Saturday Forecast Update

70 Comments

7:54AM

DAYS 1-5…
Great Summer weekend! No changes to previous discussion regarding the weather this weekend, which may feature the first 90 degree day in Boston since September 6 2014 (unless a sea breeze has something else to say about it). Still looking for another very warm day Monday then a slight cooling trend with unsettled weather Tuesday into Wednesday.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod and Islands, 80s elsewhere. Wind light NW becoming variable with light sea breezes in coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers/thunderstorms at night. Lows 64-72. Highs 82-90, cooler coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-83.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-83.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)…
Weak trough moves through the Northeast with a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms and temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)…
Flat ridge expands into the Northeast with only isolated showers and thunderstorms and temperatures warming to above normal.

70 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast Update”

  1. Here is a re-post of the one from JimmyJames…

    6z run of GFS showing Wednesday as a day with enough instablity for thunderstorms.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=102&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=108
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=108&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=108&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=108&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=108&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. Repost above looks funny on my laptop. The post cuts across the screen into the right navigation column.

  2. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    How cold were the June relative sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic?
    A. Coldest
    B. Second coldest
    C. Third coldest
    D. Fourth coldest

    What is the longest wait for 90 degrees in Boston set in 1906?

    A. July 8
    B. July 23
    C. August 1
    D. August 6

    Answers later today.

  4. Thanks TK. Enjoy the beach today.
    D and D.
    NWS out of Upton, NY was mentioning for thunderstorms in there discussion the lack of bulk shear despite the amount of instablity would be more of a heavy rain threat. Still need to watch this and can’t rule out an isolated strong or severe storm in that Tuesday Wednesday timeframe.

  5. FWIW …. Brett Anderson, over at Accuweather, usually on Friday’s, posts a general look ahead based on the ECMWF weeklies.

    The one item he threw in there that caught my attention was to keep an eye to the Southeast US coast for possible tropical development the next few weeks. Also, he projects the east coast to turn very warm/humid. Projects a west coast ridge, central US trof, east coast ridge.

    I think the daily operational runs of the GFS and EURO have been overall trending towards this the last 2-3 days as well.

  6. Here we go again!!!! Buchholz is hurt!!!

    There’s some tightness, some stiffness, in the elbow area. He’s undergoing a full workup with imaging, so until we get any further information, that’s all we have right now,” said Red Sox manager John Farrell, who noted that Buchholz was getting an MRI on Friday night as part of the exam. “Until we get any further information, that’s all we have right now.”

    1. He met his 15 start quota for the season ……

      Too bad really, for his whole career …. Not many pitchers have his curveball, a decent change and decent fastball movement.

      1. When he is on, he is clearly one of the best, however he is seriously very injury prone. He’s just not rugged. He is very frail. He even
        looks frail. Too bad he didn’t have the build of say a Roger Clemons
        or a Tom Seaver or even a Jon Lester. Nope, he’s Clay the Weenie!

  7. So what’s up with convection? It’s been on again off again.
    The 18Z GFS yesterday wanted to blow the roof off, then it was gone with
    the 0Z run. Now the 6Z run has shifted any “possible” and I use the word “possible”
    on purpose here, convection to Wednesday. Hmmmm

  8. 2 very warm, sunny days …. with light winds that might invite E and SE seabreezes during the mid afternoon.

    I wonder if the Boston Harbor Buoy might reach 70F this weekend sometime during the 2-7 pm time frame, either today or tomorrow …..

    1. With East or SE wind, very possible.

      Currently

      Boston Buoy

      Water Temperature (WTMP): 63.9 °F

      Stellwagen

      Water Temperature (WTMP): 62.2 °F

      Both have winds NW at about 6 or 7 mph, prime for a sea breeze

      Logan

      Wind from 330 at 8 knots. Hmm So far just enough to prevent a sea breeze

  10. Wise words, I am afraid:

    “The Red Sox are Fool’s Gold,” Dan Shaughnessy says. “The sooner we accept this fact, the easier it will be to tolerate another lost summer.”

    1. I disagree, I feel if they can pick up a stud pitcher, bull pen help and do something with Nap, Hanley, Flying Hawwian we will be in good shape. Seems like a steep task to do in a short few weeks but it is possible with the trade chips we have. Positive attitude wins in the long run!

      1. I’m Afraid that list of IFs is a bit too long to overcome.
        Hope you’re right. We shall see soon enough. 😀

    2. Shaunnasey is the biggest jealous patriot hater, that guy is so so so mad the Patriots are about to take headlines,,,, in August!!!! The modern day sports in New England. A group of 8 of us were just talking about that idiot and how he even looks like he’s from the 70’s lol!! Enjoy the day os 🙂

  12. SouthEast wind at Logan, NorthEast wind at Plymouth, NorthWest wind at
    Beverly.

    Seems as if Sea Breeze is along the immediate coast. We’re 5 or 6 miles in and
    NO sea Breeze here as of yet. I actually wouldn’t mind today or tomorrow. 😀

  13. Brett Anderson is a no nonsense forecaster, much like TK. Notice how they agree on the East Coast turning hot and humid. I don’t like the long-range forecast of heat and humidity, but I think it will happen based on Brett and TK.

    The Red Sox are probably fool’s gold. They have limited offense, a lot of mediocre pitching, and inconsistent defense. We’ll see how the season unfolds.

  14. Every once in a while, I check into what its like in North Carolina due to our recent visits and having relatives down there …..

    So, here are a couple of the current 1pm obs ….

    Wilmington, NC is sunny. Its 95F with a dp of 71F for a heat index of 102F.

    Good news, well sort of, it is “cooler” in Cape Hatteras, where its 87F, but unfortunately the dp is 76F, for a heat index of 97F.

    Quite pleasant 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    I still remember that 75F+ dp air from last summer down there. It makes walking into marginal air conditioning feel like a freezer.

  15. D & D for Trivia Quiz

    As for the Red Sox, they really need to win these last two remaining games with the Yankees. I am glad that tomorrow’s game is an afternoon (1:35) one for a change. I hate those 8:05 Sunday ESPN games. I have seen West Coast road games end sooner! 😀

    1. With Buchholz taken out of the game last night and the Sox losing, 1/3 of the potential wins was taken away. ONLY chance for a win is this evening
      with Rodriguez. Miley Cyrus gets lit up tomorrow, you can take that to the bank.

      They are either going to take one game OR get swept.

  16. Hmmm Sox should know results of Buchholz MRI by now.
    If it were good news, we would have heard something.
    I wonder if a trip to Dr. James Andrews is in the works? Hope not.

    1. Wee we don’t know. Buchholz was supposed to get the MRI last night.
      It’s nearly 3PM. CERTAINLY they have the results. They just haven’t announced the results OR what they intend to do.

      Inquiring minds need to know.

  18. The other issue is that the Red Sox bats continue to go silent whether the pitching is decent or terrible. I am now wondering if the old “chicken & beer” days have returned to the clubhouse? 😉

    1. Their main problem was a lack of pitching. The hitting sucked as well but
      has come around lately.

      They currently have 7 fairly regular players all above .267 with 3 of then
      over .300. That’s not too shaby.

      Their pitching blow, however, lately they have had 3 decent pitchers in
      Buchholz, Rodriguez and to a lesser extent Miley. Porkcello and Masterlessson
      BLOW as did Steven Wrong.

  20. The Red Sox need to treat these last two games like they are trailing in a series 3-2 and game 6 is tonight. Of course, if Bucholz will miss starts or is done for the season, it will probably be a moot point anyway.

    1. Agree. They really need these next 2. Not sure that is realistic.
      Hope the kid is ON tonight.

  21. For Tom. Boston Buoy

    Conditions at 44013 as of
    (2:50 pm EDT)
    1850 GMT on 07/11/2015:
    Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
    Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

    5-day plot – Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
    5-day plot – Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 3.9 kts
    5-day plot – Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 5.8 kts
    5-day plot – Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 1.0 ft
    5-day plot – Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
    5-day plot – Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.4 sec
    5-day plot – Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 115 deg true )
    5-day plot – Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.03 in
    5-day plot – Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
    5-day plot – Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.8 °F
    5-day plot – Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 70.0 °F
    5-day plot – Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 65.5 °F
    5-day plot – Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 5.8 kts
    5-day plot – Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 5.8 kts

    1. Buoy 45132
      (45132) 42.5N 81.2W
      Last Updated: Jul 11 2015, 3:00 pm EDT
      Sat, 11 Jul 2015 15:00:00 -0400
      Temperature: 70.7 °F (21.5 °C)
      Wind: Southwest at 6.7 MPH (5.83 KT)
      MSL Pressure: 1021.2 mb
      Water Temperature: 70.3 °F (21.3 °C)
      Wave Height: 0.1 m (0.33 ft)
      Dominant Period: 4 sec

  23. Answers to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    How cold were the June relative sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic?

    A. Coldest
    B. Second coldest
    C. Third coldest
    D. Fourth coldest

    What is the longest wait for 90 degrees in Boston set in 1906?

    A. July 8
    B. July 23
    C. August 1
    D. August 6

    B & D, I believe.

  24. Mac has relatives visiting him from various locations. His brother, wife and their 20 something daughter are headed to fenway tonight. I mentioned that there is on and off talk of replacing fenway. My niece was dumbfounded. She said bar none it is the park all of her friends want to go to and think of first when parks are mentioned. It was just special hearing that our old park is loved by even the youngest generation.

    1. It’s a beautiful baseball cathedral. Obviously we New Englanders love it. Outside of New England it’s considered a gem by most Americans. Overseas, they love it, too. There are very few buildings that Europeans would consider old in the U.S. But, Fenway is one. For a stadium that is in use it is one of the oldest in the world. We have two such antique arena’s in the Boston area: Harvard Stadium (1902!) and Fenway (1912).

  25. Today was a great beach day at Ogunquit. And the water was warm for location and mid July.

    And now what a wonderful evening at Salem Willows. Fireworks in a few minutes. 🙂

    1. Kids were at Humarock today…surprise :). Grandson said he thought water was colder than it has been. Must have sent warmth north.

      1. I thought I heard last week that Nantucket Harbor was 70 (that seems kind of high?) and the Cape was around 60 degrees. Not sure how those temps match up to other years for early July.

        1. Wow 70 is like bath water in these parts. I was surprised when kids said Humarock was cold as it’s been comfortable most of the year. I think it has to do with current. Tom may well know more about it.

    1. Interesting, Tom. Thanks. I had heard somewhere that the lower probability of hurricanes didn’t take into account development along the east coast. I was curious to see what that meant.

  27. I had seen possible storms this pm a while ago. I noticed it is not in your forecast, TK. Is the possibility still off the table?

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