Tuesday Forecast Update

95 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5…
Warm front today / cold front Wednesday – still on the agenda. Timing of Wednesday’s cold front remains key to any potential for stronger or possibly severe storms. It looks like a slower-moving front taking its time getting through during the afternoon, so storms can fire along the boundary and be moderate to strong. There is an outside risk of a couple severe storms favoring eastern and southern MA down into RI. Thursday’s forecast is a little more uncertain as the front will be very close to the South Coast and a disturbance coming along will likely enhance cloudiness and the shower threat at some point. Better weather is still expected to return Friday and Saturday.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of passing showers. Humid. Highs 70s South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely by midday especially west of Boston and in the afternoon favoring eastern and southern MA through RI. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W during the afternoon.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-65. Highs 75-83.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Highs 78-85.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-65. Highs 80-87.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)…
Summery Sunday July 12 but thunderstorms possible by late day. A shower and thunderstorm threat and cooling down July 13-14 as a trough moves through. Improving weather and warming up July 15-16.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)…
Temperatures near to above normal and rainfall near to below normal during this period. Pattern may be readjusting to more ridging in the eastern US and will watch for this possibility.

95 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast Update”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK for the update.

    Waiting on Model updates, the 9Z SREF and all of the 12Z runs.

    Getting interesting again for tomorrow.

  2. TK thanks for your answer earlier re: tornado threat.
    For those that did not see, I asked TK about his thoughts on any possible
    tornado threat for tomorrow. He said it was there, but a little less than last time.

    To that point, here is last night’s 0Z Vorticity Generation Potential index

    http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/prod/rt/wrf/wrf20/2015070700/vgp.hr42.png

    Notice that little blob of .3 in Eastern MA. That is on the lower side, but clearly
    NOT non-zero. Also, the literature states that tornadoes are “possible” when this
    index is above .2. If my Math is correct, .3 is above .2.

    Of course the higher that index, the more the threat, but there is something there.

    Will be able to get the 12Z numbers sometime around Noon. I will be tied up from NOON to 2PM, so I’ll post at 2PM if not available before Noon.

    Get your glasses cleaned and be ready to be glued to the radar screens tomorrow. 😀

  3. Thanks TK !

    I see you’ve highlighted it already, that July 13-14 shower/ thunderstorm threat has been interesting on the models the last day or two. …… Decent low pressure for the heart of summer in the vicinity of central New England.

    I’m sure it will change in some sort of manner.

    1. That position allows for a good deal of helicity in the region.
      “Could” we be looking at tornado possibilities yet again? Good Grief!
      It’s way too early at this point, but just the thought is intriguing.

  5. Thanks TK.
    It started out slow with thunderstorms this season but looks like we got our third watcher in as many weeks. From what TK
    said there maybe another for next week.

  6. SPC has no area of the U.S. in any risk at all for severe weather tomorrow. Will see if that changes when the update comes in around 1:30pm.

    1. SPC is always pretty conservative.
      They don’t have a chicken little mentality when it comes to severe weather.
      I think they generally do a fine job.

  7. For today from NWS out of Taunton.
    BIGGEST QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS IF WE WILL GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE
    TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE AROUND2000
    J/KG OF MU CAPE WHILE THE EC IS LESS…CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. THE
    SHEAR IS ALSO NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH AROUND 20-30 KTS OF SHEAR.
    HOWEVER PWATS ARE STILL HIGH SO IF ANY THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP
    THIS AFTERNOON…THEN ANTICIPATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALL THE HI-RES
    GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SEEING THE
    GREATEST RISK. EVEN WITH MARGINAL…SHEAR AND INSTABILITY…STILL
    CANT RULE A VERY WEAK SPIN-UP WITHIN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS. BEST
    CHANCE IS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WHERE WINDS COULD BACK AND HELICITY
    IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 100.

    1. This is for today. Very interesting.

      I don’t see much happening today, especially in Eastern Sections. Perhaps
      some convection in Western sections.

      The warm front has basically washed out. Officially they say a weak
      warm front will push through. Big Woof. Dew points will charge upwards
      from the already 66-68 across the area to what? 70-72. The soup is already here!!! SO the lift is NOT coming from the warm front, it is coming from
      a weak short wave and it is passing more to the West.

      Tomorrow is ACTION DAY around these parts. We shall see.

  8. That is for today Old Salty.
    If you look at 6z NAM EHI values that would support that idea from the discussion.
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    6z GFS less aggressive with EHI values
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  9. 9Z SREF is in. Nothing overly impressive.

    There is ample CAPE and Lifted Index tomorrow for decent thunder storms.
    Not too much shear, like 20-30 knots. Not too much helicity.
    Signifcant tornado ingredients and Tornado parameters are non-existent.

    Heavy rain and possible flooding is likely the major threat.

  10. HMMM, interesting.

    Now the 12Z NAM wants to deliver the convection tomorrow
    between 15 and 16Z which is between 11AM and NOON.

    And then it is out of here.

    Once again conflicting information.

    Let’s see what the GFS and the CMC have to say about timing of convection.

  11. Wow it’s muggy out there!
    Of course this is a crisp comfy day compared to a normal day in TEXAS.

    😛

      1. BTW, my opinion of Texas…IT SUCKS!!!!
        The people we met were really nice, but the landscape…
        YUCK! The Trinity River was green it was so filthy! Disgusting.
        In comparison the Charles River is pristine.

    2. I don’t know about that. I was in Texas 2 years ago (Ft. Worth, same evening as the Moore, OK tornado) in the middle of a large tornado watch the next day. Big Woof. NOTHING! A sub-garden variety thunderstorm was it. Next day was absolutely Goregeous. Here, today, is Tropical Soup compared to that fantastic Texas day! 😀 😀 :green: 😉 😆

        1. 11AM Wind at Logan from the EAST dewpoint 70.
          Blue Hill wind from 170 Degrees, Dewpoint 71
          Norwood wind from 190 Degrees, Dewpoint 72

          1. Those are some nasty DP. I think I read that up in the UPI area temps should go down into the 30’s at night.

  15. Muggy is an understatement. It’s gross outside. We’ve been blessed with a gross-free summer so far, but today feels awful. It may be me, but I feel nauseous in weather like this. It upsets my GI tract. I’m wondering if others get that, too.

    1. Agree Joshua. I can tolerate it, but I don’t like it.
      I was just out and about in Copley Sqaure and it is truly miserable out there!
      It totally disables my wife. She can’t breathe in this shit and it makes
      her very ill. DISGUSTING!@#(!@()#&*!()*@#(*!()@#*()!*@#()*!(@*

    2. I have had such good luck sorting out some nagging health issues via diet. I wonder if you might be able to get at the humidity nausea that way.

    3. Joshua, I’m sorry to hear that. I suspect you have tried it but in case, mac takes ginger pills for chemo nausea. I tried it for kidney stone nausea and it works far better than the prescription pills. It sadly won’t help,how the humidity makes you feel but may settle your system. I get the capsules.

      It seems heat bothers folks as much or maybe more than cold. I hope you feel better. Mrs OS as well, OS

      1. Thank you Vickie.
        She fared pretty well today thanks to us really cooling off the house last night. ALL is wide open now soaking up this nice
        breeze.

      2. I inhale ginger beer in this weather. Reed’s is awesome.
        But that said, while I do not like the humidity, I have never had trouble with nausea due to it, unless there was sunstroke involved. I simply do not like humidity and prefer temps in the mid-70s and below.
        I hesitate to share diet info as what works for me might not for someone else. I started my little diet journey on the South Beach years ago, and then left that behind migrated to the “clean diet” where you eliminate acidic foods and those likely to cause allergic reaction. You can then figure out which foods are ok for you by slowly working some back in your diet.
        But this stuff is so individual. I started by trying things that worked for family and or friends and I experimented a bit.
        Perhaps that story might be helpful to someone.

    4. I get a really bad tummy when we have HHH weather and also when it’s plain hot.

  17. Had downpour couple hours ago. Its just as muggy as before now with the sun out.
    No risk area here in SNE from the SPC for tomorrow.

    1. Nope. Parameters just are not showing on the models at this time.
      Doesn’t mean we don’t get a sneaky severe storm. We shall see.
      With this soup and the lift provided by the front, who knows. Still needs
      to be watched.

  20. I have a good diet but I agree with Joshua this humidity makes me ill. It makes me exhausted as well even not doing anything.

    Car temp is 90 and DP is 73. That is plain and simple ugly.

      1. Well I’ll be darned, Charlie. I think we found something you like about Boston. This is the weather you find every summer day in your favorite locations around the country rather than just occasionally here.

  21. This won’t be a popular comment, but I love it outside today. 🙂

    We got a brief moderate shower near Reading center at about noon. Everything else to the east has since died out and things are lined up to the west and will not make it this far east this evening. Just a warm and muggy night ahead.

    Still working on how things unfold tomorrow. Will have more comments on that later. I’m going for a walk this evening. 🙂

    2. Comment doesn’t bother me. I wouldn’t mind a walk, but wouldn’t
      want to run in this (Not that I would ever run anyway!)
      I like to fish in this weather, especially in the evening. Bass go nuts in this
      weather!

      The heat/humidity combo bothers everyone differently.

      I generally tolerate it very well, although it bothers me somewhat more now than when I was younger. However, it totally annihilates my wife. She just can’t deal with it at all. She has trouble breathing as well as getting sick.

      I spoke to her around 2PM and she was still OK because we had the house open all night and then shut it down this morning with all shades down.
      She doesn’t want me to install and AC just yet. We’ll see when I get home.

    3. Popular with me. I also love it as it is summer, summer, summer. If I have a few days with not as much energy, I figure it is mother natures way of getting me to slow down

    4. I agree with you Tk I love it. It’s so short and I welcome the hotter the better. Looking good for Saturday

  22. You like every kind of weather TK 😛

    I don’t like HHH, but didn’t think today was too bad. Enough clouds and a nice breeze to keep it manageable. The pop-up showers were fun to watch too.

    1. Yes, TK likes all kinds of weather. I am somewhat surprised that he doesn’t have at least one specific favorite type. I suspect most people do. 😉

      I myself like summer temps in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s or lower.

  24. Some of these local stations really need to get rid of the lightning graphic that plots the location of the lightning strikes with an icon larger than the storm’s radar echo.

  25. Based on the TV mets futurecasts, Boston will be having storms tomorow 12-4 pm then the South Shore/Cape thereafter through dinnertime. I know OS doesn’t agree with those futurecasts, but those of us who aren’t mets (general public) have no choice but to make plans based on them accordingly. I myself don’t know what other factors to look for.

    1. I just find them to be notoriously inaccurate. I use them (well actually
      the Model Simulated Radar). Even those are inaccurate. It is just a simulation
      based an algorithm some human coded with the best known science at the time.
      Nothing perfect. But In this case, I do agree with the Noon to 4PM time frame.

      We shall see how it pans out. I think it is likely to be more wet than stormy.
      Time will tell. We have to be on the lookout with this kind of soupy air mass
      and a dynamic front pushing through to provide ample lift.

  26. As expected today, not much action in Eastern Sections. All of the action to the West. 😀

  27. From the NWS Taunton Office re: tomorrow

    CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW…BUT HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE STILL WEAK. TEMPS ALOFT BARELY COOL A DEGREE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY STABLE AND WITH THE FRONT BEING DISPLACED BY THE SHORTWAVE…REALLY LOSING A GOOD AMOUNT OF FORCING. STILL WITH 70F DEWPOINTS CANT DISMISS THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SPIN-UP OR WET MICROBURST.

  28. Well…
    Just arrived at Marshalls Newton.
    Was looking at the double layer cloud
    Deck. Lower clouds moving south to north.
    Mid level moving west to east. That is observable
    Shear and helicity.

    Came into the store and a woman asked me
    Why I was looking at the sky. I told her I was
    Just looking at the clouds. She said why are they
    Dangerous. I said no. Then she said is there going
    To be a tornado. I didnt want to get into a big
    Discussion of what ifs and just said no.

    That never happened before.

  29. Latest sref still has zero tornado
    Parameters for tomorrow yet still
    Talk of spin ups. Tk toughts. Thanks

  30. OS, i saw your comment earlier about bass coming out at night, do u think tonight will be a good night to fish? I got into fishing recently and enjoy it very much. Btw what kind if bait do u use? I use the gary fake worms

    1. Kane
      Have not heard from you in awhile.

      My opinion is this evening would
      Be optimal.
      I use a variety of baits/lures for
      Large mouth bass. Gary yakomoto sp?
      Pladtic worms. Natural or green.
      Worden flatfish frog color.
      Arbogast jitter bug. Various spinner baits.
      But lately I have been using
      Live night crawlers.

      I have caught 15 this year on live
      Night crawlers. Only problem
      Is have to deal with smaller fish
      Pecking away. I hook them texas style
      Or my own once in the middle.
      Trying to present as naturally ax possible.
      I use florocarbom line that
      Is virtually invisible. It makes a difference
      As I catch fish in heavily fished
      Almost urban areas. Newto
      Needham
      Dedham
      Natick
      Millis
      Medfield

      Enjoy

      1. Yes i tend to be more active in the winter but i ave been following the blog but not posting.
        Anyhow, i caught a nice 7 pounder by a gary yajomoto worm. I will probably go fishing tonight by the horn pond in woburn. I use to use the night crawlers, but all i catch is sunfish with those, exciting at first, but then boring lol.
        Thanks for the tip!

        1. Artificial worms have come a long way in the couple of decades since I fished. I never caught anything with them. Will definitely keep that in mind. I’ve always been a jitterbug fan. If my tackle box is still intact I have my first jitterbug from back around 1955. Great sport Kane. And wonderful to see you on here

        2. 7 pounder. Holy Crap batman! That’s an awesome fish.
          I have caught many largemouth but nothing even approaching that size. About 3 1/2 pounds is my largest.
          I have caught a bunch of them in the 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 pound range like 17-19 inches in length.

          Must be where I fish.

  31. finally…… SUMMER!!!! 😀 Keep these 80s and 90s around, stop ya complaining 😀 I want my pool to warm up and I want it to stay warm, mother nature better not pull a fast one on me and make the weekend cool

  33. Took a very long walk this evening. Nice outside in the breeze.

    Looking at new info then will post a few thoughts…

    1. Looks to me like any tornado threat has diminished.
      The Vorticity Generation Potential index is down to .2
      Nothing at all on the SREF.

      We shall see. 😀

      1. Still NOTHING on SREF.

        I still think our threat today is just Heavy Rain and possible flooding.

  37. It’s not quite 7AM and the temperature is already up to 76 Degrees here with
    bright sunshine. The atmosphere is going to get very unstable QUICKLY.
    When it gets lifted, RAIN RAIN and MORE RAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SOUP CITY out
    there.

  39. For Kane

    The worms are by Gary Yamamoto. Had to check spelling.

    Thoughts on live night crawlers. My feeling is, IF there is a Bass in the area,
    that worm belongs to the Bass and no Blue gill, perch or crappie is going to get
    it IF the Bass wants it. I have had really good luck with the live night crawlers.

    OH, side bonus (valid even for artificial worms), occasionally I grab a nice
    pickerel instead of a bass. Those pickerel love a natural looking Night Crawler
    moving. Sometimes I think this is better than any other lure for pickerel.

  40. Trends suggest NAO headed back towards neutral or positive in the long term.

    Arctic Oscillation headed back towards neutral or slightly positive in the long term.

    In response, the jet stream may have a chance to lift northward in the central and eastern US.

    Perhaps some July heat starting mid month for the eastern 2/3rds of the US that really havent seen any thus far this summer.

    For instance, at day 10 on the EURO, 850 mb temps for the majority of the US are at least +15C, with pockets of 18-20C very close by to New England.

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