Friday Forecast Update

56 Comments

7:20AM

DAY 1-5…
No major changes since yesterday’s update, though a little more confident that the threat of an isolated storm can be removed from Sunday’s forecast, making for a completely dry weekend and a nice feel of Summer without very high humidity.
TODAY: Cloudy with patchy fog into mid morning then clearing northwest to southeast remainder of day.
Highs 75-82. Wind variable becoming W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 58-65. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 80-87, some upper 70s coast. Wind light W but with coastal sea breezes.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-67. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Highs 70-77.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)…
Low pressure trough dominates the weather with a couple additional episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms and higher humidity with near to slightly below normal temperatures during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)…
Trough exits the Northeast, ridge builds into the eastern US during this period with the weather trending drier and hotter.

56 thoughts on “Friday Forecast Update”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Looking forward to a beautiful weekend. Going to do a beach day on Sunday. Any recommendations within an hour from the city?

  4. Thanks TK !

    I’m guessing that some type of tracking of watches, warnings, advisories, special weather statements and whether they verify or not occurs at every NWS office and the last 2 weather events sure have been a challenge for rainfall.

    Of course, on Wednesday, we had the flash flood watch out for the convective event and last night, at least at 2:20 am, there was nothing hoisted for the very heavy rainfall in central portions of southern New England. ……. Not an easy science or job for sure.

    1. NWS had a flood watch out for last night’s rain and then pulled it down
      when they got the latest computer runs that indicated less rain.
      They live and die with each and every computer run. Model huggers? Sure
      seems so at times.

        1. Thanks OS.

          It seems it ended up further north and a bit more intense in a narrow corridor.

          RE :the further north track, NYC overnight made it into the warm sector (it was 74/71 at 2am) and even southernmost CT, RI and Cape Cod had winds coming around towards S and SE. I had thought a weak low, which it was, was slipping south of New England, but it looks like it tracked across south-central CT, RI and southeast Mass.

          1. There you go. Thank you.
            Not an exact science, is it?
            Imagine if this were a snow event and they
            blew it like that? (Like others mentioned already)

  5. Definitely seems there was a jackpot zone in eastern MA last night. Checking the ob sites, looks like Blue Hill was the winner with over 2″, although I’m sure there was locally higher. Boston at 1.27″. Definitely overperformed here. Poorly forecast overall. Tim Kelley mentioned on Twitter how mets can get away with it since it’s not snow. So true, lol.

    1. The lawns are having serious red thread, and mushrooms, and it’s mid July, crazy!!! Very moist

      1. We had tons of mushrooms when it was very very dry. I had commented on that here. I was more than surprised. They are gone now. And I don’t think crab grass gets red thread but it stays nice and green without water 🙂

  7. Good morning and as always thank you TK for the update. I don’t know how you
    do it, but LOVING the daily updates.

  9. I just realized Fall/Aeration over seedings are only 5-6 weeks away, geez it comes quick, sun angle is already equal to mid to late May.

  10. Thanks TK.
    Looks like were going to have our first dry weekend of summer 2015. Boring weather next couple days until early mid next week when there could be thunderstorms to track.

    1. Other than one crack of thunder with morning storms last week, there really
      hasn’t been a thunderstorm in Boston at all so far this season (I wouldn’t call that one a thunderstorm either) I am not holding my breath for any anytime soon. 😀

  11. I was fortunate back on the 23rd of June the thunderstorm that produced the microburst tracked just south of me. The microburst we had in CT that day I believe was stronger than the two EF 0 tornadoes that touched down in MA.
    Of course 26 years ago on this day July 10, 1989 several tornado touch downs in what became known as the Northeastern Tornado Outbreak. I was five years old at the time and the EF 1 tornado came through just around 5pm that day. A stronger EF 4 tornado struck Hamden, CT about a half later. That was the last strong tornado to hit CT.

  12. Hadi re: beaches

    If you are willing to drive just a tad farther, have you considered
    a beach or 2 in Rhode Island? For example: Scarborough Beach. It’s really nice.
    One advantage, the water would be a tad less cold. OR Narragansett? I haven’t been there, but hear it is nice. From your house it’s only about 1hr 15min. 95 South to rt. 4 South to rt. 1.

    Map:

    http://i.imgur.com/x2EpYZM.jpg

    Beach info:

    http://www.riparks.com/Locations/LocationScarborough.html

    1. There is also Horseneck Beach in Westport, MA.
      Again about 1hr 15 min or so. Another nice beach, although it is prone
      to seaweed.

        1. Humarock is rocky. You have to love it to like it :). My kids love horse neck. I also like good harbor in Gloucester but you have to be there early as it closes to non residents I believe. A trip to bear skin neck in rockport for ice cream and shops is just down the road also

  14. I believe that was the thunderstorm threat TK and Tom were talking about for around that time period. Looks like as of now that is still a possiblity.

  15. Thanks for the beach info. We went to Wingashek last year and it was great but so crowded. Looking for something that is not busy. Fat chance of that I guess.

    1. Gloucester? Ouch, talk about a drive and a brutal one at that.

      Drive to Scarborough may be somewhat long, but it is EASY. 😀

      You’ll end up at Nantasket, we know it. We went there all of the time
      as children and then up to our children being teen agers, we used to hit
      Nantasket every Sunday during the Summer.

      Here’s another for consideration. REALLY, REALLY nice beach.

      Misquamicut Beach in Westerly, RI. About 1 1/2 hours down rt. 95 virtually all the way. Piece of cake easy peasy drive.

      Info

      http://www.riparks.com/Locations/LocationMisquamicut.html

      Map

      http://i.imgur.com/QZHqWcc.jpg

        1. Drive from my house to Gloucester is the most brutal stressful drive in the history of driving! I can’t stand it.
          I have to go Storrow Drive then over the Tobin Bridge
          then up congested Rt. 1 through Saugus and then onto
          a God-awful stretch of rt. 128. I HATE IT!
          Did I tell you I HATE IT! 😀

          1. When you have infrastructure in a area 30+ year behind the rest of America,,, this is what u get

  16. Both those models showing some EHI values. Nothing impressive as of now.
    0z CMC
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=EHI&hh2=108&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=114
    6z GFS
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=102&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=108

    1. We just need to monitor at this point.

      Still days away. I am taking off that day. We’re visiting friends for poolside lunch and oh what a pool they have. Don’t mind if it storms, as long as we
      squeeze in an hour or 2 of partly sunny beforehand. 😀

  17. In summer it rarely rains all day long and you get dry times where you could get things in.
    We started out with nothing to really track in thunderstorms in early to mid June then since the week of June 22nd we had one thunderstorm threat day to watch and looks like at this point and it could change will continue that streak for next week.

  20. Boton (Logan) dew point up to 66. What gives with that?
    Thankfully it’s not hot out.

    Base on this surface map, we “should” be in an at least somewhat drier airmass.
    Eric Fisher last night was calling for beautiful weather WITHOUT too much humidity.
    Sorry, but dew point of 66 is TOO MUCH!!!!()@&#*(&!*(@#*(!^@#*&!(*#

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    1. Interesting and thank you for the link.

      Based on that one would think we would have a milder Winter with less
      snow, however, that is NOT a lock. We will have to wait and see.

      The strong sub tropical jet keeps the moisture train running across
      the Southern tier of the US. IF and I Say IF, there is some phasing with the
      Northern stream, it “could” get interesting to say the least. One thing for sure, if you don’t like snow, climatology is on your side, BUT I caution that Mother
      Nature always has tricks up her sleeve.

  23. I think it’s way too early to project what the winter will be like. It’s fine for Eric to write about it. And, I do understand the el nino effect. But, el nino is one of many factors that will influence our winter. I’ll go further than that. I don’t think it’s proper from a scientific perspective to state things like “an el nino winter.” Each and every el nino winter is different. They may share certain characteristics, but there’s A LOT of variability.

    To give you an analogy. I’m an economist and know that the Fed’s interest rate is an important, sometimes critical factor in determining the economic outlook. BUT, it is almost never a decisive factor, or the all-powerful deterministic factor that we can count on to shape the economy.

    If we do want to talk about next winter, I think we can in general terms say that we can rule out a repeat of last winter. But, strangely enough the odds are that we’ll probably see snowstorms or snow events interspersed over a much longer period of time than we did last winter. You know, one or two in December, two or three in January, February, and one or two in March.

    1. Well said Joshua. I have one additional comment.
      You said I think we can in general terms say that we can rule out a repeat of last winter. If you mean by general terms that it is highly unlikely, then I agree totally. If however, you mean it as an absolute, then I disagree a tad.

      Although I believe it to be unlikely, even highly unlikely, it is not totally
      and completely out of the question and certainly not impossible. Climatology, however, is clearly against it, that’s for sure. 😀

      1. I hope not. Our homeowners insurance just went up 1400 because we have had two ice dam problems. 2013 and 2015. They will get back twice what they paid out….except if I change companies which I will. We cannot afford another claim

    2. Well said also. I like your interest rate comparison. In my work we spend a lot of time looking at the future of our industry for strategic planning. There are about six key factors, never just one.

  25. Thank you Sue for posting Eric’s article on El Nino…nice read from him as always. 🙂

    However, I don’t know where Eric got his snow amounts for Logan during the Strong El Nino years but they are INCORRECT!!

    Here are the correct snowfall amounts for Logan from NWS data since 1890-91:

    Strong El Nino Years:

    1957-58 = 44.7″
    1965-66 = 44.1″
    1972-73 = 10.3″
    1987-88 = 52.6″
    *1982-83 = 32.7″
    *1997-98 = 25.6″

    *exceptionally strong El Nino

    Even though it is already safe to say Boston will not see anywhere near last year’s snowfall (110.6″) based on these numbers above, average snowfall (43.8″) cannot be
    totally ruled out by any means.

  26. Ya know, it dawned on me. WHW had boots on the ground in PA last night when North was there. TK I think WHW has gone national 🙂

    1. We do alot of remote reporting here and sometimes there are international reports here by some as well :). Safe to say it has gone Global.

  27. Thanks, Philip.

    The snow totals run the gamut, although there really aren’t any particularly high totals.

    I recall several major ice storms in 72-73. I was living in Needham at the time, pretty close to the Dover line. We didn’t get much snow that year, but we got two long duration ice events, as I remember. I was 7, so my memory may be off. But, for some strange reason I have better weather recall than almost anything else except for the Red Sox. I remember almost every player from the 1970s teams, the teams’ records, and even individual games that mattered. Speaking of which, tonight’s game mattered unfortunately, and it doesn’t look good for the Sox. They can’t lose three straight this weekend. Otherwise, all momentum is lost and the season is likely over, too.

  29. 6z run of GFS showing Wednesday as a day with enough instablity for thunderstorms.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=102&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=108
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=108&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=108&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=108&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=108&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  30. New post is up!

    JimmyJames, I reposted the 6z info you posted above so it’s there already…

    Heading to the beach. Will check in via mobile. Good day all!

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