Sunday Forecast Update

62 Comments

11:25AM

COMMENTARY…
Good day all! A little interruption in the great weather for Independence Day yesterday reminding us again of the uncertainty of weather forecasting. Where I expected the rain to fall stayed the driest. Where I expected would stay the driest got the most rain, not that it was a soaker of a day all day long in those areas of interior MA north and west of Boston and southern NH, but it rained there enough to disgruntle some people with outdoor plans. However, if you were patient, or timed things correctly, you had a wonderful evening to enjoy! And that was true of all areas as drier air moved in behind the disturbance, proving that going into this situation, many of the computer models were incorrect on timing and had the activity taking place later than it actually did. And now, time to look ahead…

DAYS 1-5…
Beautiful Summer day today as high pressure dominates. This holds into Monday – another great day! By Tuesday, a warm front crosses the region with more cloudiness and the risk of a few showers, as well as an increase in humidity. This sets up Wednesday as a potential day for heavy to severe thunderstorms as a cold front pushes into a warm and muggy air mass. I’m not going to try to say we’re in for it here this far in advance, but only want to alert you a few days in advance of the possibility of some big boomers somewhere in the region at that time. By Thursday, we’re into a drier airmass though a disturbance nearby may still kick off a few showers.
THIS AFTERNOON: Sunshine. Highs in the 80s except 70s Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-60 interior valleys, 60-65 elsewhere. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 80s except 70s South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of brief periods of light rain. More humid. Lows 60-65. Highs 70s South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Lows 65-70. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Lows 60-65. Highs 75-83.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)…
Great Summer weather Friday July 10 and Saturday July 11 with fair and warm conditions. Episodic showers/thunderstorms becoming more likely July 12-14 as a trough moves through the Northeast. Still no heatwaves in sight with temperatures close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)…
Flat ridge of high pressure from the South Central US through the Southeast and off into the Atlantic, still not far enough north to promote big heat in the Northeast, but jet stream far enough north to allow for near to above normal temperatures. Disturbances coming along the jet stream may produce occasional showers/t-storms typical of Summertime but overall rainfall will be near to below normal.

62 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast Update”

    1. Double post? I can delete one of them. Will keep an eye out. Looks good so far…

      1. Tk, NWS keeps mentioning lack of shear.
        Do expect it to develop before/during convection?
        Do you expect possible severe without Shear?
        Curious to know/learn.
        Don’t we need shear for Severe?

        Oh one more thing, they mentioned something about a
        STRONG veering wind profile, but said no Speed shear.

        What’s up?

        Many thanks

        1. We could see an instance where the best sheer is not lined up with the convection.

          Directional sheer without a lot of speed sheer would promote isolated super cells.

          Speed sheer is more likely to lead to a squall line.

          I hate to go into detail this early but I could see it turning out like this:

          Multicell storm clusters, a couple of which evolve into super cells, possibly splitting super cells in which the right-moving member of the pair would be the potential tornado producer.

          Later, an outflow boundary could allow a line to form, but this line may be slow-moving, if it forms, due to relatively slow movement with the front itself.

          Of course many things can change between now and then but that’s how I can see it looking from this far out.

    1. People will say “see? this is why fireworks should be illegal everywhere!” and they may have plenty of arguments to support that, but this one? Illegal or legal, dummies like that would still get them and use them. I hate to sound unsympathetic but can anyone really be that stupid? I guess so. We’re not talking about a bottle rocket out of your hand. A tube-launched shell off your head? Those things are one step below what you see in professional shows. There are better ways to “use your head”………….

      1. Complete moron in my opinion and a night out drinking and stupidity cost this young man his life. I am willing to bet he would not have done that sober, and some friends letting him do this. I have no problem at all with fireworks but please do them responsibility so you or an innocent person does not get injured or killed. Just completely stupid what this kid did.

  7. With still no HHH for the foreseeable future, it will be interesting if it arrives in earnest later this month into most of August like in 2009 after a very chilly start.

    Still no 90 for Logan…fine with me. Thanks TK! 😀

    1. I believe the very latest date is August 6. I forget the year but it was a long time ago.

  11. If it doesn’t hit 90 today, we tie for Number 10.
    If it doesn’t hit 90 on or before July 14 (next Tuesday), we tie for Number 4.
    You’re right, Philip: Latest date to hit 90 is August 6, 1906.

  12. Repost

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Approximately how many minutes do the tides change in a 24 hour cycle?

    (Many have pointed to this as being badly worded and I agree. I believe what this means is best described by an example. If there were a high tide at 12 noon today, how many minutes later would that same high tide occur tomorrow?)

    A. 40 minutes
    B. 50 minutes
    C. 70 minutes
    D. 120 minutes

    Answer later today.

    3. That’s how I took it. And I went against my better judgement and said B. My better judgement said I should have stuck with Tom

      1. Ah ha. Maybe I’m not wrong. Not that I knew the answer, But I thought the question made sense…..must be a female thing or perhaps a literal thing.

  13. OOPS I neglected to copy the quiz over to here. Sorry about that! A little out of it from yesterday…

  14. 12z GFS For Wed.
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=084&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=078
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  15. Seeing a little more agreement in medium range guidance for West Coast trough and ridge in the East toward the middle of July… Will follow this.

      1. it means that we would get a better chance of the summer time heat from the south coming up with the cooler air going into the northwest. Flip flop of what it has been. Would allow for the southeast ridge or bermuda high to take charge

  16. Has anyone travelled to Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island? I am looking for input on:

    1) What’s the weather generally like in early August?
    2) What are your recommendations for places to go / see?

    Thanking you in advance,
    Longshot

    1. Nova Scotia in August. Weather was cooler than today by a bit. We had a huge storm the night we arrived but that was it. A bit buggy. Tom will have far better input but we thought it was a perfect time of year

    2. Hi Longshot ….

      1) Weather in early August …….

      Most days around 80F (will report as 25-27 C up there) and nights cool off to around 60F (15C). Because its surrounded by water, it tends to be humid, but not oppressively.

      That captures a majority of the weather, but, I’ve seen a few cool blasts of air where it struggled to get to 70F by day. I’ve also seen it hot and humid by day up there, but even in a very warm pattern, the nights cool off.

      And just be aware of the tropics because they do get some good wind and rain storms from many of the systems that miss or hit us.

      2) if your driving, once you get into New Brunswick, there’s the Fundy shore. The scenery is amazing, the tides are jaw dropping and the small coastal towns are stunning. St. Andrews, St. Martin are a couple of nice towns. The Fundy shore can be pricey, but what you get back in return is worth it.

      As you cross New Brunswick into Nova Scotia, consider stopping at the Nova Scotia welcome center. Beautiful views, but also ….. can gather lots of information about Nova Scotia and PEI.

      There’s the sunrise trail on the north side of Nova Scotia paralleling the Northumberland Straight. All of PEI is awesome from the beaches to the center part of the island where it feels like you are driving in Iowa.

      Its all good, you cant go wrong. If you like it, recommend a hot turkey sandwich at any restaurant and again, if your interested, look for a restaurant that plays fiddle music during the evening.

      Oh, I’m envious. We arent going this summer, but I’m already begging my wife to go back next year.

      Hope a trip works out, enjoy ! And, I think with the dollar having strengthened, you might be getting a $1.20 to $1.25 Canadian for each US dollar.

  17. Great beach day with a nice seabreeze helping to push that warmer surface water closer to the shore.

    Go USA women’s soccer team ! Game starts at 7pm.

  18. From the Weather Channel and Dr. Forbes

    Dr. Greg Forbes
    Page Liked · 11 mins ·

    WED
    Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms in south ME, south NH, south NY, east MA, CT, RI, NJ. TORCON – 2 to 3. A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in central IL. TORCON – less than 2. A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in east NM, west TX panhandle and southwest TX, west OK panhandle, east CO. TORCON – 2 or less

    https://scontent-lga1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xaf1/v/t1.0-9/11666108_10152990602723201_3154149874676749750_n.jpg?oh=237957235a6874e30d9954a6b71b4756&oe=56127809

  19. Just came back from Fishing. Mrs. OS came with me and looked like a Pro.
    She only caught a couple of sunnies. She had a good fish (probably a large mouth) that
    took her into a submerged snag. no fish, but hook and line recovered.

    I managed to nab a nice large mouth and a rather large yellow perch.

    Nice and peaceful.

  20. I believe a tor con in that 2 to 3 range means there is a low chance of a tornado. One of those situations where its low but not zero.

    1. TOR:CON Value Descriptions
      8+ Very high probability of a tornado
      6 – High probability of a tornado
      4 – Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
      2 – Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
      0 – Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

      The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your percentage chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there’s a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.

      2-3 means a 20 to 30% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location.

      For SNE, that is pretty high in my opinion.

      1. Sure seems to be quite frequent that we are hearing the word tornado. I know rhe ability to predict is enhanced but we are seeing the tornados…even though they are weak….more than I recall.

        1. Yes, I would agree with you.

          It may just mean that we have better tools, so now we
          see the more marginal situations that may have e
          been overlooked in the past. Then again, it could just be Mother Nature and we are seeing these conditions more
          frequently now than in the past.

          Who knows for sure.

          1. I agree. I think the tools are definitely Better. But haven’t mets always been able to tell if it is a tornado once it has hit?

  21. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Approximately how many minutes do the tides change in a 24 hour cycle?

    A. 40 minutes
    B. 50 minutes
    C. 70 minutes
    D. 120 minutes

    The answer is B.

    2. Thank you LongShot and I do hope you understand that when I complain
      about how a question is worded, it has nothing to do with you. You simply
      posted it from elsewhere. It’s those elsewhere boobs!!!

  23. Good morning.

    I still am getting conflicting information regarding thunderstorm potential.
    There seems to be a timing issue for the main instability on Wednesday.
    NAM most aggressive and robust with timing for severe. GFS and CMC
    take front through too early in the day.

    SREF doesn’t show much in the way of tornado potential at this time.

    6Z NAM

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=066

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=00&stn=LI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=00&mod2=nam&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=00&stn=LI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=00&mod2=nam&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  24. From the NWS re: Wednesday

    SFC CAPEVALUES COULD REACH OR EXCEED 1500J/KG PARTICULARLY IF DWPTS REACHTHE LOW 70S IN SPOTS AS POTENTIAL FORECAST. IN ANY CASE…THUNDERIS LIKELY ASSUMING LIFTING OF THE EARLY DAY LOW CLOUDS…WITHHEAVY RAIN THE MOST LIKELY THREAT…SVR THREAT IS LOW GIVEN THELACKING SHEAR/ENHANCED LAPSE RATES…BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVERTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY ANYCLOUDS CLEAR…IF THEY DO…SOME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90ARE POSSIBLE AS H85 TEMPS APPROACH +17C.

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