Monday Forecast Update

91 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5…
High pressure slips off to the east today. Low pressure moves through from west to east on Tuesday with unsettled weather. This low pulls away Wednesday but an upper low may still kick off a few showers. High pressure moves in with fair weather later in the week.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-76 coast, 77-82 interior. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 60s. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms especially in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible. Lows in the 60s. Highs 77-84.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 56-63. Highs 75-82.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Highs 77-84.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)…
Seasonable warmth and more humid with a slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm weekend August 15-16. Additional showers/thunderstorms August 17-18 ending by August 19 with temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)…
High pressure ridge becomes more established with late August heat and humidity possible and limited rain chances.

91 thoughts on “Monday Forecast Update”

  3. Big 500 mb ridge has been sitting over Texas lately in this pattern ….

    Here’s been the temperature effect on Dallas since August 1st …..

    5 straight days of high temps of 103F or higher, maxing so far at 106F yesterday ….

    5 straight nights of lows at 80F !!! or higher …..

    During the first 4 days of August, it was at least 97F for a high and only “cooled” to 77F one morning.

    Even by its lofty August long term averages, Dallas is +4.7F for the first 9 days of August.

    Data from NWS climate section.

  4. Thanks tk 🙂

    I believe it’s normal for Dallas to have 11 days of 100 degrees or higher. When I was there between 99-04 one of those years there were 42 days over 100, there record if I’m not mistaken is 67 days. 🙂

  5. TK, how much rain are we looking at on Tuesday from the showers and tstorms? And will it be widespread?

      1. If its going to be >0.50″ i wont water the garden and lawn today (one of 2 days/week im allowed by the town) but I’ll be damned if we get pooched tomorrow and i cant water till Friday.

  7. Good morning and thank you.

    I keep hearing talk about thunder storms tomorrow?
    From What? I don’t get it. There’s virtually no instability in Eastern sections
    and only So so in Western sections. What am I missing?
    Last night the weather babe on Channel 4 said possible damaging wind and Hail.
    huh? what? Usually for that statement to be made, there are some hefty instability
    parameters to back it up. I sure as hell don’t see them. Can some one please enlighten me???? My UGH meter is about to pop!!!

    1. My remarks above were for Thunderstorms, not a general rainfall.
      Yes, I can see it raining, but I just can’t see thunderstorms. That’s my problem.

    1. I am/was aware of that, however, can someone please show me what justifies
      that. What am I missing????? Clearly a DIFFERENT set up than last Tuesday
      where Cape was extremely high and the CravBrooks parameter was through the roof (50,000).

      For tomorrow, Cape is about 500-750 Joules. Big woof.
      ZERO on the CravenBrooks. On the SREF, there is ZERO CAPE for
      tomorrow. So what will drive the thunder storms? I just don’t get it.

      1. Old Salty I am seeing more of a rain threat than a strong to severe thunderstorm threat.
        Although Gil Simmons said this morning for my part of CT there COULD be one or two severe storms.
        As I said many times on the blog Gil does not over hype things.

        1. I could see that in your area, but certainly NOT here.
          From what I see, not even a rumble of thunder here, UNLESS things change.

  11. 6z GFS for tomorrow.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. You’re making my point. Yes some instability in Western Sections.
      500-750 joules in Eastern Sections. Just not impressed. Now perhaps
      there are other offsetting parameters of which I am not aware that
      will contribute to T-storms even with the small Cape. But overall, I am
      not impressed.

      Honestly, I have not been looking at this for Tuesday. I saw the Weather on Channel 4 last night and was excited to have a look at the instability
      parameters this morning. What a JOKE!

      So that is why I am reacting. I’d like to be schooled, because obviously
      I AM MISSING something.

      1. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of wind shear tomorrow. Sometimes you Could have a setup with a low CAPE
        high shear environment and get some thunderstorms that could pack a punch and sometimes produce weak
        tornadoes. I could see some rumbles of thunder tomorrow and maybe an isolated strong storm.

          1. This tells me that IF we had more robust CAPE, we might see a tornado threat. BUT with the low
            Cape, SREF NOT showing any threat at all
            for tornadoes.

            1. NWS out of Upton, NY was saying models no longer developing a wave of low pressure.
              It did mention the possiblity if the wave of low pressure showed up on future model runs
              and tracks towards the area rotating storms would be a concern Tuesday morning.

  12. 6z NAM for tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  13. Not expecting much for storms, more of a general rain, which seems to be the way this summer has gone, every few days we’ve gotten rain, other than 1 or 2 drier periods, it’s been great.

  14. Hmmm, Elevated instability is what I overlooked and that is what might be
    driving the thunderstorms. Thank you Upton NWS for enlightening me.

    We shall see.

  15. As far as the update from the SPC for tomorrow which will come out around 1:30pm I don’t see an upgrade to slight risk. If anything the marginal risk area will cover less areas of SNE.

  16. I heard on TV this morning that in Texas and other areas in the deep south that are suffering from the intense heat, school starts this week.

    UGH!!!!!!! Why do these areas start school so early?? It’s not like they have to be concerned with snow days down the road or anything like that.

    2. It’s funny because when I was there, they couldn’t believe our kids went to school till almost July 🙂

      1. Thanks for the article Vicki. I still prefer that kids start in early September. Each school district has to decide what is best.

        When I attended MBCC years ago, they started the week before Labor Day. I didn’t have too much of a problem with that since finals were done by mid-December and we got most of January off. I believe nowadays they start right after Labor Day.

  17. Tomorrow looks wet from mid-morning through the early evening hours. In other words…a total washout. Also from what I have seen on those futurecasts, Wednesday afternoon looks quite wet region wide as well. No one will escape this time.

  19. A CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) value near 1,000 is certainly enough for thunderstorm development and maybe even an isolated strong storm.

  23. Close up view of 12z NAM from meteocentre for tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  24. Wow, a couple of days of northeast winds …… The swells rolling in are perhaps 3 to 5 feet, quite tall and thick. The kind of waves you have to jump over or they go over your head.

  26. 12z GFS for tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  27. Welcome rain tomorrow. It’s a better kind of rain than last week’s brief deluge with lots of hail thrown in. Lawns and gardens are better off with light to moderate rainfall over an extended period.

    Long-range forecast projects September to be relatively warm, as TK has been saying for awhile. This said, September `heat’ is not summer heat, at least I do not perceive it as such.

    The Dutch have one of the best school systems in the world, if we measure in terms of knowledge base and analytical skills. It’s a no nonsense, old-fashioned curriculum that hardly changes over the years. Many more hours of school than the average American child. Only 6 weeks off during the summer, and about 5 weeks off throughout the school year, with very few 3-day weekends (maybe 2 Christian holidays in the spring, like Easter Monday). There’s a lot of rote learning, lots and lots of math and science, and tons of exams which count for 100% of your grade. I think it’s a good system, but it’s a tough grind for children. My kids didn’t like it. They were miserable at times. And, the sifting occurs much too early, as children take their entrance exams for high school admission in the 6th grade. These determine their future: That is, whether they go on to a vocational school starting in 7th grade, an apprenticeship school starting in 7th grade, or a preparatory school starting in 7th grade (preparing for university). Only about 15-20% make it into the preparatory school.

    1. Agree Joshua, it’s kinda like it being cold in March, it is just not the same type of cold, sun angle etc make all the difference 🙂

    1. The first week of September can feel pretty hot if the weather is hot, but after that even on days in the upper 80s it’s a limited period of time that the heat takes over, and generally humidity levels are more tolerable.

      In terms of daylight we’re currently approaching the same number of daylight hours we had on April 30th. By September the number of daylight hours approaches what we have in late March.

  29. It’s later than usual, but starting to notice some parts of lawns looking stressed/burnt. So, perhaps tomorrow’s rains are perfectly timed.

    1. Mine is toast. Sudbury river here is nonexistent. Despite fact daughters and families are on vacation, rain tomorrow will be welcome. Not to mention daughter will have my head if I let the plants she has watered all summer die because I have not watered

    2. Yup if you haven’t watered at all there the beginning of light to moderate heat stress, but if you have even watered once or twice a week, it’s a decent green, if your watering at least 5 times a week like 75% of my clients, it’s a lush green. 🙂

      1. Isn’t watering that often not conducive to strong roots? I’ve heard less frequent but deep watering is better.

        1. Myth, during summer water 30 min’s every morning, so that the dew in the am drys the same time as your watering. 🙂

    3. We are fighting ants that like to make anthills this year in our very small lawn. We put in a brick patio and do not know if that inspired more ants.

      1. Ewww. I will trade you some chipmunks for some ants. And I literally told mac today when we saw a brick patio that it is something I’ve always wanted

          1. They listen to me too. Then they go forth and…..well, you know :). I also had a long talk with a new baby bunny this am about eating daughters roses. He appeared to listen …we will see

  31. In Nova Scotia.

    Temps for 1st 3 days upper 60’s, low 70’s; light breeze; no humidity. A little overnight rain on Sunday (much needed up here). About perfect!

  32. It makes sense that hot days are not as long in September, or even late August, but that’s just because the daylight hours are much shorter than June and July. 🙂 But that’s me stating the obvious. Hot Septembers can be brutal. It doesn’t happen often, but it can happen. …1983 is a glaring example…

    1. I just cringed. As I recall 1983 was hot in general but I was pregnant and sick and, yes I am shaking my head, loving every second.

  33. The US Drought Monitor still shows areas of abnormally dry in southern NH and near the South Coast. A swath in the middle has been taken out of that category thanks to more regular rain.

    For my local area, we’re running a significant enough deficit that our local pond is below the spill-over level at the dam on the south end of it. And there is much more dry area than average showing along the sides of the pond. It’s LOW. My lawn is basically not growing, which is fine because not having to do much mowing right now is fine with me.

    As of today, Boston is running a precipitation deficit for 2015 of over 5 inches. We’re still dealing with long-term dryness.

  34. Strong signs for the August heat taking over for the second half of the month. Can’t say this is a surprise as El Nino Summers are usually back-loaded with heat and humidity. So I think we’ll see a preview of Summer 2016 as we get into the later stages of Summer 2015.

    Also, Perseid Meteor Shower starting to get going. The peak night is late night August 12 to early hours of August 13. In idea conditions 60 to 100 meteors per hour may be visible.

  35. September 2007 was relatively hot, too. But again it’s mitigated heat if you will.

    See below for an interesting article on local responses around the globe to climate change. The article appears in this week’s Christian Science Monitor. [For those of you who don’t know the Monitor and fear reading it because of its name, it’s not related to scientology or a cult (unless one considers abstention from alcohol and all kinds of drugs cultist), it is about as centrist a newspaper as we have in the U.S., not sensationalist, and for me at least pleasant to read. Note, I am not a Christian Scientist, I was raised Jewish, though my Mom is Protestant]

    http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2015/0809/Climate-change-crusade-goes-local

    1. 🙂 The Christian Science monitor is one of the least biased news sources in the world…not just U.S.

      I say this because it is a fact as you have said, Joshua. I was also raised in the Christian Science religion. Much of my base and trust in both good and God is from that base. I also smiled at your comment re alcohol and drugs. I enjoy that you embrace and take the time to understand all, Joshua!!

      Thanks for the link. I look forward to reading it :).

      1. Very interesting, Vicki.

        I’ve subscribed for decades, as did my parents. Always an interesting perspective in the CSM. But more importantly, an upbeat one. CSM is about as far removed from today’s polarized politics as one can get. It’s the antidote to Trump and Trumpism, but is equally the antithesis of Clintonian opportunism. Alas, we now inhabit a world that reveres the sound-bite, the insult, the I-can-scream-louder-than-you mentality of MSNBC and Fox News.

        1. It is always my go to source and has nothing to do with my upbringing. I try very hard to see two sides although I do not always succeed. The Monitor helps by giving a balance. It is sad there are not more like it.

          You have pretty much summed the teachings which are reflected in the journal. You do justice to both. Nice

  36. So tk 1983 was 33 yrs ago, so it doesn’t happen often, maybe 2 or 3 times if your lucky in a lifetime? Plus my point was it doesn’t feel as hot as if it was June July or August 🙂

  37. SPC continues to have us in marginal risk. 2% chance tornado for SNE with the exception of far western MA and western CT. 5% chance of wind. New update around 9am.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    …SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC…
    A BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NY AND ERN
    PA…AND WILL DEVELOP NEWD RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE DAY INTO NEW
    ENGLAND. WHILE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK…STRONGLY VEERING
    WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY FAVOR A FEW
    STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OR EVEN A BRIEF…AND WEAK
    TORNADO.

  38. From NWS out of Taunton.
    LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
    /TRANSLATED DOWN FROM THE SOUTHERLY JET/ WILL BE A CONCERN THIS
    AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES OF 150+ ON
    ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL.

  39. Okay its not just Taunton mentioning tornado in their discussion.
    From NWS out of Upton, NY
    THERE WILL ALSO BE BE A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE
    WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
    GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR WITH
    STRONGLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOW LIFTING CONDENSATION
    LEVELS…STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR A TORNADO.

      1. However the LCL is VERY LOW.

        The LCL (Lifted Condensation Level) is the pressure level a parcel of air reaches saturation by lifting the parcel from a particular pressure level.

        3. Operational significance of LCL:

        Cloud bases: It determines how far air needs to be lifted to produce clouds.

        Tornado: In a supercell thunderstorm situation, a low LCL (closer to surface) increases the likelihood of tornadogenesissince the region of CAPE will be closer to the surface.

        http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/prod/rt/wrf/wrf20/2015081100/lcl.hr21.png

        Also please note on the SREF, the significant tornado ingredients
        has nothing. The significant tornado parameter is 1 for only 1 or 2 ensemble members and is basically non-existent.

        Some conflicting parameters.

        IF we had this set up with the CAPE, LI and severity of the
        storms last week, there certainly would have been a tornado somewhere.

        Today, a remote chance I suppose, but the risk is very low imho.

        Will watch for any changes later.

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