Sunday Forecast Update

73 Comments

8:26AM

DAYS 1-5…
Humidity slowly returns through Monday ahead of a cold front, but high pressure still firmly in control for today with plenty of sun before a few more clouds arrive and pop up during Monday. Showers/thunderstorms accompanying the passage of the first cold front Monday night and early Tuesday, but a second front later Tuesday may set off additional showers and thunderstorms in some areas. Behind the second front will be drier air by Wednesday with slight cooling. The cooling trend will continue Thursday but the dry weather may yield to an area of rain from the south as low pressure passes. The Thursday portion of the forecast is low confidence at this time since I’m not sure how close that system will get at this point.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 80-88. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. More humid. Highs 82-90. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms overnight. Muggy. Lows 64-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early. Scattered showers/thunderstorms mid afternoon on. Highs 82-90. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Lows 60-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Highs 78-86. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially South Coast. Lows 58-66. Highs 74-82.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)…
Temperatures below normal with a rain or shower risk August 7-9 then drier and warming up August 10-11.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)…
Temperatures close to seasonal averages with a few episodes of showers/thunderstorms during the period.

73 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast Update”

  1. REPOST of JJ’s 2 comments from the previous blog:

    6z NAM for Tuesday
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    6z GFS for Tuesday earlier time frame than 6z NAM.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=060&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=054
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  2. REPOST of Longshot’s Accu Weather Quiz

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    Chester and New Bedford hold the all-time hottest temperature for the region. What was it?
    A. 104 degrees
    B. 105 degrees
    C. 106 degrees
    D. 107 degrees

    Bandar, Mahshar, Iran had an actual air temperature of 115 degrees on Friday. The dew point was 90. What was the heat index?

    A. 130 degrees
    B. 154 degrees
    C. 165 degrees
    D. 180 degrees

    Answers later today. I got both right … finally!

    2. If long term memory serves me well, the answer to the first question is D.
      If short term memory serves me even better, the answer to the second is C.

      😉

  3. TK, thank you.

    Request: Could you give me a general forecast for Nova Scotia from August 8-15? Not a daily forecast … just a general idea.

    2. This is how I think it will pan out…

      A mild day in the 70s with fair weather August 8.
      Watch for a passing low and frontal system with showers at some point August 9.
      Gusty breeze August 10 but a return to fair weather. Highs 68-75 August 9-10.
      August 11-15 mostly a southerly flow with variable clouds but mostly rain-free. Possible shower threat will favor the August 12-13 period as it stands right now. Highs generally in the 70s each day.

  4. Thanks TK.

    Had an amazing night last night, as my son got to perform with a street performer who was in the semi finals of America’s Got Talent. We were at Fanuel Hall!! Check my FB page for the awesome video.

    1. Saw it and it is awesome. I plan to show my grandkids today. Was he just selected from the crowd?

  7. Thanks Tk 🙂 at the triple threat, a 1 miler, a 5K, and then a half marathon. Looks like a beauty. Enjoy the day!!

  8. D and C…
    Story coming later, after the answers to quiz are posted, about trivia question 1. Don’t want to ruin Longshot’s fun!

    2. That organization has completely fallen apart over the past 15yrs. Really ever since they lost in the playoffs against the Patriots. They were a franchise not to be reckoned with in the 70’s,80’s into the mid 90’s, from three crazy fans, to the product on the field.

  15. In what may be the 7th or 8th day in a row of what I would call true summer weather, I think today is the best of this particular stretch.

  16. Speaking of rushing the season…………..

    Halloween candy has been out for 2 weeks, and we got a Christmas catalog in the mail yesterday. 😉

    1. Totally ridiculous! I thought the back to school commercials and sales at the end of July were bad. Talk about rushing things

      1. I’ve watched at least one version of A Christmas Carol every month in 2015. 🙂

  17. Good morning.

    I’m afraid I am conflicted.

    Instability tomorrow night into the morning. Then more instability later.
    Some parameters are HIGH on some models not so high on others.

    In short I don’t know if we get severe weather or not. I’d lean towards NOT.

    SPC has slight only in Western sections.

    We shall see later.

    1. Not really a severe weather threat this time. General showers/storms late night into the morning. Second threat of storms late Tuesday afternoon and early Tuesday night, especially northern MA northward. Maybe a strong storm with that but isolated.

      1. Thanks for the info.

        I have a feeling this will be the last shot of the season, unless
        there is something tropical down the road.

  19. So I am at a function yesterday and there is a friend of my son who said he worked
    at a travel agency in Southie. I asked him if he knew Hadi and sure enough he did.
    He also told me that Everyone in the Company comes to Hadi to know the real deal
    with the weather. High praise Hadi! Well done!!

  20. Do we have a new background color or am I just not used to seeing because it rarely shows on my iPad

  21. Answers to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    Chester and New Bedford hold the all-time hottest temperature for the region. What was it?
    A. 104 degrees
    B. 105 degrees
    C. 106 degrees
    D. 107 degrees

    Bandar, Mahshar, Iran had an actual air temperature of 115 degrees on Friday. The dew point was 90. What was the heat index?

    A. 130 degrees
    B. 154 degrees
    C. 165 degrees
    D. 180 degrees

    I believe the answers are D & C.

    1. Thank you. I never answer because I would have been influenced by
      TK’s answers. Curious to know when that 107 occurred. For ever the state
      record high was 104. I grew up with that. I know for certain that is what it
      used to be. I do, however, have a vague recollection of New Bedford spiking
      that high temperature, jut can’t remember when.

      From this site I see the 107

      http://www.netstate.com/states/alma/ma_alma.htm

      August 2, 1975. OH I do remember that day.

      from this site, the 104, but who can trust Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Massachusetts

  22. The 18z GFS is hopeful for keeping Thursday’s rain south and seems optimistic for next weekend. Here’s hoping its on to something …….

  23. 40th anniversary of highest “official” temperature ever recorded in Massachusetts.
    As we now know (thanks, Longshot!!), it was 107 degrees in Chester and New Bedford on August 2, 1975. According to David Epstein in his blog this morning, it was 100 degrees on Nantucket on 8-2-75, the only 100-degree day ever recorded on the island.
    With a little research, I found out that Chester hit 100+ three days in a row on August 1-3 (104, 107, 101).
    New Bedford’s temperature was recorded at the Department of Public Works on Williams Street, not at the airport.
    I have also found it ironic and odd that the small western Massachusetts town of Chester (west of Springfield and as the base of Gobble Mountain!)) has the noble distinction of having the state’s all-time hottest AND coldest temperature. The temperature bottomed out to -35 on January 12, 1981.
    I checked with some folks in Chester. There is no airport in Chester. The temperatures were not recorded at the highway department nor the water department. It was David W. Parrett, Jr. Here’s what I learned about Mr. Parrett from the Chester Historical Society:

    Starting in the early 1960s,David W. Parrett Jr.,a meteorologist for the
    U.S. Weather Bureau, maintained a weather station, which was regulated for
    the U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, at his home on upper
    Middlefield Street.

    Parrett’s yearly reports of rain, winds and temperatures, recorded at his
    Chester Weather Station, appeared annually in the Chester Town Report up
    through 1975.
    In 1970, the U.S./ Government set up funds for a 50-foot tower and 22 feet
    of mast for the wind direction and velocity recording instruments. The
    station received seven-day recording instruments for all weather
    observations and Sandra Parrett also became a weather observer. The records
    were then sent to the National Weather Records Center in Asheville.,N.C.

    Parrett’s weather report aired regularly on radio station WTIC in Hartford,
    CT. often putting Chester on the meteorological map as the hottest or
    coldest spot in the entire Berkshire coverage area.

    Parrett lived in Chester until the early 1990,s when he moved to Great
    Barrington where he set up his weather station at his residence.

    Note: Dave is still very much alive and lives in a nursing home,
    part of his weather station still set up and is in his early to mid
    seventies. His weather reports were more accurate than some of the those we
    get now.

    So, cheers to David W. Parrett, Jr., a fixture in Massachusetts weather lore.

    I remember August 2, 1975 well. It was a Saturday and we were headed to the Cape. The car (no AC) overheated on Route 25 and dad had to put the heater on the keep the car moving. It was too hot to go to the beach. The sand burned our feet. We slept out on the lawn of the summer cottage on chaise lounges.

    Hope y’all enjoyed my story and research behind the state’s hottest (and coldest) day “evah”…Have a good week everyone!

      1. Rt 3 had my 3 year old daughter
        Wife mother-in-law and wife’s
        Aunt in car. No ac. Because ofvtheir
        Hair dos no open windows either.
        Thought I was going to die!!!!

    2. Great story! Thank you. 🙂

      Interesting to note, after that super hot day, which by the way started muggy and ended somewhat drier due to subsidence (which also resulted in the high heat right to the coast including CC & The Islands) it hit 90 on August 3 in Boston, then dropped off big time with a high of only 64 on August 7 including rain. A quick rebound to a hot day with a high of 91 on August 11, but that was it for the heat for the rest of the Summer. September was cool, with the highest temp being 80 in the city on September 5, with every other day topping out in the 60s and 70s except a chilly 59 on September 25.

    6. What a wonderful story and memory. Thank you soooo much for sharing. I think everyone knows that I do love personal stories. And David Parrett…..brought me tears and smiles.

      I wondered if that was the date. We were helping a family friend and family move into her house (as a professor) at Dartmouth College. We knew it was not but had no idea how hot until we heard the news on the way home

  25. 9:17PM to 9:23PM TONIGHT
    ISS fly-by from SW to NE at about a 65 degree max elevation. Perfect night to view it.

  26. Charlie, or to anyone, I
    Currently wayering my lawn 3 times a week, using the sprinkler system. When will the sund angle be low enough for me to change it to two watering per week?

    TIA

  27. Very close to the edge of a severe weather event late tomorrow night, but I think it’s going to fizzle heading into southeastern New England.

    Another shot at storms Tuesday, but the best support for big storms may be to the south while most of the moisture stays to the north.

    Also starting to think the second half of week rain threat may end up more of a “cloud” event than a “rain” one.

    Feeling a bit more optimistic about next weekend’s weather at the moment.

    1. TK what about in western parts of SNE. Do you think the storms fizzle before getting there
      or they will still have some punch and be locally strong or severe?

      1. They should retain some punch there, depending on timing/movement. We’ll have to see how it evolves.

        Not ruling out an MCS that holds together through western and central CT at night with weaker activity to the E.

  28. Going back to August 2, 1975:

    Most of you would know this more than I. I would assume the wind direction that day would have been due west (off the land) rather than southwest. That would have allowed the temperatures to be 100-degrees plus across the region, most especially along the South Coast and the islands.

    Am I correct?

    1. The wind was NW through midday then went variable to SE as Boston hit their high temp, then it dropped to the middle 90s with an E wind for a short time before shooting back up to 99 at 7PM with a NW wind again. It was still 90 at midnight!

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