Sunday Forecast Update

117 Comments

8:30AM

DAYS 1-5…
Great Summer weekend continues but once again as many other days have seen, there is areas of smoke high in the sky from the forest fires in Canada, and this will give the sky a more milky look rather than a deeper blue! Boston still has a shot at seeing their first 90 degree day since September 6 2014. It all comes down to wind direction. The edge comes off the warmth Monday as the wind starts to turn onshore across southeastern New England due to configuration of weak high pressure to the north and weak low pressure to the south. A low pressure trough will bring unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday, then this gets kicked offshore by high pressure with improving weather by Thursday.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny but sun filtered at times by smoke aloft. Highs 85-92. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-86, coolest at the coast. Wind light S to SE.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-83.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-83.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs 78-85.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)…
A few showers and thunderstorms possible July 17 with a disturbance. A nice July 18-19. Another disturbance brings additional showers/thunderstorms around July 20-21. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-26)…
Flat ridge expands into the Northeast with only isolated showers and thunderstorms and temperatures warming to above normal.

117 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast Update”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Can feel it getting a bit more sticky. Still not like last Wednesday, but
    sticky none-the-less. Logan Dew point=60, however, Blue Hill and Norwood
    both at 62 as is Bedford.

  3. Ton Tom’s earlier post:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

    For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A non-tropical low pressure system located about 115 miles east of
    Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing disorganized cloudiness
    and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to only be
    marginally conducive for the development of a subtropical or
    tropical cyclone during the next day or so while the low accelerates
    northeastward away from the United States.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

    Forecaster Kimberlain

  7. Charlie, you are definitely a `forward-thinking’ man. It seems that by January we’re already being reminded that our days are getting longer and there’s a different sun angle, and now in the middle of summer we’re being reminded that our days are getting shorter.

    We may hit 90F today, but without full sunshine I sort of doubt it. I’m glad we haven’t gotten our normal dose of heat and humidity. It’s been a fine summer in that regard.

    On a different note: Baseball. I’ve often knocked Cherington. But, I do think that I ought to give him credit where it is due. Eduardo Rodriguez is the real deal. Big guy, great fastball, doesn’t dither. He’s worth Andrew Miller. In fact, he’s worth more than Andrew Miller. D’Aza was also a nice pick-up. He’s a ballplayer. Sort of a Brock Holt type (by the way also a Cherington move). And, Uehara’s still throwing like a bona fide closer. Now if the Sox could please release Napoli (thank him for his great service in 2013), Victorino (thank him for his service in 2013, but the man is always injured), Ross, and Breslow. I wish we could get rid of Sandoval and Porcello. Alas, these two are Cherington screw-ups that can’t simply be released or traded.

    1. I concur. We’re stuck with Tubby and Goofus, but we can certainly depart ways
      with the others you mention. Rodriguez may end up being the steal of the century. I never realized how good this kid was. Curt Schilling raves about him.

      Contrary to what many say, I firmly believe that Brock Holt is the real deal
      and CAN be and IS an everyday player and not a super utility player. 😀

    2. Agree with much of your thinking. Am looking forward to seeing Johnson pitch up from the minors.
      My view: unless Porcello is one of those fazed by the Boston pressure, he will find his form and be a good pitcher.
      Sandoval plays his best in September and October and simply is not that outstanding during the year. That has always been his M.O.
      So I still hold out hope. They are playing well over a 17 game stretch without their best all-around player and with one of their power hitters hitting nothing.

      1. I’t good that you hold out hope. I just don’t want it to be false hope. I caution on too much optimism, although I certainly want them to do well. re: Porkcello FUGGETABOUT him. He is cooked and NEVER will be a good pitcher here. NEVER! We’ll live and die
        with the kids.

  8. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    Boston still hasn’t reached 90 degrees this year as of this morning. How many other times has it not hit 90 this late over the last 140 years? (Since records were kept.)

    A. 2 other times
    B. 6 other times
    C. 14 other times
    D. Never

    What is Boston’s longest stretch without reaching 90 degrees?

    A. 300 days
    B. 356 days
    C. 401 days
    D. 415 days

    Answers later today.

  9. Waiting for the rest of the 10 AM obs to come in, but Blue Hill is reporting
    temp of 76 with Dew Point of 63 with the wind from 270 at 5 knots. That’s a light
    gradient and “may” allow an Easterly wind and prevent Boston from it’s 1st 90 Degree day. Also, that front to the North is moving Southward with a tendency to turn coastal
    winds on shore. We shall see. IF I were a betting man, I would say Boston does NOT
    make 90 today. It will be interesting to see.

    1. Also, the “dimness” of the sun today, I wonder if thats worth another degree or two less ……

    2. Boston is in. Light wind.

      Boston Logan at 10 AM is up to 81 Degrees, with Dew point of 61 and Wind From 270 at 5 knots. Unless the land breeze picks up, Logan will flip to a Sea Breeze
      very soon. Hmmm just checked the 12Z NAM. It KEEPS 10M winds off shore
      from the West and SouthWest, so I guess we shall see.

        1. That’s funny. Wouldn’t surprise me. Wouldn’t surprise me at 3:59:20 PM the mercury touches 90 for a millisecond either.
          😀

          1. If not today, it may be a while before another opportunity presents itself.

            The models seem to be waffling on long term warmth.

  11. I just saw page 1 of the Sunday Boston Globe ….. My goodness, it costs $3.50 down here in Marshfield …. seriously !?!? …..

    Anyhow, one of its lead articles related to the arctic and warming.

    While I would have loved to read it and probably can online, I’d rather spend the $3.50 on a coffee or 2. 🙂 🙂

    The last time I bought a Sunday Boston Globe years ago, it cost $2. Is that what a weekday paper costs now ?

    1. Don’t know. Haven’t purchased a paper since we had the internet in this house.
      20 years now I believe. Our 1st computer with AOL was 1995. My son needed
      it for his studies at Boston Latin School. He had to take this Pascal Programming course with nightly assignments. At first I can’t tell you how many of his programs I had to help him with, then he never needed help again. Nice language
      at the time.

      1. Same here regarding purchase of a paper.

        I seem to remember an AOL account back in the 90s and the first time with an internet connection to get weather info online. My goodness, comparatively, there was so little back then and yet, at the time, it fealt like a universe of information.

        1. Yes, it did. I had my e-mail on Gopher in the early to mid-1990s. Did not have internet in my home until the late 1990s.

          In some ways I miss the pre-internet days. I’m a nostalgic person and not at all into devices or new technologies. Hence, my antiquated but still functioning cellphone from 2001, my 1981 Canon A1 (still makes the best pictures in the business), and my having never purchased any Apple product of any kind. Not because I don’t like them, but because I have no need for them.

  12. With all of the beaches and fireworks etc. that I do during Endless Summer every year, it’s nice to have a Summer day around home, and today is one of those days for me. I actually have the house to myself for a good amount of the late morning into the afternoon, so filling the air with tunes and getting caught up on things with windows wide open. I hope my neighbors like Stevie Wonder. The entire boxed set covering 1963-1999 is in the player. 🙂

    1. I love the occasional day or even hours when I have the house to myself. Wouldn’t want to always but it is a treat. Have fun TK

      1. I like having people around. I like activity, celebration, etc. … But when I have a day like this, the tunes go on and I relive memories and get nostalgic while taking care of tasks. The feeling is always great. I suspect you know very well what I mean. 🙂

  13. Had to go out and run some errands.
    Getting in my car at 10:45 there was a distinct
    Light Easterly breeze!!

    1. However just got out of my car
      In w. Roxbury like 3-4 miles to the west
      And there is a pretty good land breeze

  14. Noon Logan Obs

    Temp 85 Dew point 63 Wind from 220 at 4 knots. It has to turn.

    Obviously, I was mistaken about an East wind early. Must have been some tree/house
    eddies of some sort.

  15. Interesting from NWS. They expect dew points to DROP this PM and off shore winds
    to pick up. Let’s see how right they are.

    SHOULD BE COMFORTABLE WITH DECENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS AROUND THE UPPER-50S. W/SW-WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 20 MPH AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXES DOWN FASTER W-MOMENTUM ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH AXIS SWEEPING THE REGION.

    1. Gonna be a close call. We lose a lot of the gradient that creates the westerly wind fairly early tonight…

  16. Here at the beach on the south coast of RI perfect day. Air temp about 77° just got out of the water the water temp is about 72°. Have a great day all love the blog

    1. Sounds great! One of these days I’m going to a South Coast beach. I love my East Coast locations that I go to (Nahant, Wingaersheek, Hampton, Ogunquit to name a few) but I’ve been wanting to give the South Coast a visit for a while…

      1. Newport 2nd (Sachuest Beach) is my fav. Off the beaten path, no frills. Expensive on the weekends though and can get crowded but WELL worth it 🙂

        1. South coast beaches, and especially Newport beaches are prone to that red seaweed. The earlier you go in the season the better, they are usually in full force these by mid-late august

          1. I’d be prone to going there early in the season since the water would be warmer there than along the eastern shores. Given my schedule and plans for the rest of this Summer my chances of getting to the South Coast for a beach day are not great, but I’ll put it on the calendar for June 2016. 🙂

  18. 2Pm 86 at Blue Hill and dew point has dropped from 64 at Noon to 58 at 2PM.
    That’s better!!!!

  20. Boston needs that wind to come around more to the west. Was due south at 1PM but starting to go more westerly. They need 5 more degrees and have probably 4 hours to get them. Last hour it was 88 at Taunton and Marshfield, both tend to run a little warm anyway, and those are your hot spots so far.

  21. Up to 87 at Logan. 3 more… I don’t think they are going to make it. 88 or 89.

  22. I’m looking forward to the Bermuda High building north and west for late July into September with the deep blue tropical sky no haze or pollution from the southwest. Any thoughts?

    1. If that scenario means HHH with temps the 90s…then no thanks!

      Unfortunately, it does appear much hotter 2nd half of summer. 🙁

    2. We need a few things to adjust to get that thing to build. We may end up seeing it start with a ridge that builds from the central US northward, then eastward, then everything kind of merges together off the East Coast with time. It’s like trying to forecast the movement of giant bubbles with so many variables to consider. 🙂

      We’d need pure tropical air to keep the air clear, versus the hazy look. I think we may see a mix of both as we get deeper into Summer this year.

  23. And Concord NH wins the race to 90 in central and southern New England. The only official station to hit 90 so far today… Let’s see if anyone follows this.

  24. Great weekend for sure. Party was a huge success yesterday. Just finished cleaning up and now it’s pool time. Very warm down here today I love it. Tom not sure if you heard older gentleman fell into I believe town pier sadly drowned., 2nd one down here this weekend as there was also one at Morton pond in Plymouth .

  25. 12z GFS aggressive with CAPE and Lift Index Values for next Saturday for Great Lakes Region then here on Sunday. Long way off but something to keep an eye on.

    1. Hadn’t looked that far ahead. but thanks for the tip.
      I liken it to seeing a big snow storm a week out on the GFS in Winter.
      Nothing to get excited and/or concerned about a week out.
      We shall see as we get closer. 😀

  26. It hasnt hit 90F at Logan in forever …. its close and so … of course, the 3pm ob is “not available”

    Good job over there …….

    1. It’s “only” 87 here, but feels damn hot.
      Just installed one window AC unit and am sweating bullets. Downing a water
      before I do the next one. 😀

    2. Is there an observer there? OR is it now automated?
      IF automated, it has MELTED. IF not, the observer had one too many
      beers and is out and/or he fell into the harbor. That place is a JOKE!!!!!!!!1

      1. I was wondering the same thing (observer vs automated).

        In the scheme of things, its a minor issue, but it would have been nice to get THIS particular ob. …… Oh well ……

      1. Well I just said it was tied. I certainly didn’t expect it to stay
        that way and of course Miley Cyrus coughed it up as he
        ALWAYS does.

  31. 3 PM Obs. for Logan = NOT AVAILABLE????

    3 PM Obs. for Marshfield = 90F (Congrats Tom!!) 😀

    No other stations with 90 or higher at this time.

    1. 🙂

      No missed obs here !

      (To be fair, I’ve seen the Marshfield automated ob go down for days at a time)

  33. Crucial game. Good teams tend to win these games, while mediocre teams tend to lose them. I’m afraid Boston is mostly in the latter camp this year.

    Wade Miley is a below-average pitcher. Not terrible, but not someone who I think should be in the Sox rotation except for spot starts and long relief.

    A comeback against this Yankee bullpen – best in the majors in my opinion – is virtually impossible. Unfortunately, I see the Yankees winning this division by a wide margin when all is said and done. They have a more than adequate offense when everyone is healthy, and their pitching is good. No other team in the AL East can say that. The Sox pitching overall is bad. Offense has been inconsistent.

    The heat is getting to me. It’s not a brutal heat, but enough to deplete my reserves. It’s hard to work in the summer on days like this, but my schedule is such that I must work almost every day during the summer.

  34. Too hot for me. Hit 90 in Wrentham. Not humid at least but I’m just not a hot weather person, unless I’m on the beach!

    I think the Sox are a fun team to watch this year. Maddening at times, but fun. I like their lineup a lot, plenty of talent, power, and grit in there. Problem is the pitching of course, if they had even an average rotation they’d be a playoff team. Realistically, I don’t expect them to contend for a spot, whether they win today or not. E-Rod only pitches once every 5 games, unfortunately.

  35. Since when is one day of upper 80s to 90 with dew point 60-65 a “stretch of hazy hot and humid weather”? Well that is what a local news radio station has declared. They also called the sky “overcast”. Hmm all I see is a thin layer of smoke and no clouds.

  36. US National Weather Service Boston MA
    5 mins ·
    As of 4:24 PM the high temperature for Boston today has been 89 degrees. The temp has been bouncing between 88 and 89 since 2:30 PM

  37. 8th inning, 6-4 NY. Kiss it good-bye and while you are at it, kiss the whole season
    good-bye!!! See YA!!

  40. It’s hot outside. Whether it got to 89F or 90F, I really don’t care. I want my 70s back!

    Summer does mean baseball, and baseball is my favorite sport. At least we got to see a meaningful series between the rivals. But, the Yankees are a better team, plain and simple. They’re also built to be a good playoff team. They’re not as good as the Cardinals or Royals. But, don’t be surprised if they win it all. I like their rotation and especially the bullpen (though there were some hiccups today). The Yankee offense is dangerous because of the veteran presence and the healthy mix of hitters and bombers. Plus, they’re the Yankees, a perennial successful team. My respect notwithstanding, I can’t stand the Yankees: The corporate attitude, the clean shaven look, the money solves everything strategy.

    The Sox should be smart sellers and unload the deadwood while building towards next year. I like some of the core players, but am aghast at how bad the pitching has been, and am less than thrilled (understatement of the year) about the offensive acquisitions of Sandoval, Craig, and Castillo.

      1. Relatives from San francisco who attended the game last night at Fenway said the same today, Charlie. They didn’t know much about Brady but has assumed that he did something. They don’t think so any more :). When I said folks like to hate the Pats, my niece said because they win and do it well..smart young lady. And all agreed it was similar with Yankees

        Btw their seats were in the middle of very obnoxious yankee fans.

  41. Answers to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    Boston still hasn’t reached 90 degrees this year as of this morning. How many other times has it not hit 90 this late over the last 140 years? (Since records were kept.)

    A. 2 other times
    B. 6 other times
    C. 14 other times
    D. Never

    What is Boston’s longest stretch without reaching 90 degrees?

    A. 300 days
    B. 356 days
    C. 401 days
    D. 415 days

    The answers are B & D.

  42. CPC’s model-hugging flips in their long range forecasts are going to come back to bite them big time if they don’t quit it.

  43. 88 at 6PM at Logan with a west wind between 10 & 20 MPH. Though I would not rule out a jump to 90 this hour there, it’s not likely with filtered and lowering sun… This is the final hour!

  45. On what date during the 2009 summer did Logan hit 90???

    I remember it finally got hot from mid-July through most of August of that “infamous” summer. Just wondering.

    1. April 28 with a high of 93.

      Later on they saw a 3-day heatwave: 94 Monday August 17, 95 Tuesday August 18, 91 Wednesday August 19. After a high of 80 on Thursday August 20 it bounced back to 90 on Friday August 21.

      Part of this post got cut off by my phone. Fixed it.

      1. Too brief
        Humidity blows chunks@@@@@

        Waiting in line at DQ. I’m sorry but
        It’s stinken hot@!!!!@@

  47. Official high at Logan today = 89F…so what else is new? 😉

    TK – Does Logan hit 90 sometime 2nd half of month?

    1. The period July 21-31 should feature some 90+ degree days then watch out for August and September.

      El Nino Summers are traditionally back-loaded with heat and humidity.

      1. Or the seasons are shifting ;). And daughters bday is july 22 and she loves heat. Somehow I think she may have a hand in this.

  48. TK – I meant what was the “first” 90 for Boston that 2009 summer? I should have been more specific.

    1. See above. The post cut by my phone. Just fixed it via computer. It was April 28. The first heatwave was August 17-19.

  50. Severe storms in Minnesota, as Tom and OS noted. I don’t think they’ll impact the Twin Cities. We’ll see.

    Nunavut really does look like it will be a summerless 2015. Weather there is downright awful: 40s and rain during the day, 30s at night. Not even close to their normal highs of mid to upper 50s. Large chunks of ice still dot the waterways, with some snow remaining on the cliffs.

    By the way, it’s cold out at Yosemite. I mean really cold for this time of year. Mid 60s for a high in the valley. Compare that to what it’s been like. Someone told me that the higher altitudes got snow the other day. I haven’t been able to verify that.

    El Nino may indeed bring us some back end heat and humidity, but for the most part the Lower 48 has been spared a hot summer.

    1. Wasn’t washington state unusually hot?

      CA relatives are hoping El Niño brings more moisture next year. It surprises me that San Francisco area is still not as bad and still has a few days they can water. Golf courses too.

  51. I love how the Boston Globe puts a story on the front page about how fast the ice is vanishing from the Barrow AK area and how warm it is there this Summer.

    But they conveniently ignored the other parts of the Arctic that are colder than normal this season.

    It’s called A BLOCKING PATTERN! The misinformation is getting idiotic.

    And non-scientists that report this stuff need to stop acting like they actually know everything that is going on without getting the whole story and getting it right. It’s an insult to the profession.

    AND LEAVE THE DAMN POLITICS OUT OF IT!!!!!

    1. The scientists have been watching Barrow for decades. Their way of life is changing. I totally agree re politics getting out if climate change. It is a joke that it is used as a political game

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