Sunday Forecast Update

133 Comments

8:31AM
1:47PM UPDATE

DAYS 1-5…
Updated the original morning post based on new info which is going to prompt me to increase the area of risk for showers/t-storms Monday and add some to Tuesday’s forecast as well, as it appears the cold frontal boundary which arrives Sunday night becomes stationary and only slowly dissipates though Tuesday. Therefore, there will be enough focus around for some activity.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms early through mid morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s, a few lower 80s possible interior with any sun. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Lows 65-72. Highs 86-93.
WEDNESDAY: Hazy sun. Lows 67-74. Highs 88-95.
THURSDAY: Hazy sun. Chance of thunderstorms evening/night. Lows 70-77. Highs 90-97.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31-AUGUST 4)…
Dry and very warm July 31-August 1. Humid with showers/thunderstorms possible at times August 2-4.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)…
Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal.

133 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast Update”

  1. JJ’s links…

    SPC has us in general thunderstorm outlook today.
    6z NAM for today
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=012&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=015
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    Sorry that was GFS above from 6z run here is 6z NAM
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  2. Thank you TK for your update

    I felt the increase in humidity when I woke up. Overall looking like a nice day

  4. Morning, thanks Tk. How is it looking for Hampton today it’s very cool and raining now. Here till Tuesday but today is the only full day I’m here because my wife I leaving early tomorrow afternoon for a wake tomorrow night. Son is going fishing tomorrow . Thanks.

    1. With a little luck we’ll break out into some partial sun and muggy warmth. But any of that could fuel a few t-storms.

    1. ..NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN NY…
      AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT…THE AIR MASS SHOULD AT LEAST MODESTLY
      DESTABILIZE INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THICKER CLOUD COVER
      AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. WHILE LARGER-SCALE FORCING
      WILL BE WEAK/NEBULOUS…AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
      SHOULD REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON…WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS
      POSSIBLE AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. RELATIVELY WEAK
      DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /20-30 KT EFFECTIVE/ AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
      SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL…BUT SOME STRONGER WIND
      GUSTS/MARGINAL HAIL WILL NONETHELESS BE POSSIBLE THIS
      AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

  8. From the HRRR

    Although 0-1KM helicity is realtively low as surface winds and 925 mb winds
    are essentially the same from the S or SSW pretty much. They start veering more Westerly at 850 MB and more NW at 700 and then 500MB.

    Therefore the 0-3KM helicity is actually quite high.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrrr/12/hrrr_east-us_00600_helicity_3km.gif

    I believe there is more of a tornado threat with the lower level helicity which is not
    present. Very interesting just the same.

    Not sure what the higher level helicity does?

    1. SRH = Storm-Relative Helicity. SRH is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1 and 3 km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. However, larger values of 0-3 km SRH (greater than 250 m2s-2) and 0-1 km SRH (greater than 100 m2s-2) do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger is generally better, but there are no clear “boundaries” between nontornadic and significant tornadic supercells.

  9. OS (and anyone else interested)…

    I put out a query to my long time weather friend, who I leave nameless on the blog unless he wishes otherwise. But he gave me the following information regarding what was originally termed a cold air funnel outbreak in the 1990s. The event was actually not cold air funnels at all, but regular landspout/waterspout type funnels from towering cumulus clouds along a convergence zone in east central and southeastern MA. The date was August 20 1997. There were numerous funnel cloud reports, a couple of water spouts offshore, and one confirmed weak tornado touchdown in Plymouth MA. Most of this occurred with only moderate rain showers in the area, although Norwood MA did report thunder for a brief time.

    1. Great place…great food. I’m only a mile and a half away and don’t get there nearly often enough.

  12. FYI, Barry Burbank has written an excellent blog over on the WBZ TV web page. He goes into what next Summer may be like based on past history of Summers following El Nino events. This is something we have chatted a little about here and he gives a great explanation. Go check it out! I left a comment for him there. I don’t comment on that blog as much as I used to.

    1. I think that was hot for next summer correct, I would love that .I think this summer so far has been decent for the most part but it’s way to chilly today at least here at the beach in Hampton. I’m really curious regarding the snow for this upcoming winter with El Niño .

    1. Best support for storms today is in south central NH mid to late afternoon.

      Tonight, only isolated stuff.

      Tomorrow, it’s southern New England that may see storms and I’m going to update my forecast to increase the chance a bit.

      Also going to add isolated storms to Tuesday’s forecast as the boundary hangs around!

  15. Thank you, TK. Your forecasting has been spot on as they British would say. I’m not liking what I’m seeing the coming 10 days, but there’s nothing I can do about it. I’ve had the windows open for days now to try and freshen up the place before a torrid stretch of HHH comes rolling in. I do think it’ll feel oppressive, especially in light of the relatively HHH-free summer we’ve had.

    1. Thanks for your compliment!

      I think the HHH of Tue-Thu gets replaced by BHD (bright, hot, dry) Friday-Saturday.

  16. I am out and about.
    Yuck!!!
    Humid
    Sun is coming out. When not out
    It is coming through anyway.
    Fuel or not
    Hrrr has 2-3000 joules of cape

  17. 69 dew point at Logan as of 11. Feels like 70+ now. It’s horrific out there.
    Absolute SOUP!

  18. Not for nothing, but 12Z NAM shows NO PRECIP in the area for the rest
    of the day. Can that be correct?

    1. On the other hand, the latest HRRR shows scattered convection all over all
      day, including Boston.

  19. Well it looks like the HRRR is freakin JOKE AGAIN TODAY!!!

    Just looked at the radar simulation for NOON from the 15Z latest run.
    Ha ha ha ha the comparison is laughable! Totally!!!

    Let’s see IF it can get on track or not.

  21. I edited the original post from this morning to make a few changes to the short discussion and add coverage area to showers and thunderstorms Monday, as well as add a chance for some pop up showers/storms Tuesday. The remainder of the forecast is unchanged at this time.

      1. The one just north of me? I figure it won’t be anything here but just enough to rob energy for more.

  23. Took a break from yard work. Wow is it humid, or at least so it seems when doing
    outside work. Devouring a bottle of water before returning outside to cut the lawn.
    YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKK!!!!

  24. The radar is lit up like a Christmas Tree, there is so much convection out there!
    NOT! 😀 😆

  25. Some firing North of Springfield. They are new and nothing special at this point.
    We shall see what happens with that and any other convection that may or may not
    pop. In any case, don’t see any concerns at all at this point.

    1. I believe that area of storms sorta blossoms and moved eastward later tonight, will see 🙂

    1. Are you kidding? Watch those suckers DIE when the sun starts to go down.
      Even so, they’re moving well South of our area anyway. So there ya go.

  28. Convection is just too isolated. Just not much cooking out there.
    A pop up here and there is all.

    All of this talk from the chicken little NWS about strong to severe storms and possible
    tornadoes…..
    Blah blah blah blah……. They really need to re-evaluate their operation down there.

    It’s getting pretty PATHETIC!!! No one is going to listen to them. No one!

  29. Boston’s been spared of storms and rain for the most part. It seems that every time there’s a threat it goes by the boards. But, we do need rain. We’re more than an inch-and-a-half below normal for July, and we were already in drought territory when the month began. With the hot stretch coming, plants, trees, and crops will suffer without some water.

    1. The sudbury river is nearly nonexistent again. This reminds me of a good deal of early winter. What we think will develop goes poof.

      1. Indeed. TK keeps reminding us of below normal rainfall in his forecasts. Yet, other forecasts keep overestimating our chances of precipitation. Look for wildfires next weekend in the eastern part of the state if the drier heat starts impacting the region.

  30. I’m in agreement with OS about the NWS. While it’s prudent to warn, it has seemed that virtually every warning in recent weeks has been followed by practically zilch. And, looking at the forecast radar loops last night on several stations, Boston never got into much action, even in the forecast radar loops. This is what calls into question NWS decision-making.

    This said, I do understand the hit-or-miss nature of storms. So, naturally we all need to put our guard up to some degree.

  32. The cells that develop are small, and there aren’t many of them in the eastern half of the state. Different story in our neighboring states to the north and also New York. But, Boston and vicinity have barely gotten anything in recent weeks. I’d be surprised if any make it to Boston this evening. Then, once more we’d be left `high and dry.’

    1. Agree. Boston won’t see a DROP today and tonight, imho.
      None tomorrow, Tuesday or Wednesday (none forecast for Wed). Next shot would be Thursday and my guess is Boston is SHUT OUT again even then.
      We shall see.

  33. A couple of decent storms out South Of Albany, NW of Poughkeepsie and near
    Binghamton all in NY.

  35. Very typical, everyone repeats what the news,model,spc, nws etc, and then gets mad, it’s happen every single time, ok 99.9% of the time. Os I think most take weather forecasters with a grain of salt, no disrespect to anyone or any forecaster, or tk. It’s just the truth. I still believe storms in New York will move eastward towards us, arriving late tonight. 🙂

    2. Charlie I believe intelligent folks parse the information and have a clear understanding based on that. They also understand the mets, as I’ve said dozens of times, have marching orders from network brass. The mets can get it wrong. However, in an equal number of cases, the person reading or watching the forecast does as well. Heck, if we based everything on the Charlie hole which sometimes is a figment and other times not so much, we would never have weather in MA. 🙂

  36. Os i saw that. That was the same storm that came over me. Ping pong size hail with that storm according to nws.

      1. I didn’t see any hail. The storm wasn’t as strong when it went over me. But the severe thubderstorm warning states that there will be ping ponf size hail. I wish i havr known it will intensify, i would have chased it to see the hail

        1. Thanks Kane. I didn’t realize that storm was warned.
          It was intense for a brief period which could have produced
          the wind and hail. Honestly, I’d be surprised if there
          any 60 mph wind reports/damage. We shall see.

          1. In typical fashion, the NWS “usually” over cooks
            Storm impacts with these warnings. Not unlike the NAM over cooking Qpf anytime or snow fall in the Winter.

        2. Wouldn’t that have been fun. Oven ever chased a storm. Have you? I’d love it.

          And hi Kane. Nice to see you here 🙂

          1. Yea 1 inch hail was reported in peabody, i have only seen hail 3 times my whole life ao my mission is to see little more lol. And thanks vicki, likewise!

  38. Seriously great summer weekend again. Kids headed To Humarock….again…and said it was great there also.

  39. Now we have a Choo Choo, sorry, I mean a train of cells from SW NH near VT Border
    ALL the way to NE MA, which is also North of the “No Storm” Zone. 😀

  42. That storm you mentioned Vicki has a severe thunderstorm warning on it and a history of producing wind damage. Its approaching the Springfield area.

  43. Warning is up until 7pm on that storm and will see if NWS out of Taunton extends the warning to locations further east. It looked stronger when it was in southern Berkshire County.

    1. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
      SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…
      CENTRAL HAMPDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…

      * UNTIL 745 PM EDT

      1. Same impacts as the previously warned storm. 60 mph winds,
        quarter size hail. (3/4 inch sub severe hail)

  44. FWIW, latest HRRR takes those storms near Springfield and slowly weakens them
    and moves them SE into CT and then RI in a weakened state.

    1. They are weakening for sure. Just the northern tip seems to be maintaining but no warning. Seems they are moving more northeast.

  46. And there they go. Nice forecasting, OS and Joshua.

    I was so hoping Charlie would be right.

  48. When was the last time Boston saw any thunder and lightning? I remember a couple of good claps last winter and maybe early spring, but that’s about it!

    1. We have not had a lot of severe weather here in SNE this year other than the 23rd of June when two EF 0 tornadoes touch
      down in MA and a microburst affected parts of Southern CT that same day.

  49. Charlie…there was a reason that I forecast “isolated” showers/storms this afternoon. That’s what was expected. That’s what we had. Most areas were not going to see anything. Some of the areas that did see something probably would have at least a decent downpour and maybe some hail and lightning. The problem is, a lot of people hear the word “thunderstorms” in the forecast and they don’t realize that there are other words to describe what is actually going to happen.

  50. I took a ride with my son late this afternoon up the old route 1 to see what might form there. The isolated cell that hit the North Shore presented a nice flat base and was in updraft-only mode as it passed right across where I was driving. I then got to view the cell for a short while from the north side before it was obscured by some lower clouds.

    1. Lucky son!
      That’s my idea of a great Sunday drive – not the boring drives I remember on a clear sunny day! 🙂

    2. I haven’t been on the old Rt 1 for years. What a great roadtrip. We miss too much on the new highways.

  51. Air mass storms in NY will fade in the next 2 hours before they make it to the NY/MA border.

    1. No. It’s very unstable overnight. I just followed a storm that developed just east of me toward Wakefield then watched it head toward the coast north of Boston. There will be others around.

      1. Right there with u tk. I was following along eoute 128 hoping to see hail but the brunt of it went south. My friend couldnt confirm but he though he heard hail in salem

  54. Hail. Gotta be small but that isn’t liquid hitting AC and skylight. May be in long shots area

        1. Oh wow. Looking at the radar, i thought the storm went to your north. I have only seen hail 3 times, i was hoping to see some tonight but no luck

          1. Kane the storm went to our north. The rain and little hail we had was well after the system went by. I don’t know if there was a smaller system after the first. I have minimal Internet service in the house when we do not have power so couldn’t access the radar. Sadly, we got power back in a couple of hours 🙁

  55. Well, we didnt see this in Maine 🙂

    Training of thunderstorms over Marshfield with sudden regeneration of lightning/thunder.

  56. Had to close windows around 1:15 AM as it was pouring with, of all things, thunder
    and lightning!! Can’t get one during the day, so we get one overnight. Amazing.
    Nothing even remotely severe, but a T-storm none-the-less. So what is in store
    for today?

    1. NWS expected scattered to widespread thunderstorm activity today.

      FWIW, the latest HRRR does NOT show much activity around today at all.
      Some convection around or about 21Z. We shall see. This model has SUCKED
      lately.

  57. So far, SPC has us in General thunderstorm risk for today and Marginal risk
    for severe tomorrow. We shall see if that changes.

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