Thursday Forecast Update

180 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5…
High pressure takes control for the next 5 days. A drier air mass has arrived and will hang around for the next 3 days before some August humidity makes a return for Sunday and Monday.
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to clear. Lows 56-63. Wind light NW.
FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 56-63. Highs 78-85.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 58-65. Highs 80-87.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Highs 82-89.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)…
Disturbance brings clouds and a few showers September 1 followed by fair and very warm to hot weather September 2-5.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)…
Fair and hot September 6. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms September 7-10 with temperatures remaining mostly above normal.

180 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast Update”

    1. Ssk Labor Day isn’t this weekend. It is late this year. I keep thinking it should be this weekend also

  3. Thanks, TK.

    Beautiful morning! Actually a bit cool earlier w/temps. in upper 50’s. But, that’s ok. Humidity and warmer temps. coming back. And ‘though I like some HHH in the summer, I’ve had enough. Looking forward to the cool, crisp days of fall. I know this fall may be warm a good deal of the time, but the shortness of the days, I think, also shortens the heat of the day. But not the humidity, unfortunately. Actually, we shouldn’t complain. Just a few months and some of us (prob’ly me, too) will complain how cold it is. Also, weather gets interesting w/tropical systems, now. Is Erika really a possible threat to us?

  4. Thanks TK. Lovely morning.

    Jt Thot a potential path had a glancing blow to Miami from Erika with miami on weak side. Nothing here from Erika.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK

    RE_POST

    Jp Dave says:
    August 27, 2015 at 6:27 AM
    Latest ERIKA track from NHC

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0515W5_NL_sm2+gif/084828W5_NL_sm.gif

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 27/0900Z 16.8N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 27/1800Z 17.6N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
    24H 28/0600Z 19.0N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
    36H 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
    48H 29/0600Z 21.5N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
    72H 30/0600Z 24.0N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
    96H 31/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
    120H 01/0600Z 29.0N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

    CMC and GFS have it make landfall in NC and move it inland from there.
    No more OTS

    Eric last night Delcared that Erika would pass out to sea well South of SNE.

    Hmmm, perhaps not so fast??
    Reply
    avatarJp Dave says:
    August 27, 2015 at 6:31 AM
    Well now. 6Z GFS has it hit a stone wall off of SC and turn around and start
    heading SSE. Not far enough out to see where it goes from there.

    Is OTS back on the table?
    Reply
    avatarJp Dave says:
    August 27, 2015 at 6:42 AM
    6Z Spaghetti chart

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png

    6Z Intensity Chart

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png

    Sea Surface temperature map

    http://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/at_sst_mm.gif
    Reply

  6. Interesting,

    Now all of a sudden one of the hurricane models wants Erika to hit Florida.

    6Z HWRF

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2015082706/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_05L_43.png

    Then the other one blows Erika up into a Strong Cat 4 hurricane in a dangerous
    position, so obviously parameters are in play that are confusing the models.
    Fair to say that we just don’t know yet.

    Here is the 6Z GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082706/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_05L_22.png

    Zoomed in view

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2015082706/gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_22.png

  7. Thanks for the links and the explanation, JPD. I don’t count Roker who said it may hit FL. JR, as I said, and Eric I find to be excellent. JR didn’t declare it would hit FL but that it was a possibility. Was Eric certain or just saying possible track s well?

    Seems neither has it coming here. As we all know very well, it is more difficult to get a hurricane to come up here, but it is hardly impossible. I’m sure enjoying the discussion here around it and all of the links keeping us informed. These marvels (yes dangerous, which I do not discount, but still marvels) of nature are fun to track no matter where they go.

    1. Vicki,

      Admittedly, I was 1/2 asleep, but I swear on a stack of bibles
      that Eric clearly stated the ERIKA would pass out to sea well South
      of New England. Frankly, I was very surprised he said that, because to
      me anyway, it was still up in the air, even though there were some signs
      it would pass OTS.

      Now there is even more model divergence, so I am at a loss as to what
      Erika will do.

      I agree on one thing, it is fun tracking this thing. 😀

      1. I read Eric’s article on it too and he did say his opinion was Erika would just brush Florida, stall around for a few days off the SE coast and then curve sharply OTS.

        2. Thanks Ace and JPD. JR did say the same and made it clear it was his current opinion. Seems they are both on the exact same page.

      1. Just saying. All other members models had sandy either going into the gulf of OTS and the euro’s solution at the time was a joke too

        1. OH, I understand that completely. The Euro nailed
          Sandy for sure. Just that the 0z run seems to lose
          Erika completely and I do not understand that.
          Perhaps it was just a bad run, because it has had it
          all along.

          Waiting on 12Z

        1. Oh I know but thanks. Made me think of and miss my father in law. Anything even hinting at the South Carolina area and he and I would be on and off the phone or emailing for days.

    2. That’s the tightest spaghetti I’ve seen so far. Intensity chart on the other hand, all over the place.

      1. It is pretty tight, isn’t it.

        We’re getting closer. Let’s see if the 12Z runs can be tighter
        in their track and intensity. I can’t stand wild divergence.
        I don’t ever expect each model to be the same, but wild divergence
        drives me nuts.

  12. Thanks TK.
    Tropical systems have a mind of their own in my opinion and don’t go where the model guidance suggests.
    Perfect example Charley in 2004 models had it affecting Tampa area and Charley ended up taking a left hand turn south of Tampa and Punta Gorda took the brunt of it where Tampa which was suppose to get hit hard escaped.
    I think everyone on east coast needs to keep an eye on this.

  13. It’s one thing to speculate here what may happen with a tropical system in terms of landfall so many days in advance but for any broadcast media outlet to be doing this now is a giant mistake IMO.

    1. THANK YOU!

      I think that Eric is fantastic, but I nearly fell out of my easy chair
      when he pronounced Erika was headed OTS. He really stuck his
      neck out with that statement and it “may” bite him in the ass. Of
      course he could end up being correct as well. Time will tell. 😀

      BTW, isn’t about time you shared your current thoughts on Erika?
      You’ve been holding out on us. 😀

    2. Agreed. I think Eric’s post was originally intended to be more of a clarification for the average viewer. He was attempting to explain all the complexities and simplify all the different tracks and intensities and all the possibilities but I think it came across as him giving a forecast for its eventual outcome.

  14. The center of Erika looks to be south of Puerto Rico with the biggest convection away from the center. If that center goes through Puerto Rico and Hispanola with those mountains this COULD rip this system apart.

    1. JJ I was just thinking something similar.

      I was thinking something a bit different. It “looks” like Erika
      wants to pass South of Puerto Rico and not North like forecast.

      Infra Red loop

      http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

      GFDL forecast

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2015082706/gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_5.png

      HWRF forecast

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2015082706/hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_9.png

      If it heads South, all bets are off and this could end up in the Gulf. We’ll have to keep watching satellite loops for “real time” track.

  15. Did anyone read Eric’s blog?? I went there because I like to see first hand what the problem is. I heard JR so know what he said but did not hear Eric. Maybe I’m nuts (I certainly can be). However, I see a more than reasonable explanation of what COULD happen that is full of ifs and maybes and do not discounts.

    Two paragraphs, in particular and in reference to our area, caught my attention.

    “Will Erika strike the U.S.? That part of its story is still unclear. Models have been trending toward a strong re-curve, taking the center of the storm very close to the southeast shoreline…but not making landfall. Since we’re talking early next week, this scenario is not set in stone yet. Anyone from Florida to North Carolina should be keeping a close eye on the storm’s progress and any forecast updates over the next couple of days. Even a glancing blow from a strong hurricane could bring heavy rain to the coast, heavy surf, and erosion.”

    and

    “It’s never wise to write off a tropical system a week in advance, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on it through the weekend. Slight changes in intensity and track can have tremendous impacts. Just look at some of the Katrina info that’s floating around the internet this week. A storm that was supposed to ride up into Florida for a 2nd sunshine state landfall ended up being adjusted all the way west to New Orleans. But for now, the highest risk looks to be in the Bahamas and then the SE coast of the U.S.”

    Seems fair and responsible to me.

    1. Yes, I agree completely. However, He did not say that on air OR I was too groggy
      and missed something. But I “thought” I distinctly heard that Erika
      WOULD pass OTS South of New England.

  16. Latest NHC track of Erika. A bit snugger to the coast of Florida with this run.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145821.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

    Intensity

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 27/1500Z 16.4N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 28/0000Z 17.5N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 28/1200Z 18.8N 67.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 29/0000Z 20.0N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
    48H 29/1200Z 21.4N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
    72H 30/1200Z 23.9N 77.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
    96H 31/1200Z 26.5N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
    120H 01/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

      1. Indeed, that is a possibility.

        My biggest fear is that some how, some way, this thing
        becomes a Major hurricane and maintains intensity as it
        takes the “ocean” route to a direct hit somewhere in SNE.

        That is NOT a forecast, just my biggest fear. I know it is
        highly unlikely, but until such time that we can sound
        the all clear, I do worry about that scenario.

  17. I just heard one of our meteorologist here in CT Ryan Hanrahan say the pattern is not right for a hurricane to come up here into New England and the chances are very low and not worth losing sleep over.

  18. To clarify: I was not referring to Eric. 🙂

    Thoughts on Erika a bit later. Good reason for holding off so far. 🙂

    2. I knew that and will have to check but didn’t intend to imply you did. I certainly apologize if I did give that impression. I also understand that it would seem too soon to reasonably speculate. However, as early as it is, the “media” may not have a choice in when it reports. It seems to me that some of the better mets here, such as Eric and JR,etc., have figured a way around media pressure to be the first to report. They do so with many ifs and buts and maybe’s. Possibly they have not figured out the nuances in the on air reports but seems they are moving to their website to elaborate. For that, I say….job well done!

      1. Eric’s BZ blog is always superior, not doubt about it.
        On air, Eric is usually flawless. I “may” have caught
        a little boo boo last night.

        1. That’s ok – we all make boo boo’s 🙂 And I totally agree re his blog. It is incredibly informative and educational

  19. I agree with you Dave. I want to see what Erika looks like after moving away from Puerto Rico and Hispanola. Looking at satellite the center is away from the biggest convection which shows a system not really well organized.

  20. I’m a bit concerned with the 12Z GFS run.
    It “looks” like the upper winds “want” to back around.
    Beginning to “look” like it wants to open a path to up here.
    If not, then Erika “should” re-curve OTS south of New England.

    Anxiously watching each frame unfold.

    1. 12Z GFS run, Westerly and Northwesterly flows in the upper atmosphere
      are relaxing. Hope they hold. very anxious at the moment.

  21. 12Z GFS shows a really deep trough just to the West of the spin of the Apalachians
    and moving Eastward. I dunno. What a super interesting run. And yes, it is just
    one run, but I don’t think we can give it the all clear just yet.

    Anyone else watching this run?

    1. If that 12z run doesn’t illustrate the importance of where and what the mid latitude trofs and ridges are like and located, nothing will.

      That’s the thing though about coming into September. As the transition into autumn begins, there can be rapid, significant change in mid latitude flow.

  23. Dick Albert ‏@dickalbert44 · 28m28 minutes ago  Maine, USA
    Boy, that GEM has ERIKA heading right up the East Coast. Scary, but usually not the correct solution.All#Eyes.

      1. Unfortunately, if it impacts somewhere, all these somewhat varied solutions mean the lead time given to the public to prepare is going to be low.

    1. Very much so.

      Wouldn’t take much of a change to have that
      CMC solution turn into a direct hit somewhere in SNE. Not much at all.

      Saving thing is, so far anyway, the solutions give a Cat 1 or minimal
      Cat 2 at best up this way. Of course, that could change.

  27. That GFS run had me dizzy!!!!

    Now onto the Euro. I am buckling my seat belt.

    What will it do? What will it do?

    1. It looks like its trying to redefine its center. I think the center will re-emerge well north of where the bulk of the convection is currently located.

  30. Holy Freakin Mother of Batman!!!!

    12Z GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082712/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_05L_22.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2015082712/gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_22.png

    200MB Winds. SCARY Stuff!!!

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082712/gfdl-p_uv200_05L_22.png

    500MB

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082712/gfdl-p_z500_vort_05L_22.png

    More scary stuff

    That is 141.8 knots OR 163.18053 mph.

    My friends, that is a LEGITIMATE CATEGORY 5 Monster just of the Outer Banks
    of North Carolina!!!!

    I know, I know, it’s only one model, but OMG, the possibilities with this thing!!

    2. How accurate is that model? Perhaps there is no real answer to how accurate any model is. That is one monster.

      2. Vicki,
        Honestly, I do not know.

        I found this:

        By Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology
        Types of hurricane forecasting models

        The best hurricane forecasting models we have are “global” models that solve the mathematical equations governing the behavior of the atmosphere at every point on the globe. Models that solve these equations are called “dynamical” models. The four best hurricane forecast models—ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, and UKMET—are all global dynamical models. These models take several hours to run on the world’s most advanced supercomputers.

        Based on that, I would say that the GFDL is at least
        reasonable. Perhaps TK can weigh in on this.

  34. So far, the Euro takes a very weak system across Southern Florida
    into the far Eastern Gulf??? Can you say model divergence.

    Now we have to wait longer still to get some model consistency, if ever.

  36. Common theme i’m seeing in today’s runs is the “alley” setting up along the east coast. Trough west, bermuda high east and in a favorable location for up the coast movement, not OTS

    1. Yes, indeed. Except for the Euro and UKMET, which seems to want
      to run this thing UNDERNEATH that set up you describe.

      Very interesting to watch this play out.

    2. Probably quite true.

      Now, can the system get its act together …. If it does, that might mean that the higher altitude steering currents control the system more and it likely goes towards the eastern side of the track cone. Conversely, if it’s sheared and weak, the displaced low level circulation is most likely affected by the low level flow and will go the western/southern side of the cone, as the EURO shows.

  37. I’ll give it 2 days at the most before some TV pundit starts talking about a LIE variety ‘cane.

  38. Just a thought – I know tropical systems are very unpredictable, but on average, with where Erika is now, historically speaking, where do hurricanes tend to end up? Any storms in the past that had the same ingredients and location and where did they end up? Or is this an impossible question I’m asking?

  39. Based on what we’ve seen from Erika, which is very disorganized and being sheared, I currently side with the EURO and UK Met. Weaker system, further west and somewhat south track with an overall weak system.

    1. Probably the next 24 -48 hours will tell us whether Erika can even survive. It has to cross over some islands and beat the upper level winds. If it survives these, then it could reach hurricane status quickly.

      3. I’l tell you what it is doing. It is turning more to the NW.
        That means the Euro and UKMET solutions “may” be all wet.
        We shall see.

        1. You’re right. First looking at it it looks like it is moving straight west – but storms are getting stronger to the north and that is and I bet will push it more northwest. But, like you say, we shall see.

    1. IF this were the case, then we would only have to worry about one (1) of them,
      namely IRENE. 1 in 10 or 10%

      However, I am NOT saying we have a 10% chance of getting this storm.
      It “may” be higher than 10%. It “may” be less than 10%, but ‘d say we have
      a 30% chance of being impacted.

    2. Thank you! Looks a bit ominous for the east coast and even a chance for us. We shall see – all interesting and exciting to see what happens. NOT exciting if that thing is strong and hits land, ‘though.

        1. Well thank you!!!!!

          I was at a total loss.

          Yes, indeed. And a real LIE is not out of the question.
          That was the great hurricane of 38 and to a much lesser
          extent, G-L-O-R-I-A

    1. I prefer looking at these things in black and white because the movement (to me, anyway) is clearer. Movement to the north seems very clear to me here.

        1. Just looking at various satellite loops, My guess would
          be that it will make it just fine.

          And I do believe it WILL be game on and ALL interests
          along the East coast from Florida to Maine WILL
          be sweating out the track and intensity.

          Even so, could still easily pass OTS WITHOUT
          ever making landfall and it also could make landfall
          ANYWHERE along the coast.

  47. I have my doubts about Erika being that far west when it makes its turn. Ridge configuration and strength is going to be key. She will probably start to recurve sooner than many of the spaghetti strands show.

    Anyway, I’m off to Canobie Lake Park with Nate for extended bday celebration. I will take another look at things 2nite. 🙂

  49. As Dave Vallee always says, you need absolutely perfect conditions to get a hurricane up here, at least in the classic sense. And when they do come up, they are nearly always in transition from tropical to extratropical or “post-tropical” (hate that term).

    So far I’m not seeing anything that screams “here comes a classic” but of course there is quite a way to go here.

    I prefer to focus on getting shorter term stuff right, like the sky condition today. Partly cloudy. It’s partly cloudy, not mostly sunny.

    2. TK, remembering back to Irene, did u have the same feelings on back then as u do now regarding Erika? I’ve been going back and doing some reading on Irene forecasts (national and local) and no mention of possible affects here until very late in the process. It was either hit and inland to the SE coast or curve OTS.

    3. Tk…interesting comment about Partly cloudy not being mostly sunny. You know how I hate the way radio stations put their own spin on official weather forecasts. Well this morning I was listening to WBUR and the news person said “It’s going to be Partly Cloudy for the next few days but you know that means Mostly Sunny”!!!

      1. Those radio folks BUTCHER the weather all of the time.

        I NEVER pay any attention to ANY weather forecast on
        the radio, NEVER!

  50. Wow, i suggest if you have the time to start going through the archives starting about Aug 20th, 2011. Almost identical discussions about Irene. Even Longshot’s “Longshot” comment was made! 😀 Overall pattern started out not conducive for a system up this way, then things changed quickly. WeatherWizard led the charge over on the BZ blog saying it would come up here with a lot of rain and he got destroyed for saying it. I’ve just begun to read some of the posts but eerily similar.

    1. I was wrong. Still at 45 mph. Sure looks healthier than that to me.

      Latest Track, really has it hugging the coast of Florida. Coast of Hispanola
      as well.

      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 27/2100Z 16.6N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
      12H 28/0600Z 17.9N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
      24H 28/1800Z 19.2N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
      36H 29/0600Z 20.7N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
      48H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
      72H 30/1800Z 24.9N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
      96H 31/1800Z 27.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
      120H 01/1800Z 29.5N 80.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

    1. I love hurricanes, the only one in my life to lived up to any standards of experiencing a hurricane was 30 yrs ago. Since then they have all been disappointments. 🙂

    2. I’ve even drove out to Chatham for I believe Humberto I’m not sure if that right, I believe in the late 90’s, prediction 12-18hrs before landfall, waited waited waited, last second took a right hook out to see. Scared ever since

  53. Beauty out there today, loving the low dew points.

    Erika is a brutal forecast challenge. Most storms are tricky, but this one is in at least the top 10% for difficulty level I think.

    1. Well said. The model divergence is astounding.

      Frankly, I don’t have a good feeling about this and I really hope that
      feeling is totally unfounded.

  55. 18Z HWRF coming in and through 60 hours, Erika is a ragged dis-jointed
    mess headed for the straight between Cuba and Florida. Don’t know if
    headed for Gulf or Northward turn into Florida. It is a total mess.

  56. Truck registered 55F on the ride home. Sitting by the window and feeling the cool air draining into the house. Invigorating …….

  57. Windows open here but I agree John house is still stuffy. Even on nights like this I sleep with AC on bc I want it cold 🙂

    1. With, this particular run, the door is open for Erika to come up here.

      However, the HWRF totally and completely lost Erika somewhere over
      the middle of Florida. A total non=event with the HWRF.

      So, go figure.

      BTW, IF I remember correctly, the GFDL was the last one to give up
      the ghost on Danny. So perhaps it’s full of crap.

    1. It doesn’t look like she’ll make that turn to the north anytime soon. Looks like she has a date with Hispaniola, she’ll get torn apart

  63. Though many of the islands have improved their infrastructure for wind damage not a lot can be done for flooding and landslides. Let’s see what’s happens with all rain hitting many islands in Erika’s path.

    In the big picture when people say it’s not a big deal etc…that’s for our location. These storms cause terrible damage and countless lives lost down in the Caribbean and I feel for those people.

  64. The concern regarding Erika is that the water temps off the SE USA coast are in the 80s so even if she does weaken considerably there is plenty of room to restrengthen. I suspect it is going to be a watcher for the entire east coast into the Maritimes come next week. I believe Eric said that if Erika does effect SNE it would be late next week or weekend. I don’t have a good feeling that the OTS track is a lock by any means.

    1. See below Philip, if the hurricane models are right then it should cut through Florida and then up through the eastern seaboard probably bringing flooding rains.

    1. I have been reading Irene discussion on WHW as Ace suggested. Most of the links are broken but one actually connected to Erika with s direct impact right up FL. Sorry I didn’t copy it

  66. Here are forecasted tracks based on all hurricane models from earlier today to tonight. Clearly the trend has been to bring this up through Florida.

  67. Irene had me more concerned but I didn’t get too worried about it until I knew it was in a position and had more favorable conditions to come up here.

    And Irene was proof that you do not need a big hurricane to get major damage, and also that it is not all about the wind. The flooding in western New England was incredible.

  68. Here is where a little meteorology comes into play…

    Many of the models may show Erika looking like it’s about to make a classic run up the East Coast… HOWEVER, this is not going to be so easily accomplished with not enough southerly wind at steering level to bring the storm northward, as we will be in a fairly weak but blocked pattern by then. So even if Erika does not turn before Florida and the Bahamas, it may get there, move north a bit, then just mill around…

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