Independence Day Update

146 Comments

1:35AM

DAYS 1-5…
Happy Birthday to the USA! Here in southern New England, we won’t have a bright sunny day, and we won’t be seeing any blazing heat, but we will experience fairly decent conditions. Clouds will be dominant as a disturbance passes south of the region, but dry air in place will make most of the approaching rainfall dry up, and only a little may fall south of the Mass Pike, mainly near the South Coast, for a time in the afternoon. Dry weather will have returned to any areas that saw rain by early at night. Looking great for fireworks displays! High pressure slides to the east of the region Sunday through Tuesday with mainly dry and fairly warm weather. By Wednesday, an approaching cold front may trigger showers and thunderstorms.
TODAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy. A little light rain south of the Mass Pike for a time in the afternoon, mainly near the South Coast. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 60-65. Wind light S.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 coast, 80s interior. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s, some 70s southern coastal areas.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s, some upper 70s south coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)…
Temperatures are expected to average slightly above normal with rainfall slightly below normal during the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)…
Little change expected with a near to above normal temperature pattern against a near to below normal precipitation regime.

146 thoughts on “Independence Day Update”

  3. On my way to Boston….

    If you are on my Facebook, look for lots of photos today and video at the end of the night. 🙂

  4. 6z GFS aggressive with instablity on Wed. Plenty of time to watch it but that looks to be our next thunderstorm threat.
    CAPE in the 1500 – 2500 range
    LIFT -4 to -6

  6. Thanks TK, Happy 4th all 🙂 🙂

    Looks like the weather will hold as expected, just cloudy.

  8. Thanks TK and happy 4th to all.

    Forecast going as expected with little or no rain region wide.

  10. Just read “The Schoolchildrens Blizzard” with grandson. It was about a teacher who saved children by taking them to her house. The teacher (Annie Freeman) was fact. The children’s names were not. I didn’t realize that in Nebraska it is still called the Schoolchildrens blizzard because so many children died on their way home from school. I’m planning to purchase the book “In All Its Fury”.

      1. Would have helped it I gave date. I believe the storm has been mentioned here just this last winter. january 12 1888. The day started unusually warm for Jan in Nebraska.

  11. Thank you TK and Happy 4th to all.

    http://www.conversationsforabetterworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Happy-4th-of-July-Greetings-Cards-4.gif

    http://www.newsiosity.com/sites/default/files/styles/flexslider_image/public/FourthJulyPets1_0.jpg?itok=TaqoEBUF

    http://www.newsiosity.com/sites/default/files/styles/flexslider_image/public/FourthJulyPets6.jpg?itok=7PKFxiNP

    http://www.newsiosity.com/sites/default/files/styles/flexslider_image/public/FourthJulyPets14.jpeg?itok=onBnTMfQ

    1. Nice OS. I thought the cat would be my favorite until I got to the hound dog and cracked up laughing

  13. As JJ indicated, some decent instability now showing for Wednesday.

    Here is the 6Z GFS for 18Z

    CAPE

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gfs_amer_qc_06/BE_BE_PN_108_0000.gif

    Lifted Index

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gfs_amer_qc_06/LI_PN_UU_VV_108_0000.gif

    CMC CAPE

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_qc_00/BE_BE_PN_114_0000.gif

    CMC Lifted Index

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_qc_00/LI_PN_UU_VV_114_0000.gif

    We shall see what the 12Z runs bring.

    1. Ought oh. That doesn’t sound good.

      Please share the concern. Instability is decent. How’s the shear?
      Is that the main concern? We are talking severe storms and NOT
      tornadic storms? Correct? Not close enough to event to see some of the indicators I use. GFS EHI not impressive, so that’s good.

      Thanks

      Hey, I thought you were headed into town. Are you there?
      Post a photo. 😀

      1. GFS shows unidirectional winds, surface to 500 MB, all mostly
        West. Another good thing. I don’t see much speed shear at all.
        Almost the same wind speed with height. What am I missing?

        1. From NWS this morning:

          SOME SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND HIGH K-VALUES…SO WILL
          CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TS…BUT GIVEN THE LACKING SHEAR…REMAIN
          SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS OF SEVERE CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

  17. Good night last night at Brant Rock Beach.

    Looking west ….. Rexhame, Humarock and other towns had excellent fireworks. Looking perhaps 20 yards downbeach (east), the local beach homeowners put on their own show. I didnt know which way to look. 🙂

    It was the incoming tide that decided what was the grand finale for the local beach homeowners display, as the waterline quickly made it to their setup around 9:45pm. But, by then, they had put on quite a show and were probably close to the end of their fireworks.

    It was pleasant with enough of a breeze to minimize the no see-ums.

    1. Tom,

      Have seen that show before. We have a friend who lives on Constitution
      near where you describe.

      Glad you enjoyed.

      Quiet 4th for us.

      I think a visit to Tony’s Clam Shop in Wollaston is in order later today. 😀

        1. Indeed. Best onion rings in the world! I wish I liked
          clams or any seafood for that matter, but I don’t.
          I get a big burger, onion rings and french fries. Don’t do it
          often so I don’t clog my arteries. 😀

  18. O.S. .. We are front row on the river across from the fireworks barges. Can only post photos to FB right now. Will put some up here later. 🙂

    As for Wed I just think a lot of energy will be in place and it will come down to timing.

    1. Which side of river? I presume Boston since you said your were coming to Boston. ENJOY! and thanks

      1. Boston side. Every year since 1990. This is my July 4 home (except July 5 1992 and July 3 2014). 🙂

        1. 😀 😀 😀

          Haven’t been down there in a long time.
          Too many people for my taste plus getting too old to stand
          around for hours.

          Sometimes we park the car on the Brookline Ave. Bridge over the turnpike near Fenway Park and enjoy the fireworks from there. Then we’re home in 5 minutes. no crowds. no fuss.

  19. TK – Regarding Wednesday, will the severe activity be “widespread” throughout SNE this time around? So far most areas have ended up being spared if not mostly dry especially in eastern sections. We haven’t even had widespread “run-of-the-mill” thunderstorm activity. I only heard my first and only rumble of thunder of the season so far last Monday morning.

    1. Come to think of it, that’s the only thunder I have heard as well.
      I can’t even remember what day it actually was, but it was the morning activity.

      TK sees something for Wednesday. All I see is conflicting information.
      NAM wants to give us “some” action on Tuesday.
      Now the 12Z GFS also wants to bring some action in on Tuesday as well.

      Did it simply speed up?

      Does bringing it in early preclude Severe? OR set the stage for severe
      the next day. So far I am not feeling it. Will continue to watch it evolve.
      We shall see.

      1. 12Z GFS has decent instability both Tuesday and Wednesday.
        It bubbles right back up on Wednesday.

        I wonder if stretching it over 2 days keeps the severe away?

  20. 74 here and smells like rain, but NO rain and sun is dimly shining through
    the overcast.

  21. I just need next Saturday dry as I’m having a 50th birthday party here outside for my wife

      1. No it’s not a surprise but she does not know who is coming. It’s a good mix of the girls she grew up with , friends from pembroke and family from both sides.

  23. Read a NWS discussion from the Albany office
    They indicated a pre-frontal trough for Tuesday’s convection
    and the actual front for Wednesday’s convection.

    We shall see.

  24. Well the Nations leading authority has chimed in for Wednesday’s Severe threat
    for our area, Dr. Gregg Forbes.

    Dr. Greg Forbes

    WEDNESDAY
    Scattered severe thunderstorms in MA, CT, RI, south NY, NJ. TORCON – 2 to 3. Scattered severe thunderstorms in east ND, southwest, central and east SD, west NE, northeast CO, west KS. TORCON – 2 to 3

    https://scontent-lga1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/14408_10152987688013201_4938151571545226642_n.jpg?oh=b8285171dd5f0cf518fb8d15c014cf49&oe=56338F57

    2. Wednesday ok. Tues not so much as I’m having a small surgical thing. Last time I had it, we had fairly robust t storms and I missed them….on my birthday no less 🙁

        1. Thanks OS and it does have its moments but on the scale of things it isn’t bad. Just a nuisance 🙂

      2. Good luck, Vicki. I’m having an eye exam on Tues. so if there is anything I won’t be able to watch the radar for a few hours. Oh, well!

        1. Thanks rainshine and You gotta love when they dilate your eyes. Made me cringe just thinking of,you trying to look at the radar

    3. btw, I am being somewhat factious when I call Gregg Forbs the Nations leading
      expert. I suppose that is up for debate. But he knows something and is not
      a complete idiot at the very least. 😀

  28. Thanks, TK – and enjoy!

    Hoping the weather won’t be too bad on Weds. as husband will be out in Worcester during the aft. But I have a feeling we will get some strong weather, ’cause w/the heat and humidity and some fronts around and TK and other mets. a little concerned – something usually happens. Maybe not in MA but somewhere in New England, I’m guessing.

    Everyone have a great and safe July 4th!

    1. Agree, OS. There’s plenty of (light) rain falling in Western and Central Mass. Also some rain falling (scattered) across the Cape and Islands. I don’t think it’ll impact Boston and vicinity much, but it’s getting darker in Boston, winds are onshore (ENE). We could get some light rain and/or drizzle by 4pm or so.

  30. Some sprinkles here in burriville Ri, looks and feels like rain, hopefully tk is correct 🙂

  31. The great dry out of that rain area will commence momentarily. Just very light stuff into Boston area before it’s all gone by evening.

      1. Is that a genuine unbiased forecast or a healthy dose of wishful
        thinking?

        We want to head down to Tony’s Clam Shop at Wollaston Beach
        and eat OUTSIDE. That is why I am virtually certain it WILL RAIN and plenty to wet the ground.

    1. Still rain here. Light to slightly moderate. All is wet but looks to be stopping soon as TK promised.

  37. OS I know I have asked and suspect you have answered but I missed it because I tend to forget to go back in blog. Do you get alerts with radar now? It says I can upgrade to get rid of ads for 4.99 but under it says weather alerts coming soon. I suspect that alerts and warning boxes are not the same

    And I thought of you. My sister in law just got radar now and she knows very little about tech and apps. I asked how she had heard of it and she said the flight attendants and pilots all use it

      1. And my personal opinion is that those alerts are mostly
        worthless. Too many alerts for non-alert situation.
        Then there is the issue of alerts for areas where no alert
        is warranted.
        Oh well this jaded ole geezer is at it again. Sorry.

        1. Hehe. I’ll stay with radarUS which I paid a pittance for years ago and use it with radar now then. Tx

  41. Low must have tracked a bit closer than forecast. The radar and light rain in the area suggest this. Also points north and west have gotten some light to moderate rain. Air also felt quite saturated and cool about an hour ago when I stepped outside.

    It’s not spoiler rain, but it’s certainly a bit gloomy and relatively cool outside.

    Buchholz is pitching well. But, the key game in this series was last night, in my opinion. The Sox made so many mental and coaching errors. Very winnable game, which they lost. Microcosm of this season.

    1. I was disappointed last night in who John Farrell put in to pitch the 10th inning. Perhaps he had no one else, but with the team playing better recently, I wonder if he should have tried Koji 1 more inning.

      Also, Shane Victorino back in the lineup today. Keep DeAza in their.

      Until recently, I had supported Farrell, but starting to wonder …..

      1. John Farrell is an IDIOT! Did I say IDIOT? I meant to say:
        IDIOT!(*@#(&!(@&#*&!*(@#&(*!&@#*&!*(@#&*!&*@#&*!&@*#&*!@#&!&*@#*(!&@#*&!*@&#

        He may have been a superior pitching coach, but he can’t manage
        his way out of a wet paper bag!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

  42. If you can wait a bit OS, I’d think the last of the light rain might be done at Wollaston by 5:30 ….. 6 pm tops.

  44. Tom, I agree with you. I’m not a critic of Farrell’s, generally. I don’t think managers can do a whole lot in baseball to impact the outcome of a game. But, they do matter in about 10-20 games, I think. And last night, Farrell blew it. You don’t throw a Triple-A pitcher to the wolves in a tie game in the 10th. The Astros can hit, but were not hitting Koji. Farrell’s explanation leaves a lot to be desired: “I’m not leaving Koji in for more than 1 inning in a tie game.” What? That had me scratching my head. Koji hadn’t pitched since Wednesday, only threw 11 pitches. If you keep the score tied in the 10th at home you’ve got a reasonable chance of winning. And, I do think last night’s game was important. Not a must-win, but important to keep the momentum going. I also question Farrell’s loyalty to players like Napoli, who are hurting the team badly.

    1. you mean CRAPOLI!

      And what about DICKTORINO?

      Crap masters, the 2 of them! FIRE the MANAGER now before it is too late!!!!

      1. Exactly! Oh wait, stupid FO gave him an extension instead! Those nicknames are amazing though!

    1. Well that wasn’t nice. I had mine all set up for here and the link
      brought it back to the original. Oh well.

    1. — Mike Napoli went 0-for-4 with a strikeout. He’s now hitless in his last nine at-bats. Overall, he’s two for his last 27.

  47. Rain looks to have just about quit.
    Looks dry at Wollaston. We’re not leaving here until about 6PM.

    DQ after Tony’s. Yum yum yum

  48. Never enough rain to wet the ground fully at the Esplanade. Just damp pavement. Winding down now. Blue sky to W.

    1. Good call TK. Have to admit, it looked dicey for a bit. Drying up here.
      Clearing can be seen to the West. 😀

  49. Awesome game. Rained a little bit but nothing major. Exactly as I anticipated. Can see the sky starting to clear.

    1. Glad they had fun, now you have too bring them too the big sports team, you know who that is 🙂 it will begin too dominate in about a month 🙂 happy 4th!!

      1. We will probably go to the Skins vs. Pats on Nov 8th. But I will tell you charlie nothing is as good as Fenway for Kids. They got a goodies bag for their first game plus the fans are much more polite than a football game.

        1. And Hadi there is no park with the history that Fenway holds. So glad you had a nice day and great time.

            1. well at least you are consistent. If you ever said anything positive about Boston, it’d far too much of a shock

    1. Awesome Hadi! Happy they took in a win.
      Are they old enough to know how special Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts
      are???

      1. Tariq probably will remember but Samir no way. Nonetheless they were free Club Pavilion Seats.

  51. As of now no rain in pembroke. At neighbors for party nothing like walking out the door and arriving at destination. I think my spelling will improve here as my new iPhone 6 does it for me lol.

  55. I was on a lake in Salem NH this afternoon and it poured for some time…a few hours mixed with lighter showers.

  56. Spectacular boston fourth show so far. From 2 to 66 and in between we have all loved it. And there is more to come

  57. Saw the Kansas City fireworks on TV, they were the biggest firework display in country 🙂

  58. What do Marshfield, Plymouth, Taunton and New Bedford all have in common …..

    They are all in the 50s and are all cooler than …… Barrow, AK …. which is currently 62F.

      1. Sure was ….

        Here’s another well above average arctic temperature …

        Alert, Canada at 82N Latitude (82 !!!!) is currently 59.7F per environment canada and 58F according to weather underground.

  59. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Approximately how many minutes do the tides change in a 24 hour cycle?

    A. 40 minutes
    B. 50 minutes
    C. 70 minutes
    D. 120 minutes

    Answer later today.

    2. Huh What? Another Dumb-Ass worded question from InAccuWeather.
      What the hell is that supposed to mean? There are generally 2 high tides
      and 2 low tides per day, plus 2 Slack tides.

      Given the utter stupidness of the question, I’ll take a guess at ‘A’ meaning
      that each “change” lasts several minutes. But that is a pure guess based
      on a non-sense question.

    4. I say A; as they shift (very approximately) 20 minutes later on each tide?

      But I also say F for poor word choice and lack of clarity.

  60. We did make it to Tony’s and the food was great as usual. Then DQ.

    When home, we decided to just watch the show on channel 4. When the fire works
    went off, we turned down the volume and listened. Strange with the slight video delay,
    we could hear the booms pretty much as they went off on the screen. Pretty interesting.

    Who bleep is Michael Cavanaugh? I must say he thought he was King S**T! Really full of himself and he sucked!! Mrs. OS thought the same.

    Other than that the show was AWESOME!!

    I Thought that the Boston Crusaders uniforms were terrific as were they.

      1. Interesting. Thank you. I think Billy Joel has lost it. This guys sucks! He may play the piano well, but he can’t sing. Oh well to each his own.

        1. He almost ruined the show for me. But the others were terrific, especially Melissa Doolittle and the woman with the incredible operatic voice.

  61. So far not impressed with instability parameters for Wednesday. They were looking
    more ominous yesterday. We shall see.

    1. Oh sorry, I guess she just posted. There is a credit on the photo. I apologize.
      Still and awesome photo.

  63. Good morning all!

    Now my excuse for not updating yet should be that I was sleeping in but…
    1) I hate sleeping in.
    2) I was up early doing my normal Sunday morning stuff with Mom.
    3) I had to make an extra quick trip out to help someone (driving mom’s car) when I noticed a squeak in one of the belts like you get when you go through a puddle… except there were no puddles. Also noticed a bit of a scent of “coolant”, put 2 and 2 together, then after seeing the temp was “above normal” figured we had a leak going on and got home just in time to see the coolant level in the tank drop to zero and steam/smoke coming from the engine. Thankfully it was really just from the coolant that had leaked onto the belt. The engine did not actually overheat. There is a split either in the plastic tank or the outlet hose. Thankfully my mechanic is a 45-second drive down the street. So…I’ll put some water in there after it fully cools, drive it to his lot, and drop the keys off first thing in the morning. As an amusing little aside, I had a dream last night that this car broke down right after I said that it doesn’t give me that many issues. Yeah. Also, it hit 50,000 miles this morning, which is not a lot, except that the car is 15 years old. 😀 When my mom and dad got it, they didn’t drive very far with it, which is why it’s only at 50K now. There is a bright side to this: It could have happened when I was further away from home, but it was just close enough that I made it back… No big deal. 😀

    My day and night in Boston was FAN-FREAKING-TASTIC. What a birthday party! It’s so totally worth the effort to go there and the trip back. If you plan decently, it’s not that difficult. Blog was promoted a little bit with the people around me. I had some of the nicest neighbors I’ve ever had in the 26 years of going there. They were pleased with the short-term forecast. 😉

    Anyway, going to update now. It will be a fairly quick and short update and I’ll plan a more comprehensive one to post tomorrow morning. 🙂

    Today is water fight and cookout day on Woods Hill, and one more P.S. fireworks display tonight in the town of Methuen to cap off my 5-day fireworks marathon. 😉

  64. To clarify what Charlie said about KC…
    The display was not larger than Boston’s.
    What KC did was launch the largest fireworks shell in the USA this year. It was a large-diameter shell that is quite popular in fireworks displays in Japan. They ended their show with it.

    1. Conde Nast lists the best fireworks in the country. Washington and NYC are only two listed befoes Boston and they are all considered closed. KC wasn’t even in top 10. Only FOX of every place I checked had KC mentioned. Need I say more …..

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