Friday Forecast Update

81 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5…
Heat stays, humidity drops today as a weak cold front moves offshore. A very warm weekend ahead with mainly dry and very warm weather. Only the risk of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms mainly late Saturday with a weak disturbance passing through. Warmth and a return to some humidity Monday-Tuesday. Approaching cold front brings another chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday – timing uncertain this far in advance.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-85 Islands, 86-92 elsewhere. Less humid. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms mainly well west of Boston. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 80s. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-72. Highs 85-92.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows 65-72. Highs 83-90.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)…
Upper trough swings through the Northeast with temperatures near to slightly below normal early to mid morning, warming up late in the period. Mainly dry August 5-6, chance of showers about August 7-8.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)…
Trending warmer with limited shower activity.

81 thoughts on “Friday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks TK! The TV mets are talking 70s for later next week. That should feel mighty good. Too bad it won’t last but any relief will be welcome. 🙂

  3. BlueHill Observatory ‏@bhobservatory 48s49 seconds ago

    Great News- Both House & Senate overrode the Governors veto & restored the $100K earmark for the operation of Blue Hill Observatory.

      1. Eventually they will take that money away, and it won’t come back. Waste of money IMO :))

        1. In the grand scheme of things, that amount of money
          is a pittance. NO REASON for that to EVER go away.

          It would take a DIM WITTED NUT CASE politician
          to make it go away.

          1. Yup. Loads of valuable weather data and a very important observation location.

            It would be pure INSANITY to dismantle that
            operation.

            Anyone who would even remotely suggest that
            it go away is NOT tuned into reality.

  5. 6z GFS for 0z time frame Monday.
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=090
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=090&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=090&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  6. What a beautiful looking day with a bright blue sky. Really nice and noticeably less
    humid, not dry, but less humid for sure.

  7. 6z NAM more instability and little faster time with 6z GFS having the most instability in the 18z time frame Monday.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=084&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=084&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=084&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. MUCH more instability with NAM.
      Also note the HUGE difference in location of the large EHI area?

      This is truly up in the air.

  9. You have the higher EHI values on the NAM across parts of northern New England where the GFS has the higher EHI values across parts of SNE.

    1. Right. So that means the models differ on placement of helicity and thus
      placement/track of low pressure tracking to our North. That will be key.

  10. This typical not have model agreement when your still couple days away. We see in the winter when some models want to dump a lot of snow on us while others want to keep it a fish storm.

  12. I’ll pay attention to the model #s regarding Tuesday starting on Sunday. No information of value will be available before then. Early feeling is that we may have a very early frontal passage.

    1. That’s OK, but the rest of us enjoy the run-to-run fluctuations.

      IF I had to bet, I’d bet that NOTHING happens. 😀
      But it’s early, so we’ll wait and see.

      It’s been a lot of:
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
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      This time….no not this time
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      This time….no not this time
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      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time
      This time….no not this time

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  13. latest SREF picks up on the helcitiy and actually has Significant Tornado Ingredients
    showing up for Northern NE on 8/3:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f084.gif

    This always gets my attention. So this needs to be watched in case that area
    is shifted Southward with later runs.

    This is consistent with the NAM that shows
    the higher EHI to our North. SREF uses many members from the NAM. However,
    the GFS is showing the high EHI to our South, therefore the concern that it
    could end up in the middle right over our area. So, as JJ says, we have a WATCHER
    indeed.

  14. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan WVIT in CT
    Not sure if the timing is right for big storms but there’s an intriguing looking storm setup developing for Monday

  15. From reading that tweet I am thinking there COULD be some ingredients if the time works out where we COULD be looking at some sort of severe weather outbreak somewhere in New England early next week. Plenty of time to watch
    Be curious as we get closer what that vorticity link you post Old Salty shows.

  17. That front comes through few hours earlier then look out. Always comes down to timing a few hours either way makes the difference.

  18. 12z NAM for Monday
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=078
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  20. Still hot out today. The `cold’ front made incremental progress in clearing the air. Perhaps the next cold front early next week will usher in a truly comfortable air mass.

    Vicki, thanks for letting us know about the tornado in NH.

    Hadi, I agree that the Sox were intrigued by Sandoval’s impressive resume in the post-season. But, as a team you have to get there first. This team is years away from even being competitive. Almost no pitching, sporadic offense, poor base-running skills, lack of mental focus. All this adds up to futility; bridges to nowhere.

  21. 12z GFS for Monday
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=078&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=084
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=084&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=084&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. Once again, the GFS has all of the action to the South. NAM to the North.
      Which is it? Which is it? Which is it?

  22. Both 12z runs of American models similar to their 6z runs in their placement of the high EHI values.
    Curious if SREF still shows those significant tornado ingredients in future runs and if it does will it shift south or stay north.

    1. 15Z SREF coming out now. Only out 18 hours right now. Needs to chug a bit
      longer. It takes awhile to process this because it has 16 members. It computes the mean and spits it out on the maps. Some charts have a red dash if at least one member meets a threshold.

      The SPC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system is based on
      postprocessing the 15 member NCEP SREF plus the 3-hour time lagged,
      operational (12 km grid spacing) NCEP Eta for a total of 16 members.

      ARWC
      ARN1
      ARN2
      ARN3
      ARP1
      ARP2
      ARP3
      NMMC
      NMN1
      NMN2
      NMN3
      NMP1
      NMP2
      NMP3
      MBCN
      ONAM
      MBN1
      MBN2
      MBN3
      MBP1
      MBP2
      MBP3

      It’s worth it with the amount of information available!

  23. Regarding the Governor’s veto on Blue Hill Observatory, I didn’t vote for him anyway and I may have to remember this come the next election a few years from now. We will see how good my memory actually is.

    Thank you House and Senate. 🙂

    1. We’re having that problem as well, although airing the house out last night
      did help.

    1. Thanks for sharing Vicki. It would be interesting to see what Revere Beach looked like pre-1896.

  29. Hi all! Lots going on here weatherwise and otherwise as we transition to the 3rd and final month of Meteorological Summer!

    Weatherwise…
    So it wasn’t super dry today. It was not supposed to be. But it was more comfortable than yesterday. The “tolerable” air (by most people’s standards) will be with us this weekend, but you will notice it being a touch more humid with time. I think Sunday may end up a little more humid than advertised due to the wind going SW sooner than model-forecasts have indicated. For Saturday, the disturbance riding through the Northeast will be fairly weak but will trigger isolated storms with about a 15 to 20% chance of any given location seeing one in the afternoon or evening. Most areas will see nothing. Speed up the next front to a late Monday night or early Tuesday passage. Ahead of it, a hot and humid Monday is likely. A secondary trough later Tuesday may bring an additional shower or thunderstorm but of course timing is suspect so far in advance. Looks like a cooler interlude starting about Wednesday of next week and going through the second weekend of August. No it’s not going to suddenly feel like October, just a little cooler and on the dry side. Will watch for low pressure development south of New England at some point around August 6-8 as some guidance has indicated, but I’m not sure if this ever becomes a threat to this area. As we head toward mid month, an attempt will be made by high pressure to build in the western Atlantic, but it may be a slow process. We will see a return a warmer and eventually muggy pattern. When you see a forecast for a month that states “above normal temperatures”, that does NOT mean that every day of the month is going to run warmer than the seasonal average for the date. That would be an extremely rare occurrence. In the coming weeks, we’re going to have a lot to chat about in regards to El Nino, including the forecasts for it to become one of the strongest, if not the strongest, in recorded history. I’m on the fence about this one, but it does appear that it will peak around the end of the Autumn and then gradually ease during the Winter and early Spring of 2016. As a weather nut, I am quite excited about the impact this event is going to have on our weather. But we’ll talk more about that later. 🙂

    Otherwise…
    The first weekend of August for me will be a fun one, with Saturday being a long beach day at my favorite place – Hampton Beach NH. In the evening we’ll drift down to Newburyport MA for a great fireworks display next to the Merrimack River in Cashman Park for Yankee Homecoming Week. On Sunday, just about everyone in the family will be visiting down in Mom’s/Dad’s section of the house to celebrate my Dad’s 92nd birthday (which is Tuesday). Coincidentally, my brother from CT will be up to pick up his son who lives/works up this way to take him home for a visit, so they’ll be by along with my sister-in-law, though their other son is away in Singapore where he works. And speaking of international…my daughter happens to return from her 2 month trip to Japan on Sunday morning, so she will be able to join us, if she can stay awake. 😉 Interestingly, as she is taking the weekend to travel back, one leg of her trip begins on Sunday morning in Asia and ends Saturday night on the US West Coast, so she’ll essentially be traveling “back in time”. 😉 She arrives here around dawn on Sunday!

  30. I see the Sox came up BIG at the Trading Deadline…..NOT NOT NOT!!!!!!!
    That franchise is a JOKE of gargantuan proportions!)@)#)_!(@_#(!@)#)_!@(

    1. It makes some sense. I had heard an injunction might take case till after season. Otherwise, he might have to serve suspension if case not totally thrown out. Also, now the other teams don’t know whether to prepare for him or G

      I find it impossible for a court to read this petition and not toss it out. But court is in state where NFL headquartered…I believe

      https://nflpaweb.blob.core.windows.net/media/Default/PDFs/Media%20Resources/7.29.15%20petition%20to%20vacate.pdf

      1. I think so also. But the NY court is a bit of a concern as it is what NFL wanted and they had a reason. I know it is supposed to be impartial but so far this entire thing has been orchestrated.

          1. He is a fall guy and he said it was not one source. The NFL used him IMhO just as they used the pats

  32. The Hancock is no longer called the Hancock, it’s now called the Clarendon from this point forward. I kinda like the change 🙂

    2. It was sold. And it will always be the Hancock in the mind of Bostonians. Like Gillette, the garden, 128

      2. I call Gillette “the razor” I call the celtics stadium “td garden”, and I call 128 “95” all what there names really are. I like change, always have. It’s good for ya:)

  34. Thanks for your clarifications on the upcoming weather, TK.

    Sox have nothing to offer, which is telling. And, they’re hamstrung by several hundreds of millions of dollars tied up in worthless players! Remarkable ineptitude on the part of Ben C. They are more or less a talentless club, with a few exceptions (a couple of aging veterans, and several exciting young players). Sad, especially because baseball is my favorite sport, with hockey a close second, and football a distant third.

    1. For me as many know it’s Patriots #1, Celtics #2, and then I honestly really don’t watch much baseball or hockey. It doesn’t matter how well there doing or not. Season ticket holder for the Patriots for 30 out of my 41 yrs on earth. Whether it was my fathers or grandfathers tickets, I’ve been a season ticket holder since 94, I do sell some from time to time to other friends, but not usually. I’m going to game against the steelers with X patriot Chris Sullivan, and ex pro bowl tom nalen from foxboro, and many others. Brady or Garrapolo it should be good. 🙂

      Football is such a unique sport bc if just 1 guard or tackle is not cohesive, it can be bad, it’s a team sport, and that is what I love about Football. It’s for sure the #1 sport in America, and it’s not close, no disrespect intended josh 🙂

  35. Just saw and read your update TK. What a week you have to look forward to. And 92. WOW. Happy Birthday. Happy week

  37. Blog updated!
    Heading to Hampton Beach for the day .. Newburyport MA for the evening!

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