For the moment I’m going to lean toward the lower side of my totals, that is, closer to 10 versus 16. Snow has come in earlier than expected, but I’m also observing trends that make me a bit nervous. Temperatures right along the coast from Cape Cod all the way up through Boston to Gloucester as of 1am are 36 to 40 with winds straight out of the east. This is being fueled by the relatively mild ocean water. No doubt later in the storm as the low pressure area wraps up, colder air will push back into these areas, but this boundary that seems to be setting up in that area (a coastal front) may limit snow totals near and just east of it.

For the most part the forecast I made is still something I’m comfortable with, but watch these areas near the coast early in the storm for wetter snow and less accumulation. One thing we really have to watch for is that sometimes the low pressure areas can try to track along these coastal fronts, and this could result in a slightly more westward shift to the track. That may allow a dry slot to work in from the south and southeast, and could shut down the snow earlier than expected. Another thing to watch for that could limit totals.

145am Wednesday 1-12-2011