Wednesday Forecast Update

136 Comments

7:43AM

DAYS 1-5…
A transition day today. A weak cold front still sitting over eastern MA, southeastern NH, and RI, moving slowly to the east will be offshore later but still close enough to maybe pop a shower in a few locations this morning with a slightly greater chance across Cape Cod of activity lingering through midday. Otherwise it’s a slow clearing and drying trend but still warm despite the passage of a cold front. Ok, so why is it still called a cold front? It is, by definition, but really it’s just an air mass change. It’s not cold behind the front at all. We’ll just be introduced to a new air mass from the west that is drier than the one currently over the region. And speaking of that new air mass, it will bring some very nice weather Thursday through Saturday before humidity returns on Sunday as high pressure slips offshore and opens the door to air from the south.
TODAY: Lots of clouds southeastern NH and eastern MA with isolated showers this morning and a chance of showers and thunderstorms Cape Cod through midday with more sun and patchy clouds in other locations. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny this afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Wind W up to 15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 56-63. Highs 75-82.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Highs 78-85.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 58-65. Highs 80-87.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMER 4)…
Higher humidity with sun and clouds with warm temperatures August 31. A disturbance will bring cloudiness and a risk of showers with high humidity September 1. High pressure ridge builds into the region with fair weather, moderate to high humidity, and warmer to hotter air September 2-4.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)…
At least part of Labor Day Weekend September 5-7 may be fair and hot as high pressure dominates. Looking for a transition with showers sometime September 7-9, not as hot but possibly quite humid as high pressure tries to hold on but battles with a jet stream and disturbance just to the north.

136 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks TK. Not much rain in that forecast. Still a little ways off, but with this pattern seemingly locked, it could be a poor foliage season, leaves will turn from green to brown overnight in conditions like this.

    1. I haven’t seen too much tree stress at this point – very little early leaf drop. So depending on how things are going forward we’ll see. Even with what I think will turn out to be a hot and dry September overall we’ll probably have an ok season, even as I think we’ll be on the mild side going forward through Autumn.

      1. Stress may be more from the winter moths in the spring.

        Happy birthday to young TK. It is a big birthday.

  3. Some re-posts from earlier today. 😀

    Jp Dave says:
    August 26, 2015 at 6:16 AM
    Yawn and good morning.
    Re: ERIKA
    Holy Beaufort Scale Batman! Look at all of those knots!

    GFDL

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015082600-erika05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    134.6 mph, a cat 4

    HWRF

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015082600-erika05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    93 mph

    6Z Spaghetti chart

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png

    6Z intensity chart

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png

    Note: Global models don’t want much to do with Erika having it ripped to shreads
    while traversing the Caribbean. Some have a bit of a resurgence, but not much.
    Reply
    avatarJp Dave says:
    August 26, 2015 at 7:06 AM
    Sea Surface temperatures

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png
    Reply
    avatarJp Dave says:
    August 26, 2015 at 6:49 AM
    We have another weather model in our arsenal:

    MeteoFrance-ARPEGE / North America (mesh: 7 to 35 km, interpolated to 50 km) Fr En

    I have no idea how good or Bad it is, just that it is available.

  4. re: ERIKA 6Z Hurricane models

    GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082606/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_05L_22.png

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015082606-erika05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    125 knots = 143.8 mph, a true MONSTER!!!

    HWRF

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2015082606/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_05L_43.png

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015082600-erika05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    80 knots = 92 mph

    Two (2) Hurricane models, 2 completely divergent results.

    The official NHC track is towards Miami and more in line with the HWRF.

    1. You are correct Tom!!! Where are my manners.

      Many thanks as always TK!!

      I didn’t get to see much of the light show last evening. I saw some briefly
      before we went into the store. When we came out, I couldn’t see a thing.
      It was over!!

      1. Well it woke me up from a sound sleep at 1:30 this morning . Very loud and bright with heavy rain.

          1. I did too and I’m a light sleeper. My wife was up and she heard it but said it didn’t seem all that close. I don’t think it even rained here.

    1. Erika “could” become a beast, however, the global models have her
      ripped apart in the Caribbean. What a Dilemma. We just have to wait
      and see.

      Either way, it is increasingly looking to be less and less a threat to
      New England. Can’t write it off just yet, but it’s looking better for a miss, either OTS or dissipation.

  7. Its been a while (15 + days ??) since dewpoints have been under 60F.

    In that time, nights have probably lengthened by 45 minutes to 1 hr. For whatever reason, I really noticed last night that the sun was “below the trees” by 7pm.

    So, when we get into the lower humidity the next few days, I’m going to guess the evenings are going to cool relatively early and rapidly.

    Nice break before next week and its warmth….. What is it with the first few days of school always seemingly being hot ? 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I remember taking some classes at UMass Boston in 77 or 78 and that September seemed very warm.

        1. I think there were two Aprils in a row that had warm temps. 75 and 76 or 76 and 77….I remember the marathon being very warm to hot.

    2. I was thinking the same, Tom. I have really enjoyed watching the sun on the lower part of the trees in our back yard around 7:00ish every night. I have no idea why it makes any more difference than say at 8:00ish in mid-summer but somehow it just does.

      I always enjoy the time changes and I guess perhaps it is the promise of things to come.

  8. Thanks TK.
    Going to be enjoying this great stretch of weather.
    If Erika becomes a hurricane and hits Florida I believe it will be the first hurricane since Wilma to hit the state.

  10. Summer never goes quietly and it seems we usually get one last blast of heat and humidity in the early part of September. I remember the early part of last September had a good deal of heat and humidity. It felt like there was more humidity then there was in June July August.

    1. You may be feeling warmth much past September if this El Niño goes to as strong as some think. Could we have a mild winter like a few yrs ago with very little snow?

      1. I think I posted the info before but it was either the winter of 2001-02 or 2002-03 that was much above normal. In fact I believe there were only 3 or 4 days at Logan where the high temp did not reach 32. I remember my gas (fuel) bill being lower in January than it had been in September.

          1. Yes it was but I think the earlier one may have been even warmer. Doesn’t matter one way or the other but a warmer (less snow) winter would be nice.

            1. It wouldn’t be nice Keith it would be awesome!!!! I would be thrilled. Hope all is well with you.

              1. Everything is good here John…hope all is well with you. And yes it would be awesome (And I love snowstorms)…would give my shoulder more time to get over last winter 🙂

      2. That was the winter of 11-12 where Boston had its second least snowiest winter on record.
        The only winter this decade so far with below normal snowfall for Boston.

  11. Thanks TK and have a great day today with Nate!

    ps….I tried to score some tix again to Water Country for you but we didn’t get them this year. 🙁

  12. TK, will September end as hot as it will begin? I know you have been saying that the fall overall will be warm & dry but will there be some typical cool periods as well?

    As for foliage I have already seen a bit of color on the trees here and there but nothing to really write home about either.

  14. Keith it was winter of 01-02. Winter of 02-03 had above normal snowfall including the Presidents Day Storm which is the biggest snowfall on record for Boston beating the blizzard of 78.

    1. NHC expects ERIKA to strike Florida as a minimal Hurricane.

      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 26/1500Z 16.1N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
      12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
      24H 27/1200Z 17.6N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
      36H 28/0000Z 18.7N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
      48H 28/1200Z 19.8N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
      72H 29/1200Z 22.0N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
      96H 30/1200Z 24.4N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
      120H 31/1200Z 26.5N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH…INLAND

  17. Florida has not been hit by a hurricane since Wilma in October 2005.
    Got to see what Erika looks like if it crosses Florida and gets into Gulf of Mexico and see if there is anything left of it will conditions be favorable for strengthening.
    Katrina first landfall was in South Florida as a hurricane and we all know what happened when it emerged in the Gulf of Mexico. Not saying this will happen but something to keep an eye on.

  19. There are areas of south Florida that are in extreme drought. It would be nice if Erika does what Danny did and weaken and just give beneficial rainfall like Danny did to Puerto Rico.

  21. Waiting patiently for the front to come through. Tired of the humidity, will be a nice break for a couple days.

      1. As I type, the temp is 81 and DP down to 62. We are using ACs at this point just to dry the house out.

  23. 12Z CMC is back on board with ERIKA

    Most intense at 0Z on 9/3 or 8PM 9/2

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015082612/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

    Then it ends up here

    The 12Z Euro also is back on board, although much weaker

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015082600/ecmwf_mslpa_us_9.png

    Both models having ERIKA looping around after those positions depicted above

    GFS is also on board pretty much for the first time

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015082612/gfs_mslpa_us_28.png

    6Z NAVGEM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2015082606/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24.png

    Still waiting on 12Z hurricane models, but safe to say this thing looks like the real deal now. It’s just a matter of the final track and intensity.

    1. I can that so far on the 12Z run, the HWRF as of 6Z 8/31 has ERIKA down
      to 952 MB and that’s at hour 114 and it goes to hour 126, so we shall see.

      Still waiting on GFDL.

  24. ERIKA

    12Z GFDL, 931 MB!!!

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082612/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_05L_22.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2015082612/gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_22.png

    500MB chart

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082612/gfdl-p_z500_vort_05L_22.png

    200 MB chart

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082612/gfdl-p_uv200_05L_22.png

    I Believe that would be a minimal Cat 4, although not much minimal about a CAT 4!

    I’m sorry, but that does not look good. That could be the pure ocean route to SNE!

    Get the Fans and hair dryers out. We need to push this thing OTS

    HWRF MUCH closer to Florida and SE coast. Coming soon

        1. Not time to be alarmed, but We should be on guard as other solutions are still on the table.

          My gut says it does NOT strike Florida, but comes
          closer to the coast than the GFDL and it moves up off
          Florida to off shore of GA and SC and then clips the outer banks of NC and starts a bee line towards SNE, BUT re-curves OTS between NC and SNE.

          BUT oh so much could change with that!!!!!

          I am NOT worried at this time, but patiently watching and waiting to see where ERIKA goes.

  25. OK, here is the wider view of the 12Z HWRF

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2015082612/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_05L_43.png

    500 MB

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2015082612/hwrf-p_z500_vort_05L_43.png

    200MB

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2015082612/hwrf-p_uv200_05L_43.png

    To me, this a somewhat reasonable solution. We shall see.

    Pretty damn scary that these models are showing this.

    We’ll keep watching.

    1. Now the question becomes will the system survive the next couple of days to make it into an area more conducive for development that will eventually lead to possible pressure outcomes like this ?

      1. Good question and my answer is a resounding yes.

        Why?, the good man says.

        Well previously the GFS, CMC and EURO all said NO storm.
        NOW, they all say, YUP OK, ERIKA WILL make through the
        hostile environment.

        So we wait and see.

          1. This is going to be a potent system.
            Let’s hope it stays far enough off shore.

            Some conflicting information on it’s trajectory
            coming North.

            Some models have it doing a loop.

            I wish the Hurricane models would go out
            beyond 126 hours.

    1. Finally a nice breeze. Feels like forever since I’ve felt a nice comfortable breeze. The air had been so stale and stagnant for so long.

      1. It has been a long stretch. Our porch floor has been like a skating rink for days with a thin coat of water. How is your outdoor project coming?

        1. Its coming along. Not as quickly as I’d hoped but its really only me doing it so it will take some more time. I got a 12×12′ section of the patio done and a makeshift firepit done in time for my wife’s surprise bday party last weekend which was good 🙂

    1. To me, anything above 60 blows chunks!!!
      65 sucks and 70+ is totally completely unbearable and intolerable!!!!

  35. Video from Mike’s Weather Page

    Mike’s Weather Page
    1 hr · Oldsmar, FL
    Current satellite shows how Erika is fighting to stay aligned. You can see the low level circulation (yellowish) is off to the NW of the main convection area (white). She will need to stack better if she wants to organize. Still appears to be heading west.

    https://video.xx.fbcdn.net/hvideo-xlf1/v/t42.1790-2/11943981_10153462927547367_1418582816_n.mp4?efg=eyJybHIiOjEyMjIsInJsYSI6NTEyfQ%3D%3D&rl=1222&vabr=679&oh=8bbe3eb9beb4972f1d96989bfb6ee7e5&oe=55DE4227

  36. Oh my, fresh air!
    The A/C sure did get a good work out – can’t wait to see the electric bill for this month (not really)
    Our dew point is at a refreshing 56! Quite lovely 🙂

              1. Today’s 12 and 18z runs seem to up the ante for some kind of affect on the U.S. ….. I think the models will need another 48-72 hrs to have better accuracy on the trof/ridges at mid latitudes and how that affects this think around a week from now.

                1. Agree Tom. Until Erika regains some sort of center of low pressure, models will have a hard time nailing down a track.

  43. This is like the third or fourth year now that a storm is being watched heading towards Labor Day.

      1. I know we had Irene and wss it Eric…I probably made that name up. Those were a couple To three years ago. I don’t rememeber the last two years. Do you recall their names?

  44. What effect will the Bermuda High have on an East Coast hurricane? Will it keep the storm from curving out to sea? Could the high’s circulation funnel it up the coast? Full moon is this Saturday! High tides will already be running 2-3′ higher into next week up and down the East Coast!!!

  45. ERIKA

    18Z HWRF

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2015082618/hwrf-p_mslp_pwat_05L_43.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2015082618/hwrf_mslp_pwat_05L_43.png

    Minimal Cat 4

    18Z GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082618/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_05L_22.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2015082618/gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_22.png

    So both models show a minimal Cat 4 hurricane with the GFDL ever so slightly stronger at 941MB vs 945MB. Pretty close, eh?

    Don’t like the positions of either of these

  46. 18Z GFDL
    200 MB

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082618/gfdl-p_uv200_05L_22.png

    500 MB

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p&region=05L&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2015082618&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=724

    18Z HWRF
    200MB

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2015082618/hwrf-p_uv200_05L_43.png

    500 MB

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p&region=05L&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2015082618&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=724

    A little too close for comfort, but even these 2 models look like they will
    re-curve Erika OTS South of SNE. Let’s hope anyway.

    1. If Erika decides to be stubborn (which would be a very big “if”), I think the Outer Banks might see their share of wind and rain.

  51. Erika looks much better tonight, but I would lay down a ton of money that it doesn’t make it close to us. Think it lands near SE Florida and then curves out to sea.

    Refreshing air finally. Still running the AC to keep the house cool until the natural AC takes care of the house. Usually takes a day or two before the house is comfortable. But I run the AC in our bedroom all the time bc I like it cold :).

  53. By this time tomorrow, we will know more that it will take it well east and south of us, these tropical systems don’t effect us normally, this one will be no different.

  54. Nice early morning in the city at 64. Humidity kicks back in on Sunday
    And I’m hoping for a hot 3 day weekend. It would really be nice to have a hot labor day .

  55. Latest ERIKA track from NHC

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0515W5_NL_sm2+gif/084828W5_NL_sm.gif

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 27/0900Z 16.8N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 27/1800Z 17.6N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
    24H 28/0600Z 19.0N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
    36H 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
    48H 29/0600Z 21.5N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
    72H 30/0600Z 24.0N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
    96H 31/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
    120H 01/0600Z 29.0N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

    CMC and GFS have it make landfall in NC and move it inland from there.
    No more OTS

    Eric last night Delcared that Erika would pass out to sea well South of SNE.

    Hmmm, perhaps not so fast??

    1. Well now. 6Z GFS has it hit a stone wall off of SC and turn around and start
      heading SSE. Not far enough out to see where it goes from there.

      Is OTS back on the table?

  56. How about DT having to eat crow with his west track. He was so adamant yesterday that it would hit Florida or go into the GOM. He’s a good met but what an ass and when he’s wrong he needs to be told so I am taking care of that today 🙂

    1. Go get him Hadi. He sure was adamant. Not likely to hit Florida.

      Take a look at the 6Z GFS loop. It does a horse shoe loop up along coast
      of Florida almost to coast of SC and then SSE back way off shore of Florida.
      Very strange motion.

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