Drought Far From Over / Thursday Forecast Update

43 Comments

9:04AM

COMMENTARY…
And now we enter another long dry stretch with no significant rainfall in sight. The next 5 days will be dry with the possible exception of a touch of light rain from a passing disturbance early on July 4 around Cape Cod, if it even comes close enough, which right now I don’t believe it will. Beyond that as the center of high pressure shifts more offshore with time and starts to introduce some Summertime humidity to the Northeast, we’ll always start to run risk of at least pop up showers and thunderstorms, but these do not erase droughts, and despite a wetter than average June, we still run a long-term precipitation deficit through the region. The Drought Monitor report that comes out today will indeed show at the very least that much of the region is in Abnormally Dry long term conditions. We may see a reduction in the Moderate Drought coverage, but that will likely return again before too long.

DAYS 1-5…
Disturbances pass out south of New England only introducing some high cloudiness at times later today and tonight, and again Friday night into Saturday (rain may get close to the South Coast and Cape Cod Saturday morning but don’t think it will make it onshore). Otherwise high pressure is in control and get ready for a very enjoyable stretch of early Summer weather, including the holiday weekend! We may still see smoke high in the sky for a couple days from forest fires in western Canada.
TODAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds and possibly smoke aloft, most clouds southern MA and RI in the afternoon. Highs 70s South Coast/Cape Cod, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Clouds exit southeastern areas early with sun dominating but sun may still be filtered at times by smoke aloft. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 interior. Wind light variable with light sea breezes.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s.
SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Evening temps in 70s. Overnight lows in 60s.
SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)…
Weak jet stream overhead between low pressure in east central Canada and high pressure off the East Coast. We probably won’t make it through the entire stretch rain-free but showers and thunderstorms are likely to be somewhat limited, leading to overall below normal rainfall. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)…
Jet stream lifts a little to the north and the pattern shifts to one of near to above normal temperatures with continued near to below normal rainfall.

43 thoughts on “Drought Far From Over / Thursday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks, TK.

    Vicki – I liked your story about Ted Williams’ last game at Fenway.

    Keith – You’re right about Porcello. Let’s hope he’s like Lackey. Bad for a while when he couldn’t keep his pitches down, but good when it mattered. Lackey was an integral part of the 2013 Red Sox, but many (myself included) wanted him gone early in his fat contract.

    The Netherlands recorded the warmest night ever last night, and things will only get worse. It’s considered a “critical” situation throughout the country for some of the elderly. Almost all outdoor events during the daytime have been canceled. This heat wave should not be taken lightly.

    2. In another poleward blast of unusual heat, the northeast Siberian Coastline and into the southernmost nearby arctic ocean, the 850 mb temps are forecasted to hit 15 to 18C on July 4th under a strong 500mb ridge of high pressure.

    3. Every once in a while when the atmosphere has Summer blocking they get a “super ridge” over there and it can sit for long periods of time. We saw this in the 1990s a few times, though the ridge was centered a little further south.

  3. Thanks TK. The new drought monitor is out, and all of MA remains at least abnormally dry, although moderate drought was reduced significantly, now confined to only far southeast MA, the Cape, and the Islands. It’ll no doubt re-expand in the coming weeks though. It’s very likely most places see under an inch of rain next 10 days. Some may not see a drop.

    1. I tried to go for something that would remind people of watermelon but I’m not sure how successful that was. 😉

  7. A possible long term (mid July) watcher ……

    A tropical system in the far west Pacific, which may develop into a strong system and may get carried along that track that eventually takes an extra-tropical cyclone into southwest Alaska.

    Occasionally, if all that happens, sometimes it can assist in a pattern change in the US.

    Lots has to happen and I dont know what it would change or adjust the current pattern to.

    But, something to keep in mind/monitor for long range outlooks.

  8. MassBay – nice to know your son is in Holland. I lived in Utrecht (about 40 minutes from Amsterdam) for 5 years, and Amsterdam for 10. As you probably know, the Dutch are sun worshippers as they often don’t get a whole lot of sun. Hence, they’re not fans of small windows. Almost all windows are very large. This is fine when it’s the usual 65-73 in summer, but it’s not good when it’s blisteringly hot and sunny.

    1. He is in Delft. He loves it there. A three month stay.

      I spent a month in Holland in ’77. I loved the people there. Great history and art and architecture and they love their sports.

      1. Delft is a fine city/town. Several centuries ago it was the capital of Holland. It is home to one of the world’s best engineering and technology universities: TU Delft.

  11. Another shark attack of carolina coast…this time Isle of Palms which is just outside of Charleston and where we used to stay when there. Boy was about 15 feet out and needed stitches. Thank heavens it doesn’t seem to be worse.

    1. Get rid of the seals!!!!! So dumb, so sad a life has too be taken before we do this 🙁

  12. The drought is far from over? I dealing with a ton of red thread disease (it’s comes from too much rain or overwatering, and you couldn’t tell we r in any sorta drought by looking at the lawns. 🙂

      1. There’s red thread everywhere, even if you haven’t even watered, top, no heat or drought stress and it’s already July, it’s unusual 🙂

    2. Am an agricultural meteorologist, Charlie. Trust me, the top soil is fine right now due to the wetter June, but the long term dryness is still a factor. New Drought Monitor issued today proves it. And the topsoil will be bone dry in about 5 days. At least that will take care of red thread…except where people leave their sprinklers on too long. 😉

  13. I sure hope the 18z GFS was a hiccup for July 4th, or were going to have some unhappy New Englanders with the afternoon weather …….

    1. Disregard the run. It’s poisoned by convective feedback triggered by a bad upper level forecast triggered by some kind of data glitch (I’m betting) over the Ohio Valley. Tonight’s 00z will be back to looking like the 12z.

    2. You’d love that so you have another reason to trash Boston. Keep a close eye on what actually happens with that system. Hint: Apply meteorology, not “modelology”. 😛

  16. New post available. Don’t panic about Saturday. Not going to turn out as badly as “the models” say. 🙂

    Heading to Hampton Beach NH for the day. Come on up!

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