Tuesday Forecast Update

149 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5…
Slow moving cold front touches off showers and thunderstorms today and this evening as it moves west to east across the region, taking until the early hours of Wednesday to clear the coast. The greatest support for showers and thunderstorms sits over central to interior northeastern MA and southwestern to south central NH and by the time this axis shifts southeastward it will be early tonight. So it’s areas to the west and north of Boston that stand the greatest chance of the most significant weather today but all areas should keep an eye out, in case. Drier air arrives at midweek and lasts through the end of the week with a stretch of great late Summer weather!
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms, most numerous to the west and north of Boston. Highs 77-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but gusty and variable around any storms.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms through evening, ending overnight. Lows 60-67. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH but gusty around any storms.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Fair weather. Lows 55-65. Highs 75-85.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)…
Risk of showers about the middle of the period otherwise mostly dry with temperatures warming to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)…
Rainfall below normal. Temperatures above normal.

149 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast Update”

  3. Thanks tk 🙂
    Heard Harvey last night state Boston and south and east could get very little action with this front 🙂

  7. Here’s a re-post from earlier re: ERIKIA

    Jp Dave says:
    August 25, 2015 at 6:21 AM
    HWRF

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2015082500/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_05L_43.png

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015082500-erika05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082500/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_05L_22.png

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015082500-erika05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr
    Reply

  8. Thanks TK! Hoping for some action today but agree with you that north and west will be the better chances.

    No mention of “Erika” in this forecast. Guess you’re thinking it won’t be a player for us? Looks like a lot of options on the table for her. She looks quite sickly this morning.

    1. Tk did, however, mention his concerns in a post the other day.
      He felt that our area could be impacted in some way by a tropical system.
      It was way too far out for any specifics in any way, but he was concerned
      about the possibility.

      Also, it looks like he “may” have been a bit pressed for time, so he didn’t
      get into on today’s blog. I’m sure he’ll chime in later with some thoughts.

      I find it fascinating to watch this unfold.

      Not for nothing, but the NHC forecasting has fallen short of the mark lately.

  9. Latest from Taunton NWS office and somewhat a re-post from earlier:

    0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KT SO EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO
    SEVERE TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
    WEATHER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
    SHEAR/INSTABILITY. 0-1KM HELICITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT UPPER
    LEVEL PATTERN OF CLOSED LOW OVER SE CANADA FITS CLIMATOLOGY OF
    WEAK SNE TORNADOES SO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD BRIEF SPINUP.

    What are they smoking down there???????????

    Someone in that office is out of their mind!! This about the umpty ninth time that
    has been mentioned. GIVE US A BREAK!!!

    1. I wonder if it has anything to do with the advanced Doppler technology that basically can now detect that many thunderstorms have some sort of rotation in the clouds. Perhaps they account for that now in their discussions ????

      1. Sure, that’s fine. But saying all thunderstorm threats now
        come with the possibility of a tornado? Is that responsible when the chances are so remote it’s not worth mentioning.

        I for one, think that it is extremely irresponsible.

        If all the parameters are there and it is a legitimate threat, then sure by all means. This pure fantasy imho.

  10. Just saw JR’s forecast and he has boston and areas south getting zilch this afternoon. All action will be west as it has been his morning.

  12. I pay more attention to the SPC when it comes to thunderstorms. They certainly don’t blow things out of proportion down there in Norman Oklahoma.
    If there is any strong or severe storm it will be isolated in nature today.
    Thunderstorm Impacts today in my opinion.
    Wind – Low
    Hail – Low
    Flooding – Low

  14. That sun will only further destablize the atmosphere today. We already have a warm unstable airmass in place. Add sunshine throwing fuel on the fire. The clouds and sun have been going back and forth where I am so far today.

  15. Really Sunny here at the office and this was after seeing downtown completely
    Shrouded in FOG this morning coming in.

  16. The action that is out there now looks to me like a Convective Mesoscale System
    and nothing to do with any action we may get into later. We need to look for
    new development later on.

  17. From NWS out of Albany, NY
    LOOKING AT CURRENT DEWPOINTS…THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE
    PROGRESS THROUGH BURLINGTON VERMONT…ROME NEW YORK AND MAYBE AS
    FAR EAST AS BINGHAMTON NY. 850 FRONT LOOKS TO LIE ALONG SIMILAR
    LINE BASED ON CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS. ANYWHERE EAST OF THAT LINE
    HAS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DUE TO SUNS HEATING
    A MODERATELY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM COLD FRONT.

  19. MassBay. JR. said south shore should be fine. Where are you playing in Plymouth? Mac has played Waverly Oaks but not sure of others. Hit Em straight and Long and have fun.

    1. I hit em long, but hardly ever straight. 😀 😀
      Many a 300 yard drive lost well into the woods. 😆
      And when I would occasionally land one in the fairway, I would
      flub the iron shot and waste a great drive. I was/am a totally and completely
      USELESS golfer. If I play, it is for total amusement purposes only. 😀

    1. Latest HRRR for what it is worth, Brings convection activity into Boston
      and the surrounding area in the 3-4 PM time frame.

  21. 12z hurricane models are all very consistent in their tracks for Erika towards the southern Bahamas. I am, with mild trepidation, interested as to what the 12z EURO produces and with mild amusement, what the 12z GFS has to offer.

    1. Where did you see those. I’m still seeing 6Z

      However, the 11AM report from the NHC shows the following

      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 25/1500Z 15.2N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
      12H 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
      24H 26/1200Z 16.6N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
      36H 27/0000Z 17.4N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
      48H 27/1200Z 18.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
      72H 28/1200Z 20.0N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
      96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
      120H 30/1200Z 24.5N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

      That is their consensus and that seems to fit the GFDL and not the HWRF.
      GFDL is considerably weaker than the HWRF and the HRWF was much
      farther East than the GFDL.

      I also want to see the Euro and also the CMC. Screw the GFS

  22. Jp Dave ….. The Red Sox might be making changes, reports are they will letting Don Orsillo go at the end of the season.

    They are fools. Ten million places to improve and they are going to change one thing about their overall team that actually works.

    I give up on them, I really do.

    1. Orsillo? That doesn’t even make sense. He is really good.
      WHY the bleep don’t they get rid of the 2 most glaring screw ups,
      pablo and hanley???????????????????????????????????????????

      That’s the place to start. And because they have to play Hanley,
      JBJ takes a seat on the pine. NOT RIGHT AND NOT FAIR!

  25. Not sure Erika survives any more than Danny did.

    As for tstorms.. Going to have a tough time getting them inside 495 before 8PM I think.

  26. SPC just updated their map. Marginal risk extended into Boston and NE into Maine. Surprised they aren’t going slight, because there is now a 2% CHANCE OF TORNADOES!!!

    Discussion excerpt…

    TODAYS SETUP ALSO COULD YIELD AN EMBEDDED…TRANSIENT
    SUPERCELL OR TWO. THESE APPEAR MOST LIKELY NEAR WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW
    BOUNDARY IN MA/SRN NH…AND COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AND/OR SMALL
    HAIL.

  27. Yesterday, warm front was projected to stay out over ocean. Right now, no surface analysis maps show a warm front in the area and the position of the low would put any warm front in the ocean or at the south coast. Not sure what SPC is seeing.

  29. SPC just issued an MD. Warm front is across eastern Middlessex county. They said that warm front may interact with other storms to produce a brief tornado. Yet chances of any watch are still low.

  30. Just because there is no watch doesn’t mean a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning can’t happen. SPC probably feels the coverage will be isolated that a watch is not warranted.
    Would you mind posting the link for the mesoscale discussions.
    Thanks.

  32. re: Red Sox and Don Orsillo. He will have no problems getting another job in baseball. Past few years he has been selected to do the TBS broadcasts for the ALDS and does an amazing job. He might even get something national, who knows. Might be the best thing that’s ever happened to him.

  33. This morning’s fog in Boston was absolutely spectacular. I ran along the Esplanade Park towards the Mass. Ave. Bridge. To my left the Hancock and Prudential were mostly enveloped in fog. To my right, Cambridge was basking in morning sun. It was Boston doing its best imitation of San Francisco. Just now, I walked about a mile from a fairly warm, muggy Copley Square to a much cooler Kneeland Street.

    I have a weather question for TK or others. The far northeastern part of Canada is still well below normal in terms of temperature. For example, the normal high for August 25th is 10C, and it’s 4C today. It’s been well below normal temperature-wise and well above normal precipitation-wise almost the entire summer. The mid- and long-range forecast calls for cool to cold temperatures to prevail. I’m wondering how this pool of cool and soon cold air may impact our winter. Clearly, last winter was impacted by weather way up north as several major storms derived their energy from northern systems. With El Nino prevailing we would likely have a dominant pacific flow. However, wouldn’t any dip in the jet stream give rise to the possibility of moisture-laden storms developing off the coast and interacting with cold air to our north?

    1. If that cold area persists them out will feed brief shots of cold and may provide low level cold for a few ice events.

  34. Who are the split personalities?
    Who is bostbliz????

    I for one, don’t recognize that handle. I like the posts, but don’t know who this is.

      1. I certainly didn’t post under any other handle.

        The only thing I did was piss and moan about the person
        at Taunton NWS and their insistence on tornadoes and called it a fantasy. And Now the SPC is on board with a slight chance.

        If I am accused, I am going to the Supreme Court!

        1. Even Kessler can’t save you now!!

          old salty says:
          August 25, 2015 at 12:28 PM
          Soupy out there. In copley place.
          Appears to be a sea breeze.
          Hmmm
          Could nws be correct?
          Reply
          avatar

          old salty says:
          August 25, 2015 at 12:29 PM
          Logsn east wind at 9 knots.
          Feels stronger here.
          Reply

      2. I am a longtime lurker, think the last time I posted here was June. And I’m not Old Salty, just really excited.

      1. OH,

        That is it. GUILTY as charged.
        My Android device has saved Old Salty and I never
        updated the device to have Jp Dave.

        Would not have thought of that in 100 years! 😆 😆 😆

        Hope all got a good laugh out of that unintended duplex handle.

  35. East wind and cooler in Reading. Just watched a towing cumulus go up and immediately die on the boundary.

  37. re: ERIKA

    12Z GFDL

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015082512-erika05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    12Z HWRF

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2015082512/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_05L_43.png

    12Z CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015082512/gem_mslp_wind_watl_26.png

    12Z EURO at 120 hours. What a difference 12 hours makes!!! From 944MB to ZIPPO!!!

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015082512/ecmwf_mslpa_watl_6.png

  39. Latest HRRR shows convection in Boston at 2PM!!! 😆 😆

    What a piece of CRAP that is!!! 😆 😆

  40. re: ERIKA (2PM Advisory)

    Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48
    hours. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
    investigate Erika later this afternoon.

  44. 19Z HRRR is STILL insisting on convection in and around the City this afternoon.
    NOT seeing any signs of that as of yet. 😀

    he he he he

    1. Today, this model does NOT know what’s going to happen 2 hours after the run.
      PPP=PPP
      Piss Poor Planning = Piss Poor Performance

      I don’t know what is wrong with that model. That guy at the NWS
      office must be feeding it information. 😀

  45. Granted I got this wrong too, but the E wind has penetrated several miles inland including beyond Woburn. There are not even any cumulus overhead or east of me! Some towers to the west moving NNE but nothing really firing on that boundary. Everything remains stuck on a trough line to the W of that.

      1. That would be the boundary between the light S wind and the E wind. Cumulus, a few brief showers, but nothing of significance yet at least.

    2. Hey TK, what’s with the HRRR???

      It’s really shitting the bed today. That model is a real crap shoot. 😀
      (Pun intended!)

  46. Regarding the posts earlier…

    I was not referring to bostbliz. I was referring to the o.s. posts that popped up at 12:28PM and 12:29PM. 😀

    It doesn’t matter what name you use, as long as it’s blog-friendly…and not “Woods Hill Weather”. 😉

  47. Here’s the latest on ERIKA

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/252045.shtml

    Excerpt

    After becoming quite disorganized in appearance earlier today,
    Erika has made a bit of a comeback with increased deep convection
    near and to the south of the center.

    OFFICAL forecast for 18Z 8/30:

    120H 30/1800Z 25.0N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

    That places it not very far to the East of Miami, FL whose coordinates are:

    25.7753° N, 80.2089° W

    The NHC, I believe, takes a model consensus blend.

    Global models weaken it and take it South and then remains into the Gulf
    Hurricane models keep it stronger and more East and take it into the vicinity
    of the Bahamas.

    2. Go by the Chas hurricane model, it’s right 90% of the time, it will pass east of us by 100’s of miles, no harm done. 🙂

      1. 90% hmm? I want to see stats and confirmed case studies please. 😛

        I’ll stick to the scientific method. It’s not perfect but it’s the best we have. 😀

  50. So let me expand a little bit on the statement I made earlier today about having trouble getting stuff inside 495 until at least 8PM. It may not even happen after 8PM but that remains to be seen. The statement was based partly on this. We were still under the influence of the marine layer last night and into this morning. We never had much of anything in the way of a southwest wind to scour it out. Yes the dew points went up, but it was already humid and we just slowly advected the higher dew point air into the region with time. But that lingering marine mix has provided some margin of stability which has been sufficient to suppress solid convection in eastern MA and adjacent areas.

  51. Ya know folks, confusing an old lady is not permitted. But I figured out a bit ago old salty posts mobile and JP Dave …well, not mobile. BostBliz wss here before and I was as excited to see him(?) here again. Good grief if I remember and can figure this out younguns are in trouble 😈

    And the C scale? Seriously, shoot me now.

            1. How’s that?
              I can be very confusing. Just ask my wife.
              I assume people know what I am thinking. Not always the case.
              My mind is always 100 miles
              Ahead of me.

  53. re: ERIKA

    18Z GFS bring Erika through Caribbean as a wave then totally dissipates it. RIP
    See Ya!

  55. NOW we’re going to start seeing the instability axis shift to the east. And not only that, it’s increasing. So here we go – getting a line forming as evening turns to nighttime. Next question – how far east does it make it? I’m honestly not sure yet, but some places me get a lightning show in the next few hours.

  56. Very frequent lightning in the distant WNW from here. I actually caught a photo of it lighting up part of the cloud with my cell phone. 😉

      2. Intensifying cells within it.

        One cell just over the border in NH is supercell with a hook. NO warning yet.

  60. The cell out ny fitchburg into s nh is mighty
    Intense.
    One out by springfield is as well and gettin
    Stronger!!@

  61. It has been almost constant here for 45 mins. Could crack open a can of beer or six and watch this all night.

    1. Yep. But great show. I can imagine how vivid it was for Scott I’m sterling if we can see it so well from here

      1. Makes no sense Vicki, I said nothing would happen this morning, plus the Chas model is a hurricane model 🙂

  68. Yawn and good morning.
    Re: ERIKA
    Holy Beaufort Scale Batman! Look at all of those knots!

    GFDL

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015082600-erika05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    134.6 mph, a cat 4

    HWRF

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015082600-erika05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    93 mph

    6Z Spaghetti chart

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png

    6Z intensity chart

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png

    Note: Global models don’t want much to do with Erika having it ripped to shreads
    while traversing the Caribbean. Some have a bit of a resurgence, but not much.

  69. We have another weather model in our arsenal:

    MeteoFrance-ARPEGE / North America (mesh: 7 to 35 km, interpolated to 50 km) Fr En

    I have no idea how good or Bad it is, just that it is available.

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