Wednesday Forecast Update

112 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5…
No changes to previous discussion regarding today into the weekend. To summarize, the heat is on today and Thursday. The chance of any thunderstorms is so minimal today and I don’t think it will happen in the forecast area so it won’t appear in the forecast. Thursday, on the other hand, the chance increases later in the day and especially evening as a cold front approaches. I’m still not convinced everybody gets hit tomorrow. It will depend on timing, development, orientation, and movement of cluster or line storms. More on that later. Quite muggy the next 2 days, less humidity Friday and Saturday before it creeps back in Sunday but with mainly dry weather Friday through the weekend other than a risk of an isolated storm in a few locations on the weekend, especially Sunday.
TODAY: Hazy sunshine. Humid. Highs 88-95. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear and hazy. Muggy. Lows 68-75. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Chance of late day and nighttime t-storms. Humid. Lows 68-75. Highs 88-95.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Lows 65-72. Highs 85-92.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 63-70. Highs 86-93.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. More humid. Risk of isolated thunderstorms. Lows 65-72. Highs 87-94.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)…
Warm and humid with a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms August 3-5. Dry, warm, less humid by August 6. Humidity returns at the end of the period with a risk of showers.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)…
Ridges of high pressure in the central US and off the East Coast with a very weak trough between them will be the dominant pattern. Near normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures result.

112 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast Update”

  2. Thanks TK.
    From SPC tomorrow as they have us in marginal risk. This will be updated around 1:30 pm today
    NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND…
    ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
    ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY…WEAK TO MODERATE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED AS A
    LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION
    THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER/WIDELY SCATTERED
    PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
    FRONT…BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE
    BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
    DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS SPANNING EASTERN PA/NJ INTO
    EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
    OCCURS…ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE DAY /30-35 KT WITH
    STRONGER SHEAR ARRIVING AT NIGHT/ WILL SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM
    MODES INCLUDING MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY A
    DAMAGING-WIND RISK. PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
    REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR THE POSSIBILITY A CATEGORICAL
    SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE.

  3. Thank you for the update TK.

    As it gets closer, can you keep me advised on the weather for 8/15.
    Big day for our family. Many thanks

    I concur with what Joshua said on the previous blog. TK your style is excellent.
    I wish more mets would adopt it.

    re: Tomorrow
    Not excited at this point. Perhaps it will change. No matter what happens, I’ll probably miss it. We’ll be down the Cape at Harwichport and won’t be driving
    home until 9-10 PM. Perhaps we’ll run through some showers or dying storms, but
    I don’t expect to see much unless it ends up an unusual situation.

  5. I am curious if there will be an upgrade to a slight risk as SPC indicated in last part of their discussion. SPC doesn’t blow things out of proportions.

      1. How’s the shear out there with an ongoing El Nino??

        I am quite surprised that we have a “possible” Cape Verde
        system this season.

        1. With my luck it will develop into a Monster and
          be a direct hit on us on let me see, when is a bad date.
          Oh yeah, 8/15 !!!!!!

        2. I’m not sure about the shear out in that part of the tropics, but I have seen that the shear in the Carribean has been reported to be “January like” and I saw on TWC that Saharan dust was prominent out in the central Atlantic.

          1. Ok, that’s what I thought. Then even if something
            struggles and get’s going, it’s likely to die out
            there. GOOD!

  9. Just had a quick look at the models for tomorrow.
    Frankly, I am not impressed at all. Cape values do not wow me at all.
    SREF severe parameters not impressive at all. I am surprised the SPC even placed
    us in a marginal risk. Of course, this could change, but right now big woof.

  11. Yesterday they had the marginal risk in western parts of SNE. Today it expanded to include more SNE. This will update around 1:30 pm. I pay more attention to SPC when it comes to thunderstorms than Taunton.

    1. Taunton is USELESS in my opinion. You have to take everything they say
      with a grain of salt. I agree, the SPC is more real when it comes to thunderstorms, even if a bit conservative.

  12. Extremely warm airmass, very light onshore winds …… I wonder if the Boston Harbor Buoy takes a run at 75F, for a water temp, this afternoon in the 2 to 7 pm timeframe.

    1. Current temperatures:

      Boston Buoy – 68.4
      Stellwagen – 64

      Logan winds at 8AM Variable at 3 knots. That sure looks like a Sea breeze
      is due. Plymouth from 300 degrees at 3 knots.

      Unless a land breeze kicks up, you are correct.

      75? I think that might be pushing it, but I suppose it is possible.

      My guess is 71-73 tops. We shall see.

  14. Boston has a SEA BREEZE already at 9AM.

    Temp 81, Dew 68, Wind from 130 at 4 knots

    We shall see IF that wind gets stronger OR reverts back to a land breeze.

    Here’s a thought. Any possible convection along a Sea Breeze front today?

  15. Buoys as of 9:50 AM this morning:

    Boston Buoy: 70.00 Degrees
    Stellwagen Buoy: 65.0 Degrees

    Long way to go. Tom’s 75 degrees perhaps is in the cards???

  17. Gradient strengthens during the day enough to eventually do away with any sea breeze at Boston. Insufficient lift for any convection.

    1. Pretty much what I thought.

      What happened to the “possibility” of something breaking through the CAP
      and the “watch out”. No longer in the cards, I take it.

      Is there anything to tomorrow? Just doesn’t look like much right now.

    1. You mean the Brady Debacle?

      The NFL office is a JOKE. GOODELL is an ASS!

      I hope Brady is vindicated and Goodell loses his job!!! yes yes yes and more yes!

      1. I do not like to generalize. I am positive, however, I do on occasion without being aware. This time I am very aware. No one…I repeat no one…can look at the information in the report, compare previous penalties, compare previous reductions, can listen to what Kraft said this morning and not see this for the lunacy of what the NFL is and the very calculated means that they have conducted this witch hunt.

          1. It is on BZ and probably on most. He apologized to the fans, explained what he had hoped to accomplish in May and said he had been wrong. Takes a big man to say he was wrong and apologize IMHO

  20. 12z NAM for tomorrow. I think we could cut this down some
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=033&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=030
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  21. This is one of those few days where …….

    Very warm airmass + warm SST + lightness of the seabreeze = still toasty coastal temps

    Most of the Cape is in the 80s, Nantucket touched 86F an hour ago. Logan’s up to 85F.

    The sun has that magnifying glass feeling today.

  23. I am not a Patriots fan as all of you know but enough with this. I am tired of hearing about it. Lets start talking on the field stuff with training camp opening this week. Unfortunately this story is far from over.

    1. The unfortunate part, JJ, is that the legacy of one of the greatest QBs in NFL history is being tarnished in some sort of twisted game. It is hard not to discuss. I do wish we could just let it go. Sorry for bringing it here. I’d like to promise I wont in the future but not sure I’d be able to honor that promise 🙁 Thank you for your comment as it is very fair and honest.

      1. That where ultimately I could care less about tarnished etc etc, the patriots are 4 time champions, that’s what truly matters and the ultimate goal, to make the point, garrapolo has been to more playoff games, and has more rings than romo, and that’s the truth. Brady is either the best ever QB in NFL history, or a top 2. 🙂

        1. You make a good point but this always going to come up when talking about Brady and his legacy.
          You look at the Patriots this isn’t the first time they have been caught cheating. Spy gate video taping the Rams
          walk through the day before the Super Bowl.

            1. See most of the media reporting makes stuff up, but then ends up being false. Kinda like 11 out of the 12 were under inflated by at least 2psi that everyone believes, again, “not true”

          2. That had nothing to do with Brady though and has nothing to do with Brady’s legacy. And it will come up from those who will hate Brady no matter what and they just do not matter.

  24. Your right Vicki when we look back on his career this will be looked at as part of his legacy.
    Lets not forget the loss of a first round draft pick next year’s draft is big.

    1. That is part of this mess. I do not believe anyone can look at that as being rational either. The report specifically states no one on the Pats team or organization did anything wrong other than Brady yet they gave the pats the biggest penalty in the history of the NFL. This is about far more than psi. It is about stopping a team that cannot be stopped on the field honestly IMHO.

  25. Belated thanks, TK, for your weather forecast.

    I have a question concerning seabreezes. I always thought of this as a spring (and usually early spring) phenomenon. It appears that seabreezes have kicked in several times this month. Is this a frequently observed phenomenon in July?

    Over at the NFL, and throughout most of the country, there is a 1680 Salem vibe. Next thing you know, when Tom returns he’ll be required to wear a scarlet D for deflation. I think the league and the networks are suspicious and envious of intellect and success. I have heard some of the dumbest commentary on deflategate from numerous pundits. No balance. No perspective. No mention of issues that really matter like concussions and death/dementia/suicide, wife and girlfriend battering, performance enhancing drugs, assault and battery of police officers, noise piped into stadiums, bounties placed on players for injuring them, sticky adhesive used not just by Jerry Rice (who admitted to it) but other receivers as well, the list goes on and on. Instead of relevant matters to the future of football and the “integrity” of the game and its players as role models for the youth of America, we get an obsessive focus on the purported deflation of footballs below the minimum psi. As I said, I do not exonerate Tom Brady. He mishandled the case. But, this vindictive witch hunt is almost Maoist at its Cultural Revolutionary core: The chorus of `red guards’ represented by commentators, NFL leadership, and national pundits who have this holier than thou attitude and seek to purge the ranks by eliminating the source of impurity: The New England Patriots.

    1. Yes they are common through mid Summer and are driven by temperature differences between land and ocean as well as overall strength of the gradient wind.

  26. Curious about the current drought status. Aside from a couple very isolated storms, it’s very dry out there, especially in SE MA where those storms have not occurred. Lawns are taking a beating.

      1. Seems like unless we see some kind of tropical activity up here that will continue to be the case

    2. My well known by now Sudbury River is literally mud in the area I keep an eye on. I would think it has to be creeping back.

  27. Can anyone on here honestly say they think Brady and co. did absolutely nothing wrong and had no involvement? Regardless of penalty, regardless of circumstantial evidence, I have believed since day 1 “something” happened. That’s the only commentary I have, lol.

    1. He pushed the envelope like every QB, he’s still 1 of the best ever to play, he’s the biggest sports athlete Boston and New England had ever had. 🙂

    2. I’m with you Ace …….

      The weather anology would be to without access to modern models …… and outside …….. seeing increasing clouds, a dramatically falling barometer and the wind coming around to east …… and then use that to say that fair weather and high pressure are due the next several hours …….

      1. I am not convinced he did anything wrong and IF anything
        was done, it was nothing that ALL other quarterbacks don’t do.

        So either way, Brady is getting SCREWED BIG TIME! IT sucks!
        It is not right!!!

        1. I’m with you. There is absolutely nothing anywhere that says Brady did a thing. Not sure how others feel but saying someone did something using some sort of gut feeling doesn’t work for me.

    3. The bottom line is this, it is very simple….

      Truth:
      Brady did nothing different than any other QB that plays today or in the past.

      Truth:
      When your #1 (A football god) everyone will try to knock you down.

      Its a none story if it was anyone else. Enough of the phone talk, no one in there right mind would hand there personal phone over to there boss. Especially a boss that cant be trusted to keep personal information to themselves.

      Haters!

      Moving on!

    4. I agree that the penalties handed down are ridiculous and excessive …..

      I guess though, I perceive that some in New England think Brady is completely innocent here and I am of the opinion that he is not.

      I think the idea of TB pushing the envelope and that other QB’s do it hits the nail on the head.

      But, when you are the best and no one can bring you down on the field, well then, yes, human nature and human history being what it is, people will find any way to do it. I agree with all that.

      But, to Ace’s original point, I dont truly believe TB12 is completely innocent here.

        2. I cant give you any facts (I answered your question) …..

          What happened? Give me some scenario that explains all of this …….

          1. Brady was furious when the balls were overinflated at Jets game. He gave ball boys what for…admittedly and documented. He made it clear he wanted balls at lowest psi. It was clear in their txts that they were ticked at him. Scientists, including an Nobel prize winning scientist, have said it is a fact that balls would deflate 1.5-2 psi coming from hot to cold. Remember, three of,the four colts balls were below 12.5 by one gauge. The one that wasnt was totally inconsistent with how that gauge measured every other ball. Numbers are in report and you as a math teacher will see the inconsistency ASAP.

              1. And I yours, Sir Thomas :). I will be the first to say I am wrong if I am about him. I won’t change my mind about the unfair and deliberate actions of the NFL and Goodell.

    5. Ace…I can so I’ll ask you the same. Where is any proof anywhere that those who think he did are basing it on

  29. He did something but not to warrant a 4 game suspension. His biggest issue now is the destruction of the cell phone. That’s all people are going to hear around the country. And that he didn’t destroy his previous phone.

    1. Not sure what to make of that. It was certainly ill-advised but should have
      NOTHING to do with any court proceedings. Court should be concentrating
      on the procedure and was the hearing/punishment Fair. Given that, hopefully
      he obtains an injunction. There is no guarantee even of that.

      What I am concerned about is that I have heard lawyers talking about that
      phone issue. Whether or not the phone has anything to do with the case,
      a Judge might not look on that too kindly. It could actually prevent him
      from obtaining the injunction.

      I just hope it all works out for the best.

    2. Ahhhh but there is not an ounce of proof he did anything, Hadi. You’ll have to give me facts.

    1. Of course. You didn’t think it was going to be moved Eastward did you?
      And certainly NOT be changed to “Slight” 😀

  32. Nothing impressive tomorrow for storms. Maybe an isolated strong to marginally severe storm somewhere in SNE tomorrow across the interior.

    1. Never got me excited. Ho Hum. Garden Variety Fropa and attendant showers/storms. 😀 Why would it be anything else?

  33. There was a nice Thunder Storm in Southern Maine that was rolling along and
    then Instant POOF!

  34. Sounds like a pulse type thunderstorm up there. There is nothing on radar then boom you got something that could get strong and may reach severe levels only quickly to weaken.

    1. I don’t think that is the case. It was going for a good deal of time and suddenly
      went Poof. Obviously it ran into a hostile environment. Perhaps the sea Breeze?
      A Cap? Some sort of loss of lift. I’m not sure I ever saw one go poof so fast.

  36. We are close to one of these clouds popping a shower here. Marshfield and just south towards Duxbury and Kingston and right on the ocean’s edge.

  38. UNBELIEVALBE NWS out of Taunton cant seem to get through a discussion without mentiong tornado.
    ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
    WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT. THERE IS ABOUT 25
    TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
    HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100. GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
    THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

  40. Bottom Line: Does Brady miss the first 4 games? If so, will the ring ceremony be postponed until Brady can play? I have heard so many scenarios even the possiblity of being out for the postseason (assuming the Pats make it).

    Will Brady be barred from the HOF down the road ala Pete Rose?

      1. No surprise. Gradient slowly increasing. It was only a matter of time before they lost the sea breeze. 🙂

      2. I saw that. Brighton hit 93 and it’s still 88 at 8pm! I don’t think we’ll go much lower than the mid 70’s tonight.

  43. That is for tomorrow Old Salty.
    Bruce Deprest meteorologist here in CT in his technical discussion mentioned a low risk for a tornado here in CT tomorrow. I am not seeing it.

  44. Tomorrow’s set-up does not generally favor severe thunderstorms in a widespread fashion.

    1. It favors a crap fest as per usual. 😀
      I’m glad I won’t be around to even look at it.

  45. I cut my grass today. Strangely, it is greener than I have ever seen it. I don’t water my lawn, and by this time, it is usually brown and dried up. This year, there are places in my yard that are so damp, the mower bogs down. Very strange. I have to admit, I like the other years when I don’t have to cut it every week in July and August!

    1. That’s interesting. It’s generally not been hot this summer, which favors growth of grass and greenness. But, it’s been dry for a while – at least in and around Boston – and grass doesn’t do well in prolonged dry weather.

  46. OS, I looked in a crystal ball, spoke to a fortune teller, and got out the old magic 8 ball … August 15th looks grand: Low 80s, not much humidity and not a shower around.

  47. NHC now has a floater satellite over the Cape Verde tropical wave. 30% chance of 5 day development.

    They have identified the highly sheared, weak circulation off the SE US coast for a 10% chance of 5 day development.

    1. Just enough low level shear in western CT and southwestern MA but it would have to come from either a lead cell ahead of a squall line or a “break-away” storm associated with a line to begin with. If it stays in line form, forget it.

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