Sunday Forecast Update

101 Comments

8:15AM

DAYS 1-5…
Continuing to feel impact from broad offshore low pressure and an old frontal boundary nearby. As the low shifts northward through Monday it will push the boundary westward across the region and will trigger some showers, but not a widespread rain. Still watching for a stronger cold front from the west driven by a trough and surface low moving into the Great Lakes. This front will cross the region by late Tuesday night and will bring a more significant threat for showers and thunderstorms, though timing remains uncertain and will influence the impact of the activity with the front. Fine-tuning to come. Drier air arrives by midweek as surface low pressure moves into eastern Canada and upper level low pressure crosses the northeastern US. This set-up will mean diurnal cloud development so don’t look for total sunshine Wednesday and Thursday. It will still be quite nice, however.
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and drizzle through the morning then mostly cloudy through afternoon. Scattered showers and a few locally heavier downpours possible. Humid. Highs 70 coast to 80 well inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind light NE to E.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of fog early. Scattered showers mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and western RI. Humid. Highs 70s coast, lower 80s well inland. Wind light E to SE.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers possible eastern areas early. Showers/thunderstorms likely from west to east late day or night. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs middle 70s South Coast to lower 80s elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lowering humidity. Lows in the 60s. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)…
Dry August 28-29. Isolated showers August 30. Potential unsettled weather August 31 and/or September 1 – watch a front from the west and/or tropical moisture from the south. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)…
Above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation expected in the early days of September.

101 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast Update”

    1. Thanks for reposting. I have a question JPDave. I had a weather map app that you had recommended. It allowed me to choose maps and runs, etc. it may not have transferred when I got a new iPad. Do you recall the name?

  10. Taking the kids to their first Red Sox game today. Dugout box seats row 2, unbelievable seats. I hope they don’t get use to sitting so close. 🙂 Look for the handsome red head on the right side of the plate. Haha!

  13. I very much enjoy the “warm” version of drizzle which is what I was experiencing in a grocery store parking lot a short while ago. A little less stinging than the April drizzle. 😉

    1. That is true, but drizzle is drizzle and it’s miserable whether it’s cold or not.
      It’s just that the cold drizzle is MORE miserable than the warmer version. 😀
      It’s degrees of miserableness!

      1. We should make a chart: Jp Dave’s Degrees of Weather Misery. You can list all of your least favorite aspects next to a bulb thermometer with your least favorite at the top. 😛

        1. That would be fun. I’ll have to think about it.

          You know that a blinding blizzard with 100 mph gusts would be my favorite. 😀

  14. I have a mild hunch about something tropical possibly playing with the East Coast between August 30 and September 1 followed by several days of September heat.

    Just speculation at this point.

    1. A mild hunch? Hmmm There are “some” signs.
      We’ll ALL be watching, that’s for sure.

      Do you mean a possible direct hit? Or a grazing with some tropical rains
      and perhaps a bit of wind, but nothing serious?

      1. Many possibilities are on the table. It’s just that we’re going to have a weakness between a couple ridges including a trough that may put itself in position to draw something northward.

        The wildcards:
        -There has to be something to draw northward.
        -Position of high pressure very important. Some models have a big high in a place that would prevent this.

        Many people (not really anybody here) fall into the false sense of security during a season with less than average activity and forget that we can get storms to form outside of the typical areas, and things can still come together for a strike or 2.

        You can have 25 storms that can all recurve to sea for one example. You can have 5 storms and 3 of them can make landfall, for another example. It just depends on the pattern through the season…

          1. Yes, exactly. This is a good example of seeing the overall trend versus the detail on the model.

            The high to the west a shade further west than modeled, the high to the east a shade further south than modeled, and the orientation of the front in the right place, and you end up with a legitimate threat of some impact from the system, assuming it is also being modeled relatively well.

        2. It’s still maintains its very compact structure. My guess it would have to come very close to deliver any impacts to the area.

          1. Those systems always are in transition when they arrive up here so their structure morphs very quickly.

  15. Have to head out shortly and won’t be able to check 12Z runs till 3 or 4 PM.
    The suspense will be killing me.

        1. 😀

          I can see it now. Like Han Solo..commanding for the activation of the drizzle shield. 😛

  16. A friend of mine posted on FB that he has 2 free tickets to the Sox today. First to respond gets them. 1 hour, no responses. I’d go, but I can’t go today. I’m surprised nobody wants them though. Maybe you’d want them, Charlie? 😉

  17. Been out some ….

    At least down this way, Friday was oppressive, yesterday was damp but not uncomfortable …….. but, today feels closer to Friday, headed towards oppressive again.

    1. There could be as I believe districts have the ability to select their own start dates, as long as they can get 180 days in.

      In Marshfield, teachers meeting day is next Monday, August 31st and then we get 3 school days in Tuesday through Thursday, followed by a 4 day Labor Day weekend.

      I love getting the 3 days in prior to Labor Day weekend and that way it works out, its a nice 3 day school week, followed by a 4 day school week, followed by a 5 day school week. Nice buildup into the school year.

      1. Thanks Tom. Interesting start to the school year. Of course, I will always prefer the tried-and-true post Labor Day start like Boston and most other communities.

        It appears this year, regardless of when school starts, everyone will be quite hot and uncomfortable assuming TK’s extended forecast verifies.

      2. Though I’m not a fan of going back in August, I have no problem with getting those few days in early in September before a late Labor Day. Makes sense to me! I think if schools start on the first non holiday or weekend day of September, the last day of school is not going to end up late late most of the time. Last year was a bit of an anomaly in terms of the amount of snow days. Just a bit of an anomaly. 😉

        I’d also be in favor of eliminating February and April vacation weeks and putting a week or even a week plus a few extra days in March. This would allow, IMO, schools to finish up the main teaching by the last day of May, leaving the early days of June for review and final testing, field days and trips, then goodbye for the Summer.

        1. I like that idea of March vacations TK. Most colleges have them during that time, usually the 2nd or 3rd week IIRC. 🙂

        2. I also agree with scrapping Feb and Apr vacations in favor of a 2 week March break.

          Growing up, I was fortunate to be in schools that did that and loved it. One of the benefits is that it’s easier to travel on the 2 week break compared to the 1 week break. Also, at the “tired” time of the school year in late winter, early spring, the 2 week break really does recharge everyone.

          1. We did that, Tom, several years ago. The teachers fought it because they thought Feb was needed to break the flu. They were right. After several years, it was shown there was a higher number of absences in February and the flu lasted longer in the system.

            1. Maybe a compromise…

              The first 10 weekdays of March. Close enough to the 3rd week of February to have a similar preventative impact.

              Just an idea. 🙂

              1. Or maybe even better…

                A 2 week break the last 2 weeks of February and eliminate April’s. The longer Summer would help make up for the 3 months leading into it. 🙂

                1. That might work assuming there is a longer summer. I Wonder what the history is of snow days in certain months. Three months would be long if kids go through June. I’m not sure why we need to change though

      1. Well, here’s one twist. We’re going to Water Country on August 26 as we have the last few years on that date. One benefit for us of going then is that the part is practically empty because so many schools are already back in session.

        Woburn starts on September 9.

  19. Other than a few briefly heavy downpours Friday morning, it’s been a rain free weekend here. Definitely thought it would be worse but pleasantly surprised 🙂

    1. The set-up was such that someone would be rain-free the vast majority of the time, and a few other would be less lucky. Yesterday, it was outer Cape Cod that was wet most of the day. Today it’s the NH Seacoast.

  20. Back home for awhile before heading out later again.

    Just checked 12Z. Bug change.

    ALL models, even the GFDL now declare DANNY DEAD really soon.

    Euro and CMC pick up on follow-up system and CMC really pops it.

    Watch out Bermuda as Tom has been saying all along.
    AND perhaps watch out us as it could take the PURE OCEAN route to us.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015082312/gem_mslp_wind_watl_38.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015082312/gem_mslp_wind_watl_40.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015082312/gem_uv200_watl_40.png

    GFS? Kaplooey. Nothing really.

    Euro

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015082312/ecmwf_mslpa_watl_11.png

    1. If the EURO is correct, don’t take out the A/C’s.

      From day 7 through 10, the 850 temps go from +12C to 18-20C. Even with a lower sun angle and a little less column mixing, that could still be quite toasty.

    2. Additional note:

      Both the 12Z HWRF and the GFDL HAVE the follow up system in a precarious
      position in 126 hours. HWRF as a Hurricane already and GFDL as a decent
      tropical storm.

      These runs don’t go far enough out just yet, but all eye should be on the tropics as something is signified by:

      HWRF
      GFDL
      CMC
      EURO

      GFS doesn’t seem to want to play ball. Not sure why?

      Here is the 12Z HRWF position as of 12Z on the 28th.

      http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015082306-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

      Seems as IF this would be TK’s hunch for sure.

      1. Thanks Jp Dave for posting all this great info. I wouldn’t begin to know or remember 🙂 where to find it all.

          1. Thanks …..

            I use golden gate weather for the GFS and Instant weather maps for the EURO and in winter, the NAM.

            I think I’ll just go with those.

            If I add others, I will confuse myself big time 🙂 🙂

            1. No Problem. If you ever change your
              mind, drop a note and I’d be happy to post a few or a bunch of links. Others would too, I’m sure.

    1. I can verify a few …. also mixed in with occasional waves of mist.

      Do you think that line of showers offshore makes it to the coastline ?

      1. I think it may hold enough to reach the coast during the evening. Wouldn’t expect a whole lot of measurable rain from it though.

  24. I was just out for a bit again. Yuck, the drizzle!! and my shields were down, so
    I felt it. Gross, gross, gross!! I’d rather it pour buckets!!

  25. Red Sox, true to form. Did they ever BUTCHER THIS GAME!!!!
    Holy Crap Batman, a few players HAVE TO GO!! Are you listening
    Pablo and Hanley???? Poor Xander messed up today, but he plays hard and I’ll
    cut him a break.

  26. Barry said on air that he is leaning toward a “tough” winter in which any (snow)storms will be more spread out during the season unlike last winter all the storms were all at once.

    Hmmm…does this mean that Barry isn’t putting much stock into El Nino? Your thoughts TK??

    1. I’m assuming he is making his educated guess based on some El Nino episodes that produced better Winters. My issue with that is the stronger episodes generally lead to near to below normal snow and the lack of any sustained cold. But there will be other factors to consider going into this so it’s very much up in the air. My early lean just happens to be the other way slightly when compared to Barry, with all due respect to him as always. He’s a good friend and one of the best forecasters I’ll ever know. 🙂

    2. I also get the impression that Barry believes that there will be more “mixed” events as well as straight snows. Something we did not have last winter.

      1. Last Winter after a very slow start it basically snowed for 30 days… We’re not going to have a repeat of that.

        1. I was reading up some things on line and most had a weak El Niño when winter rolled around and above average snow with lots of cold. I forget where I was reading it but I’m hoping it’s wrong .

          1. This El Nino is already near magnitude of 1982-1983 and heading for 1997-1998. This is not a weak one at all. So I’m not sure who wrote that and why…

              1. No worries. But we’ll see all kinds of scenarios and some of them will come from people who merely get a thrill out of “breaking the news” that we’re in for another nasty Winter, when they haven’t actually put any scientific thought into anything to draw that conclusion. Ah well!

  27. Hi everyone…. Its good to be back from Hershey, PA. What a nice little town great theme park there. It was my first time there and I would go back.
    I see reading the discussion from Taunton we may have a watcher for thunderstorms Tuesday.

    1. Hi JJ. Welcome back. Mac asked if you were watching the tournament today and I said you were on vacation. Glad you had a fun trip,and enjoyed the area

  28. Thanks Vicki… I would recommend anyone who has never been to Hershey, Pa to try to make a trip down there.
    I just saw Davis Love III won. I am happy to see him win after going a long time without winning becoming the third oldest person to win a PGA event at 51 years old.

    1. We went with the kids years ago and really enjoyed it. It is a beautiful area of the country with Hershey and Gettysburg and Amish country.

      Did you drive? It is a lovely drive.

  29. Yes I drove. This is the deepest I have been into Pennsylvania. It was a great drive and nice part of the country. The weather other than one day where there was thunderstorms was great with low levels of humidity once the thunderstorms moved away on Thursday.

    1. And the irony was it came in an extremely quiet tropical season overall for the Atlantic. First named storm in late August and the only major hurricane of the season, and 1 of only 4 hurricanes. 10 systems overall but only 6 named ones. Turns out that a system in April was found to be a subtropical storm. The other oddity was that the next 4 named storms after Andrew basically all took place together, along with a depression. A long break between Andrew and this cluster was mirrored by another long break after the cluster, until one final named storm in October.

      1. I remember. My father in law and I used to chart hurricanes. We started just before Hugo. As you know they lived east of charleston. What a primitive charting system we had then. I sure do miss him. Andrew is one of the ones we talked about daily. Katrina another and of course Hugo.

          1. We did the same. Oddly that seems more fun. Mac’s aunt and family lived in Charlotte. Hugo did a good deal of damage there as well. As we drove south, we could see the path it cut through the carolinas. Amazing how far inland it held its strength.

  31. Good morning.

    GFS still does NOT have the follow up system to Danny, while the
    Euro, CMC, GFDL and HWRF all do. Follow up system will be named ERIKA
    when it forms today or tomorrow

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

    Euro has weak system, although it does have it.

    Here is CMC virtually on top of Bermuda and not threat to us. (This is a long way out
    and just last night’s 0Z run. They keep changing)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015082400/gem_mslpa_eus_30.png

    HWRF

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015082400-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    GFDL

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015082400-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    1. As of this moment, it does not appear that we will have the bowling alley
      between 2 ridges when this storm is in a possible position to come up
      here. It looks to be blocked and forced to recurve well South of us and
      threatens to hit or come close to Bermuda. Still time and we shall be watching.

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