Monday Forecast Update

95 Comments

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5…
Just the forecast for now. Running short on time. More later!
TODAY: Overcast with areas of drizzle and fog morning. Increasing sun afternoon but also a few isolated showers. Highs in the 70s. Wind light variable, mainly SE to S.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Highs 80-85.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-63. Highs 78-83.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 77-82.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)…
Watch for unsettled weather mid period otherwise mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)…
Temperatures above normal. Rainfall below normal.

95 thoughts on “Monday Forecast Update”

  3. RE-POST from earlier

    Jp Dave says:
    August 24, 2015 at 6:48 AM
    Good morning.

    GFS still does NOT have the follow up system to Danny, while the
    Euro, CMC, GFDL and HWRF all do. Follow up system will be named ERIKA
    when it forms today or tomorrow

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

    Euro has weak system, although it does have it.

    Here is CMC virtually on top of Bermuda and not threat to us. (This is a long way out
    and just last night’s 0Z run. They keep changing)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015082400/gem_mslpa_eus_30.png

    HWRF

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015082400-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    GFDL

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015082400-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr
    Reply
    avatarJp Dave says:
    August 24, 2015 at 6:53 AM
    As of this moment, it does not appear that we will have the bowling alley
    between 2 ridges when this storm is in a possible position to come up
    here. It looks to be blocked and forced to recurve well South of us and
    threatens to hit or come close to Bermuda. Still time and we shall be watching.
    Reply

    1. Thanks JJ. We missed you around here. Happy you had a great vacation.

      We shall see about tomorrow. So far anyway, I am not impressed with the
      set up for tomorrow. Perhaps things will change a bit. Also worth noting:
      Tomorrow is 8/24. We are rapidly losing that higher sun angle that is so
      helpful with storm development. We are approaching the time that we require
      better dynamics for storms. Just thought I would throw that out there. 😀

  5. Hey Dave…. It was a great vacation. Glad to be back blogging with all of you again.
    6z NAM for tomorrow.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. I was looking at that earlier. The High resolution CMC that goes out 48 hours
      is also fairly robust, However, take a look at the GFS. Wimporama with that one.
      😀

      Let’s see what the 12Z runs show.

  6. 6z GFS for tomorrow.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    1. Oh, I thought it was less than that. It was early when I was looking at it. 😀

      Thanks JJ.

      As long as you are in there, look at the 2 CMC high resolution models.

      1. That was from SREF. NWS says bulk shear will be higher:

        THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE 30 TO 45 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR

        1. Just looked at SREF again. I must have been almost totally asleep. I was looking at today instead of tomorrow.

          SREF agrees. Sorry, my bad.

    1. Will sitting in mud just kill the seeds and does aerating when ground muddy make a mess of the existing lawn?

          1. You should not have grubs if you put down the grubex in April / may liked we talked about. One application of the Bayer product we also discussed.

  9. CMC High Res at 18z tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=cmc_hrdps&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=cmc_hrdps&stn2=CAPE&hh2=039&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=036
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&run=06&stn=LI&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=cmc_hrdps&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=cmc_hrdps&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  10. CMC high res 21z tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=cmc_hrdps&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=cmc_hrdps&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=cmc_hrdps&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  12. Those weak mid level rates MIGHT be our saving grace tomorrow from havingmore widespread strong to severe storms.
    With that said there are other ingredients in play for thunderstorm development and would not rule out an isolated strong to severe storm in SNE tomorrow.

    1. Yes, but all I have to do is look back on Saturday, 8/15.
      That was supposed to be the limiting factor to any storms that day
      and it ended up being a WILD DAY.

    1. Looks like the big city on the south side is Kagoshima with a population over 600,000 as of 2010 per Wikipedia.

  19. Extra warm water out there today …….. Boston Harbor Buoy at 72.5F. On the hourly obs, I see 76F being reported in Nantucket Sound and South of Block Island.

    1. Been watching for a while and the tropical formation of Erika seems inevitable. Reaching hurricane status seems at least somewhat likely. The threat to land will likely depend on the timing of the northerly turn.

      1. Indeed and what the conditions are when it’s ready to move up
        the coast. Do we have a Blocking High? A trough?
        Right now, odds would favor a recurvation out well South of us.
        But any delays in forward progress and development, and who
        knows.

        Must be watched for sure as we don’t want a monster
        sitting off of the Bahama’s.

  22. btw,

    The Euro has lost Invest-98L.

    That makes 2 Global modes, the Euro and GFS
    The CMC continues to have it and quite strongly at that.

    So of the 5 major models used to track hurricanes,
    we have 2 of 5 saying no storm and 3 of 5 saying, yes indeedy.

    Never is easy that’s for sure.

    My guess is there WILL be a storm, just a question of whether it
    re-curves or rides up the coast.

  23. 12z GFS for tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=030&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=033
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  24. 12z NAM for tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

      2. So far I think you’ll get the game in with all activity far enough north and west. Keep an eye out though…just in case.

    1. It is for only 1 year and if his days are way behind him the Pats can just dump him at any time with no risk. No harm/no foul IMO.

        1. Galloway never could learn Bill’s offense. If Reggie W. has brains, which I bet he has, he may help. He caught a lot of passes just last year.
          Worth a try. In the NFL, you can cut him loose at not cost.

          1. It’s a one year deal and with injuries in that department the hope I would suspect is we have a receiver that was decent let’s see what he can do for one season.

        2. Is this coming from someone that said about this time last year, that the 2014 patriots season would be a bust? I have this funny feeling way down deep you don’t like the Patriots. Why?

          1. Haha, very true. It’s the reverse psychology that worked for them last year 🙂 I like the Patriots, I really do. I just don’t like the way they go about their business sometimes. I can still be a fan and not like their methods.

              1. Business model proven, yes. Moral and ethical model needs some work. Unfortunately, success often breeds arrogance and pretension.

                1. Hmmm. They are not perfect but far from the worst. Not sure what moral and ethical problems you refer to.

  30. Not that bad in the city now sitting at 66. Should be interesting to see how or if the storms perform .

          1. And for an interesting twist, here is the 0Z CMC

            http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015082500/gem_mslp_wind_watl_38.png

            The freakin GFS does NOT have it at all.

            The FIM does not have it either.

            I guess neither the GFS or the FIM are decent
            Hurricane models, while the Euro and the CMC
            are better.

            Remember how the Euro nailed Sandy.

            This one is a watcher for sure.

            Btw, Eric last night said that anytime we have
            a named storm near the Bahamas we NEED
            to take NOTICE. He said nothing imminent, but
            we need to keep a close eye on what is happening with Erika.

            1. Add this to the EURO and I take from it that the 00z trend is toward strong high pressure either in the Atlantic or a bit closer to the coast that’s going to direct Erika towards some part of the U.S. Mainland. It’s also probably going to give us more very warm to hot weather.

              1. Yes, for sure.

                Let’s say it’s a cat 4 near the carolinas, I would think it would be a cat 3 IF it made landfall here. Certainly a strong 2 worse case.

                I shutter to think if it passed
                the carolinas as a cat 5…

        2. Wow ….. and this particular run of the EURO has it there from day 8, 192 hrs ……..

          Well, let’s see if there’s any 12z run consistency. In a way, I hope not !

          1. Frankly, I am beginning to get worried about
            this one. We have some really warm water all the way up the coast. Anything could possible maintain a great deal of intensity all the way
            up here, should it decide to move up this way.

            Current Seatr Surface temperatures:

            I don’t like the holes in this chart, but it was the best I could find in short notice.

            http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/regions/gulfstream/sst/noaa/2015/img/150825.237.0650.n19.jpg

            Some spaghetti charts

            http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

            http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png

    2. Big picture pattern of trof in the west and ridge in the east ….. full moon astronomical high tides in that time frame ……. I really hope the steering currents work out to keep this one away, as the majority of the time, they do. But, I’m a bit concerned already given the overall big picture trend of the weather pattern.

  33. To calm myself down regarding the tropics, I think I will just look at Kilo and how the track and intensity forecasts haven’t really verified to what was being shown days ago. Thankfully so, for western portions of Hawaii.

    1. Would you like a Xanax? 😀

      It’s still a ways off. Not to worry yet.

      And if it comforts you at all, many of the runs do re-curve this
      thing South of us. To uncomfort you, some take it into the gulf, which to
      me leaves room for it to be in between and still come up here.

      1. Thanks Jp Dave.

        The worry must come with living in a town that’s on the ocean, though I’m thankfully not right on the ocean.

        But, with the upcoming tides, the latest model trends and the big picture weather pattern in the next 7 to 10 days, I am concerned that someone has a tropical threat.

  35. re: Severe today

    From our Paranoid friends at the Taunton NWS

    0-1KM HELICITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT UPPER
    LEVEL PATTERN OF CLOSED LOW OVER SE CANADA FITS CLIMATOLOGY OF
    WEAK SNE TORNADOES SO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD BRIEF SPINUP.    HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY INCREASING DURING THE MORNING ACROSS W MA AND N CT THEN MOVING E INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WE CANT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN…IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST OF BOS-PVD CORRIDOR TODAY.

    What is with this person at the Taunton office????????????!@()#(*!(@&#(*!)

  36. From SPC.
    NEW ENGLAND…
    AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
    UPPER OH VALLEY TODAY. AT THE SFC…A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD
    ACROSS ERN NY AND THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
    FRONT…A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN NEW
    ENGLAND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. AS SFC TEMPS
    WARM AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AROUND
    MIDDAY…THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FROM NH SWD ACROSS
    MA INTO CT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
    AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
    SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE
    AFTERNOON SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE 850 MB WITH 40 TO
    50 KT OF SWLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS WIND PROFILE SHOULD
    SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WITH CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN
    AREAS THAT HEAT UP THE MOST. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
    UPDRAFTS ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT ROTATE.

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