Tuesday Forecast Update

112 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5…
Heat + humidity + disturbance = risk of showers and thunderstorms today. Threat diminishes considerably for midweek as the overall air flow turns southeast and is more stable despite being warm and humid. A front approaching Thursday night and Friday will bring an increased risk for showers/thunderstorms again, and may hang around to produce additional showers/storms on Saturday.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms midday and afternoon. Any storms may be briefly strong with heavy downpours and gusty wind. Highs 85-93. Wind light SW most of the time.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible early. Patchy fog. Lows 65-73. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible mainly interior areas. Highs 84-91 but turning cooler some coastal areas. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible mainly interior areas. Lows 66-74. Highs 82-90.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY : Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows 65-73. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)…
Muggy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms August 23. Lesser chance of showers/storms August 24-27. Temperatures above normal during the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)…
Temperatures continue above normal, rainfall near to below normal with a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms at times.

112 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast Update”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Last evening was a brutal Summer night. Hardly lovely imho.

    Some funky looking cumulus out there. A precursor to something later?

    Sticky, yucky, awful out there!

    1. HRRR, on the other hand, says differently.

      It shows convection in the Boston area this afternoon.

      Who ya gonna believe? SPC or TK
      My money is with TK. 😀

  5. 6Z NAM CAPE

    18Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=015&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=012

    21Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=012&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=015

    6Z GFS CAPE

    18Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=015&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=012

    21Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=012&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=015

    REMARKABLE DISCREPANCY there 12 hours away. AMAZING!!!

    Now I’ll check the CMC

    1. 06Z CMC-RDPS / Explorer CAPE

      18Z

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=CAPE&hh2=015&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=012

      21Z

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=CAPE&hh2=012&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=015

      CMC-HRDPS / Explorer

      18Z

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=cmc_hrdps&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=cmc_hrdps&stn2=CAPE&hh2=013&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=012

      21Z

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

      Looks to me like the GFS is out to lunch.

  7. Today’s cells will be pulse type or isolated one-timers. Cannot rule out a cell strong enough for brief hail and strong wind enough to warrant a severe thunderstorm warning. This would be very isolated. Movement will be slow and generally northeast to north. But keep in mind that pulse storms can redevelop in any fashion and can give the impression of erratic motion when in fact it is a series of short lived cells drifting with the overall flow or being steered by a local storm-related boundary.

    1. Excellent explanation. Many thanks

      And this is due to light winds aloft and thus lack of shear.
      BUT, there is significant instability so even if pulsing, they can be
      briefly strong, even severe. Correct?

      What do you make of the SPC excluding a chunk of SNE from the
      “General” thunderstorm threat, while NWS is calling for possible
      strong to severe storms.

      It’s that kind of crap that drives me nuts.

      Again, I’ll listen to you and NOT them. Many thanks

      1. Yes it is true.

        They are just displaying differing opinions. One believes the sea breeze stabilizing influence will be stronger.

        1. Over the years, I have seen that the sea breeze, this time of year mind you, can contribute to the instability, unlike
          earlier in the season.

          We shall see. NAM and HRRR believe it will contribute.

          We have to remember that the SPC are a bunch of land lubbers and don’t know much about the effects of the sea. 😀 😀 😀

  8. STICKORAMA once again out there today.
    I hope I am saying SNOWORAMA quite a few times this winter. I have to think cool thoughts on a day like today.
    Gil Simmons yesterday in CT was commenting on the Old Farmers’ Almanac saying way too early to be sticking your neck out on that one with the Old Farmers’ Almanac calling for a cold snowy winter.

  10. Looks like we have our newest depression in the eastern Atlantic as of 11am. Also an area southeast of Hawaii that is forecast by both the GFS and Euro to develop to different intensities and threaten Hawaii later this weekend/early next week.

    1. Depression 4 is forecast to become a hurricane. We shall see.

      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
      12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
      24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
      36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
      48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
      72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
      96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
      120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

  11. From NWS…

    THE RESULT OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT ANYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…ELEVATED AREAS SUCH AS EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKS/WORCESTER HILLS AS WELL LOCATIONS NEAR THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WILL HAVE
    SOMEWHAT OF A HIGHER RISK.

    1. And Logan does indeed have a sea breeze already. Wind from 130, which
      is a good direction for sea breeze supported convection this time of year.
      It is not particularly strong at this point, but perhaps will grow stronger
      later.

      Both NAM and HRRR support the idea of decent convection along
      Eastern MA, so we shall see.

      Not sure if I would trust the HRRR today. Current run shows convection
      in Boston for 16Z. Hmmm that’s 10 minutes from now and the SKY is
      MOSTLY CLEAR!!!!

      HRRR => HUMUS RULES RAPID REFRESH

  14. Thanks, TK.

    Radar is lighting up – but storms seem to be going nowhere. Guessing there might be flooding concerns if this trend continues and rain is heavy enough. It’s just off and on cloudy here.

    And BTW – what’s up with The Weather Channel weatherscan? For the past few wks. their radar and info. has been not working right. In fact, last wk. when we had those storms and there were warnings the weatherscan didn’t even post any warnings!

  16. Just came in from Down town. Strong sea breeze down town. Still HOT and HUMID.
    Towering cumulus all over. any with rather dark bases. No rain as of yet. Nothing
    nearby on radar, although are some echos in the rt. 128 belt. and also way West.

    Sure looks like something wants to burst almost momentarily.

    We shall see.

    OH BTW, Logan has an ENE wind from 70 degrees and that has made a difference,
    dropping temperature down to 77. That wind direction “could” stabilize the atmosphere, at least right along the coast. Did the SPC know something?

    1. Did they crawl out from underneath the rock?

      Frankly, I am fed up with the SPC and the NWS.

      Just go with TK

  21. Cells in Eastern sections are moving right along in an EastNortheasterly direction
    from what I can tell. Perhaps even more Easterly with a bit of a Northerly component.

    Nothing severe.

  26. Classic pulse storm in the 128 belt. It popped near Woburn, then one cell redeveloped eastward and a second formed right over 128 on the Woburn/Burlington line. My friend, who I am going to pick up soon for a drive, was right under the lightning core! Several strikes 1 to 2 miles from me but some very decent thunder. Briefly heavy rain but most of it was on the lighter side here. Still getting a few good cracks/rumbles to the W & N as I type this.

  27. Combustible atmosphere aloft. That’s what I’m seeing on my way home from work (Kneeland St to Beacon St.).

  30. Raining here. Some big time lightning and thunder. Not much wind. Certainly NOT
    severe, but a T-Storm none-the-less. 😀

      1. Nah, unless you saw winds >58 mph and/or severe hail
        > 1 inch in diameter or tornado. Else not severe. 😀

        It’s really tough to meet the criteria for a true severe thunderstorm, especially in the City. That’s why often times the NWS says “Strong” storm.

        1. Thanks for clarifying. I didn’t think wind had anything to do with it, but I’m obviously wrong. It was a short, but quite strong storm. Saturday’s was meek in comparison, at least in downtown Boston.

          1. Saturday’s was a monster (In JP) compared to what I just saw outside of my window. As they say
            in real estate: Location, location, location. 😀

  31. Several direct hits on Boston. It’s combustible for sure. Pouring rain. Home now, but just saw about 20 ducks at the Public Garden having a rain party. Wonder what they think of lightning and thunder.

  33. More rain in Boston from this round of storms than Saturday. As TK said, it’s hit or miss with these kinds of t-storms. Still raining in Boston at a good clip. Thunder and lightning have abated.

  34. For once, the local NWS was correct about more storms near the sea breeze
    front. Sure did materialize today.

  36. Total convection hole where I am in Wrentham, lol. Hearing a few rumbles, and have showers and storms closely surrounding me all quadrants but SE, and not a drop here.

  37. Praying to the storm gods that we get something down here that cancels football practice. My boys are going to sweltering in their helmets.

    1. I see that. Boston’s done with rain and storms for now, though the atmosphere looks and feels unstable. The storms in the 3 o’clock hour were brief but powerful. Closest I’ve seen lightning this year. Thunderclaps were few, but loud.

    1. It sure is Joshua. I have to say that their coaches are very mindful of keeping everyone safe but I sure wish they would just cancel.

  46. Is Danny a legit threat for the east coast and SNE??

    So much for El Nino protecting us from tropical activity I guess. 😉

    1. I’m pretty sure I read that El Niño would stop systems from developing off of Africa from reaching us. But that didn’t remove storm risk if developed along east coast. I have no idea where Danny developed. I remember TS Danny in 2009, I think. We were once again at Humarock. It was great

  47. In Hooksett, NH ….. Passed through edge of cells in central, NH ….

    Very hot day, cumulus were slow to develop up here, but there sure are some monsterous cumulus now.

    1. Interesting. True, Who knows? it could happen.
      More likely to get eaten by shear in the Caribbean OR
      take a turn OTS.

      Either way, it will be interesting to watch.

      Always possible it sneaks through and emerges along the SE
      coast of US as a legitimate threat to us. No way of knowing at this time.

  49. Looks like activity for Eastern MA is all over.

    Is that all there is/was? he he

    I guess some areas got a drenching. Not all that’s for sure.

      1. Well, it’s a good start. That’s for sure and although Farrell is not
        managing the team now, that is NOT the way I wanted him away
        from the team. He’ll be back next year unless something does
        not go well with his treatment and no one wants that.

  53. Danny needs to head for Puerto Rico and probably many other spots in the Caribbean that are in big time drought ….

    Been away from the weather for nearly 2 days ….. What a wrapped up storm in the upper midwest for summertime. That thing looks like it belongs to either November or springtime.

    1. Yeah was thinking that too. Those two Typhoons could change the pattern here in about two weeks depending on if they curve or not into the North Pacific, also something to watch currently southeast of Hawaii.

      1. Didn’t DT mention that awhile back and that it could bring a spell
        of unseasonably cool weather to NE in a week or two or something like that. We shall see.

  54. For anyone who thought that Brock Holt was just a utility player, I say
    PHJJE(*REYYER&Y*&^@#$%^^%%#^%#^ZZZWZ.

    1. You keep saying that, but you also need to keep in mind that just because you got 0.53 did not mean everyone got 0.53.

      I had 0.05 today.

      In contrast, there were nearly 3 inches of rain in Concord NH. It’s Summer and highly variable.

      Take a gander at the US Drought Monitor from last week. We may not be in a widespread drought but the long term dryness continues to have an impact.

      http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast

      1. If anyone is wondering what this is about it is that I didn’t know how to make a laughing face. I have emoticons on my emails and I had them on FB.

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