Friday Forecast Update

74 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5…
Here we are, right into the Holiday Weekend and the weather will be great today and Sunday, and not too bad Saturday. The thing with the holiday itself is that a wave of low pressure passing to the south of New England will toss a good deal of mid and high level moisture this way, so we’ll see a lot of cloudiness. Despite some of the computer models predicting a slug of rain Saturday afternoon and evening, there are 2 things to keep in mind: 1) The models’ timing is usually too slow, so the peak of this “moisture event” will be earlier. 2) There will be a tremendous amount of dry air in place at mid levels when this system makes its run at us, and a lot of that moisture will be “eaten up” or evaporate due to the dry air. This means that clouds may dominate but rain will not. I will introduce the risk of brief light rain to southern areas, but I do not expect this to be enough to cause significant problems. The feel of Summer will be in force by early in the week as the humidity starts to creep up.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60 interior valleys, 60-65 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of very light rain early through mid afternoon mainly southern MA, CT, and RI. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 60s. Wind light S.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)…
A very warm and humid day possible July 8 including a risk of showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather dominates the rest of the period with seasonable to warmer than normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)…
Temperatures near to slightly above normal. Rainfall below normal.

74 thoughts on “Friday Forecast Update”

  2. Thank you TK. JR said pretty much the same. Maybe just maybe a couple of showers

    Glad you enjoyed fireworks in lexington. We had talked about going but Thursday night has become an unplanned kids and grands here for dinner which of course we love also.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Happy 4th weekend to all. I had yesterday off as well for a 4-day weekend.

    Ace didn’t see it was your birthday, So I will echo the birthday wishes.
    You still haven’t caught up to me and I assure you, you don’t want to either.

    Heard fireworks last night sitting in my living room. Haven’t a clue from which town.

      1. Don’t shoot the messenger. Just sharing the graphic. 😀

        I really don’t know what it will do. I’d take what TK says
        over the NWS and all others for that matter.

  13. Thanks tk I’m not trashing Boston, it’s constructed criticism, the city falls behind and people r blind too it, why? Bc it inconveniences them, how selfish, that is all, thanks again for the update 🙂

    1. Perhaps you need to look up the definition of constructive criticism. You simply toss insults. Vast difference and on this weekend, in the city where it began, please stop.

  16. Too bad today or the 5th (Sunday) isn’t the 4th. It seems we haven’t had a totally rain-free July 4th the last few years and if the current forecast holds, this would be back-to-back gloomy (overcast) ones in a row if nothing else.

    1. That’s true, Philip. 2012 we had severe t-storms. 2013 was fine, I think. But last year not so good; again t-storms. And tomorrow looks like a mini nor’easter creeping closer. I think temps will be a bit cooler than I’ve seen in the forecast with an onshore wind. Not sure if Boston makes it out of the 60s tomorrow, but we’ll see.

  18. I remember last year we had a cook in on Fourth Of July. I can remember a lot of cook ins for Memorial Day and Labor Day but that was the first cook in on Fourth Of July I remember having.

    1. I was hoping you would say that. NAM supported your forecast.

      Now the difficult question: What is it about the NAM that gives you confidence
      that it is correct and NOT the GFS? Curious and thanks

      1. GFS notoriously too slow and too wet with open waves and weak lows in Summer.

  23. Beautiful day!!! Judging by models tk would you agree tomorrow looks rainy? I’m seeing .25- .40 of rain across the area. Thank you in advance 🙂

  26. No rain for us tomorrow. Zero. Save for perhaps trace amounts Cape/Islands, and perhaps with a band well NW of most of us. Dew points are in the low 50s. It’s a weak open wave passing well S of Nantucket. That is not a recipe for rainfall.

  27. Latest guidance suggests little or no rain north of a line from Providence to Plymouth. This said, it’ll be on the cool side and cloudy.

  28. All on track for tomorrow.
    Beach weather was perfect at Hampton.
    Cloudiness and light onshore flow will make things comfy around the Esplanade tomorrow. Having a cookout Sunday. Looks great. 🙂

    1. Thanks, TK. It’s been comfy pretty much all summer. Incredibly so. I haven’t use a fan once (and I don’t have AC).

    2. Tk out of loop on weathe as I’m in vacation mode. Is it going to rain tomorrow.

      1. Daughter and family were in Marshfield picking up a birthday cake at Veronica’s. They said it was a beautiful day.

              1. Ask her if she saw someone picking up a Halloween cake. Grandson decided he wanted a Halloween bday party which we are having a blast with.

      1. Love Rexahme. We usually head most Saturdays or Sundays from mid July through late September (as long as it stays relatively warm).

  29. Charlie you are just plain and simple an antagonist. No model shows that much precip area wise.

  30. John no rain tomorrow for most areas except over Charlie’s house and on the Cape and island.

    1. Thanks hadi. Didn’t see much tv today. Have a good 4th. Out in the yard in front of the fire pit very nice night.

  32. Euro was south and it’s been leading the way this summer so no major concerns about tomorrow imo.

  33. Was never concerned about tomorrow. I’m not sure why NWS or anybody increased rain chances just because models said so. There are errors these models make. If you know them, you can safely forecast ignoring the bad info. Part of meteorology is trying to make the correct decision and sometimes that means going against the computers. There is certainly risk in doing it because sometimes it can blow up in your face, but this time I think it works out in our favor for the holiday. Not a perfect sunny day, and there may be some very light rain near the South Coast for a while, but largely a dry day, and it will turn out to be a perfect evening for fireworks. May just need a light jacket to ward off a bit of a chill compared to some years. Even with that, still a very nice evening.

    Since I am leaving at 7:15AM for my front row seat on the “island” across from the fireworks barges on the Boston side, I’m going to update the blog early and the new post will already be there when you all wake up tomorrow.

    Have a safe and happy Independence Day!

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