Monday Forecast Update

59 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5…
The primary low pressure area that spawned the secondary low that brought the rain on Sunday will move across the region today with a few showers around this morning otherwise just lots of clouds and a lingering damp and cool feel to the air to start the week, but drier air moves in tonight and Tuesday, and June ends with a fairly nice day Tuesday. However, clouds will return quickly later in the day ahead of an approaching warm front which may bring a few areas of very light rain to the region by night. A cold front will follow on Wednesday, bringing a decent shot at showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong – something to watch. After the potentially stormy start to July, better weather should take over for the following few days, heading into the July 4 weekend, though a front may get closer by later in the weekend to increase the chance of a shower or thunderstorm again.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of drizzle and isolated showers this morning. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 53-60, coolest interior valleys. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny into afternoon then increasing clouds later. Highs 75-82 but turning cooler in coastal areas during the afternoon. Wind light variable through midday then SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 60-67. Highs 75-82.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-67. Highs 78-85.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 58-65. Highs 75-82.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)…
Weaker version of trough Great Lakes and Upper Midwest and high pressure off the East Coast, not too strong but there. Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal though still a few episodes of locally heavy showers/thunderstorms possible.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)…
A continuation of the pattern from the 6-10 day period is expected.

59 thoughts on “Monday Forecast Update”

  3. Thanks TK !

    On Wednesday …… Paris, France has a forecasted high of 103F, “avg” high is 73F. This is followed by forecasted highs of 102F and 99F on July 2nd and 4th.

    Paris is at 48N Latitude (northernmost VT is at around 45N)

    Even London has a forecasted high of 93F for Wednesday, July 1st ….

  8. Yesterday records were set at Logan (6/28):

    Record low temp = 52F (tied 1970, 1918)
    Record rainfall = 1.43″
    Current rainfall deficit = -3.15″

  9. I debated about whether or not to wear a light jacket early this morning. I decided not to but the fact I had to think about, on June 29th is just crazy

    1. I didn’t take a light jacket either. For that matter didn’t while out yesterday.
      It’s Summer, I REFUSE!

  11. Thank tk 🙂

    Another side note, and another city population facts, Oklahoma City will pass boston in population in Jan 2016 with an estimated population of around 700K, by 2020 ok will have close too 750K, #25 Boston currently has 641k, and even though boston grows, and will have an estimated 675k in 2020, the city will fall too #28 or #29 in America, this is no shots to anybody as I love boston, just hate how all these small cities have more people. Why is this happening?

    I think we have some thunderstorms wed Thursday 🙂

    2. Good observation, Charlie. Huge population shifts since 1980, including enormous numbers of immigrants, particularly from South and Central America. These shifts together with industry relocations have made small cities like Oklahoma City much larger over the past 35 years. Massachusetts, on the other hand, has not experienced the same magnitude of immigration (though there have been new waves of immigrants since 1980) or industry relocations (these occurred in the 1950s when most of the textiles left New England and the industrial base disappeared more or less, replaced by technology-based industries and service sector). Most of New England is relatively stagnant as far as population growth is concerned.

      Europe looks like it will experience a 2003-like heat wave, which means serious trouble. I don’t think anyone really wants over 100F in places where air-conditioning is still a relatively rare item. The 2003 heat wave killed thousands in France alone (mostly elderly). This heat wave has that potential as well.

      If one looks at the earth’s temperature profiles and anomalies, we’ve been in one of the few `cold’ zones that extends from here to northeastern Canada, but also includes a zone around Iceland. Most of the earth has been quite warm. For all intents and purposes there was no winter in many parts of Europe, and the spring has featured temperatures above normal with a heat wave coming that will shatter records across the European continent.

      1. One of my good friends is leaving tomorrow for Europe for 2 weeks. First time there. I told him its gonna be around 100 degrees on the first leg of their trip in Paris. Travel agency told him to expect 70’s, LOL

    3. How is it happening? Smaller cities have fewer people because they are smaller? Just a wild guess.

      1. Oh scratch that…re-read your comment and should have put it together. Small cities and more population sends of some worrisome signals to me. I have no idea what your population figures mean. Oklahoma City schools for example have been having a lot of overpopulation problems. Their prisons are overcrowded and understaffed.

        Still taking Boston.

        1. Boston’s ideal in many ways. Healthy mix of populations. Generally affluent, which means a good tax base. Health care, technology, and education driven, and all three aren’t going away anytime soon. Boston doesn’t have much land space, so it can’t expand. Climate is not extreme (some would beg to differ, I know) and region is not prone to cataclysmic events (tornadoes, earthquakes). We have issues for sure, but Boston ranks right up there with the world’s top cities in terms of livability.

          1. I’m not trying say Charlie’s #’s are incorrect but I would like to see where your numbers and predictions are coming from. According to Wikipedia OKC’s pop in 2014 was estimated to be around 620K up from 579k in 2010 so you may well be right given the rise from 2010 to 2014. Here are a couple of other factors. OKC’s total land area (the city..not even the metro area) is 607 square miles while Boston’s is around 41 square. See the difference. Not much room to grow in Boston. Population per sq mile is 13 to 1 Boston to OKC. Also Boston’s metro area population dwarf’s OKC’s (Boston is 4.6 million ranked #10 while OKC’s is 1.4 million ranked #42). You are not comparing apples to apples when you talk about growth and size, etc.

            1. When I listed the population per sq mile I listed it as a ratio. The actual numbers are 13000 and change per sq mile for Boston while OKC is 1000 per sq mile

              1. Agree with your points. My point was to echo what Charlie was saying about the growth of many once small cities. Atlanta was quite small population-wise 60 years ago. It’s large now. Charlotte was relatively small in 1970 and is quite large now. Across the south, southeast, and southwest we see lots of evidence of this kind of growth in what were once smaller cities.

                1. Charlotte sure did grow. And the growing pains are palpable. Mac has a lot of family there and they are not happy with it. I don’t compare because I like where I am but understand other people like different things and that is how it should be. Good thing we don’t all like the same areas to live or the world might tip from everyone being in one place. 🙂

  12. 15Z SREF finally coming out. We’ll see IF there are any changes of note or more of
    the same.

    Also of note: CMC for Wednesday as instability ONLY in Western sections, so
    there is NOT total agreement with the models.

      1. But I will say this. This make 3 consecutive runs with something on it, albeit very very low risk, but not non-zero.

  13. It will be interesting if more of SNE is put in a risk area by the SPC tomorrow. So far the far western areas are under a marginal risk for Wednesday.

  14. Thanks, TK.

    It has been mostly cloudy all day but sometimes it gets very dark, like it’s going to rain. But it’s cool out – doesn’t feel like late June. But that’s ok – let the HHH come in July, for a few days, so it can be summer for awhile. I wouldn’t want to see any lengthy heat waves this summer. I like the heat in the summer for awhile – but the refreshing, cooler air that comes in once in awhile is nice. As long as it is sunny – not rainy and cool! Save that for the fall! I know – Mother Nature will do what she wants.

    1. We noticed the sky was really really dark over your way just a bit ago. It has been a more than interesting cloud day

      1. I know. I kept looking at the radar and there were just some light showers to the west. Now the sun just came out. Lots of blue sky to the west.

  15. A few evening thoughts…

    Not a bad day overall today after the damp start. Of course if you like heat, it’s not your kind of pattern … yet.

    Warm front / cold front combo Tuesday night & Wednesday. Timing is key. I also think the warm front will be more active than the cold front and the most widespread activity will be Wednesday mid morning to early afternoon. By later in the day probably just a few isolated showers/storms with the best support being from about Concord NH northward.

    Maybe a stray shower or storm Thursday. Friday looks great. Weekend looks great. Tweaking forecast for next issuance.

    Interesting that the 18z GFS is a little more excited about more extensive ridging in the central and east central US. We’ll see if that is a trend on that model which has been all about the troughs lately.

  16. i am still waiting for the 80s to be the norm, it seems that the 60s and 70s been the norm which stinks. It seems like its descent when im at work but when im at home its 60s or 70s 🙁

  17. Gorgeous weather late this afternoon. I know it’s not everyone’s cup of tea, but I absolutely love this kind of summer weather, which is rare around these parts.

    The heat that’s coming to parts of Europe is deadly. Make no mistake, extreme heat can kill a lot of vulnerable people if ill-prepared. Most of Europe is relatively ill-prepared for extreme heat. It should be noted that in India – a country accustomed to heat – several thousand people died recently in a heatwave. I predict that a similar scenario may play out in Europe. The Dutch have issued a “weather alarm emergency,” with the forecasters telling people not to be outdoors during the peak sun and heat hours, to ensure they drink enough water, and to check on elderly neighbors. I checked the French news site and did not see a similar weather warning, which surprised me given the calamity of the summer of 2003. I was in France at the time for a conference.

      1. 3Z SREF has REMOVED the risk of tornadic activity altogether.
        Interesting how it had it 4 or 5 consecutive runs and then poof
        it’s gone, but hey, that’s a Good thing. Will watch to see if
        it returns.

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