Saturday Forecast Update

265 Comments

7:55AM

DAYS 1-5…
Here it comes. Classic Summer weather. This is the pattern we have suspected would be getting established at some point during the back-half of Summer. Flat ridge of high pressure will be dominant across the eastern US with occasional disturbances trying to push though as the jet streams sits not that far to the north will be the overall set-up that quickly establishes itself this weekend and remains next week. One such disturbance, represented by a weakening and dissipating cold front, may produce a few showers and thunderstorms today, with a second shot at the same type of thing Tuesday. Largely, however, the next 5 days will be rain-free, warm to hot, and on the humid side.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring areas north and west of Boston during the first half of the afternoon and further to the southeast later in the day. More humid. Highs 78-83 South Coast, 84-89 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 80-85 Cape Cod and immediate shorelines, 86-91 elsewhere. Wind light variable with light sea breezes.
MONDAY: Sunny. Humid. Lows 65-73. Highs 88-95.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Isolated thunderstorms. Lows 65-73. Highs 86-93.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-73. Highs 86-93.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)…
Often humid, warm to hot, and limited shower/thunderstorm chances throughout the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)…
More of the same with above normal temperatures and near to below normal rainfall, though some threat of scattered heavier showers/thunderstorms at times.

265 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast Update”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Please keep showers and T-storms AWAY from Boston. Nothing between 4 and 10PM.
    Thank you.

      1. I hope you mean that you’re optimistic we can keep the
        rain way and not that I am being optimistic?

        Thanks

  3. Thank you. Old Salty…I hope your day is perfect and that your son and spouse have a long and happy marriage. Hugs to you all.

    1. Thank you. You are so kind.
      It is outdoors. Checked out tent last night. Very substantial.
      It would keep all dry in the event of an unwanted Shower.

      I am doing my “NO RAIN DANCE”. Pretty pathetic, I am sorry to say.

      For my wife, house is cool to start. No matter what, at least it didn’t start
      out hot.

  9. Thanks tk 🙂

    1 week from today begins Fall Aeration over seeding’s. The busiest time of the year starts at this time, and continues till about mid Oct, then winterizers and lime visits till early December. Keep the weather good. 🙂

  10. Make it so #1

    LASTLY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MASS
    COASTLINE…AFTER 18Z WHEN WINDS ALOFT SLACK OFF IN THE 900-800 MB
    LEVELS.

    1. Is the wedding near enough to the coast for the sea breeze to help? I cannot remember the location. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for a breeze for Mrs OS

      1. Depends on the strength of it. I is literally down the street
        from our house, say 1,000-1,500 feet from us and about
        5-6 miles from the airport. IF sea breeze is NE, then
        we could benefit. Less so if East. IF SouthEast this time of
        yea, no benefit at all as it would have to traverse 20 miles over
        land. Thank you Vicki.

        Heat is one concern, but RAIN is another. Looks like the
        ceremony is safe at 4:30. Could come down in buckets during
        the festivities. Rain, if any around the 7-9 time frame. Hopefully all would be done eating and it would be just DJ time.

        1. I know we will all be thinking of you as we watch the radar and keeping our fingers crossed. It is such a special day for the couple but also for the parents.

    1. Is there an initialized hour that we could match up with the current radar and see how its handling things …….

      That way, we might be able to give credence to its future projections.

      I’d be curious to see if it correctly projected the 2 or 3 tiny, light showers that are currently out there in all of New England now.

  12. Th Observer at Logan has nodded off again. Still no 11 AM report.

    PATHETIC!()&*(@#&(!&@#*&!@*(#&(*!&@#*!@#(&

        1. Indeed !

          We are headed out. I wish all the best for everything Jp Dave. Hopefully, the weather behaves for the rest of the day !! Enjoy !!!!!!!

  14. Sea Breeze at Logan. Unfortunately, wind is from 150 Degrees, completely negating
    ANY effect for us here in JP. Bummer
    I can only wish that is stiffens and the wind backs.

    1. Jp Dave – Have a wonderful day and hoping the rain holds off or doesn’t even come in your area. Best wishes to all!

  15. Thanks, TK.

    I kind of like the summer heat now because it’s getting late in the summer and we know it won’t be long before Fall sets in. I am kind of fantasizing about roast turkey, stuffing, cool, crisp nights. Not quite ready to say the word Snow just yet. Just enjoying the rest of the summer. This summer seemed to go by fast – to me, anyway.

    1. Working on that

      Assuming any air guests are here. Traffic up and down easy coast has a ground halt due to glitch in VA.

      2. The few guests that were coming via air, arrived yesterday.
        We’re good in that department. Thank you.

    1. 82 at the airport.

      88.5 here and still rising. CRAP! TOO WARM!!! just too WARM!!!
      We’re going to die!

        1. I didn’t see any. Not sure there is enough juice to run them.

          Getting close. have to leave the house in an hour and 1/2.

  20. We had our own personal thunderstorm from about 1:20-2:00. It poured and we had some very loud thunders, but no visible lightning. Now, at 2:26, the sun is out, and I expect we might have another round at some as the temperature rises again. Noticing more scattered activity on the radar, too.

  21. I am noticing a trend, I think.

    Storms seem to be fizzling as the move Eastward and SouthEastward.
    NWS said best support is North of MA Pike. perhaps, just perhaps we
    can keep them out of here.

  22. Charlie’s storms are completely gone. They were falling apart about as soon as they formed. I think they are hitting the Invisible field we all put up for you JP Dave

    And I just saw the pic of the setup. It is beautiful.

  23. Yuck! Just hit 90 here. Getting ready to leave. GROSS!!!
    Horrible! Gross disgusting weather! I hate it.

    Why 90 today? I know why, to make us all miserable. Why not?

    I can see a couple of boomers just to the East. Wish we would get a cooling
    outflow from them (not to fuel another though)

  24. In Pembroke, watching a large cumulus cloud that takes up a good part of the southern sky, but does not cover from lower horizon to lower horizon (west to east) ….. and yet, it is producing lightning, thunder and I can see the rain falling from it. It seems to be intensifying ….

    Sorry to see it so warm and very humid today Jp Dave.

  26. It’s hot, but not brutal, in my opinion. Of course, we’re in for a stretch of this. At a certain point, I’ll definitely want to usher in fall with a cool snap.

    Good luck, JP Dave! I hope Mrs. OS is handling the heat allright.

    Gosh, looks like the Red Sox got their metaphorical kick in the pants by way of Farrell’s announcement. It’s a football score – 19-6. Of course, the season is long over. Save those runs for next year. One thing I do not want is for the front office to trade Bradley. Bradley may be an all star sooner rather than later. He’s always been able to hit at Triple-A, and now it appears he’s able to hit major league pitching. Best fielder I’ve ever seen in a Red Sox uniform. Keep him, trade Ramirez and eat salary. Trade Sandoval and eat more salary.

    1. Hanley will make a fine DH…for some other team 🙂
      Pablo is salvageable and even he has admitted he needs to drop some weight (20 lbs sounds right) and get in better shape for next season.
      37 runs in 2 games…but then again they are playing the Mariners.

    2. I think Farrell will get well (I pray) and then take a different role in the organization. Lovullo will be the manager next year, is my guess.

      1. A couple of Thunderstorms just to my east and one over the outer harbor just north of Hull. Also one down in Charlie’s neck of the woods.

              1. And I was just about to say there seems to be a lack of lightning when all huge flash and immediate loud clap of thunder right over head. Disconnected the antennas very quickly.

                1. Wow. They are really popping up quickly. I’m hoping the one from here falls apart as it moves east. It seems to have grown a relative right behind it

  28. Must of had a nice storm in pembroke everything is drenched and chairs were knocked over on back deck. I was spending the afternoon in Braintree where there was no rain.

      1. Thanks Tom . Lightning detected 2.6 miles away according to the alert I just received. Tom what’s the vibe in marshfield with the fairview closing .

        1. I dont know about the town in general, but I’m a bit sad to see it go. Went up there a couple times a year and always got a good meal and good service and of course, you couldnt beat the view.

          1. Big loss Tom for that area. Wondering if the crowd will follow to pembroke. September 7th is our anniversary and we have been going there for the last few years. This year not going because we will be celebrating in a bigger way.

      2. I’m with you, Vicki!
        It started with just a little pea size hail mix in, but thankfully that was it! My car already has enough hail damage from the previous hailstorm- looks like a someone played Ping-Pong on its roof.

    1. Where’s JP Dave’s son’s wedding? In JP? I hope the event gets spared. He’s been worried about rain on the 15th for the past 6 weeks.

      2. Another storm just blew up in the Randolph/Holbrook area. Looks to be moving in my direction.

  33. Another storm popping quickly just south of the one thats on Boston’s doorstep …..

    And, on the weatherunderground radar loop, behind the cell I think that is near you Vicki, is an outflow boundary thats developed from storms over north central MA.

    1. It is Tom. Thanks for explanation. It came up literally right behind firsf which also developed right over us. Lightening intense

        1. and Boston Harbor going out many many miles, is getting hit quite hard.

          I kind of wonder how many people get out there in their boats, on a weekend day, when its very summery.

        1. You guys be safe. Daughter is also worrying about and and said to tell you rain on wedding say is good luck.

          Mac and I had rain and snow and Thunder snow and it was great luck so …..

      2. The second one seems to have an ESE motion to it. It could clip me after the one to my SW comes through. There is also one just off to the North of Hull that seems to be moving SSE.

  42. Pouring Rain….some wind…lots of thunder and good amount of lightning…all overhead right now. I was sitting here doing some radio related work and one of my desktops shut down right after a clap of thunder overhead. The other desktop was unaffected. Rebooted the machine and that shut and everything is fine.

    1. Poor typing on my part. The last line should read “Rebooted the machine that shut down and everything is fine”.

    2. And now they warn it. I thought it should have been warned here. Trees bending, thunder and lightening intense. I think that is it for now but each formed in a blink so who knows

    2. Please don’t go by this and do whatever to keep everyone safe, but I’m throwing out there that maybe this warned storm slides SW of you OS.

  47. Hasn’t been much action in Back Bay. Some rain, which has dissipated, a little thunder, and practically no wind. Perhaps the next round will have more punch. I realize these storms are localized. Other parts of Boston like JP may be having more rain, wind, and thunder.

  48. Another storm seems to have formed over the Randolph area again. Heading my way. And I do think that larger one over Dover and Dedham will slide in to my area behind it.

  49. Holy lightning bolt Batman….just had a strike about maybe a mile or so south of me. Yikes

    1. That’s what we were having. And it wss toward the last third of the system. What is the risk to your antennae. Or is it protected as long as it is not “on”

      1. The antenna could probably survive a lightning strike and as long as it’s not connected everything else will be fine. The only thing that could take a hit is the rotor box that the antenna mast sits in.

        I just disconnected the cable/internet modem coax and now I’m on the other computer on the Wifi connection. Lots of thunder and lightning and even a little hail.

          1. They really don’t do much with a direct of close by hit in terms of protection of the equipment that the antenna is plugged into.

  50. Seeing gusty SW winds here feeding right into these storms with lightning to my north.

    Combined with the earlier sunset, it’s making for a dark evening.

  52. I wonder if the storm to our west make it to the coast? Other than the first storm, everything else has just skirted us with a little light rain and a few distant rumbles of thunder.

    1. I think they should slowly lose strength with loss of daytime heating and they would be heading into an atmosphere already worked over by these storms.

  53. Vicki asked whether the storms are mostly south of me. Yes, for sure. Almost nothing happening in Back Bay, except dark clouds. We did have a brief period of rain and a little thunder. But that was 45 minutes to an hour ago.

    1. I am surprised the first missed you. Not so much the second. First must have been just south of you

  54. South Shore has been a magnet for severe weather for the past 7 months.

    I’ll never ever forget how much snow Hingham still had back on March 29th (!) when I drove down to do the 10k in Cohasset. Then the thunder snow back in February. And many more t-storms this summer than Boston.

  57. Line to the west looks to be bearing down. Will these systems have taken enough from the atmosphere to rob the energy for them?

  59. More rain drops in Boston. Line of storms to the west – at least 50 miles away – looks impressive. But, will it hold together? Probably enough for some locales to get nailed again in a couple of hours.

  60. Big flash just to the west here (over in Weymouth) and then blast of thunder…the whole house shook for 5 seconds…felt like an earthquake or bomb blast.

  61. We dodged a bullewith 2nd
    Storm as it passed to south.
    1st storm took down a largtree down the
    Street blocking the street.
    Very close to our house
    Perhpas 200 feet away.
    Hope to have photo later

  62. It’s fascinating to watch this batch of storms. Another cell developed just SW of Marshfield, while the one to the north maintains and is passing through.

    Meanwhile, in spite of an outflow boundary having pushed well southwest of these storms, the western edge of the storms keeps back building.

      1. It’s probably too simple an explanation, but in general, we saw a lot of sun from mid morning to early afternoon, more than I was expecting anyway, it got to near 90F with near 70F dewpoint and perhaps that’s the reason it seems this disturbance has really maximized with thunderstorms.

  67. I’ve opened the windows to cool things off inside. It’s definitely cooler than it was (10-15 degree drop). Still very little rain or thunder in Boston. This can change, of course.

      1. It’s absolutely pouring buckets too. Hopefully this doesn’t ruin the gravel I just put down for my patio

          1. I literally just finished the last layer and was running the compactor over it when I was seeing the lightning in the distance. Got it done just in time

        1. It’s intense, it just keeps backfilling right over me. Lightning every couple seconds, it’s awesome

  69. Lost in all the thunderstorms, not too long before the first batch of storms around 4pm, Logan briefly switched to a west southwest wind and jumped to 91F. Day #7.

    1. Felt quite warm in Boston around 4pm as I was doing errands. I think Boston tops 90 several more times this month. But, I’m seeing signs of a lull in the heat by next weekend. Whether that’s a prolonged lull or not remains to be seen.

      Vicky, you’re right about it still being a bit muggy. but, it feels a bit cooler than it was.

      1. Looks that way, worst of heat probably thru Tuesday. Somewhat lower temps later next week may come with oppressive humidity with more of a due S wind.

    1. No, I don’t think anyone did.

      I wouldn’t call these storms “isolated” or “scattered” even though Boston has not really gotten into the action yet. I think most cities and towns will have had their share of t-storms when all is said and done.

      1. It is also starting to move some now. Maybe finally getting pushed by the stuff coming from the west as that seems to be moving along.

  73. Wow, just got back from a week on Cape Cod- Orleans, my grandparents have a house there and they’re nice enough to let us use it. Spectacular week- Tuesday was the only rainy day, and man did it pour, all day long. Must have been close to 2″ of rain. But other than that, great beach weather. Rested up and ready for school to start back up in a couple weeks!

    Quite a severe weather event today, no? Some slow movers, lots of localized rain with some severe weather/damage. Not very well forecast, not too many instances of thunderstorm events overperforming lately. Looks like several of the short range models handled it alright though.

    1. Sounds like you had a good week? HRRR keeps things going while weakening a bit til midnight or a little after.

  74. Driving up 495 coming home, I had an awesome view of this storm sitting over Norfolk County. You could see it building west, and was able to confirm it with radar. Very cool stuff. Lots of lightning and thunder here in Wrentham, but the bulk of the storm is missing north and east.

  76. Looking at the various radar loops it looks like Boston gets scraped a little rain in an hour or so, but South Shore to Providence stand a better chance of getting some severe weather. Caveat is that the storms hold together, which they may not.

  78. Cell starting to intensify over the harbor heading toward my area.

    Just heard on the scanner of a possible fire in Sharon via a lightning strike

    1. I can confirm fire trucks went blasting down S. Main Street a little while ago. The bolt was very close.

  84. Seeing that cell out just east of Boston and north of Hull ….. The main road in Hull continues quite a way past Nantasket Beach and it eventually leads out to where its sandy and gravelly ….. and straight ahead of you is Boston Harbor, with Boston straight ahead of you. To sit there and watch that view and also, the currents of either the incoming or outgoing tide are strong and easily noticeable.

    Anyhow, about 16 years ago, I remember being at that tip and having a thunderstorm come in from the harbor after hitting Boston and its a very interesting place to take in a thunderstorm at.

    1. Tom are you talking about Point Allerton? I haven’t but up there in a while. I usually go and watch the weather down by the High School at Hull Gut.

      1. Keith, I apologize, I dont know the names of the area at all. My wife knew the area better and we hung out in the Nantasket area a lot during the summer of 1999, as she was from Dorchester and we both love the beach.

        I remember the area I described above came not too long after passing a nice set of townhouses/condos that were on a small island in the harbor, accessible by car via a short road off of the main road.

        While we have returned to Nantasket Beach on occasion, its been a while since we went all the way to the end.

        1. Ok…That’s the same general area I’m talking about. Spinaker Island is the place with the condos. Hull gut is a great place to watch storms, boats, etc. Peddocks Island is right across the gut.

  86. It must still be quite unstable region wide because there’s a cell now popping on 128 a bit west-northwest of Boston and an even stronger cell on rte 495 further west and north of the cell on 128.

  89. Boston’s got its anti t-storm shield up. Storms over the Bay, storms to our west, storms to our south. Almost nothing in the Hub. Strange.

  90. That Worcester thunderstorm still means business.

    They just had a special ob showing a wind gust to 40 knots, along with a 1/4 mile visibility in heavy rain.

      1. Trying to nowcast the radar, I wonder if the thunder you are hearing is from the two cells that seemed to have pop nearby you. If so, you may be hearing thunder for a while.

        1. I think you are right. They just appeared over us again. Daughter trying to get kids to bed before the worst hits.

  96. Worcester storm looks to go north and south of us with a bit in middle over us. What an outstanding light show

  97. If I’m reading the Worcester obs correctly, they have received .60 in 15 minutes and 1.31 inches of rain in 27 minutes.

  99. Boston on track to get grazed yet again (with mostly light rain), but I think from Norwood to Attleboro (Charlie) along I-95 there will be plenty of action, and of course along the 495 corridor. I also expect parts of the South Shore to get several more storms.

    2. Tells you how localized the rains can be. Back Bay is not soaked. Did get some spotty rain, but my guess is less than .10 of an inch. Perhaps a little more on the way.

      1. Just starting to rain now and is heavy. Heard a few pieces of hail hit window but thankfully short lived.

        As I type it just went to torrential rain

        1. One would then think Boston gets some more rain out of this series of storms, but we’ll have to wait and see.

  110. Me thinks my rain gauge has not been working. Two,Wunder framingham stations report 2.38 and 2.75. The three closest to us are also not working so I have no idea as I am not familiar with these two. Doesn’t feel to me as if we got nearly 3 inches. I just know my gauge is not working.

  111. Looks like a light rain for next 30 min’s before it stops, that was fun, goodnight .19 so far, thought we would receive more, but still good 🙂

  113. So basically I was in NH for hours on end, driving 90% of the time with ever-changing plans in one of the weirdest day of my nearly half-century of living. Not getting into any details about that right now. But I’m well aware of the nastiness and persistence of the storms down in MA, which nobody foresaw. It was like the Summer version of one of those massive snow dumpings that nobody had forecast.

    When things like this happen, of course as a forecaster you feel bad about missing the scope of an event, but what changed with me is I used to worry more that people would be “angry”. I actually don’t care about that anymore as I give priority to hoping that everybody made it through the event safely… 🙂

    Now on we go. Will be updating shortly. Still recovering from a very long day and night. And not in the greatest heath today. 😛

    1. TK everyone missed it. You’d even think with the earlier storms in the same area as the later storms there wouldn’t have been energy for something so spectacular

      Angry? You are smart not to worry….why concern yourself with someone who believes we can always understand nature and weather. Darned but it was an exciting night. And Ya know, in addition to the excitement and awe, it was just nice to see everyone on here watching for old salty too. You have to not only love our part of the country for the surprises it has (loved your snow comparison) but this blog for the great people.

      Very glad you are safe also.

      Stepping down from my sunday am soap box now

  114. Good morning. I guess my rain gauge blew over sooner than I thought as we had over three inches. Funny thing is that, even though it was dark, I was sitting in the window through the entire event and it never seemed to rain that hard.

    This was on Framingham Patch this am “One weather station in Framingham had a report of 2.01 inches of water an hour. Another weather station reported 2.81 inches of rain in 76 minutes and 2.94 inches of rain for Saturday, August 15. One weather station in neighboring Natick, which also experienced flooding on Route 9, has 3.38 inches of rain for Saturday.”

    Those were the only weather stations on Wunder showing rain. My go to Wunder stations that have proven reliable were ubable to show rain.

    1. Here at home, my back-up observers tell me we had no direct hits (which I could tell from radar). A grand total of one trace of rain fell here.

  116. Good morning all.

    Thank you all for you concern and well wishes yesterday.

    The event went beautifully. Every one had a great time.
    We had some excitement with that first storm. The wind surprised the
    hell out of me as all I read all day was that the winds aloft were light,
    thus NO strong winds. Bull Shit!!

    The wind blew over every table outside of the tent and nearly took the tent
    down. People were actually holding the tent in place as the wind tried
    to lift it. Unbelievable. In addition it poured buckets but no hail that I could
    tell. One good thing, it cooled things off considerably as it was freakin HOT!!!

    2nd storm just missed us to the South. I was super worried about that one.
    We had some more thunder and lightning and a bit more rain.

    3rd system came after the event. It rained pretty good for a decent amount of time.
    Great lightning display lighting up entire sky.

    Finally I could open the windows in the house around Midnight.

    I haven’t checked email to see if anyone emailed photos of big tree down.
    If I get them, I shall post. By the time I got home, the tree was cleaned up.
    all that was left was an 8-10 foot stump of what was a 2 foot diameter large tree.
    It snapped right off 8-10 feet up. Amazing. Literally 200 feet from my house.

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