although, as has been said, clouds are zipping along up there so could easily go back to sun quickly

      1. That’s how it is here, too. But sometimes the sun comes out very strong. Not good, stability wise.

    1. Sure …… The humidity may take a few more hours to drop after whatever storms come through later on.

  77. As we saw with that tornado warning that was in the slight risk area and 2% tornado chance. Need to watch this situation this afternoon into this evening.

  78. Here’s what has happened to temps and wind direction from noon to 1pm in central and western New England ….

    Pittsfield : Temp from 74F to 79F, wind Direction from 200 to 230 degrees, dp : 69F.

    Westfield : Temp from 77F to 82F, wind direction from 180 to 200, dp : 73F.

    Springfield : temp from 77F to 82F, wind direction from 190 to 210, dp : 73F.

    Albany : temp from 78F to 83F, wind direction from 160 to 190, dp : 71F.

  80. There was a tornado warning on the north shore Charlie. There are new storms firing over central PA and we watching that as it associated with the front coming through.

  81. Just came in from Copley Square. Boy oh boy is it soupy out there. Really really
    HUMID and Quite a bit of Sunshine, I might add. Could get interesting around
    these parts a little later.

  82. 9Z SREF is in. Virtually identical to the 3Z charts, so I won’t bother posting.
    We’re still under the gun.

  84. I have had bright sunshine now for just over half hour. It did get cloudy for an hour and half. Looking at radar storms still in central PA and with clear skies in front of it there is fuel in place.

  85. I really expected that warm front to come through a lot earlier in the day. I think that bodes well for those in eastern sections if you don’t want severe weather. Less than 2 hours to go for the severe thunderstorm watch and not much out there yet ahead of and along the cold front

  87. Very cloudy in Wrentham. It’s actually been a pretty nice day, although it’s gotten pretty humid. Can’t imagine we’ll see much in the way of storms here.

  88. 2PM OBS for Logan
    Temp: 81
    Dew Point: 70
    Wind from 190 at 12 knots

    There may be A large Southerly component to the wind, crap it is virtually South, BUT
    at this time we are NOT experiencing a marine layer. Therefore, storms are still
    possible. We shall see later on. It’s like a SAUNA out there!

  89. Most ob stations are showing a SSW to SW wind, so that shouldn’t be too much of an inhibiting factor. Just the lack of Sun.

    2. PLENTY of Sun here. It’s not totally sunny, but the sun is out often and when
      not out fully, it is fairly strong filtered sunshine.

      1. South of Boston for whatever reason has been mostly cloudy since 8am with only brief breaks of filtered sun.

        1. Thank goodness, as its about 80F with a 70F dewpoint. What would it have been like with sunshine ? 🙂

    1. Sometimes it shining through high cloudiness, BUT it is Bright and Sunny
      here in Roxbury.

  92. 82-87F in central and western MA. Dewpoints around 70F + or – a couple F.

    I wonder if things pop or if we’re watching the stuff further west ??

  95. I was reading Ch 5 weather. They have some really good people posting on their weather page…..much unlike BZ although perhaps that has changed as I haven’t checked it in many months.

  96. That storm, now well out into the ocean, the one that had the tornado warning on the north shore still looks vicious and on the weather underground radar, looks like its still broadly rotating.

    After having looked at the water vapor loop, I wonder if those light showers in southernmost VT and near Keene, NH are the beginnings of something …….

  98. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0146 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

    Areas affected, eastern ny into ct/ri/mass/vt/nh/maine

    concerning, severe thunderstorm watch 341…

    valid 231846Z – 232015Z

    the severe weather threat for severe thunderstorm watch 341
    continues.

    summary, at least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
    expected to redevelop/increase through mid/late afternoon from
    eastern ny into portions of new england. an additional/replacement
    watch will likely be needed later this afternoon for at least
    portions of the region.

    discussion, in the wake of early day convection/cloud
    cover, modest air mass recovery/destabilization continues to
    gradually occur particularly across eastern ny into southern/far
    western new england as of mid-afternoon ahead of a cold front, with
    a related increase in showers/some thunderstorms across eastern ny
    as of 245 PM edt/1845Z. storms should continue to increase in
    coverage/intensity the remainder of the afternoon, with at least
    glancing influences of an eastward-moving upper trough over southern
    quebec. this intensification could include the potential for some
    supercells capable of severe hail and possibly a tornado
    risk, particularly given the strength of lower/middle tropospheric
    winds, even with a tendency for low-level veering. the
    east-southeastward spread of multicells/evolving linear bands may
    ultimately be the more prevalent concern as storms increase/spread
    east-southeastward through the early/mid-evening hours.

    1. Thank you, JJ. I know several folks who are watching in order to make travel decisions for late pm. Helps to have this information.

      1. I cancelled the electrician who was coming over around
        5PM today. I just didn’t want to deal with that in case
        there was a bad storm OR IF I needed to be monitoring the situation.

  100. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0146 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

    AREAS AFFECTED…EASTERN NY INTO CT/RI/MASS/VT/NH/MAINE

    CONCERNING…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341…

    VALID 231846Z – 232015Z

    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341
    CONTINUES.

    SUMMARY…AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
    EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM
    EASTERN NY INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. AN ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT
    WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST
    PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

  101. I think we knew the watch would be extended, but could we also so a Tornado Watch issued for some areas as well?

    1. That’s what our concern has been all along. I guess it depends upon
      how much of a risk of a tornado SPC assigns to the situation. IF risk is there, but low enough, they throw in wording on the STW and do not issue a tornado
      watch. On the other hand, if they feel there is sufficient risk, then they go ahead
      and issue the tornado watch.

      We shall see, but probably they will extend the existing severe thunderstorm
      watch with either the same wording or slightly enhanced wording.

      It will be interesting to see.

      Not mentioned in the post above is the helicity which is pretty high with
      values around 200 to 250, which is clearly enough to get storms rotating,
      especially with the speed shear with height.

  102. From Scott’s post above of particular note is the following:

    this intensification could include the potential for some
    supercells capable of severe hail and possibly a tornado
    risk, particularly given the strength of lower/middle tropospheric
    winds, even with a tendency for low-level veering

  104. And ….. the surface has warmed substantially.

    For all the earlier clouds, its generally 85F to 90F with dp’s near 70F.

  105. Also from Scott’s post above:

    even with a tendency for low-level veering

    In other words we’ll be getting MORE of a Westerly component to the Wind.
    (If a S wind veers it goes to SSW and then to SW and then possibly to WSW)
    This means, of course, that storms will survive to the coast more easily and probably likely for that matter. AND it also means (from what was said before that line) that there is enough speed shear with height and still enough helicity to get storms rotating.

    Still a potentially serious situation.

  106. Storms firing now West of Albany. I think we will start to see some action firing in W Mass/CT shortly.

  107. I am waiting for this watch to be extended to 7 8 pm tonight. I would think it would be a severe thunderstorm watch.
    I do remember a situation a couple years ago where they issued a severe thunderstorm watch and we had tornado warning just north of me and parts of western MA they decided to upgrade to a tornado watch CT River Valley points east.

  108. Sun finally did come out in Wrentham a half hour or so ago, and boy can you feel the difference, what a soup. Quite breezy as well. Quiet radar. We’ll see what the SPC thinks on their last update in half an hour or so. I’d guess little change to the convective outlook, and either a new severe t-storm watch or an extension of the current one.

  109. Mini super cell tstorm in southeastern NH, north of the Merrimack River, east northeast of Derry, with an anticyclonic meso on the north side of the cell.

    1. The speed of these storms are amazing …. The cell you mentioned was a light shower over southern VT about 45 minutes ago.

      1. Or maybe not after having looked at the wunderground radar below. Looks like the showers I was mentioning tracked up over Concord, NH

  111. Huh, SPC must know something. New severe thunderstorm watch up til 9PM but only for far western MA and adjacent areas. Nothing near us.

    1. BTW,

      They indicated a MODERATE RISK for TORNADOES!!!!!

      NEVER have I seen that for our area!!!!!!!

  120. Oh Boy those storms are bubbling up and look OMINOUS!

    HOLY CRAP ON A CRACKER! As Penny from Bing Bang would say.

  122. Lots of sunshine in Plymouth now. The air is quite soupy and the wind is still gusty. It just has that thunderstorm feel in the air.

  124. Noticed that mid level lapse rated were at the 7c/km rate in the worst case scenario in the NWS AFD from yesterday. Those are currently over PA and expected to move east. That scenario was the one that included multiple tornadoes with the potential for a long-track one.

  125. That patch of storms in SE most NY State and SW most CT have already traveled from northeast Pennsylvania.

    They are flying ENE. I wonder if they could survive the trek across south central CT, central RI and into SE Mass ??

      1. Whatever happens, lets hope its pre 9pm while there is still daylight.

        My instinct says that with the speed of movement and the current location of the thunderstorms, that hopefully it will be off the Mass coastline by dusk.

        1. Hope so, we don’t need any night time terror
          around here.

          My wife wanted to go shopping, but I think this is
          one time she’ll be happy for me me to be manning
          the weather computer.

            1. She thinks I am NUTS anyway.
              She called me because my son messaged
              her on FB. I didn’t even get her the info
              first because I was actually working.
              I checked 5 minutes prior and it wasn’t there. Then my cell phone rings and it’s my scared wife. She said what should I do?

              I told her nothing right now. I had to tell
              her that I would be Home before any
              storms arrived.

      1. I think Waterbury. On I-84. Lots of action on I-84.

        What concerns me in the Boston area and especially points south is the fact that the storms are not dissipating as much as they usually do as they move from west to east.

        1. Yes.

          If you remember from Scott’s post in the discussion
          from SPC, they indicated that winds were veering, which would keep them together to the coast.

          Nasty evening for sure!

  133. One popping and Intensifying around Hopkinton.
    It is a renegade storm and those are the dangerous ones!

    I need to watch this one.

  134. That is a bowling ball mass of storms in southern CT, with no signs as of yet of losing intensity.

  135. YIKES!!!

    Storms just literally BLOWING up between 496 and the old 128.

    Holy CRAP!!!!!!!!

  137. SO far, I see no rotation with the storms in the 495 belt, BUT that could change in
    an instant!

  138. REALLY NASTY storm in NE Connecticut ready to cross into MA around Webster and/or Douglas.

  144. Seriously unless someone here makes dinner we are not eating tonight. I won’t be able to out the iPad down

  145. What is NWS doing? Give that Northern CT Cell a warning, looks absolutely nasty and there’s no way it doesn’t have a severe hail core.

      2. Well I’ll stick with that as I can then enjoy Tstorms. Although winds and hail…still possible

      3. Not for nothing, but there is enough speed shear to rotate
        storms anyway. AND there is PLENTY of Helicity up here.

  147. They did just warn the storm in northern Litchfield County in CT.
    These storms are moving so fast. One munute out my window sunny and then few minutes later gusty winds vivid lightning.

    1. Sun out our window too JJ but towering clouds moving in but I think will just clip us to south

  149. Son heading from here to Pawtucket for meeting in about 30-40 minutes. I’m thrilled …..ugh

        1. For the storm Vicki . We are the front line for all weather events and emergencies .

  154. For whatever reason there is a ton of CIN over NE MA, that may limit the storm threat there.

  155. They got this tornado watch up to 11pm but these storms are racing. I wouldn’t be surprised this watch gets dropped before then unless some new storms start to form

  156. Crazy wind on those storms in CT. The storm near me may be starting to rotate just a hair, worth watching but nothing alarming yet. Worst of it looks to go near or just north of me, raining with some thunder now.

    1. False TVS. Happens from time to time. The storm is starting to rotate, but it’s not serious yet.

  158. It gets dark and then sun comes out here in Sudbury. Finally put on the A/C. Clouds, like Vicki said (I think you did!) are moving fast as the the storms are too. Clouds are dark, too.

  162. There will be areas that get missed by storms and people will wrongly label the situation a bust. NOT A BUST.

  166. In the Wrentham shopping outlets and that cell is just showing up. It’s funny because everyone’s phones in the mall started ringing at the same time for the Tornado Warning!

  168. Classic TVS. My storm chaser friend saw this coming 1/2 hour ago on this very storm. Experience helps.

  172. This is some of the loudest thunder i have ever heard in this cell. Also some of the clouds here were getting very low and I could see the rotation on them. Very scary situation as we are all standing outside.

    1. You are standing outside in the thunder? Holding a cell phone? I’m hoping I didn’t read correctly. If I did, may we schedule a discussion for later tonight please?

      1. Haha I wasn’t on my phone it was in my pocket don’t worry! I went in a store to type these posts

    1. It certainly had some rotation and was very low but it did not last longer than a couple minutes

  176. They just blew the horns and pulled everyone off the course. Got through 2 holes. Just thunder no visible lightning or rain. We’re just on the northern edge of that cell but it’s weakening and sliding due east.

      1. Canton right now but wife said heavy rain and thunder at home in Sharon. We we’re just on the northern edge

  177. Wow, that threw a scare into me. Just got out of the basement. No tornado in the area as far as I know, the worst rotation may have gone just south of me. No hail, and I had the heaviest echoes right over me. Plenty of thunder and lightning, and torrential rain. Looks like we did destabilize enough after all…

  178. SS folks. Pete just showed track and it looks exactly as Tom said, heading your way. ..it is a rotating thunderstorm. It said could be outflow from a while ago that didn’t let tornado form

  179. What service said boston providence corridor yesterday? Sure seems to be spot on. Tornado warning now extended east.

  180. You hope that rotation stays in the clouds and doesn’t come down to the surface. Tornado or no tornado still a strom that means business.

    1. Pete just said where it sits now as a sustained rotating thunderstorm if one touches down it will be on 495 around taunton

      1. I’m telling my wife to get home. Being on the frontline of any major weather event is tough because I’m never at home when the family is going through it.

  182. We been talking about this Potential here on the blog for these storms and SREF model to me which Old Salty posted once again did a good job pinpointing areas where possible tornadic storms could form.

  184. Back on the course but I anticipate being called again before we finish. I was having a good round too, birdie the par

    2. You have the right to your opinion and I have the right to mine. And mine is this: I am THANKFUL that you are not a meteorologist my friend. 😛

      1. Like I’ve said living in Texas ruins it, lol it’s quite funny, we got rain thunder and lightening,, that is all, glad everyone’s safe 🙂

        2. Money is nice. Happiness is nicer. As long as you like what you do, the money is just a nice bonus. 🙂 Anyway, I got a squall line to monitor.

          BTW they had a nice shot of Patriot Place on the news earlier with nasty looking clouds behind it.

  192. No damage at all at my house, and walked the neighborhood and nothing out of the ordinary. Not so in other parts of town I guess though, some trees/wires down. 1.01″ of rain in about 25 minutes. Looks like we got the storm of the day though. I think the morning clouds did have an impact, but not enough to completely stop the afternoon storms. Keeping an eye on the stuff further west as well. That Athol storm that Vicki mentioned is worth watching. Wonder how those storms will fare as they head east.

    Very thankful to all of you for the informative posts today and the past couple days on this event! 🙂 🙂

  196. Complete tree carnage along Route 15 (the Wilbur Cross Parkway) in Wallingford, CT from the earlier severe thunderstorm that crossed Fairfield and New Haven counties around 4-4:30. I came through the heart of the storm driving on my way back from Stamford to Manchester. Lots of flooding in the road and pieces of small tree branches hitting the car. By the time I hit Wallingford, there were several large tree branches and entire trees blocking the roadway. Had to drive in the mud in the median to get around one of them in the company Prius, which was interesting. The SB direction was a parking lot and completely impassable with trees down that had narrowly missed cars. White knuckle drive to say the least!

    This did not look like a tornado – the tree damage was widespread for a couple of miles. Appeared to be straight line wind damage. I’ll try to post some photos.

    2. Hi Mark. Good to see you and glad you are ok. That is nasty. JJ hasn’t been on for a bit. Hope all ok with him

      1. Thanks Vicki. Had to come out of my summer hibernation for this one. I have now had my fill of severe weather for awhile!

  197. Severe cell in north central MA merges with squall line as it comes down Route 2 but it MAY lose its base convection before it gets to Boston. The rest of the line is going to make for an interesting evening in south central to southeastern MA, CT, and RI. We’ll see how far southeast it gets before losing punch.

    1. Oh boy ….

      That was a draining hour of watching that storm from just north of Rhode Island to just south of Marshfield …….

      Guess its back to the radars. 🙂

    1. They may merge near the S Coast but the entire thing may miss you unless the lead cell stays active or redevelops.

        1. Amazingly, none of these trees fell on cars despite it being rush hour and it appeared that no one was injured. There are reports of trees down on houses in Monroe and Hamden, and as of 7PM, there were 45,000 people in CT without power.

          1. Thank God. May be why we are not hearing from JJ

            Cell north of here seems to be losing strength.

  201. I’m interested in seeing if that line coming NE off of LI sound interacts with the line coming E-SE through western MA & CT.

  202. We got the little league game in here in Lunenburg. The game ended at 7:15 and just then some light rain started along with lightening.

    Most of the hard rain came while we were in the grocery store after the game. When we got back out to the parking lot, the sun was out and there was an amazing pair of complete rainbows.

  203. Hello.

    Sorry I missed all of the action here, but I was in the living room with Mrs.
    OS watching Eric and Barry. I have to say that storm that left NW RI and cruised into MA and eventually headed out North of Plymouth had the MOST IMPRESSIVE
    HOOK ECHO I have ever seen around these parts. Only one better or similar
    was a photo I saw of the 1953 Worcester Tornado.

    When I saw that from Eric, I was convinced there was a tornado.

    Hey there may have been still. We don’t have all of the information in yet.

    Also, great photos Mark. I posted Rotation on a storm in that area. Don’t know if it was the same storm or not. See above. I’d be interested in your comments. It’s up there somewhere.

    1. The world looks orange OS. I tried to take a picture but iphone doesn’t do it justice. And we missed you

  205. Mark good so see back here on the blog.
    That was an impressive cluster of storms that moved through Southern CT which started over the boarder in Westchester County NY. Thankfully I had no damage here but the winds did gust quite a bit here and I lost power briefly.
    Still a couple severe thunderstorm warnings up here in CT.

  206. Here we go again….getting ready for round 2! Severe thunderstorm warning hoisted for Hartford County, including Manchester where I am right now. Sky to the north is lit up and lots of thunder.

    JJ, I am glad you didn’t have any damage.

    OS, the pattern of damage in southern CT was not consistent with that of a tornado. It was more widespread straight line wind damage consistent with a micro (or macro) burst as TK suggested earlier.

    1. Oh I understand that. It’s just that I saw clear rotation on a storm down
      that way. I think it was just before noon.

      1. Nice shot OS, thanks. The point I passed all the storm damage was about 30 miles east of there. It appeared to gain strength as it moved further east.

    1. JJ, you are correct. Torrents of rain here and lots of thunder and lightning but not much wind – certainly nothing severe.

  211. Looks like the severe stuff is done. I know there were those couple cells but I really think the region as a whole lucked out on this one. I was surprised at the local nature of the storms, most radar projections had a defined line of sever storms coming through the area.

    1. I thought someone here had said isolated areas and not line. Can’t remember who or if I made it up…which I can do very well

      1. I think TK indicated discrete cells to the West, but eventually
        merging to a squall line to the East. There was a line for sure
        to the South, otherwise mostly discrete cells which can be
        the most dangerous.

  213. Well that was a fun day. Happy everyone is safe.

    I was wrong about a 10% chance of tornadoes today, but correct that there would
    be a tornado watch.

    Tornado watches are just so rare around here. Several years ago we had a tornado
    watch 2 days in a row. Can’t remember IF there were any tornadoes or not. Certainly none near the City.

  214. I remember that Old Salty. It was in June on Saturday and Sunday. I want to say that Sunday there was an intense squall line that made it all the way to Boston if I remember correctly on that Sunday.

    1. I do recall it was the weekend. I don’t remember seeing anything close
      to severe weather here. Perhaps I am jaded and if the house didn’t blow
      over, then it was not severe. I dunno.

  219. Boston missed out almost entirely on the storms. But, to our south and east (Cape Cod) it’s heating up. Some of the most severe storms from today’s batch are occurring right now over parts of the Cape. I see that wind gusts of 65mph have been reported. No tornadoes, however. It would be some fluke if C Cod got a tornado while the rest of the state did not.

  220. I’m betting there is one heck of a light show in the clouds over the ocean along the south shore

  222. Chamber of commerce weather today !!

    This might be my favorite summer weather, 80F to 85F, dewpoints of 55F to 60F, sunny ………. possibly a light, comfortable coastal seabreeze ……

    Now, as for what is to come ……. 54F again, at 3am in Barrow, AK. The smoke in Fairbanks, AK from all the fires is so thick, the sun was struggling yesterday to even dimly shine through and we’re about to go into a cool, rainy pattern that is very out of season ……

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