Wednesday Forecast Update

94 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5…
Transition from the August heat/humidity to the August warmth/mugginess as the overall flow becomes more southeasterly during this period. Eventually we end up back into a showery pattern but the timing is such that it will include the coming weekend.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-93, cooling some coastal areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to SE.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 64-72. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 80s, some upper 70s immediate coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Variably to mostly cloudy with episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)…
A return to drier August 24-26 and a few more showers/thunderstorms later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)…
Same overall pattern. Temperatures and precipitation near to above normal.

94 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast Update”

  2. Thanks tk 🙂

    The reason why I keep saying this summer has been great with rain every couple to few days is because most of my customers have gotten this rain. I don’t deal with tomatoe or squash etc etc , I deal with fine fescue, blue grass etc etc, so in my business there has been plenty of rain, we are even have been dealing with red thread and other diseases in the lawns that are usually not the case. I’ve even had to tell clients to cut back watering to every other day bc of so much water. During the summer we’ve just had there been a little to much rain to be honest. Again thanks for the forecast 🙂

  3. Thanks TK !

    Jp Dave ….. Wow, 5 STD from normal on that Northern Plains storm, that’s impressive.

    The NHC on its 5 day outlook for the Atlantic is paying attention to an upper level feature SE of New England that it gives a 30% chance of transitioning to subtropical or tropical development.

    This may at least provide ocean swells in the coming days. With the current ridge hanging strong in the western Atlantic/maritimes, I think if something develops, it may not be able to move very far, at least over the next several days.

  4. Look where the 6Z GFS places Danny on 8/31

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015081906&fh=300&xpos=0&ypos=201

    But by 9/3 look where it is

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015081906&fh=360&xpos=0&ypos=201

    An awful lot can change between now and then. That position on 8/31 is extremely
    dangerous for NE. Any changes in troughs and who knows.

    Again, a long long way away. I’m sure this will change with every single run.
    The GFS in notoriously inaccurate at this distance. It’s just fun to see the what ifs.

    1. I was living in Lowell at the time ….. Lots of rain. The Merrimack River went from summer bone dry to flood because all of the river’s watershed received multiple inches of rain.

      Winds weren’t that big a deal, peaked at 35 mph from the NE.

      I’m sure it would have been a different experience in Marshfield, with much less rain and much more wind.

      1. Yup. It was bad in Buzzards Bay and Falmouth.
        Not sure how Marshfield fared. It was nothing for Boston.
        Peak gust at Logan was 64 mph. At my house in JP, perhaps
        50-55 mph at best, possibly less. 😀

        1. Around here gust in the 40’s were common, it was nothing, the last meaningful hurricane to affect this area was Gloria around 30 yrs ago, short lived yet potent, winds gusting in the 70’s for about 3-4hrs during the afternoon that day.

            1. The voice of an angel. And why tell him he has 6-9 months. What is to say his voice won’t be as beautiful once it changes. Thank you JPD. We have all watched twice.

  7. ESPN is reporting that Brady is open to some sort of suspension but only for not cooperating . Really Tommy that’s a fine my friend they have nothing don’t throw in the towel.

    2. Perhaps it’s posturing …..

      The judge has directed both sides to reach an agreement. If Brady and the NFLPA are offering possible compromises and the NFL is offering none, it may give the judge another reason to ultimately rule on behalf of Brady.

      1. The entire suspension will be vacated.
        Goodel will lose his job as he well should.
        Pats then go after the league to get their million back
        and their draft picks back.

        GO PATS

        NFL go suck an egg!

        1. I hope you are correct, however sometimes law doesn’t always seem to follow common sense.

          I agree that common sense says the suspension should be vacated.

          Unfortunately, the decision has to be based on law. And, it’s going to take something for the judge to overrule a process, the CBA, that the players agreed to.

          I think that’s why the judge is trying to get them to work something out. My guess is he is knows the penalty is ridiculous, but that he may not be able to rule against the CBA.

          What I don’t think Goodell gets is, he may win the battle in 2015, but he’s going to lose the war in a few years because the players will never let the commissioner have this power that he has now.

          1. I think you are 100% correct, Tom. If the NFL agrees to a fine for not cooperating and agrees to document there was no tampering, I think Brady has to go for it. Remember Farve was fined for not turning over his phone. That is more than reasonable for Brady to agree to. There is a good chance he will lose in court because it is on a process both sides agreed to….as you have stated, Tom.

            1. Perhaps. I just have a feeling.

              I understand completely what you are saying. But, CBA or not, this is the USA and you can’t go punishing a person with
              no proof. I still think the judge rules in
              Tom’s favor.

              We shall see. I do not believe Brady gives in, despite the ESPN report. 😀

              1. If the trial were for whether Brady did anything wrong, I would agree. However, my understanding is the judge will rule on procedure alone and the procedure was agreed to by the union and the NFL. It is a really, really fine line but this court has a huge history of ruling against union.

                1. I am not so sure that is the judges directive. My understanding is that the sides meet again 8/31. Meanwhile the judge is studying the legal aspects of the case.
                  I believe he will end up ruling and will rule in bray’s favor. We shall see. If the NFL wins on this it will be a travesty.

                2. I understood it was the original directive. But agree with you that it may have morphed. I’m hoping Brady’s lawyers are smart enough to read between the lines. So far I am not impressed with the way his team has handled things.

  8. The NHC has now reduced the intensity forecast for Danny.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 19/1500Z 11.2N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 20/0000Z 11.4N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
    24H 20/1200Z 11.9N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
    36H 21/0000Z 12.4N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
    48H 21/1200Z 13.1N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
    72H 22/1200Z 14.4N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
    96H 23/1200Z 15.6N 56.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
    120H 24/1200Z 16.6N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

  11. This morning Al Roker showed a video of a tornado rotating in a clockwise direction instead of a normal counter-clockwise direction. He couldn’t give an explanation though of why this happened. I got the impression Al had never seen this either.

    TK and others…Any thoughts on this??

  12. Regarding Hurricane Bob in 1991:

    1. That it has been nearly a quarter century and SNE hasn’t been struck since

    2. Hurricane Sandy was certainly on a bee line for SNE coastline but decided to make a last minute left hand hook at NJ

    3. As for #1, didn’t Irene (2011) strike SNE??

    1. I think Irene was a TS. Again, we were at Humarock. I’m seeing a common theme here. Perhaps, we somehow attract them when we are near the coast? 🙂

      1. If I’m not mistaken some TS hits (especially up in our area) can produce much more wind over a wider area (the wind fields expand as the storm starts to decline in strength).

        1. I would not be surprised. Was it Irene that caused the massive flooding to our north through Vermont and NH?

          1. Yes, by the time Irene hit NE wind was not a real concern. Rain and flooding were. I visited the area in Vermont that was affected by Irene shortly after the storm. It was quite bad.

            One thing Danny could do is drag in cooler air from Canada. Maybe we will transition at that point to more manageable air. Right now, it is unmanageable. For me at least.

            1. Pinkham notch and Jackson, NH, were in really bad shape. We went to Stowe not long after and Waterbury was bad also.

            2. If Danny can change this HHH pattern we are currently in then he would be most welcome as long as he does no USA or Carribean damage. 😀

            3. In my area Irene produced some very strong winds for a two to three hour period in the mid afternoon iirc. I almost lost a long wire antenna (which hasn’t happened before) and we lost about half a dozen shutters off the house. Lots of branches and bigger limbs also came down.

  13. Tweets out of NYC Court Room indicate that Judge Berman ripped apart the
    NFL. Good news. Word is Tom’s willingness to take a game is now OFF the table.
    We shall see. IF the NFL doesn’t budge, I think Brady’s camp takes their chances
    with the Judge.

    1. Judge was particularly irritated that the NFL had Pash EDIT the Wells report and then Pash was not made available during Brady’s appeal. The Judge really let the NFL have it!!!! In other words it wasn’t even close to an independent report with the NFL tweaking the report to their liking. This gets better all the time. 😀

  15. For anyone who says that Bob wasn’t a big deal, talk to the families of the 6 people that died, refund 1.5 billion dollars worth of damage which in today’s value would be 35 Billion. Peak wind gusts at 105 Block Island and 96 in Chatham, but hey it didn’t impact me so who cares. Very selfish to think that way, that’s one of the biggest problems in our country.

    All anyone cares about is themselves, unfortunately this is what we have become as a nation. I always conduct myself by caring about others and making sure I help people and show real care and concern even for strangers. I guess it’s the way I was raised.

    2. I guess your talking to me, I said it wasn’t as bad as Gloria, a matter of fact, there was more wind in a bigger area across the state from Gloria than bob, just saying it wasn’t as bad in my area as bob, Bob was a little brother IMO 🙂

  16. I think if anything changes our pattern it would be the combination of Danny and the cyclones out in the Pacific. The Pacific storms I believe will have a bigger impact on our future climtae, especially if they are larger cyclones.

    1. The only chance is the 2 typhoons and even with those, they might play against each other and not change a damn thing.

      Danny isn’t going to do didly, unless it blows up the Hudson as a Cat 5 and heads into Northern Canada. About as likely my swimming across the Atlantic.

  18. Going back 3 posts and removing anything I don’t find necessary.

    Harsher action is next.

    I want responsible behavior here. I don’t think that’s really much to ask for.

    Now that we have that clear…

    _____________________________________________________

    The tropical activity in the western Pacific is not going to be a major pattern changer this time. This time the energy will be largely absorbed by the jet stream and the overall pattern will remain unchanged. The result of big storms out there is not the same every time and is dependent on several factors.

  19. Hmmm

    Boston, Beverly and Plymouth all reporting a seabreeze with a SE wind, yet
    Marshfield is reporting a wind from 220 gusting to 15 knots? Something isn’t right.
    Marshfield’s ob is 1/2 hour older. Something change suddenly?

    2. That ob …… Its temp and dewpoint are sometimes suspect, now the wind direction too ? 🙂

      It looks pretty much due south to me, maybe even a little east of due south. Also, the clouds are behaving like yhe wind direction is 180 or so, because these low cumulus have cleared a good part of the overhead and eastern sky.

      1. Thank you for the confirm. I wonder if the automated site
        has been vandalized? or otherwise compromised?
        Or just plain ole malfunctioning? 😀

    1. Our friends from Taunton talk about that in their discussion.

      SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…AS STATED ABOVE…THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AS MENTIONED…WILL LEAN TOWARDS MORE OF AN ECMWF SOLUTION /SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS/. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED WET WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOW
      PRESSURE EAST OF NANTUCKET BRINGING IN CONTINUED MOISTURE ON SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

          1. All global models have this system in one form or another and ALL close enough to affect us as well.

            I Pick door #2. We shall see on this one.

    1. To me, a very uncomfortable 86F.

      Its funny, I’ll go outside and get somewhat used to it and think ….. Ok, not too bad …….

      ……… until, I get back into the A/C and see what a dry 75F feels like.

      1. Yup, I am having the same trouble.
        I don’t know what we would do without the 3 window
        AC units we have operational. Those 3 rooms for refuge
        makes all the difference in the world.

        One thing good about this wind and direction change.
        It allows the house to cool down at night.

        Last night it cooled off beautifully, while the night before
        it was like a Turkish sauna ALL NIGHT LONG!!!!!

        BIG difference.

  22. Thanks TK for all your hard work on the blog this summer. What’s your feeling on coverage and frequency of showers and storms for Saturday? Particularly Saturday late afternoon through the evening hours? Been planning a surprise bday for my wife for months now and the talk of rain is making me lose sleep.

    1. I think Saturday it becomes most widespread for several hours during the day but I am not sure of the timing yet. It also may be in a fairly narrow band, that is, under 100 miles wide, so placement will be important.

      Sunday I think we end up more in-and-out showers and sunshine.

      This may change as it’s a bit of an early outlook.

  24. A while ago, someone here (can’t remember the handle) posted that they were getting far away FM stations on the dial. I think it’s was WAAF (107.3). Well, last night (around 8:30 pm) I picked up “The Hawk” from the Jersey Shore on 105.7 instead of WROR. I also had a classical music station from the mid-Cape rather than WAAF, and a country station from Cape Cod as well on 103.7 where I usually hear the Red Sox game.

    Did anyone post what they thought it was? Solar flares? The thunderstorms in the area?

    I’d appreciate anybody’s thoughts and theories.

    1. That might have been me. My hobby is long distance radio listening (Dxng). I dx FM, AM, Shortwave and so on. What you heard was FM stations coming in on tropospheric ducting. Here is a wiki link explaining it.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropospheric_propagation

      Your catch of the Hawk is WCHR from Monmouth NJ (about 210 miles from me here in NJ). The further away from WROR’s signal the easier it would be to hear WCHR under tropo ducting conditions.

      In almost 20 years in the hobby I’ve logged well over 2000 FM stations from the U.S., Canada and the Bahamas. I’ve also logged over 900 AM stations from North and South America, Europe, Africa and the mideast.

      Your classical station on 107.3 must have been bleed over from Chatham’s WFCC which is actually on 107.5. Some strong signals can bleed over to into adjacent channels as a lot today’s radios have poor front ends allowing for this type of “interference” to occur.

      Where are you located?

        1. Over the next several days (in fact quite often now through early October) this type of ducting happens toward the SW or NE….you might hear more 🙂

      2. Right now I’m hearing CBD (a CBC station) from St John New Brunswick on 91.3 (mixing with a weaker station WFMR from Orleans on the Cape).

  25. Charlie here your comment from earlier : “it was nothing”

    Around here gust in the 40â€ēs were common, it was nothing, the last meaningful hurricane to affect this area was Gloria around 30 yrs ago, short lived yet potent, winds gusting in the 70â€ēs for about 3-4hrs during the afternoon that day.

    1. I guess my point to say I don’t care about people is plain wrong, when just today we donated $400 to the jimmy fund. You took the text wrong per usual, never judge, yes that’s what I said, and we are not selfish, we care about others, again Gloria was much worse around here than Bob was, that is all 🙂

  26. Yvonne Craig aka BATGIRL died today of breast cancer at age 78. 🙁

    1937-2015

    She and Neil Hamilton (aka Commissioner Gordon) appeared together years earlier on a Perry Mason episode in 1958. How ironic. 🙂

      1. From what I can see it was 86. It must have jumped very briefly
        between 17:54 (86) and 18:54. (85) At 17:54 wind was 180
        at 18:54 it was 110. So somewhere in there it jumped then fell back when the wind shifted, I presume.

  28. 18Z GFS destroys Danny in the Caribbean and then resurrects him in the gulf.
    Hits Alabama/Mississippi and heads up towards Chicago and dies.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2015081918&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=240

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2015081918&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=288

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2015081918&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=300

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2015081918&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=312

    1. I would love a hurricane, I hope no one get hurt, but would lov Mother Nature to spin something up here, as we know, there not good chances, and even if it came up, chances are it would become sub tropical, we can hope 🙂

  31. At Logan in August …..

    The first 4 days were 90, 88, 90 and 89 and the last six days, including today, have all been 86F or warmer.

    Thats 10 out of the first 19 days at 86F or warmer.

    Without today, the month is running a +2.1F temperature departure.

  33. I’m liking the term fundamental fairness. 18 cases have been vacated based on that. I’m not counting my chicks but still hopeful re Brady

    And on weather news…Today felt great. ACs on tonight though Kids think it feels more humid after sunset. It is 72 with a 70 DP at 11:00

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