Thursday Forecast Update

80 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5…
This forecast is brought to you by the fact that there are no changes to the previous discussion at this time. But in case you don’t feel like going back to re-read it, here is a brief summary: Westerly flow, dry and warm air, and a weak trough aloft combine to make very nice weather today but along with some decorative afternoon clouds. Don’t think any showers will form this time like yesterday but will watch for it in case. By Friday, a spoke of energy will rotate around a slightly deepened trough and bring more cloudiness and a risk of a few showers along with slightly cooler air. When the weekend arrives, a narrow high pressure area will build down from the north and bring fair weather with a slight increase in humidity later Saturday and a more significant increase on Sunday ahead of a cold front. This front should hold off long enough to allow most of Sunday to be rain-free, but showers may arrive by late day or night. Shower threat for Monday as the front will be slow to cross the region.
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-85 except 70s Nantucket. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to clear. Lows 60-65 except some upper 50s interior valleys. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Highs 75-82.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Highs 77-84.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers late day or night. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-85.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 62-70. Highs 76-83.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28-AUGUST 1)…
Will watch for a disturbance passing by sometime in the middle of the period with showers and thunderstorms possible but overall a dry and very warm pattern is likely.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)…
Expect above normal temperatures near near to below normal rainfall during this period.

80 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast Update”

  4. Thank you TK

    You have another wonderful day on tap for us. Amazing summer to date, that’s for sure.

  5. Taunton NWS office still pitching doom and gloom for tomorrow….

    CONTINUED INDICATIONS PER
    CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OF A SEVERE HAIL THREAT DERIVED FROM THE 23.0Z NAM TO WHICH THE TOP ANALOG /2011.08.02/ OBSERVED SEVERE HAIL ACROSS S MAINE AND ALONG THE E-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND RAISES CONCERNS WHICH HAVE BEEN FORECAST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO WORTH NOTING IS THE INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL PROFILES PER BUFKIT PROFILES.

    Yes, perhaps, but the same alignment would need to be in place that would afford me the luxury of winning the lottery! In other words, Fat Chance. BUT because they
    word it like that, I look towards tomorrow with great interest. Would love to see
    some big hail. The largest I have ever witnessed falling from the sky was about
    quarter size. My daughter in Hopkinton saved a hailstone in the freezer from
    a few years ago that was a good 2 inches.

    1. SREF does NOT back up the NWS thinking. I do not see on NAM or GFS either.
      I don’t get it.

  6. Very little if any instablity from 6z runs of American model runs for tomorrow. SPC places a good chunk of region in general thunderstorm outlook. Sunday 6z runs of American model runs keep best instability far western parts of SNE.

  7. I love hail. Mostly just because we hardly ever see it. I’ve only seen it maybe 2 or 3 times, and never more than pea size. Days like tomorrow (or what the NWS is making tomorrow out to be, I should say) are some of my favorite. I remember one like it last summer, which was one of those occasions where I briefly saw some hail.

    To me, it looks like central New England is a better bet for this potential tomorrow, but perhaps into eastern MA as well.

  9. Does anyone know of a computer model that provides the probability of hail and/or severe hail? They must be out there. I couldn’t find it on the SREF, but I swear I have seen it somewhere. Thanks

    1. I totally agree. Any talk of possible severe weather that many days ahead
      is a waste of time. Let’s get a little closer first.

      I still don’t know what’s up with tomorrow.

  14. 12z NAM Instablity for tomorrow. Not Impressive
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. No, but with very chilly air above and large lapse rates, that might be enough.
      Will continue to monitor.

  15. 12Z NAM shows some instability around 6-8PM tomorrow in Eastern MA.
    Composite radar shows echoes in the 7-8 PM time frame.

    Seriously, almost all of the action tomorrow is UP North. Only a bit for Eastern
    MA.

    I am NOT impressed for much tomorrow. Perhaps that will change.

    We shall see. 😀

    1. Os speaking of hail, it is absolutely amazing!! I had just moved to Dallas in 1999 and was lucky enough to hold baseball size hail. I did not see it fall, but still. We actually heard it on the radio, and it was only 5-6 miles away so we drove to the area, and there it was in the lawns. Truly amazing!!! I witnessed straight line winds of 90mph that was about 3 min’s ahead of a severe line of storms that was also truly amazing. Totally calm to instant trees just bending over, while leaves just being stripped bare in seconds. Loved it!! 🙂

  17. New drought monitor was released today. No changes- with the exception of the “abnormally dry” Cape/Islands, the state is drought free. Times are changing, however. Been out mowing the lawn, and was very surprised at how dry and dusty everything is, about as bad as I’ve seen it. We’re certainly drier than normal here, even after going wetter than normal along with most other places a couple weeks ago. And with a hot and dry pattern looking likely for the next 7-10 days, the pendulum is now swinging back the other way- look for drought to start re-expanding on those maps in the next couple updates. Obviously it can get very localized this time of year with the way summer showers and storms work, but in general dry will be the trend. And coupled with potential 90+ degree heat, next week may be a region-wide lawn killer.

    1. The lawns look great!!! Perfect summer for lawns thus far. There’s only about 3 or so weeks left of high sun angle to cause some heat and or drought stress. Betting against that though. Once we get to late Aug the lawns begin recovering. 🙂

      1. Agree on that, kind of meant to add that even if lawns brown up next week, we had a pretty good run this year anyway. Next week should put them under pressure though.

  19. Latest discussion from Taunton NWS EXACTLY the same as this morning.

    I HATE HATE HATE HATE it they don’t update anything but current
    conditions with these updates. PATHETIC. DON’T BOTHER with an update
    if going to spit out the same CRAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  20. Latest 15Z SREF gives us 500-750 Joules for CAPE tomorrow along with
    Lifted Index of about -2 perhaps -3 Max. Spits out 1/2 inch of qpf.
    Thunderstorm probability of about 30%. Severe t-storm prob under 10%.

  23. 18Z NAM gives most instability around 89PM tomorrow

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015072318&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=030

    Also show WIDESPREAD convection starting at 20Z

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015072318&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=026

    Continuing until 1Z

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015072318&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=031

    Only about 2 10ths total

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015072318&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=031

  24. I used to think very highly of our local NWS- and I’ve no doubt there are some great forecasters there, especially for winter storms- but watching them continually over-hype these “thunderstorm” events is getting old, fast. Whoever wrote this afternoon’s discussion is a clown.

    GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS COLD AIR ALOFT THE MAIN THREATS WITH
    THUNDERSTORM TOMORROW WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ONE OR TWO
    OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS /1 INCH HAIL AND-
    OR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 57 MPH/. IN ADDITION GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
    OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF A COLD AIR FUNNEL.
    FURTHERMORE…IF SEABREEZE BOUNDARY PROVIDES ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
    AND ADVECTS HIGHER DEW PT AIR/LOWER LCLS…ISOLATED COLD AIR FUNNEL
    MAY BE ABLE TO EXTEND DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE FOR A WEAK ISOLATE
    TORNADO AND/OR WATERSPOUT /NOW WITH OCEAN TEMPS INTO THE L70S.

    Seriously???? A tornado threat tomorrow?? As OS would say, and I’m Santa Claus. That’s absurd to put in a forecast discussion for an event like this. Can it happen? Sure, there’s like a 1 in 1000 chance, maybe even longer odds than that. But something of that low a probability should never enter one of these discussions.

    1. Wx Watcher. We actually had a mini outbreak of Cold Air funnels sometime
      in the 90s. They were confined mostly to SE MA and the Cape even. Most
      around the canal. Of all things, IF I remember correctly, they occurred in the
      month of March (late March after equinox). I was working in Canton at
      the time and could see the cloud tops to the South East. I wanted one to form
      up this way, but no cigar.

      So the wording is sensational, but it is not without precedence and even so,
      I totally agree with your assessment and since you are now Santa Claus,
      I am the EASTER BUNNY!!!!

      1. 🙂 🙂

        Interesting about the cold air funnel event in the 90s, I had never heard of that, perhaps TK could comment. I think I do remember one instance a couple years back where a well photographed one formed somewhere around here, may have even touched down.

            1. I have a pic on FB of a funky funnel thing I took in Dec 2013. It reminds me of,the one over arlington but there was blue sky that day. TK?

              Either way this is a great discussion with great links. Thanks OS and Wx

  25. Updating thinking…

    Some potent storms are possible tomorrow. Not talking about a severe storm outbreak. What I mean is there could be some cells that get strong enough to cause brief strong winds, and we have a pretty good shot at hail from some of them. They would probably not be big lightning producers, but yet the threat will be there.

    I know earlier I indicated positivity about the weekend and I’m not so sure now… Not that I am expecting a bad weekend, but it’s going to have some issues with the upper low being closer-by than I originally thought on Saturday, and a more active warm front possible on Sunday.

  26. We just found out our poor black lab has lymphoma. He is only 6. We will find out why type and treatment options tomorrow. What a kick in the gut. I was never a dog or pet person. My wife actually wanted him so I agreed. It didn’t take long for me to fall for him. He is such a smart dog. He goes the bathroom in a 5×5 area that I roped off for him. I’m such a sap!

    2. I’m so sorry Coastal 🙁 I’d be devastated. I really hope the treatments can save him. Sending positive thoughts your way

    3. So sorry to hear that Coastal. Hoping for the best when you meet with the Doctor. They really become a very big part of the family.

    5. My dog was 4 1/2 yrs old when I found out last fall she was born with one kidney and the one she had was in failure. Broke my heart as this dog loved me and always was waiting at the door when I got home from work. Wishing you the best as I’ve been there and it sucks.

    6. So sorry to hear that. Let’s hope for the best. I know you will all do whatever you can to make the dog as comfortable as possible.

  29. Coastal, I am sorry to hear about your dog. The type of lymphoma will likely matter in terms of life expectancy and treatment.

    Take care.

  30. Tk,

    You commented about tomorrow without a word on “cold air funnels”???????

    How about a thought or 2?

    Thanks

    1. Sorry about that. I’m limited on my mobile access for a few days so I miss some messages. I’ll have to go back and check.

  31. 18z GFS more aggressive than 18z NAM for Sunday
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=072&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=LI&hh=072&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=072&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. Notice the ehi on that.
      It is high for gfs standards.
      Probably reflecting some helicity
      In vicinity of warm front.

      We shall see.

  32. TK was hinting in earlier comment about a possible more active warm front on Sunday. I would say the 18z GFS is showing a POTENTIAL active warm front. You COULD get some severe storms with a warm front doesn’t always come with a cold front.

  33. I don’t recall the cold air funnel outbreak in the 1990s, but I can check with my colleague later. He’s visiting Mr. Burbank at the moment and I’m heading out soon so I’ll check later.

    Those types of funnels can form any time of year under the right conditions. All they really are formed by is just localized wind shear near the cloud base acting on rising air. Any instances of them being well developed enough to reach the ground would be extremely rare.

    1. Tk I’m now going to be in Hampton till Tuesday is it not looking so good for the beach.

      2. Saturday… Mostly cloudy. High about 72.
        Sunday… Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers. High about 72.
        Monday… Partly sunny. Risk of a t-storm. High about 78.
        Tuesday…Mostly sunny. High about 85.

      1. I’ll check. My contact has every documented tornado in US history in a collection.

  34. Napoli homers and they get a 2 out rally going for once only to have Hannigan try to score on a single from second and gets thrown out at the plate. The story of the season.

    1. Lol We are always, or mostly watching NFL network, they r always talking Patriots, whether it’s the penalty on Brady, or how many wins will the Patriots have. 🙂

  36. NWS has removed talk of “Cold Air Funnels”, but still are pitching severe weather.

    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
    ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY-EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL THREATS OF ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING: FREQUENT LIGHTNING / SMALL TO SEVERE-SIZE HAIL OF 1-INCH OR GREATER / STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING DAMAGING. WILL PREVAIL SUCH THREATS IN THE FORECAST. WHILE THREATS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER N- AND E-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND…PARTICULAR FOCUS IS UPON E MASSACHUSETTS ALONG AN
    ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR RESULTING IN GREATER
    INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

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