Wednesday Forecast Update

123 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5…
Muggy and unsettled today as a cold front pushes through and low pressure forms offshore. It all gets pushed out by high pressure which brings great weather Thursday and Friday. Humidity slowly returns over the weekend but the shower threat will be very limited with only a couple very weak disturbances around.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Developing showers and possible thunderstorms in any area by midday but favoring southeastern MA and RI during the afternoon. A few downpours likely. Humid. Highs 75-83, cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable from N to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Slow clearing. Drying out. Lows 60-65. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs around 80, cooler coast. Wind light N to E.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Lows 55-65, coolest interior valleys. Highs 75-85, coolest coast.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Rain-free most of the time. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-85, coolest in coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)…
Muggy with showers and thunderstorms possible July 20-22. Drier July 23-24 with seasonable warmth.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)…
Temperatures above normal. Rainfall near to below normal.

123 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast Update”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    AS Hadi indicated yucky out. 8AM Boston Dew point = 70
    with temperature 74 and no wind. Is it going to SoutWest or EAST?
    You be the judge. 😀

    2. My bet on Brady is down to 1 or possibly two games and no changes to penalty for Pats. If it is more than zero and his name is completely cleared, I do hope Brady pursues it. Goodell has to go.

  8. That spin should come just shy of Boston IMO, from Quincy to maybe Wrentham to Woonsocket southward straddling the ri conn border 🙂 you agree tk?

    1. Yes but it’s going to be about boundaries today…where the convergence is. We don’t have the set-up for severe storms but we do have the set-up for some torrential downpours along these convergence zones. That can lead to short-term flooding. Most areas won’t see this today but where it does occur, it’s locally problematic.

  10. The initial convergence line runs from Boston to northwestern RI and northeastern CT. This may wobble a bit through midday then drift to the southeast. That strip is the most likely area for development.

  11. Local media, misleading the public again… I’m getting fed up with this stupidity in reporting.

    4 inches of accumulated hail in a spot in the Plains that notoriously gets hail-producing thunderstorms. Yes, 4 inches of accumulated hail is A BIT rare for any given location, but it happens.

    Reporter says (paraphrased): “Either way, this type of event is very weird for mid July.”

    Really? Hail in thunderstorms is rare in the Summer? I guess it’s more common in the dead of Winter.

    STOP MAKING PEOPLE THINK EVERY DAMN WEATHER EVENT IS UNUSUAL OR BIZARRE!!! IT IS NOT!!!!!!

    2. I had seen that on the news and thought it was fascinating but wondered how often snow plows had to be used this time of year. The report I saw didn’t sensationalize. It just reported with what I’d call excitement.

      1. It is exciting. Snow plows will get called out on occasion for an event such as this.

        1. I’m not a huge fan of hail since my car is not garaged but yep…exciting. I did suspect plows for hail was more rare that not.

    3. Didn’t you hear the next mini ice age is coming? By what…2030 I think they said.?After 20 years of hearing about how the northeast will be like the deep south soon thanks to global warming. This is the only place I come to for weather for a host of reasons…HA.

        1. Based on the look of cumulus towers nothing will sustain that long up this way. SE shift this afternoon.

          1. Was just going to mention that they are going poof.
            So what else is new. 😀

            See what happens a little later.

          2. This all seems very similar to about a week ago, flood watch in the same area with heavy rains the main threat. That was good for an 1 inch + in Marshfield last time.

  13. Big downpour in Sudbury around an hour ago….also very short lived.

    Sky is awesome – huge clouds to the north

  15. We were in Framingham at Noon so we missed the downpour – but coming home it was evident there had been some heavy rain w/the wet roads. In Framingham Ctre., where we were, it was raining lightly and the sun was out – Rainshine! 🙂 I can’t help it. When it happens every summer I have to mention it! That’s why I chose the name rainshine. In any case, like Vicki said, quite a beautiful, awesome sky today.

    1. haha – I was in Sudbury and you were in Framingham…..I think we may have passed each other! And love the rainshine!

  16. Not much happening. I see some beautiful cumulus, but so far not productive.

    We shall see, but it wouldn’t surprise me if NOT a DROP falls on Boston. 😀

  17. Question – we may be going up to Rockport/Gloucester this coming Sat. Does anyone know of any good restaurants in either town that we could get lunch at that isn’t that expensive? And that serves good seafood? If I’m near the ocean I like to eat seafood. Thanks.

  18. Combine the very cool/dry air in northern New England with this upper level feature passing south and east of us …… I wonder if there’s going to be a couple hrs of rather gusty N to NE winds sometime later this evening ………

  20. Radar is distinctly void of echos all over the area. We have some out West and Some
    down my NYC. The ones Out West are moving SW or S. THe ones near NYC
    are moving E or ENE. Interesting.

  21. Tom and tjammer – thank you. Hoping the weather isn’t too bad. The Weather Channel (weatherscan) has Sat. rainy. But I’ll go w/TK’s forecast w/just some isolated showers.

    1. The convection over land is “feeling” the high altitude circulation of the upper level feature moving south of us.

      In some sense, I feel like we are watching a winter time scenario.

      It wouldnt surprise me if the convection moves NE to SE, then N to S and finally NW to SE, that pivot idea.

      Feels a bit like that last big event last February, where the actual upper low went well south of New England, but it was still close enough to capture that crazy band of snow and yank it back into eastern New England. The one with all the lightning in Plymouth.

    1. I was not, but there is still a shot at a broken line forming somewhere south of Boston before sunset. There are a couple boundaries sitting around.

      1. My wife is planting new flowers in our beds today. We are hoping for some rain.

        I will be at the U2 concert in a suite. First time I have been to a concert in years.

  24. We got ourselves a boundary over eastern Essex County MA which has been sitting around since last night and reactivated this afternoon. Some nice pop up downpours from near the NH Seacoast down I-95 into northeastern MA.

  25. Second half of the afternoon is when I think most of the stuff will fire in southeastern MA and RI. Not widespread coverage though.

  27. Key to the northeastern MA stuff right now is the convergence between the northerly wind inland and the easterly wind near the shore. Neither are strong, but it’s enough to provide lift and it’s just unstable enough to build some downpours. We do not have great venting above so they should be pop-up/rain-out/collapse type of cells. Also little if any lightning with these unless one is able to sustain a stronger updraft a bit longer.

    1. The city itself is running out of time. Convergence line will be southeast of them very soon.

  30. Both 12z runs of American Models showing some pretty good EHI Values for Saturday. NAM over cooking it as usual.

        1. I am not going my hope up. When I see things show up like that I like to keep an eye on it.

    1. These were not expected to be powerful thunderstorms, but mainly showers with downpours, and those are occurring in some areas. I did not expect them to be widespread, and they are not.

  32. Here is a little short-term lesson. Often when we are looking at the atmosphere and trying to forecast it, we fall into the trap that we’re trying to predict the movement of solid entities, or at least distinct “objects” moving about in the air. This is not the case whatsoever. We’re trying to observe and predict irregular bubbles of fluid within other fluid, with varying densities and moisture contents, being acted upon by existing forces within the atmosphere as well as this little tiny thing at the center of the solar system called the Sun.

    Look at this visible loop and you can pick out some of the complexities of forces at work here. How many people would be able to forecast a south-to-north dissipating of north-to-south moving stratocumulus in southeastern Canada, for example?

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ne/flash-vis.html

  33. We have not been in a pattern for big t-storms for a long time, and we’re still not in it. Virtually all model forecasts will be overdone. This will not change until we have a complete change in the pattern and start getting shortwaves passing further north, rather than south of here. I was speaking with a friend and fellow forecaster on a long walk last night about this very pattern. He loves chasing storms both here and in the Plains and is disappointed in the pattern the last couple Summers. It happens. We’ve had years when you can get the storms to shut off. It’s just a variable place, folks.

  34. From NWS Taunton For Saturday
    ONE ITEM OF INTEREST IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS
    SAT AS A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND. MODELS FORECAST DECENT INSTABILITY /1500-2500 J/KG
    DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE/ AND 0-6KM SHEAR /35-45KT/…
    MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z GFS SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF
    ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 6-8C/KM/ BUT TIMING
    MAY BE FACTOR SINCE IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON. AS IS USUALLY
    CASE TIMING MAY BE LIMITING FACTOR…ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY HOLDS
    OFF UNTIL AFTER MAX HEATING.

  35. Here are the EHI Values for Saturday from American Models. Again not excited but keeping an eye on it.
    12z GFS
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=084&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    12z NAM
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=084&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. EHI values much higher the the SouthWest.
      Have to watch it, but so far SREF does not seem to be concerned. Again, will
      watch it.

  36. Boston needs the rain, so I am disappointed. Even a half-hour downpour would help. Gardens need it. The pumpkins and chestnuts will have stunted growth without rain. The foliage will be muted without rain. The ducks won’t be happy without rain. But, as TK, said, we’re in a dry period. So much for my silly prediction of lots of rain this week. Not!

  37. Suprisingly no rain is ok, the lawns look great for mid summer. Other than some very light heat stress, no drought stress to this point, there a nice green, once it goes past mid Aug or so the sun angle doesn’t beat the lawns up, when we reach sept 1st any heat or drought stress begins recovering.

  38. Southeastern MA & RI now have the action as was expected. Many places will be missed, but some good downpours will visit others.

    Heading to Hampton Beach. Showers around there now but a nice evening ahead including 9:30PM fireworks. Will check in mobile. Good evening all!

  39. I’m on the North Attleboro/Plainville line. It’s been looking threatening but no action yet.

  42. I wonder what the rain totals will be in the area getting continually hit by what looks like torrential rains ….

    I’d have to think there is some significant, localized flash flooding going on down there.

    1. The Fall River Wunder has just .68. But I don’t know how updated or accurate or is. I would think you are right, Tom. It’s been sitting there a while

      1. I’d trust it …… It should be interesting to see the storm totals when they are posted later on.

        See a 3.21 in Warren, RI so far from the storm totals on Taunton NWS, updated at 8:05pm.

    1. Embarrassing. That “study” has received way too much attention the past few days. Not faulting you at all for posting it, but people see this crap and it makes it even harder to distinguish real science from denialist musings. Even the so called “skeptics” out there know this is bull, but they stay quiet about it to avoid hurting their cause. Instead, they focus only on the misinformation coming from the other side, which admittedly does exist (especially trying to link ordinary events to global warming), while conveniently ignoring the BS flying out of there own side. Even if we had another Maunder Minimum, and it may happen, the rate of Earth’s warming will slow only slightly, particularly in the long term. Many of the very important natural cycles will favor coolness over the next decade, especially if we get a -AMO -PDO combo for several years, along with the likely low solar. But most likely the global temp will just flatline a bit. When the natural cycles flip to warm and combine with our 400+ppm CO2 levels, we will see unprecedented, potentially catastrophic warming. Not trying to start a debate or get political or anything, but I felt it had to be said.

      We’ve finally gotten some raindrops here in Wrentham, was starting to think I wouldn’t see a drop all day.

  44. Its looked very threatening out here for hours with not a drop of rain. Its scaring away the golf customers, lol

  45. Now that the NE wind is well
    Entrenched we get convection.
    Go figure. Elevated convergence???
    Weird.

  46. 18z NAM giving SNE enough instability for thunderstorms on Saturday. 18z GFS keeps instability west of SNE.

      1. I am thinking general thunderstorms should they develop on Saturday. Will continue to watch.

    1. I go into store no rain. Come out
      And get drenched goin to csr.
      Dont like that!!!@@!@!!

      1. Doesnt where this band of rain is setup remind you of where the snow band ends up enhanced when an upper low passes southeast of New England, as one is doing right now ……..

        SW suburbs of Boston, southwestward to northeast RI …..

  49. I’m struggling to find some decent weather for northern Maine after Friday ….

    Seeing warm frontal rains Saturday ….

    Misty, murky, mild, muggy Sunday and Monday with a damp SE surface flow …..

    Another low with more rain Tuesday ……

    Well, the rivers and the waterfalls should be flowing pretty good for mid summer. 🙂 🙂

    2. I had to double check, because I was half paying attention to the evening news, but this fly by of Pluto has found it to be a bit bigger than previously thought.

      I guess they now estimate it to be 2/3rds the size of earth’s moon.

  53. This sounds a little more ominous for Saturday from NWS Upton, NY office

    INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
    APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING…WITH FAIRLY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY…NW FLOW 35-40 KT ALOFT…AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

    1. Looking at charts for both Saturday and Sunday.
      Surface winds are South. 850 mb winds are West and 500 mb winds
      are NW. pretty interesting IF we get the instability and lift.
      Still a ways to go. We shall see.

      1. I would love some severe storms or just plain storms, but these write ups always always sound worse than what actually happens.

  54. That’s too bad about the weather up north, Tom. Tomorrow and Friday look good, but you’re not going until later. Katahdin at 5000 feet will be nice and cool and breezy.

    1. Indeed, beautiful the next 2 days ….

      Yeah, we’ll make do with whatever we get. For a while, rain on the camper roof is enjoyable as well.

  55. Tomorrow will see if the SPC puts any area of the northeast in a risk zone.
    I agree with you Old Salty that is ominous from NWS out of Upton especially when seeing words veering low level winds which to mean indicates possible rotating storms.

    1. hmmm 0z NAM and 0Z GFS now say NO WAY for Saturday.
      ALl the instability stays to the West, perhaps clipping your area
      but nothing doing here till perhaps at night which would mean
      garden variety if not just showers.

  56. SPC has no risk area for anyone in SNE Saturday. Will see if that changes.
    From NWS out of Taunton For Saturday
    NAM AND
    ECMWF HAVE ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER SAT
    WHILE THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE HEIGHTS RISING THRU THE DAY.
    THE EC ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL EC SOLUTIONS. OTHER
    ISSUE BECOMES HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
    AND POSSIBLE DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
    HERE GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

  57. I think the moisture and instability may not match up on Saturday as we have seen happen several times. We have not changed this pattern yet…

    New forecast has been posted!

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