Thursday Forecast Update

53 Comments

2:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)…
While preparing this discussion and forecast, I was looking over the computer guidance and noting 2 waves of low pressure we have been watching for a couple days, forecast to impact this area one way or another. Of course, the computer forecasts have shifted around a little between a couple days ago and now, and this is far from a surprise, but looking at the set-up reminds me of some of the forecasts we dealt with back in the Winter, as in where will low pressure track? Will it track close enough to give us precipitation? What will the exact track be? etc. … A big difference, it’s late June, and we’re not dealing with precipitation types. An amusing thought as I examined this pattern that reminds me of Winter during the time of year the furthest removed from it we can be. Now don’t misread me here. I’m NOT saying we’re in a Winter-like pattern. Having low pressure track to the south of New England, as it will do tonight and early Friday, is not highly unusual, given we are on the cooler side of the jet stream with a trough over the Northeast at this time. This general pattern will continue, but the next low pressure area that passes through the region this week is destined to not only come closer, but probably track right across southeastern New England on Sunday, bringing brief but significant rain. Again, this will not be a drought-breaking rain situation, as several precipitation events are going to be needed to erase the long-standing deficit. Right now, I’m not seeing any signs of significant rain events lining up and occurring in succession, so the drought will continue. As we get by the weekend threat and head into the start of the July 4 week and the final couple days of June, we’ll catch a break from the rain but it will remain on the cooler side of normal.
TODAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 72-77 coast, 78-83 interior. Wind light NW becoming locally onshore near the coast.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of light rain mainly south of the Mass Pike for a few hours late evening into overnight. Lows 55-60. Wind light E.
FRIDAY: Decreasing clouds morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind light E shifting to N.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-60.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 70-75.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 60-65.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain morning. Partly sunny with a chance of showers afternoon. Highs 70-75.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-75.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30-JULY 4)…
Low pressure trough over the Northeast slowly retrogrades to the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest as a broad area of high pressure builds in the western Atlantic. This will allow temperatures to trend from below to near normal during this time, though there will still be a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms with passing disturbances. Timing will be critical as many will be on vacation and have outdoor plans heading toward and including July 4.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)…
Current trends suggest the pattern that becomes established in the first few days of July will continue during this period as well with episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms but overall rainfall near to below normal, and variable temperatures averaging out close to seasonal normals for early July.

53 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast Update”

  4. NEED HELP.

    We are having an outdoor, on-the-balcony company event tonight from 6-8 PM (Downtown). What I need is a good online radar site where I can keep an eye on the rain cells / bands in case we have to move everything indoors. (I am at the office and my radar links are on my home computer.)

    Any suggested links??

    Thanking you in advance, Longshot.

        1. You’ll be happy with the weather underground.
          Even though you won’t need it today, the different
          radar modes on that site are awesome, especially the
          Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity mode. Use that all of the time with thunderstorms to pick up rotation. But I think you are well aware. 😀

  5. Thanks TK.
    6z GFS brings a little instability in the Boston area for Sunday. Lift in -1 -2 range CAPE in 250 – 500 range. Certainly not impressive instablitiy but enough where there could be a rumble of thunder Sunday.
    Tuesday looks to offer more instablity for thunderstorms.

  6. I believe this Sunday will the second unsettled one in a row…a pattern to continue? Hmmm. It seems once we get into them (fair or foul) they last for weeks on end. I just hope these type of Sundays will not define our summer.

    1. I dunno, let me see.

      Satellite image:

      http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=vis&size=small&endDate=20150625&endTime=-1&duration=12

      Current Surface map:

      http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

      Latest HRRR composite reflectivity shows a hint of a very brief shower or
      2 around the 5Pm to 6Pm time frame, but I’m not buying it.

      HRRR total accumulated precip from now till 8PM

      http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015062515/t3/totp_t3sfc_f09.png

      It looks pretty rain free with an ever so light chance of a brief shower.

      I think you’ll be fine. But that is just I.

      Have fun!

        1. Looking as if mother nature is going to behave. Enjoy the party, Longshot. Sounds very nice!

  11. 12Z GFS looks to warm sector us on Sunday (great call Tom), however,
    CMC not so much, and pretty much not with Euro.

    We shall see.

  12. Ought oh!

    Longshot, there is a shower out there. So much for listening to me.

    It’s not much but it’s out there.

    Just inside 495 following the ESE turn of rt. 2, heading towards Boston.
    Not sure it will hold together, but it is out there.

      1. That’s why all of those clutter echos are there. It’s picking up
        mosquito droppings.

    1. IF the GFS holds true, then there WILL be instability as we get
      warm sectored in one shape or another. We’ll have to monitor that.

  17. Unfortunately, we had some instability today and the Sun’s heating plus and approaching front was enough lift to trigger a bit of convection.

  19. With this Sunday system, I wonder if the +3C water temp anomolies southeast of Cape Cod are going to add further moisture and energy to what already looks like a pretty decent low pressure area. Especially if the surface winds are E slowly veering towards SE and maybe S. …….. Big rains in central and western New England ????

  21. Longshot, how did it go. Looks like it stayed dry,
    Although some sprinkles hit my winshield
    On the way home about 5:15

    2. Enjoy the down time OS …..

      If the pattern is going to unfold as advertised, with an active jet stream and disturbances …… while the Sunday system seems destined to be a general rainstorm ………… it appears to me that other disturbances down the pipeline could be just a bit further north and west, meaning more thunderstorms and severe weather possibilities, especially with the jet stream rather close by.

    1. Has that been investigated? And would it have been in the am cell that went through or the last one in the evening?

  24. The tornado was investigated mainly due to an email sent by my friend after seeing the video. It occurred just before 7:30PM. 🙂

    1. Good for your friend and very cool. That was the system that had a tstorm warning box and I seem to recall OS or maybe Tom? Said theyd seen rotation. Have to go back and read

    2. Excellent work by your friend …..

      Vicki, I think it was the evening cell that was separate from a line of storms in CT. We were talking to someone who it was near. If I have the right cell, it fell apart not too much further along in its path.

      1. I think we are talking about same one. Scott77 mentioned it in sterling. OS did not. It was Pete who mentioned he thought he saw roatation. It had gone through athol.

        2. Ugh my memory needs help. It was harvey who was worried about that cell over athol. TK also mentioned it

  25. Well, the EURO is now down to 994 mb and the GFS around 998 mb for the Saturday night into Sunday system. Both are advertising some wind as well …….

  26. That is interesting. I did notice a hook on radar. The storm had weakened when it got to Sterling. Just had rain and wind. I’ve noticed since I’ve lived in Sterling that storms seem to weaken as they go over the mountain.

    1. Very interesting indeed with regard to mountains. I wonder if it would have ever been noticed if not for TK’s friend.

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