Sunday Forecast Update

191 Comments

8:26AM

DAYS 1-5…
Here is an update very worth noting. I made an analogy in the comment section of the previous blog about ocean waves and fronts/troughs. To me that is always a reminder of the uncertainty in weather forecasting. The uncertainty came into play this time and now results in a shift to the news that today/tonight will be the thunderstorm threat time, and there will be not much of anything happening Monday as what is left of a cold front passes and only drops the dew point / humidity down a notch. A second cold front will be coming along Tuesday and changing my previous forecast slightly to include more cloudiness and a risk of a shower or thunderstorm later in the day or evening. Behind this front a more refreshing air mass will for the middle of the week.
TODAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon then watch for clusters of showers and thunderstorms especially Boston area north and west by early evening. Thunderstorms may be strong to severe. Highs from near 80 to South Coast to around 90 most locations. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with areas of showers and thunderstorms through midnight, with any storms possibly strong to severe. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to W 5-15 MPH overnight.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy day. Variably cloudy evening/night with a few showers/thunderstorms possible. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-65. Highs 75-85.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)…
Dry July 24-26 with pleasantly dry/warm weather to start then trending hotter and more humid over the weekend. Showers/thunderstorms possible July 27-28 with high humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29-AUGUST 2)…
Fair and warm July 29-31. Heat and humidity may build again later in the period about August 1-2.

191 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks TK. Never a good sign when you’re above 80F by 9AM… Going to be about as HHH as it gets out there today. We’ll top 90F easily, I’d expect 92-95 here.

  3. repost

    Old Salty says:
    July 19, 2015 at 8:33 AM
    I keep seeing the models showing veering winds with height

    Surface = SSW to SW
    925 MB (2600 feet) = SW to WSW
    850 MB (5000 feet) = West
    700 MB (10000 feet) = NorthWest

    Perhaps most of the veering takes place to high and there is not enough
    low level veering. Just not an expert and trying to see when we should be
    concerned and when we shouldn’t be.
    Reply
    avatarVicki says:
    July 19, 2015 at 8:34 AM
    77 with 72 DP at 8:30
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    July 19, 2015 at 8:38 AM
    Ok, the NWS discussion from about 4 hours ago have 2 scenarios.

    1. The action stays to our North closer to the NH border and the rest of Southern New England remains dry.
    2. The action develops into a mesoscale convective complex and dives Southward
    and affects most of the rest of SNE.

    If I recall, TK indicated yesterday that the main action “could” be to the North.

    Stay tuned for later updates.

    For good reading here is the link: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=on
    Reply

  4. SPC has added an enhanced risk for severe wind potential to our north and west. No tornado threat per their maps. The latest (11z) HRRR indicated several rounds of widespread convection today, even around our area. It’s so inconsistent lately though, we’ll just have to radar watch I think.

  5. SPC now has Boston in the slight risk area and to the North is now in
    an enhanced risk area.

    Old Salty says:
    July 19, 2015 at 8:33 AM
    I keep seeing the models showing veering winds with height

    Surface = SSW to SW
    925 MB (2600 feet) = SW to WSW
    850 MB (5000 feet) = West
    700 MB (10000 feet) = NorthWest

    Perhaps most of the veering takes place to high and there is not enough
    low level veering. Just not an expert and trying to see when we should be
    concerned and when we shouldn’t be.
    Reply
    avatarVicki says:
    July 19, 2015 at 8:34 AM
    77 with 72 DP at 8:30
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    July 19, 2015 at 8:38 AM
    Ok, the NWS discussion from about 4 hours ago have 2 scenarios.

    1. The action stays to our North closer to the NH border and the rest of Southern New England remains dry.
    2. The action develops into a mesoscale convection complex and dives Southward
    and affects most of the rest of SNE.

    If I recall, TK indicated yesterday that the main action “could” be to the North.

    Stay tuned for later updates.

    For good reading here is the link: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=on
    Reply

    They have tornado risk in our area virtually NILL, not even in 2%, so that is good.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif?1437311494432

  9. Hi all! Doing errands with Mom and a short walk with my son. I’ll be back by noon and take care of any questions you had and my thoughts on how things will evolve… By then I’ll have looked at all the 12z short range stuff as well.

  10. From Taunton NWS office re: later today

    RIGHT NOW WE ARE LEANING MORE ON HIGHER-RES MODELS GIVEN THEIR
    BETTER HANDLING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES. AFTER INITIAL BATCH OF
    CONVECTION TO OUR N MOVES OUT…WE WILL WATCH FOR NEW INITIATION ACROSS UPSTATE NY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. HOW THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPS/ORGANIZES WILL TELL US WHETHER WE GET ISOLATED STORMS OR LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS.

  11. No sea breeze yet, but winds along the coast are very light.
    I suspect it happens sometime between now and Noon. We shall see.

  12. So far every run of the HRRR is different regarding placement and timing
    of convection. I declare it hasn’t a clue!!! ZERO consistency. NONE whatsoever!
    How can we trust that piece of crap. Not today anyway, of all days.

    NOW casting is how we handle it.

  14. Will this be a lot of hoop la for nothing? Or will this be the real deal? I feel as though we have gone through this a gazillions times. It’s like accumulating snow in April, its bound to happen a time or 2 in a lifetime. 🙂 we wait and see, but certainly don’t watch radar every min. To much going on, it’s the weekend!! Enjoy the day folks 🙂

    1. We shall see. Someone gets rocked today, it just “May” not be anyone close
      to Boston. Although, Boston “could” get rocked. Time will tell.

  16. Feels like Florida today.
    Looks like I am going to be missing the thunderstorm action although there is a slight risk for my part of CT.

  17. Listening to the sportshub and shaunassey is on, ik os u like him, but seriously he’s so jealous and mad he has to talk Patriots in late July. He keeps trying to change it back to baseball, but the callers r calling about the Patriots. He just let out a groan. (Hilarious)

    1. And then when he does talk Patriots, he loves to put them down. It’s ok though, read him very well, I’m sure many listening can as well. It’s not pre 90’s anymore dan 🙂

      1. I don’t bother with him. There was a good discussion on 97.3 this am. Although too many think he should take a game for not turning over phone. Ridiculous. It should be obvious to even pats haters that the penalties are horribly out of whack

          1. Shank has always been somewhat bitter his writing (more than usual for a columnist). His daughter battled Leukemia and maybe that has something to do with his nature but even still….

            For baseball info I’d rather get my info from Peter Abraham (a reporter vs a columnist) or Chad Finn (a columnist).

            1. Agreed.

              Imho the Sports Hub is in danger of becoming what EEI used to be…a bunch or yellers and screamers (especially in the afternoon slot). EEI has actually come back up a notch (once again Imho) since the departure of the big show. The one big drawback to EEI is the morning show.

              1. I love listening to Lou with Fourier. Tim Benz could jump off of the Prudential for all I care. He’s USELESS and a pain in the ass. and then Dale withMichael Holly is fine. The dim witted scum bags in the morning are more than I can take!

    1. The 2 teams in the NFL that have Drones. When I was at the Harvard pilgrim 10k 2 weeks ago there were 3 or 4 drones just flying around the stadium and the entire property. I think they were showing off, but it was pretty neato

  20. Oops there it is!

    11 AM Logan Obs Temp 82 Dew 73 1Wind from 140 a t 9 knots.

    Unless there is a switch back to a land breeze, kiss 90 good bye for official Boston.

    Given the water temperature is around 67 Degrees and the sea breeze is not
    a major coolant, would the sea breeze interacting with oncoming convection
    enhance convection or limit it? Curious thought. It is rare, but I have seen
    some potent sea breeze thunder storms (or at least enhanced) around here.

    Should be interesting to see.

    1. Spectacular photo OS. Thanks for sharing

      Please tell Mrs OS I hope she can take it easy today and keep as cool as possible

    1. Wow! Frightening. Those waters are full of sharks. Looked like a great white, but I can’t be sure. Those waters are populated by whites for sure.

  27. Altocumulus castellanus clouds in central MA and southwestern NH are quite thick and well-developed, enough to have radar echoes of rain showing up. Indicates some good instability at mid levels waiting to be tapped.

      1. I think the greatest chance is Mass Pike northward at various times of today and this evening. Not leaving southern areas out entirely, just a little less risk there.

        1. Excellent. You included the pike rather than just saying north or south of pike. Thanks, TK.

          Hope you had a nice morning with your mom and son.

  28. 12:00 noon obs @ Logan:

    Temp = 85
    Dp = 72
    Wind = SE 9

    90 is still on the table if wind shifts to land breeze by mid-afternoon assuming temps don’t fall below the mid-80s. There is still tomorrow regardless.

      1. Sorry by 6:00 I’ll be out of the energy I need to push the wind that way 🙁

        I’m now rooting for a summer with no 90 in Boston. At least it will be fun to see how late we can go

  29. Every single run of the HRRR portrays the radar echoes differently.
    The latest run show NOTHING at all for Boston. 😀 😀 😀

  30. SPC updated their day 1 outlook a couple of minutes ago, but the displays
    still show this mornings update. SLOW!

    1. Ok it’s out now. Pretty much the same, perhaps expanding enhanced Westward, but not SEwrd. Also introduced 2% chance tornadoes in the enhanced area.

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif?1437323634378

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif?1437323700413

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif?1437323717062

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_hail.gif?1437323734095

  33. Subtle and not-so-subtle changes appear on the models. No longer as hot this week as we thought it would be. Yay! I think we get by with only a couple of hot days, followed by a trend towards cooler and more comfortable by the middle of the week. It looks to stay that way. What this tells me is that summer just doesn’t `want’ to get going with extended heat or heat waves. The more time passes the less of a chance for summer to get going. I’m fine with it.

    Looking at the weather reports from Baxter is not encouraging for Tom. It’s cool there and 65F, with showers predicted on and off most of the week.

    2. Actually I’m hanging with my long-standing outlook. We’ll see that yes it indeed will be fairly comfortable in the Wed-Fri period but humidity will sneak back next weekend. Not buying the cool and possibly damp weekend that some have advertised for the 25th/26th AT ALL.

      And the trends in the long term continue to be to keep the jet stream further north and more mostly flat ridge across much of the central and eastern US and eventually in the western Atlantic.

      So we’re hot and less humid Monday, warm and moderately humid Tuesday, mild to warm and dry Wednesday-Friday, warm and more humid next weekend.

  34. Hmmm did the Framingham express come early?
    Now Boston looks to hit 90 with a land breeze and up to 89 at 2PM.
    87.1 here with tons of transpiration going on from the multitude of trees in
    the Neighborhood.

  36. US National Weather Service Boston MA
    12 mins ·
    Boston hits 90 for the first time in 2015. Boston Logan Airport reached 90 degrees at 1:53 PM. the last time BOS hit 90 was 09/06/2014 w/T 92

      1. I’ve been standing on the roof with a fan blowing the hot air that way. I did such a good job that it’s only mid 80s here 🙂

    2. Finally we can put that to rest. Is today’s date #2 on the latest 90 degree day?

      #1 = 8/6/1906

      1. I “think” it is the 4th or 5th latest. Not sure about that. Trying
        to remember BBs graphic from last night.

  39. Ok, now what’s happening??????????

    Look at this CMC for tomorrow, 15 and 18Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=CAPE&hh2=030&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=027

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=CAPE&hh2=027&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=030

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=EHI&hh2=030&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=027

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=EHI&hh2=027&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=030

  40. Never hit 90F on my thermometer (88F was the maximum), but I do believe it hit 90F elsewhere in Boston, as OS reported.

    TK, you’re probably right with regard to your long-range forecast. I was just making some remarks about changes – not your changes – in the models and forecasts regarding the coming 7-10 days. There’s always a lot of uncertainty. We’ll have to wait and see.

    1. 87.1 was the highest I saw here. But we have a crap load of trees in the neighborhood, easily cutting temperature by 2-3 degrees. Happens often.
      We always have a lower temperature than the heat island that Logan can be in hot weather.

      2. REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

        So does Boston get in on the action? Probably NOT, but we shall see.

        1. From Taunton NWS office

          MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS BUT WITH PLENTY OF CAPE…SHEAR AND A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE /LOW LCL/ CANNOT
          RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST.

          METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

          1. What is LCL?

          The LCL (Lifted Condensation Level) is the pressure level a parcel of air reaches saturation by lifting the parcel from a particular pressure level. A rising parcel of air cools, thus the relative humidity increases inside a rising unsaturated parcel. Once the RH first reaches 100% in the parcel, the LCL occurs there.

          LCL height < 800 m is needed for significant tornado

          LCL forecast to be between 600 and 1400 Meters.
          SOme areas under 600 meters.

          http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/prod/rt/wrf/wrf20/2015071912/lcl.hr24.png

    1. OS, I noticed on a lot of the storm cells up north and to the west that they seem to be expanding – ahead of the heavier precip. an area of lighter precip. is forming – almost stretching out. Is that common? Does it mean anything? Thanks.

      1. Rain, I have a thought on that and I will share, but need TK
        to answer for you.

        My thought:

        I don’t think it is rain breaking out ahead of the storm, I think
        the radar from a distance is picking up moisture in the thunderstorm higher clouds as they are blown off in the jet.
        The anvil if you will and perhaps more beneath that as well.

        I could be totally and completely wrong, so I almost didn’t
        want to share. I like to be correct, but no one can be correct
        all of the time. 😀

        1. Thanks, OS. That sounds logical. But I have to say, you are right almost all of the time! 🙂

          1. You are very kind, but I don’t think so.
            It is oh so easy to be incorrect. Oh so easy.

  47. Will the storm be coming in earlier as last night I heard it was going to be overnight tonight. Thank you .

    1. John, the way this thing is developing, who knows. I haven’t a clue.
      Everything is conflicting.

      19Z HRRR has virtually NOTHING in SE MA. Here is the 1st echo I could
      find for your area and this is 5Z Or 1AM.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrrr/19/hrrr_east-us_01000_sim_radar_comp.gif

      If the HRRR is correct, SE MA, including Boston is a MISS for convection.
      Another POOFORAMA. Does not mean the HRRR is correct. We shall see.

      Main convection with HRRR moves North of us in NH and ME and SW of us
      in Western MA and CT and moves SE from there and MISSES the Boston
      area and areas to the S& E.

      We shall see.

      NOT IMPRESSED at this point, that’s for sure!!!

      Back up to 87.6 here with MORE sunshine going on.

  53. Geez Boston’s going to get screwed!!! Either my area receives the rain, and it appears most of this action will be in Nh :/

    1. Don’t count out that area yet. Threat lasts all evening. And don’t ignore the fact that I said not everyone would get hit by severe storms.

  54. Greetings from Matagamon Lake on the northeasternmost edge of Baxter State Park ….

    While you are quite hot and humid, its about 65F with a light wind and drizzle up here. Had about an inch of rain yesterday.

    So …… there’s an unpaved road, 43 miles long, that runs through Baxter State Park. Speed limit is maximum 20 mph and it takes roughly 2 and 1/2 hrs to take the road through the whole park.

    There are tent campgrounds every few miles and trails, which can run into the wilderness from .1 mile to several miles. They can bring you to scenic overlooks, lakes/ponds, or waterfalls and rivers, kind of like you might find on the Kancamangus Highway.

    Today, we went 7 miles in on the road to one of the campgrounds, where they had picnic areas and a lake area to swim, float and kayak on.

    We are camping without power, but, the campstore is here to sneak to every once in a while for a little ice cream and some wifi.

    Well, hope the weather doesnt get too severe down there …….

  55. No surprises so far…

    Though I do have people asking me where all the severe storms are. Those are the ones that didn’t actually pay attention to the discussions. 🙂 Anything new? Nope.

    2. Agreed tk I was just saying Boston got screwed and the storms or showers go south or north, the top soil even after today was moist a half inch down, which is usually not the case this time of year. 🙂

  57. Sunrise tomorrow is 5:28am and sunset is 8:14pm, we are now losing about 2 min’s per day of daylight :/

  58. So strange that those storms that were coming across the NY/ MA border were originally going ESE and then went NE. TK?

    1. OS latest HRRR run looks like it intializes well. Shows action expanding and coming down the pike and in Boston later this evening and a little to the south too. We will see.

    2. I think they are reacting to the passing short wave, but not sure.
      Also, it could be the beginnings of a mesoscale convective complex (MCC).
      Again not sure.

      In any case, wondering how/why I can see the blow off from
      these storms already??? They’re 120 miles to the West or so.

      From NWS awhile ago.

      MAIN HAZARDS ARE WIND DAMAGE AND EVEN LARGE HAIL DESPITE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. STRONG SHEAR AND FAT CAPE PROFILE IS CERTAINLY HELPING IN THAT REGARD. STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE. ALREADY SEEING ONE STORM IN E NY
      WHICH IS A RIGHT MOVER WITH STRONG ROTATION AND IS UNDER A TORNADO WARNING.

  60. HRRR shows a possible super cell in northern MA heading into northeastern MA a little later this evening.

    Last few runs have been pretty accurate after a bad start earlier.

    2. OMG I’m doubled over laughing. I just looked at the radar and came right here. I think nature is whizzing on framingham. What is that?

      Do I need to be censored?

  63. North… To expand on your comment about the storms and their travel direction:
    The initial storms were developing rapidly, and when that happens they are often developing new storm towers on the southern edge of the maturing storm tower. This gives the appearance of a more southeastward-moving cell when in fact it is just rapidly redeveloping in that direction. However, there was some west northwest flow even aloft at that time as was evident by the direction of the storm anvils. Since then, ahead of a short wave the upper winds have turned a bit more to the west southwest, so now your overall storm motion is more to the east northeast, except the cells in Maine which were still moving east to east southeast because the winds aloft were still pushing them that way further to the east.

    Another thing that has a lot to do with storm motion that you see on radar has to do with what level of the storm the radar is “seeing”. The mid and upper parts of convection can move one way while the region closer to the base is moving another way, because of differing wind directions with height.

    1. Thanks TK! Just felt some drops from those light returns on the radar. We will see if it continues to increase.

  64. Getting a little dark here and latest radar frame shows some light returns this way extending from the complex further northwest.

  68. Just sat out with grandsons. Love these nights. Easy for me to say when I can go back into AC. Always worry about those who do not have it…especially elderly and anyone whose health is compromised

  69. So much for the few drops I had of rain. Looks like it moved northeast and you have a steady downpour now Vicki.

  71. The best support has been and continues to be in central NH and southern Maine. Holy outbreak of cells there now! I wonder if that wants to become a good old MCS.

  73. Down in quincy at dq.
    Rained all the way down.
    In line and it’s raining. Have umbrells
    But the rain feels good
    Only use if iit raind harder

    1. I’ve said this before but boy you get around to many different areas. That’s great.

      1. Niece said they had thunder storms yesterday. Very unusual for CA. They were so excited they took dinner into the car and ate there

  76. Rain is much needed in most of California, so the Southern California rain is good news. Bad news in Southern California is that Napoli is starting in the game against the Angels, and Victorino, too. Both have been useless this year. If I were ownership I’d thank them for their service and release them. They have no trade value.

    It appears to be raining here now, though lightly.

    1. Macs brother and family were just here from San Francisco area. We were surprised they have very few water restrictions. They can water lawns etc a few times a week and golf courses can water once per week. He said the problem is that they cannot get the water from there to the parts that need it. Sooo odd

      1. There’s so many people that live there, if they were serving a population like here, they could water everyday 🙂

        1. They are the canary in the mine Charlie.

          Remember, they have different supplies for each area so 40MM is divided by section

    2. We don’t watch much baseball, but from what I’ve heard it’s already over, And they have basically 70 meaningless games left. 1st thing baseball should do is cut the season down to 140 games or so, and have a champion crowned in early Oct IMO. They’ve been playing for 4 months, if this was the NFL, playoffs start next week lol 🙂

  77. Barely a quick sprinkle here in Andover, was hoping for more. Looks intense to the north.

    2. Hi Emily. Sitting out at night was my favorite part. We had lots of lightening bugs. Hope you are having a perfect summer

      1. Hi Vicki!! AWWW YAY!!! I LOVE FIREFLIES!!! Those are my favorite. I am yet to see one…hopefully I will soon! I remember a number of years back…there was this huge open field near a drive-in movie theater in Maine. I was with my friends and there were fireflies all around us. I caught one. 😀 There is something childishly wonderful, fun, and exciting about those little guys. 😀

        1. Good morning Emily. It is a childhood wonder, isn’t it. My grandsons and I sit every night now and watch them. We are reading about them also. They have totally efficient cold light. And they can correograph their blinking.

  79. So late in the week CPC adjusts their 6-10/8-15 to reflect a warmer and drier regime in the Northeast, but over the weekend they let the models auto-generate this forecast with little if any tweaking from a live human being, and what does it do? Puts the outlook back to cool and wet. Smart move … NOT.

    An update will be posted in the wee hours and serve as Monday’s forecast update. Find it first thing in the morning and everybody have a great week ahead!

  80. Good morning and yawn….

    For this area, I think Yesterday was one of the biggest bustoramas in History.

    HRRR Blew Chunks yesterday. Total chunks. That model SUCKED yesterday!

  81. This surface map isn’t very old and it shows that the front is NO where near us
    yet. Boston 6AM dew point still 72. YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    It’s 6:57AM now and it is 77.2 Degrees here!!!

    Now that it’s not forecast, watch the roof get blown off later this morning. 😀 😀 😀

  82. What was left of the old front finally slipped southward and is along the South Coast now, but you won’t notice much of a difference today other than slow drying of air on a west wind.

    New blog is posted!

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