Monday Forecast Update

228 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5…
Sun, heat, and more humidity dominates today ahead of a cold front, though some clouds will pop up during the day today. Showers/thunderstorms accompanying the passage of the first cold front Monday night and early Tuesday but will likely be coming through the area in weakening or dying form, so coverage may not be widespread and storms will not be a strong as they will be further to the west and north of southeastern New England. A second front later Tuesday may set off additional showers and thunderstorms in some areas. Behind the second front will be drier air by Wednesday with slight cooling. Still looking for further cooling Thursday and Friday and at least more cloudiness as low pressure passes south of the region. It remains unclear how far north an area of wet weather comes later Thursday into Friday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy and hazy. More humid. Highs 82-90. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly after 10PM. Muggy. Lows 64-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early. Scattered showers/thunderstorms mid afternoon on. Highs 82-90. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Lows 60-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Highs 78-86. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late, especially South Coast. Lows 58-66. Highs 74-82.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, especially South Coast. Lows 58-66. Highs 72-80.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)…
Temperatures below to near normal but looking like less rain risk and more likely dry for most of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 13-17)…
Temperatures near normal with a risk of showers and thunderstorms early in the period, then drier and warmer later in the period.

228 thoughts on “Monday Forecast Update”

  1. The trusty Accuweather forecast only has 6 more 80 degree days or higher. No more 90’s for my town.

  2. Thanks Tk 🙂 couple more warm days, then a taste of fall. Fall aeration overseedings start August 22nd, a small 1 day vacation to block island today. 🙂

  4. From NWS out of Taunton. Cant really scream at them today considering SPC has a 2% tornado risk for areas here in SNE that are either under a slight or marginal risk.
    THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
    CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
    BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
    SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
    AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

    1. You beat me too it JJ. I was about to say Taunton is at it again.

      HOWEVER, this time, Vorticity Generation Potential is in the .3 to .5 range.

      http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/prod/rt/wrf/wrf20/2015080300/vgp.hr30.png

      LCL (Lifted Condensation Level) is the pressure level a parcel of air reaches saturation by lifting the parcel from a particular pressure level. IT is low at 200-600 meters.

      http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/prod/rt/wrf/wrf20/2015080300/lcl.hr30.png

      Operational significance of LCL:

      Cloud bases: It determines how far air needs to be lifted to produce clouds.

      Tornado: In a supercell thunderstorm situation, a low LCL (closer to surface) increases the likelihood of tornadogenesis since the region of CAPE will be closer to the surface.

      Also, there is a very slight risk from the SREF:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036.gif

      Timing may be such that actual forcing may come after these parameters
      have passed by the area. It will all depend how it all comes together.

  6. 6z GFS for tomorrow in 21z time period.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  7. 6z NAM for tomorrow same time period
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  8. JJ NWS has discounted the NAM as being overly aggressive with instability parameters.

    SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
    GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
    PARAMETERS.

  9. It happens a lot in winter, but is happening this morning also.

    From eastern LI, into Rhode Island, up into Boston and then all areas S and E, dewpoints are 68 to 72. But, elsewhere in the whole northeast, they are generally 58 – 66.

    Of course, many times, a good deal of our high summer humidity likely comes from the Gulf of Mexico and by tonight, that will be advected in. But this morning, I believe southeast New England is already quite humid because of a S and SW wind off of the warm 70+ water temps sitting south of us.

  10. now for my complaint de’jour

    Pamela Gardner….

    Her forecasting style leaves much to be desired. She was brutal on the 11PM broadcast
    last night, simply brutal.

    Her lead in to the broadcast was Severe Storms. During broadcast, then and only then, did she mention severe storms would be confined to far Western sections. I honestly
    thought that things had changed. NOT! What a dip.

    Then she shows current conditions at Boston with a SOUTH wind. She said that
    the South wind would usher in SouthWest winds tomorrow INCREASING the humidity.

    Later she shows a “model” with radar echoes, NONE for Eastern Sections.
    Then she says, how the storms fall apart as the head Eastward because
    there is NOT much moisture to work with? Huh?

    Where did she get her degree? JC Penney?

    She is Bad.

    My wife was giving me the business that I don’t like Woman. NOT!! I just don’t
    like INCOMPETENT forecasters!! I Loved Mish Michaels and JC Monahan. If they
    deliver the goods, gender makes no difference to me. My problem with the female
    forecasters is that management LOWERS their standards to get the women on air.
    That should not be. They should be held to the same standard.

    1. Pamela Gardner is the best meteorologist in the Boston Market and should be on the air 24 hours a day.

  11. I am getting really mixed signals. For example, even TK says:

    …but will likely be coming through the area in weakening or dying form, so coverage may not be widespread and storms will not be a strong as they will be further to the west and north of southeastern New England.

    NWS says instability will be increasing during the night bringing the threat of severe
    weather even to the coast.

    Model instability is high all night long. Seems that “could” support severe even
    in the middle of the night.

    TK, you always have very valid reasons for your forecast and more often than not
    you are spot on.

    Could you possibly elaborate on reasoning for dying storms overnight?
    It would help us all out. Many thanks in advance.

  12. Thanks TK! Back home in Wrentham after a week in VT, got back a couple days ago actually but been a little busy. Was a great week. Warm weather, and generally dry save for a line of showers Thursday. Also experienced a heavy thunderstorm Wednesday evening in Burlington. We went on a sunset/dinner cruise that evening on Lake Champlain- slow moving storm passed by from about 4:45-5:45, had some gusty winds in it and torrential rain, but was all cleared out by the start of the cruise at 6:00, and it turned out to be a beautiful evening. Will try to post some pictures from that later. Other than that, lots of other outdoor activities during the week- swimming, hiking (Mt. Mansfield- drove up the Auto Road then hiked the last mile and a half or so to the peak), and some other odds and ends we like to do every year. Good to be back though, you could tell it was a hot, dry week- most of the lawn finally succumbed. Looking quite brown now.

    1. So glad you had a nice vacation. Everything sounds wonderful. We would love the cruise on Champlain. Spent a good deal of my youth on Isle la Motte. Love that lake!

  13. Weather-wise… Not too excited about the severe threat the next couple days. If we’re going to get severe, I think it would be mid-late day tomorrow as opposed to overnight tonight.

    However, I do see potential for a big rain event Friday-Saturday, perhaps our first region-wide soaker in while. As TK alluded to, South Coast looks like the better bet but I suspect most of us see at least an inch of rain in that period, and potential is there for much more.

    1. Around here, tough to predict.
      IF history means anything, I’d agree, however, sooner or later
      we are destined to have a weather surprise. We’ll watch, wait and see. 😀

  15. Tom Check out obs for Nantucket. To your point.

    8AM Obs, wind from 180, dew point = 72
    9AM Obs, wind from 200, dew point = 67

    A wind shift of 20 degrees dropped the dew point 5 Degrees.
    If that is not the cause, not sure what would be? A small area of subsidence
    and thus some brief temporary drying?? Thoughts?

    1. Interesting … Yes, could be some mixing of the column … Both MV and Block Island had same or higher dp last hour, so my guess is it will rise quite a bit at the 10am ob.

  16. SPC 9am update for today. The areas of slight and marginal risk remain the same. However the 2% chance for a tornado does not cover all of the marginal risk area. It is up for western MA and just clips northwest CT.

  18. Greetings from Cuttyhunk! Fellow sailers moored in the Cuttyhunk Salt Pond are already talking of a Nor’easter for the end of the week. Thank you all for keeping us on the right side of knowledge… Thanks especially to TK for running this website and providing the forecasts that seed so much interesting discussion!

  20. OS… Possibly too warm upstairs for big boomers here. Watch for a possible MCS western New England to NYC…

    1. Hmmm

      NWS keeps talking about temperatures cooling upstairs. I probably shouldn’t
      even be reading their discussions because all it does is confuse me. They seemed impressed that 500MB temps would cool to -12C and that Bulk Shear
      was 40 knots and 500MB winds 50+ knots.

      Where is the warm layer? 500MB? 700MB?

      That would essentially be a CAP? no? OR at the very least create not
      so favorable lapse rates.

      TK I’d believe you over the NWS any day of the week and twice on Sunday!!!
      I am just trying to understand WHY the NWS would say what they say when
      at the same time you are indicating too much warmth aloft. What are they
      SMOKING down there???????????????????????????

      Ahhh wait, I think I have the answer. They are government employees, probably paid too little and thus this is the CRAP we get out of them!

  21. Cuttyhunk, now that’s a cool place. Amy, thanks for checking in. Been there once in the early 1970s as a young boy.

    Charlie, enjoy the Block. You may be able to see Cuttyhunk from the northern part of the island.

    We really need rain in Boston. I do hope we get something this evening. I’m doing a rain dance right now.

  22. Bob Maxon meteorologist here in CT was saying there some ingredients trying to come together for some strong storms overnight where I am. I am assuming that is the possible MCS you mentioned TK?

    1. Is he any good? Curious to know.
      It seems down there, Gil is good, but I don’t know much about the
      others. Thanks

  24. Depsite MASSIVE instability tomorrow afternoon, the NAM wants to provide us
    with convection ONLY on or about the 10Z hour early tomorrow morning, then NOTHING thereafter. This is based soley on the Composite Radar Reflectivity Chart.

    We shall see. 😀

  25. Thanks, TK.

    And Vicki, thanks for the Happy Birthday wishes! Evidently, I share the same birthday as Tom Brady? Didn’t know that. Husband is out buying me a birthday cake – maybe I should have him find one shaped like a football? 🙂

          1. Is it yours? Your wife’s? Good gosh, you’ve got me there. I have no idea. Is this a trick question? 🙂

            1. I don’t keep up with movie stars, famous people, politicians all that much. Eating some of my football shaped bday cake now. You gotta tell me, OS!

  26. Gil Simmons is great. Too bad he is still on vacation. I would love to hear his thoughts on this. Bob Maxon is good to. One thing about the meteorologists where he works WVIT is they don’t blow things out of proportion just like Gil Simmons. Bruce Deprest and Mark Dixon are good at WFSB and Joe Furey is good at WTIC.
    The best meteorologist we had in CT was the late Dr. Mel Goldstein who passed away 3.5 years ago from a 17 year battle with miloma. He always had a smile no matter what the weather was good or bad. He made weather easy to understand in his forecast presentations. Never blew anything out of proportion. He was a professor of meteorology at Western CT State University before coming to work at WTNH. Joe Furey was a student of his.

  27. Weather forecasting has become sensationalist. That’s the issue, in my humble opinion. While capitalism and a market economy is the best system mankind has known, it’s not without faults. And one fault is that markets often do not do a good job of evaluating substance and value. As a result, in mass media markets ratings are everything. The substance of what is said in the mass media means less than attracting viewers or listeners. And that problem has only gotten worse during my lifetime. Hence, when we look at a site like weather.com it’s become an almost grotesque version of sensationalist weather reporting and forecasting. “Evacuations happening right now” … “Death and destruction” … “Calamity” … “It’s only going to get worse” … The headlines are meant to cause alarm, and intended to make us watch, click, or listen to bring in more advertising revenue. It’s a real issue that is rarely discussed. Personally, I’m appalled at where we’re headed. When we’ve stooped to the level of market groveling that in an ordinary baseball game a steal of second base is “brought to you by Safety Insurance … safe at second” we really should be doing some serious self-reflection.

    1. Agree with everything, except the Capitalism Remark. I do not believe
      that Money should RULE EVERYTHING and with Capitalism it DOES and at
      the expense of all else, including people and planet Earth itself. Perhaps with
      “some” modifications, I could become a fan. Capitalism with limits if you will.

      I am completely DISGUSTED with the way some big companies run their
      businesses currently.

    1. I don’t believe any of it AND it’s only “potential” anyway. Unless it is realized,
      it’s just a number. 😀

  30. Another guess – then I give up. Is it TK’s birthday? It’s been busy around here so I have been just casually looking at the blog the past few days.

  31. Old Salty – HAPPY BIRTHDAY! And may you have many more! It’s nice to share a birthday with you! It’s a beautiful day so enjoy the day! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. BINGO and thank you very much.

      I think I continue to be the oldest member of this blog (68 today!), unless there is
      a newer member that is older.

      I know of one person who maintains a close 2nd and then no contest
      thereafter. 😆

      1. And I would be remiss not to return a big happy birtday
        back in your direction! Have a great day.

      2. Wow – how did I miss that it is your birthday Old Salty. I hang my head in shame.

        A very, very, very happy belated birthday with to you!

    1. Happy Birthday OS !?

      Windy ….. My theory is that the column as a whole must be fairly dry and there’s good mixing going on with the windy conditions. Perhaps this mornings higher dew points were only near the surface or lowest few thousand feet ……

      1. Thank you and you make perfect sense.
        The higher dew points WILL be making a comeback later this
        evening and in the wee hours. IT’s those dewpoints that
        will support the increasing instability overnight.

        We shall see.

    1. Thanks JJ.

      Headed out for lunch. Be back later.
      We shall see what the SPC update looks like. 😀

  34. Today’s outlook will be update around 12:30 pm. Tomorrow’s outlook for tomorrow will be updated around 1:30 pm. I am expecting them to remain pretty similar.

  35. I just don’t think it cools quickly enough here in the east. That happens for Tuesday.

    1. TK thank you, but what layer do you mean here? 700MB or 500MB or some
      layer in between? Thanks

  36. Happy Birthday, Old Salty. May you feel like a Young Salty today!

    Regarding capitalism, please read my remarks carefully. I am not a believer in money ruling everything. I am a critic of our system, as can be seen in my viewpoint on ratings, sponsorship, and mass media. HOWEVER, as mankind we have not come up with a constructive alternative. Hence, my conclusion that capitalism with regulations that smooth out the rough edges is the best system we’ve got. Not the best system in theory, but the best real existing system.

    1. I agree that pure capitalism is not good. Socialism is far closer to the government and the country our founders developed in 1776. At that point we were, by far, the most egalitarian country in the world. Socialism is a word that simply terrifies many because they do not understand it, and like capitalism, what we have as socialist governments are not necessarily true socialism. I’m not sure there is one superior system.

      1. Vicki, I agree about Socialism. People equate that to the Soviet Union’s version of Communism.

        But some sort of hybrid Socialist/Capitalist economy would do the trick.

        I just don’t think we could get those in power to agree.
        Why? it’s simple: GREED

    2. Point taken. Thank you and I do understand. We are pretty much in
      agreement. Sorry about that.

  37. Hmmmm. 12z GFS further north for late week system. We are camping in RI late week, so I was hoping to avoid an all day rain event. Oh well, will make do. Still plenty of time for changes.

  38. Regarding Pamela Gardner, I absolutely agree with OS.

    She gave a forecast back in the winter in which she called for scattered snow showers with a total accumulation of 6 to 12 inches in addition to being under a Winter Storm Warning. I couldn’t believe when I heard that on WBZ radio and she said it on the TV portion as well that Sunday morning.

    She also drives me crazy with her “scattered rain” forecasts. The word “showers” should be added at the end IMHO.

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY OS!! 😀

  41. Happy Birthday, Rainshine! I’m sorry I forgot to include you. Better late than never.

    Tom, I’m hoping for rain due to the water deficit, but now that I see you’re camping in RI (which may wind up being the `jackpot’ area for the Friday storm) I’m hoping it doesn’t rain. You had your share of dampness and coolness up in Baxter Park while you and your family were camping.

    Vicki, interesting comments. Agree that the American Revolution, and later the French Revolution, cut ties with the feudal, monarchic, and aristocratic past. Egalitarianism was not something our Founding Fathers espoused, yet they mostly desired a society that was less class-based. The French explicitly included “égalité” as the second principle of the Revolution, and as a motto for today’s 5th Republic France. I’m wary of socialism. Not because of what Fox News says, or because I think Obama is a socialist (he’s far from it). But because I’ve seen first-hand in the 1980s the perverse injustices real existing socialism brought about for the peoples of Eastern Europe. I recognize that there are much better forms of socialism or social democracy. For example, Sweden. But, it is my view that social democracies have a way of diminishing the importance of the individual in all his or her idiosyncrasies; something which our imperfect and less egalitarian system safeguards. Americans are individuals first and foremost, more than in any country I’ve lived in. Americans are definitely less inclined to group-think, follow the leader(s) blindly, or conform to societal rules “because that is what’s done.”

    2. Agree that they wanted to move from aristocracy. However, I believe that equality was something the founders held closely. Jefferson… “The great mass of our population is of laborers; our rich, who can live without labor, either manual or professional, being few, and of moderate wealth. Most of the laboring class possess property, cultivate their own lands, have families, and from the demand for their labor are enabled to exact from the rich and the competent such prices as enable them to be fed abundantly, clothed above mere decency, to labor moderately and raise their families.” and “The wealthy, on the other hand, and those at their ease, know nothing of what the Europeans call luxury. They have only somewhat more of the comforts and decencies of life than those who furnish them.”

      As absolutely fascinating as I find this topic, I will move back to weather. You are not on FB are you Joshua? To everyone…thanks for allow us to have the discussion 🙂

  42. SPC seems to think Tomorrow poses the most risk for SNE. Currently, in the Marginal risk, but it “could” be upgraded to slight in later updates.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1438623926025

    …NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC STATES…
    MODERATELY STRONG/SEASONALLY COOL CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
    PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES
    AND NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS…A COLD FRONT WILL
    CONTINUE AN EASTWARD-PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD…WITH
    A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE FRONT IN AREAS
    GENERALLY NEAR/EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE VERY STRONG SHEAR
    /35-50 KT EFFECTIVE/ WILL TEND TO COINCIDE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
    DURING THE AFTERNOON…THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO
    FRONTAL TIMING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RELATIVELY MODEST NEAR-FRONTAL
    CONVERGENCE…PARTICULARLY GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE SUB-OPTIMAL
    TIMING OF EMBEDDED/LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE FEATURES. WHERE STORMS
    DO DEVELOP/INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON…AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK
    SEEMS LIKELY…WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE HAZARD.
    AREAS INCLUDING THE DELMARVA/NEARBY NJ IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE
    WAVE APPEAR TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT GREATER RISK FOR SOME SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORMS…WHILE OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
    COULD ALSO ULTIMATELY WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE PENDING
    SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.

  45. Thanks for the fascinating Jefferson quote, Vicki!

    No, I’m not on Facebook.

    And yes, I’ll return to weather. This is a weather blog after all.

  46. And back to the program after the “commercial break”

    The humidity did increase. We finally turned the ACs back on. It was great having them off for a bit and my guess is it won’t take long to cool the house. We have 88 with a 61 DP and a very gusty WSW wind into the high teens.

  47. I was peaking at the Nauset beach webcam, looking south, it was showing dark clouds. Sure enough, looks like storms scraping southernmost Chatham.

    1. We dropped a degree…perhaps Logan took one of ours. DP dropped to 60 also.

      Some clouds (not many) are starting to pop up in what was a perfectly clear sky to the north. Wind seems a bit calmer. However, as soon as I post this, I am sure it will pick up 🙂

  49. Ok, Now that the 12Z runs are complete. What will it do? What will it do?
    NAM, GFS and CMC ALL differ. They differ in timing and strength of instability.
    Amazing this close.

    All I can say is IF we get storms, there is the possibility of rotation and I’ll leave it at that for now.

  50. Latest SREF significant tornado ingredients for 18Z Tomorrow

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f027.gif

    CravenBrooks Significant Severe parameter 18Z tomorrow

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_CB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f027.gif

    That’s 40,000 for the Boston Area.

    Craven SigSvr Parameter

    The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.

    Please note: From TK, it’s ONLY 1 Parameter.

    Super Cell Composite Parameter

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_CB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f027.gif

    That’s 5 for Boston South. I have NEVER seen it that high. Of course I haven’t been
    looking at it that long. But that is high.

    Supercell Composite Parameter

    A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

    This index is formulated as follows:

    SCP = (muCAPE / 1000 J kg-1) * (ESRH / 50 m2 s-2) * (EBWD / 20 m s-1)

    EBWD is divided by 20 m s-1 in the range of 10-20 m s-1. EBWD less than 10 m s-1 is set to zero, and EBWD greater than 20 m s-1 is set to one.

    Again 1 parameter.

    BUT when one starts putting all of the parameters together, it starts to get
    extremely interesting. We shall see.

      1. Note: There are timing differences with the VGP and SREF
        and ALL other models for that matter.

    3. From NWS

      https://scontent-lga1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/t31.0-8/11741035_848129838614722_4211231487863507927_o.jpg

      This goes with it.

      EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
      WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS…WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
      THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

    1. Gotcha. Thanks

      However, Both COOL by tomorrow. What are your thoughts on convection
      for Early Tomorrow afternoon?

      Thanks

        1. Hmmm What do you make of the NWS above.
          They really stick their collective necks out all of the time, don’t they?

          1. I don’t get a whole lot of value out of those statements lately.

            There is basically a “chance of anything”.

            1. ROTFLMAO

              Excellent response!! Love it!
              Why can’t they be more realistic.

              Given that, I think there is a bit more risk
              this time than several previous times. 😀

  52. fwiw,

    The 18Z NAM Pounds the Boston area around 22Z tomorrow with big boomers.
    About .3 or .4 inches very quickly

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015080318&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=028

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015080318&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=026

    Shows 2,000 joules plus at that time and just prior to the convection, 3,000 joules +

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015080318&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=026

    Wind gusts to near 40. If that is the case, then sub-severe UNLESS severe hail.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015080318&time=3&var=GUSTM&hour=028

  54. Logan averages 14 90-degree days so it will be interesting to see how close we get. I suspect that it is more difficult achieving 90F in September due to shortened daylight even if there is a very hot airmass in place. Of course, since I don’t like HHH, it won’t bother me in the least if today ends up being the last 90-degree day of the season.

    We have lots of August to go through still…just the beginning.

    1. Last of it. Last of it. Last of it. Last of it. Let us sincerely hope, well at least you
      and I. 😀

      1. This is not the last of the heat, but it will take a break after tomorrow for a little while.

  55. Rainshine & OS … Don’t think I said it before in the midst of my running around and checking from my phone kind of day… Happy Birthday!

    My father’s 92nd birthday is tomorrow. 🙂

    1. August must be a popular month for birthdays! My grandmother’s birthday was in August. She used to say that the week she was born, it was very unsettled with frequent storms. I ride the T and walk and I have noticed a number of “expecting” women lately. 🙂

      1. My youngests bday is Thursday. She was born 8-6-86. Mac’s cousins bday is the same day. Mac and his brother share clintons bday and the anniversary of hurricane Bob. August 19. It seems to be a grand birthday month.

        1. I can top that. I was born on my Father’s birthday. He would have been 92, but he passed 4 years ago.

          1. That is pretty cool. What a great celebration for your dad and also for you growing up and special memories now.

  57. Barry says it could be quite “active” in Boston come tomorrow afternoon around 4:00 pm or so and a LOT OF RAIN for Saturday…of all the weekends for a washout. 🙁

    UGH!

    2. What?!?!? Noooo! I’m supposed to be laying my patio pavers all day. This forecast needs to change

  58. Tk, would u agree that northern new England have been getting hammered this summer more than us? I have been looking at the storm reports the past week and almost all of the days have nee active. Storms there seem to be more oeganized as well rather than here

    2. Absolutely. The pattern has been persistent enough that we have seen more consistent support for storms up there.

  59. Not for Nothing, but I was speaking with our daughter awhile ago and she
    heard on NECN (home of Matt Noyes, but she didn’t say it was he) that
    it is possible for a few weak tornadoes tomorrow. So there you have it.

  60. I am curious what future runs of the SREF model show. If it is highlighting a particular area then we need to watch as that model does a good job.

    1. Due out about 9PM. Usually come out about 4 hours after run time.
      Latest was 15Z, so 21Z is next

  61. hmm,

    Latest HRRR shows BIG TIME convection in Boston at 12Z tomorrow AM
    with VICIOUS lightning, 0-1 and 0-3 KM helicity in the 150-250 range with Cape
    of 3,000 joules at that hour. That’s a ton of instability AND parameters in place
    to possibly suggest some rotating storms.

    I am wondering if there isn’t SEVERE weather at 8 AM tomorrow.

    Of course, it does NOT mean that the HRRR is correct by any means just another time
    period to watch. IF this materializes, I would say that it would minimize and/or reduce the afternoon risk. Again, we shall see. It doesn’t have to. It depends upon how fast
    the atmosphere destabilizes, if it even can.

  62. I do agree with the SPC tomorrow in keeping the marginal risk is there COULD be a locally strong or severe storm tomorrow. I don’t see a widespread severe weather.

    1. Not sure what to think. There sure are sign of possible severe. We can’t totally
      discount those signs. May not happen, but it is possible. We shall see.

      Radar watching tomorrow for sure, perhaps even twice tomorrow!

  63. Happy birthday, OS, Rainshine, and TK’s dad 🙂

    I just got back from my daily bike ride, ending down my cul-de-sac as a cool down, where I heard my neighbors’ little kids (4-6 years old) discussing the weather and talking about the potential of thunderstorms “really late at night, like when we’re sleeping…I hope it wakes us up!” – OMG SO CUTE! Reminds me of all of us, and how some of your little ones talk. Weatherlove starts early – I know at those ages, I certainly paid attention, too.

    1. It is really good. But it is small and you sort of sit on top of others. I’m not a fan of that. We were actually talking last week about going during the week.

  67. Now reports of at least 2 dead in Lancaster, NH, with several seriously injured. Cause is apparently one of the severe T-storms (specifically a wind gust that dislodged the tent from its moorings) that some of you have been monitoring (OS, JJ, and others).

    1. I saw one through the concord area but thought Lancaster was further north and didn’t notice anything there…that is tragic.

      1. I’ve been monitoring periodically because I have family up north. Not concerned, but out of curiosity I follow the storms. I don’t quite understand the weather terms JJ, OS, and TK use in reference to thunderstorms. But, I’m beginning to grasp some of it. Unlike snowstorms and blizzards, severe T-storms and tornadoes have always scared me. They’re sudden, unpredictable, and violent at times. When they cause death and injury it’s so awful. Remember last year when two women (around 60) lost their lives at Crane’s beach due to a freakish lightning strike. Sad.

        1. I do remember Cranes beach. I’d been watching NH also as brother is in Concord area. Also was watching Atlanta as sister in law called to say a storm had knocked out their power which is not typical. Like you, I’m starting to understand some terms and would really like input on this storm. It is heartbreaking.

  69. Joshua there are several terms we use when talking about thunderstorms. When the word Cap is mentioned the air above is to warm for thunderstorms and it essentially puts a lid on them even if there is a lot of instablity for them to develop. Another term CAPE which is short for Convective Available Potential Energy. The higher the number the more unstable the atmosphere is. CAPE values of 5000 or greater are considered extreme. The highest I have seen here in SNE is 4,000 the day of the Springfield Tornado.

    2. Thank you, JJ, for the clarification. Appreciated.

      I know that you follow T-storms starting in spring.

  70. I enjoy tracking snowstorms and thunderstorms. Only had one good thunderstorm day here in CT back on the 23rd of June when a microburst tracked south of me across parts of southern CT. Wind speeds from that were between 90 – 95 mph range.

  71. Vicki the microburst that hit that part of CT had stronger winds than the EF 0 that hit Wrentham, MA that same day. Sometimes those microbursts do as much damage as an EF 0 EF 1 tornado.

    1. Amazing isn’t it. I keep trying to tell my kids that it isn’t just tornadoes they need to worry about. I wonder if that is what happened in NH.

  72. A thunderstorm does not have to be severe to be dangerous. Getting struck by lightning could result in a fatality and there are plenty of times when there is a ton of lightning with a thunderstorm and there is no warning on the storm. I remember a few years ago at Hammansett Beach in Madison, CT there thunderstorm wasn’t severe a person got struck by lightning and unfortunately lost there life.

  73. Here ya go JJ. 21Z SREF. 03Z due out around 3AM or so.

    15Z to 18Z tomorrow is ground Zero according to the SREF.

    Significan ingredients

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f018.gif

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f021.gif

    Significant tornado parameter. This is 1 in our area. Reason for concern.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f018.gif

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f021.gif

    When we get sigtor param >=1 combined with any chance on the significant tornadoe
    ingredients we have reason to be concerned.

    NOT saying it will happen, but both of these occurred with the Revere Tornado, although the parameter was 1, ingredients was 15 and not 5 as per tomorrow.

  75. Big thunderstorms were developing just in the past hour around concord nh, in which some turned severe. Shows you how we can get big storms without the sun
    Os i tried to google but nada, 13z is what time exactly to EST?
    thanks in advance

  76. 0z NAM at 21z time frame for tomorrow,
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=018&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=021
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=00&stn=LI&hh=021&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=00&mod2=nam&hh2=021&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=00&stn=CAPE&hh=021&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=00&mod2=nam&hh2=021&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

      1. From NWS

        SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
        WEAK TORNADO…REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC. THEREFORE…STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

  78. CMC-RDPS a.k.a. GEM-REG / North America (mesh: 10 km)
    6Z Instability parameters

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=CAPE&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=012

    LIFTED INDEX

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=LI&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    This EHI is very high

    6Z NAM instability parameters

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    LIFTED INDEX

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. SREF CRAVENBROOKS Significan Severe

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_CB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f018.gif

      that’s 40,000 to 50,000 in our area! MOST IMPRESSIVE

      Super Cell Composite parameter

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SCCP_MEDIAN_MXMN__f015.gif

      Sig tornado ingredients

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f012.gif

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif

      Sig tornado parameter

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f015.gif

      12 hour calibrated severe thunder Storm

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_12HR_SVR_PROBS__f021.gif

  79. To sum it up,

    These are some of the most impressive severe parameters I have ever seen
    around these parts. It certainly supports the “possibility” of a tornado or 2
    across the area, particularly Boston and Southward. Not too mention severe storms
    with damaging wind and hail.

  80. Looks like that storm coming my way is full of lightening and is getting stronger in CT and RI.

      1. So far NO signs of rotation on those approaching storms.
        The “could” change. Watch to be safe.

      1. Honestly, I don’t see 60 mph out of that storm at this time.
        Perhaps it intensifies, but right now, just doesn’t look like it to me.
        I dunno.

  84. Love these kinds of mornings!! On my third downpour of the morning. Monster severe storm going to pass south of me, it takes up over half of RI though! Radar indicating ~70mph winds at 1500 feet.

    And a side note- many models, especially the NAM and until just recently the HRRR, missed this morning convection. The only ones that really did a good job were the two 0z WRF models, the ARW and NMM, particularly the former.

  87. TK, has your thoughts changed on the potential for thunderstorms this morning, and on the possible rain event later in the week?

  89. I’d expect there is widespread wind damage south of Providence, around Cranston. Quite likely wind gusts of at least 60mph, and perhaps as high as 80mph, based on observed radar velocities.

    1. Yup. That was a decent one with some rotation. Thankfully, it looks like
      the rotation did not get strong enough to bring anything to the ground.

      Could flare up again as it moves into MA.

    2. From NWS re: that storm

      QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CUMBERLAND TO NEAR CRANSTON TO NEAR BRISTOL…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

  90. Updated warning from the NWS on that RI storm- as serious as it gets for a severe t-storm warning, easily as dangerous as a low end tornado. We hardly ever see anything like this in our region.

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM EDT
    FOR BRISTOL…SOUTHWESTERN PLYMOUTH…SOUTHEASTERN NORFOLK…
    BRISTOL…NORTHERN NEWPORT…KENT…NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
    PROVIDENCE COUNTIES…

    AT 628 AM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGE
    WAS MOVING INTO THE CRANSTON AND PROVIDENCE METRO AREA. THIS IS A
    VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

    QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH ARE
    POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
    CUMBERLAND TO NEAR CRANSTON TO NEAR BRISTOL…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
    MPH.

  94. If you didn’t see it, this was added to the end of the severe thunderstorm warning:

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY…SHORT LIVED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

    TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WAS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS.

  95. Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
    8 mins ·
    Multiple damage reports streaming in from Rhode Island. Trees down, power out, hail. All moving into Bristol County MA next. Shelter indoors

  96. Off and on light rain and thunder in the distance. Severe thunderstorm warning for me but the real action has been south into RI and southern Bristol cty MA

  99. Severe thunderstorm warning extended into Bristal, West Barnstable and a portion
    of Norfolk County.

    http://www.mattnoyes.net/alerts/2015/08/weather-alert-severe-thunderstorm-warning-for-barnstable-county-ma-and-others.html

    This wording on the end:

    precautionary/preparedness actions…

    while not immediately likely, this storm may produce a short lived
    tornado. move to a safe place now in a sturdy structure, such as a
    basement or small interior room.

    minor flooding can be expected from torrential rainfall. do not drive
    through flooded roads.

  100. For the moment ALL CLEAR on rotation. NOTHING showing, not even the weakest
    indication. That is good.

    These storms are ROCKETING across the area and will be out of here very soon.
    Then we COOK and PERCOLATE for the next round, which “could” be very juicy indeed.
    We shall see.

  103. That was severe here in Somerset!! Hail , howling winds , green sky , no power!
    Not sure of damage yet but I am sure there are trees down! Wow, scary!

  104. Looks like Boston escapes again. How is it possible? Every time this summer. Very dark all morning, yes. But very little rain, and only an occasional clap of thunder. Compare this to towns and cities just to our south where there’s been quite a bit of action.

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