Friday Forecast Update

173 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5…
No changes from previous. Lots of moisture, approaching front from the west today that then stalls and slowly dissipates over the weekend through Monday, low pressure to the southeast. The players remain the same and the forecast is largely unchanged.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and a chance of locally heavier thunderstorms. Muggy. Highs 72-77 coast, 77-82 interior. Wind light SE to S.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Highs 75-82.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Highs 75-82.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs 77-84.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)…
Temperatures near normal early in the period then warming to above normal later in the period with mostly dry weather through mid period then a few showers/thunderstorms later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)…
Temperatures above normal through the period with a high pressure ridging dominating. Rainfall below normal.

173 thoughts on “Friday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks TK, it’s poured at times here in Wrentham this morning, o.92″ of rain in total so far today.

      1. Thank you, North. That sure does show how unpredictable this particular rain is. It is great to have folks from the different locations on here to be able to see the difference just a few miles can make.

  3. Thank you.

    That’s a good amount of rain WxW. Only 0.10 here so far but I do hear thunder in the distance

  4. Thanks, TK.

    Got very dark here and started to pour. Still raining.

    Doppler radar shows big area of rain coming in from the west and another area of rain moving south to north. Interesting.

    To me, it looks and feels very tropical outside. I don’t sense Fall at all, w/the exception of the shortening of the days and nights. The weather is very much like August right now.

  5. Good morning.

    Yes Vicki, East of you. Been raining here for about 1/2 hour or so.
    No thunder.

    Last night Eric mentioned the possibility of Strong to severe storms tomorrow.

    We shall see.

  6. NHC has danny down to 45 mph by 12Z 8/26 over Hispanola.

    Most Global models have Danny go poof.

    However, one Hurricane model, the GFDL has Danny fizzle pretty good in the
    Eastern Caribbean, but regenerate and begin to become a Force “just” North
    of Hispanola 12/z on the 26th.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082106/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_04L_22.png

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015082106-danny04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    Back up to an 80 mph Hurricane.

    “usually” the GFDL is a decent Hurricane model, so We’ll just continue monitoring.
    I would say odds favor an eventual dissipation, but who knows for sure.

  7. This is why I didn’t try to rope the rain into certain times in this forecast. It is possible anytime anywhere today.

    1. TK, you nailed it. No worries.

      Oh, btw, any comments on what Eric Fisher said last night about
      “possible” strong to severe storms tomorrow?

      Without really investigating yet, my quick gut reaction to that was:
      Huh? What?

      Thanks

    1. “Braking” => “Breaking” How did I do that? Too early, I guess. 😀
      OR do I have vehicles on my brain?

      1. I typed there in place of their the other day and another similar and just shook my head. Ain’t it great to get old. Although I prefer to think our brains move so quickly our fingers cannot keep up.

        1. Yes, yes that’s it. Our brains are so developed that
          they are zipping along and our hands and fingers are
          lagging behind. Yes, that’s it for sure!

          1. there instead of their
            there instead of they’re
            your instead of you’re

            DRIVE ME NUTS!!!

            Sometimes it is a simple typo, sometimes it is a convenience with a mobile device (I often skip an ‘ ) and sometimes it means something else entirely.

    3. rainshine had mentioned that the system further west was moving to the east while the eastern system/line was moving north. Seems the system to the west shifted from W-E to S-N right before our eyes. Fascinating.

  9. Interesting from our “friends” at the Taunton NWS office

    OVERALL…SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
    VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
    NONETHELESS…GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE CAN NOT
    RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

  11. This was described a bit differently by Rainshine earlier….

    Look on the latest radar loop.

    It looks to me like a major convergence zone is going to set up over Eastern SNE.
    The echoes from the front are moving generally Eastward and about to meet up
    with echoes moivng from the South just South of RI and move up into Eastern Sections.

    I am not sure what will happen when this occurs.

    Heavier rain pretty likley. Thunder and lightning perhaps. IS? this where the NWS
    gets their “possibility” of a strong to severe storm or 2??? I sure don’t know

    Just looks might interesting to me.

  12. Raining harder down this end of Boston with thunder. It’s been on and off raining since around 5 am in the longwood area but more on. Pouring right now!!!!

  14. Thanks TK !

    The surface obs are showing it and stepping outside, it feels it. A surge of truly oppressive air has moved into SE Mass with dewpoints running in the low 70s.

  15. I think the Whdh blogs at night had us waking up to dense fog then rain later in the day. Instead I woke up to pouring rain around 7am that really hasn’t stopped much and no fog at all.

  16. Danny ……

    It’s 2015 and there still hasn’t been much progress towards intensity forecasts on tropical systems.

    The last 2 to 3 hrs, the satellite sure implies more strengthening. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s a cat 2 with 100 mph winds at 11 am.

    I believe the models on track, but don’t trust their intensity projections, either way, one bit.

    1. Danny is an enigma.

      It is very small and compact and it will be running into dry air and shear.
      Will it emerge that area with a circulation? If it does, watch out. IF not,
      See ya! Most global models say see ya. Time will tell.

      At least we have something to monitor to keep our interest, as severe weather
      season is waning rapidly.

      2. I’m no expert on tropical systems one bit, but I wonder if the size of Danny is a defense mechanism and response to the harsh environment out there. Smaller more compact storm, less to shear? Idk

  17. re: Rain this morning

    Eric had it. I was not the least bit surprised this morning. 😀

    I came into work with everyone saying: “Hey, this rain wasn’t supposed to come
    until after Noon time” 😀 😀 😀

  18. Just had my car appraised from the big Hail storm awhile back.

    Appraiser said it would be in the 2,000s to 3,000s. NEVER expected that.
    Very labor intensive as they have to pull each individual dent and then when done,
    buff the entire car.

    We’ll get a check (less $500 deductible) and decide. My car is 5 years old with 70,000 miles on it. I can get it repaired somewhere for the check amount, but not sure it is worth the repair. It will be my wife’s decision. 😀

    1. Yikes, that’s a lot ! Multiply that amount by thousands and thousands of vehicles and that becomes one expensive thunderstorm.

      1. Indeed. The appraiser told me that there are teams of repair technicians from other parts of the country that will be here
        for about a year tending to all of the repairs. I was quite surprised.

        1. Son in law is having his done at Dent Wizard. I can assure you that he is absolutely OCDish about his vehicles. He literally carries washing stuff with him and will wash on the road. It will cost him about $500. Do you want me to find out info for you?

          1. I believe Dent Wizard is through Mikes Auto and Reconditioning in Framingham who we use for detailing our cars. Mike is amazing.

              1. Dent Wizard goes to various locations according to my daughter. She thought there might be one near you. Her husband swears by them. Although, they told him that the roof would be removed (it is a work van), it might not fit back on properly so he opted not to have dents removed on roof. I knew some parts needed removing so would be a good question for you to ask and also the difficulty in replacing the parts properly. I like that they were honest with him.

  22. Sun is out in Sudbury. Instability possibility – we know we are going to get rain – but wondering if this could make storms stronger/severe.

      1. Not here yet, although there are some subtle signs.

        Interesting that most of the echoes have gone poof. It looked
        like it was going to rain like crazy. NOPE.

        1. There is a bit of darker grey/almost yellowish to my north and I wondered but that is in rainshine’s direction so she answered the question as to whether there was something happening up there. Now seeing deep blue sky with some towering white clouds.

    1. Caribbean type clouds. Hmmm
      Sort of something like what I said yesterday about it reminding me
      of Bermuda? 😀

  26. Again, I would mind if we got some rain later to cancel football practice. 🙂 I love to watch my boys play but this five nights a week practice thing is a bit much.

    2. We typically don’t cancel unless there’s lightening in the area, a drizzle or light rain we are practicing defense, we have a very good team this year, and trying for my 3rd championship out of 12 yrs, my dad is going for his 12th championship out of 36 yrs. it’s a tough sport for the mentally tough as well as physically tough kids. I’ve seen big kids get tackled hard and quit, and I’ve seen the littlest of the little guys get hit, and want to do it again. I’ve even seen a girl running back in Hyde park. (She was tough) How old are your kids sue?

      1. I absolutely love watching them play football and it is definitely not an easy sport. My boys are 7 and 9. My 9 year old had a great catch last night and practice and then was brought down by 4 or 5 kids. I asked him how it felt and his response was “soothing”. He loves it and loves the hitting. 🙂 This is my 7 year old’s first year playing “tackle” football as he was only able to play flag before this age. He is strong as an ox and I can’t wait to see him on the field.

  27. Just fantasizing – that front is so close and yet so far. Think if we all got together and gave it a push it would make it through the Boston area? Wishful thinking, that’s all. 🙂

  28. Unbearably muggy today. Hadi said it well. I know TK likes it, and I wish I could bear it but my body and head are suffering.

    TK, I agree with you that “heat is heat.” And, you’re absolutely right about September being a month in which it can get hot. What I was trying to get across is that it is a qualitatively different kind of heat. Not as long-lived, and has a different feel to it. This may just be me, I don’t know. I think March cold is similarly different from January cold, even when the temperature is the same. Perhaps it’s the sun angle, brightness, I don’t know. It could all be in my head.

    On a totally different topic, for those of you with retirement funds in the stock market (that probably includes most of us) it’s been a quiet decimation in recent weeks. Talk about `correction.’ What a euphemism. Average mutual funds are down 13% in just a matter of weeks. I don’t have much in the market (not much to put in, given academic salary, two children in school, divorced), and my retirement savings are “grossly inadequate,” according to a financial advisor who came to our offices. But, I was hoping that the little I had would grow. Growth in my mutual funds has been minimal overall (maybe 15%) since the mid 2000s. Sure it rose from the depths of 2009 after completely tanking, but most of the growth was recovering from the crisis.

    1. We switched a lot of ours out of stocks because we were afraid of a problem with what we felt would be a correction due to many factors, including Greece. Most of ours is now very conservative as we are old…old, I tell you 🙂 …..but you are right that we had hoped it would grow more and have seen too many hits since early this century.

      With regard to September, I had commented last night that I agree and I thought you explained it exactly as I also see it. I’ve said many times that the transition months sometime throw people. In the meat of the season, it is fairly easy to know what to expect (always with exceptions). However, in the transition months, anything and everything goes. I do feel they tend to start a healthy swing to the upcoming season. And folks tend to also want to compare each day to another season. I just figure it is typical of that month which makes it typical of the beginning or end of the season it belongs to.

      There has to be a pressure shift of some short. I developed an uncharacteristic screaming headache out of the blue about an hour ago. Like TK, I love all weather. I am just ready to be able to open the windows and doors again and turn off the AC.

  29. I’m at home. Some of the thickest, stickiest, soupiest air I have ever experienced!!!!

    81.6 Degrees of soupiness!

    2. It’s like thick pea soup. My body’s out of whack. Sweat’s coming out of every pore. My shirt’s a rag. My head’s a mess. And, I’m having a very bad hair day!

      1. So’s my wife and she is NOT feeling well.
        I came home for lunch and stayed home to be with her.
        Will be working from home.

        1. So sorry to hear. I never have physical problems from weather and am today so can believe Mrs. OS is having one miserable day. Please tell her we all send hugs.

        2. Sorry to hear that. Needless to say, hydration is key. In spite of the high dew point and saturation of the air, our bodies lose water rapidly in weather like this. Hence, the need to hydrate.

        4. Hope Mrs. OS feels better soon. The sun is out here brightly now. I like to take walks but in weather like this, not so much.

          1. OS I hope your wife feels better soon.

            When it’s cloudy like this I’m more in TK’s camp and I actually like it (reminds me of some vacations down in Florida). Now that being said if the sun came out and temps soared to the upper 80s or low 90s I wouldn’t like it as much.

  31. Maybe I just like it but I don’t think today is a big deal . I feel horrible for the people that don’t do well and get actually sick from it. Please take it slow. I myself have been crazy at work this week after tomorrow a 56 hr workweek it’s been go, go , all week.

    1. It doesn’t feel bad to me either which is why I am surprised and maybe my headache has nothing to do with weather.

  32. I might offer that there are 2 fronts, or maybe its 1 front and 1 boundary across our local area.

    Behind the front are different wind direction and MUCH lower dewpoints in west-central MA.

    But, in the eastern half of MA, there is definitely a dewpoint transition zone within similar surface winds, where the dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s and then further east, dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s.

  33. Recon plane getting first look at Danny find a major hurricane, 115 mph.

    My two cents is that they happened to be investigating this system for the 1st time at its max strength.

    Looks like shear and a ton of dry air to its west are about to start weakening this thing, perhaps dramatically.

    I hope some rain comes out of this for Puerto Rico.

  35. If the 12z EURO is correct, for example ……. a week from today, would be about 75F to 80F with more importantly …… much, much, much lower humidity. So, there’s hope ….. 🙂

  37. This particular 12z EURO run probably got the attention of the folks in Bermuda for its projection 9 to 10 days out.

    I’m sure it will be the complete opposite on the 00z run.

  38. Now there is a new line developing to the West and also
    new convection in the waters South of SNE. Hmmm

  39. Kimmirut (Nunavut Province, Canada) will likely get its first frost Sunday night (temps will be 40s daytime, 30s at night). It’s been frost-free there since early July. Not exactly a long period of frost-less nights. They’re accustomed to short summers, but this one’s been awfully short.

  40. You have to be kidding. Logan has a SEA BREEZE. HOW?
    77 there, 83.1 here.

    Dew point back up a bit to 72 at Logan.

    Radar showed big echoes overhead here. NOT! Not doing anything! Nor did it
    recently. Sun is shining brightly now.

  41. 3 PM Logan dp = 72F UGH!!!!!!

    The highest dp that I can recall here in Boston is 77 and that was years ago. I have heard 80+ in Florida quite common.

    In parts of the Middle East there are dps in the 90s! That is BEYOND awful!!!

  45. Logan’s wind is not a true seabreeze, as in the classic circulation. The shift was probably triggered by the latest batch of showers in the area.

    1. Yes, if you look at the global models, there is a train of them coming off
      of Africa. The question is, how many make it through the Sand (I mean dust)
      to develop????

  49. Hi TK,

    Hope all are well!

    I was wondering if you could help me out. I’m on my honeymoon in Hawaii. Kauai to be exact and I’m hearing their is a hurricane brewing. Can you give me an update? Where is it going and should we be concerned?? Thanks TJ

    2. Congrats!
      I’m not sure how long you are going to be there, but you can base your preliminary thoughts on this info. I just took a look at the latest advisory and forecast from the experts for TS Kilo and I cannot see any reason to majorly disagree with it. However, if it was going to impact the region you are in, it would not be until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Before that it’s going to be making a slow west northwest track from southeast of the islands to south of the islands, while strengthening from TS to Hurricane. I’m a little optimistic that this thing may start its recurve a little later than the forecast has. You would actually want to root for it to strengthen more rapidly, as that often keeps a storm on a more westward course, delaying the recurve.

      Let me know how long you’ll be there and we can put a watch flag on it for you. 🙂

      1. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W
        MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.

        OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.0N 161.5W
        MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.

        This last position is “Just” SW of Kauai

  50. Watch for a narrow line that might pop up just west of Boston and head into the city next hour.

    1. I was just going to post somthing.
      At berruccis w. Roxbury picking
      Up pizzas and can see one of the cells.
      Came out of nowhere!

  51. Torrential here from one of the popups. Daughter was in Hopkinton about 30 minutes ago and said torrential,there also and sun was out

  52. According to Pete the current dp in Iran is 90F!!!!!

    I imagine our current dp’s in the upper 60s- low 70s is absolutely refreshing in comparasion. 😀

    either way….UGH!!! 🙁

  55. The band of clouds and some showers/downpours just west of Boston is the actual front, but it’s in the process of becoming nearly stationary. May never get into the city. The stuff in NH had a little more support and therefore contains more lightning and heavier rain over a larger area. The line near this area is struggling but a few cells are breaking through. It’s got about another hour to feed before the sun is too low to do anything. This boundary will be in our area tomorrow and will focus lift for more activity.

  56. Thanks TK and JP Dave!!

    We are here until next Thursday Aug 27th. It’s so Beautiful here I recommend highly!!!

    1. Congrats Tj I hope the weather stays good. I’m going to Hawaii when I retire some day I hope .

  57. Hi South Shore,

    When you come to Hawaii you need to come to Kauai it’s just Beautiful!! All 4 Jurassic park films and Indiana jones films were made here. It’s peaceful and beautiful!!

  62. It refuses to rain at my location!

    Everything to the W stayed just far enough away to not get me. A cell blew up over Winchester at Route 93 and passed JUST east of me but I had a sprinkle briefly from it. What was neat about that was that it was dark to the west from the activity there but the sun was reflecting off the tall cloud to my east and making it eerily bright here! Almost like the sun was to the east even though it was nearing sunset.

    Then something remarkable took place about 1/2 hour later just as the sun was setting after peeking between the cloud base and the horizon to the W. Some scud clouds formed under the base and happened to be lined up with the sun which just went below the horizon, but the clouds were high enough as they formed to have sun on them and as they were forming they looked like a bright orange mist creature appearing out of thin air! It was awesome!

  63. I loved Kauai, we stayed on the north part of the island and agrees it’s just gorgeous. The mountain in central Kauai in fact has the most precip of any location in the world.

  64. Thought a lot more rain would fall today, only .11 with a lot of sun, busy weekend ahead for me 🙂

  66. I think it’s about time they replace that outdated bridge clearance in Westwood that 1 major accident happens every 3 weeks. It’s about time they raise and replace the bridge, probably 20yrs ago they should have done this, at least it sounds like there going to update it now. 🙂

  67. Well I’m back from the Canadian Maritimes. What a trip!! Unspoiled territory and the weather could not have been better. If you can get there during great weather, I would highly recommend. In speaking with many locals on Prince Edward Island, they said they had 17-18 feet of snow this past winter … much of it in February. Sound familiar?? They had to close schools for 2 straight weeks.

    2. Welcome back and so nice that your trip was great. We do hope to get back there. As I recall, didn’t the storms that we have double wallop that area?

  68. Seems front, lower dewpoints and N winds got a little further eastward than I was thinking they would. If this helps keep the low to mid 70 dewpoints away, then it’s a nice surprise.

  69. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How fast can the updrafts inside a cumulonimbus clouds reach?
    A. 40 MPH
    B. 60 MPH
    C. 80 MPH
    D. 100 MPH

    Answer later today.

  70. Wow! The front is about 75-100 miles farther East than predicted. Last night Eric said it would not make it to Boston before moving Westward again. Will it even move
    Westward?

    The weather around here cannot be predicted 24 hours in advance. Truly amazing!

    Here is the surface map

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    1. According to SREF, no instability at all around these parts this afternoon.

      Not sure we’ll see a drop today.

      1. From NWS, really???

        ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED
        SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
        NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS WESTERN NEW
        ENGLAND…MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BUT AN ISOLATED SPOT
        SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

  72. Hurrican Kilo in the Pacific. Latest Forecasts

    HWRF hurricane model at 126 hours or 12Z 8/27
    115.6 knots or 133 mph, a Major hurricane, Cat 4

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015082206-kilo03c&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    GFDL at 126 hours. 125 knots or 143 mph, Cat 4

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015082206-kilo03c&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    CMC at 0Z 8/27

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015082200/gem_mslp_wind_cpac_21.png

    Euro 0Z, 8/28

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015082200/ecmwf_mslpa_cpac_7.png

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