46 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast Update”

1. Repost…
   Hadi says:
   August 29, 2015 at 7:09 AM

   Now this should give everyone a good laugh to start this beautiful Saturday morning. Supposedly this is not photoshopped and doesn’t surprise me one bit bc of the source.

   http://imgur.com/o4Ve2Np

   1. LOL! Thanks for the repost TK, great way to start my weekend

   2. Awesome! We all should “shit” east.

2. Thank you TK

   How much will the humidity build or is it drier air than we had last week?

   Seems Mother Nature is supplying her own AC to the coast.

   1. A little less humid, overall.
      Dewpoint under 60 today, rising to near 65 Sunday, near 70 Monday, 60 Tuesday, 65-70 Wednesday-Thursday, may drop a bit by Friday but not sure that far in advance.

3. Thanks tk 🙂 beautiful morning temp 63 with a 54 dp 🙂

4. Thanks TK !

5. Thanks TK.
   I am surprised looking at satellite Erika is still being called a tropical storm. It looks like a disorganized tropical wave.

6. Thanks for your hard work tk on this blog 🙂

7. Erika, come out come out wherever you are.

   http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

   For a good laugh, have a look at the CMC

   http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015082900/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

   and GFDL

   http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082906/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_05L_13.png

   The 2 worst performing models throughout the Erika saga!!!!

   the 3 best performing on this:

   HWRF
   EURO
   GFS

   1. To many obstacles were in Erika’s path. The dry air wind shear a tropical systems kryptonite.

      1. Not to mention mountainous terrain over Hispanola and now
         Cuba. 😀

8. Thanks, TK!

9. Breaking news re: Erika

   NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
   9 mins ·
   Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings are being discontinued. http://www.hurricanes.gov

   1. The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear
      could relax by the time the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, and
      there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate. Regardless of
      regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty winds should spread
      across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida during
      the next couple of days.

10. That is not a surprise considering how it looks on satellite and radar.

11. Thank you.

12. Not sure I have ever seen Hawaii threatened by so many hurricanes in a single
    season.

    1. There was another season back in the 1990s where they had several threats. Doesn’t happen too much there but sometimes during El Nino the bowling alley shifts a little bit closer to them. 1982 was another such year … of course during a strong El Nino.

       1. Will be a pretty close call with the next 2, Ignacio and Jimena.

          1. Yes, sent my message too early, meant to add that 1982 was one as well (see above).

             1. Thank you.

13. There is concern that when Erika moves back into open waters as she treks due north paralleling the western Florida coastline becoming a tropical storm again as she approaches the Panhandle.

    TK – How does SNE miss Erika’s moisture?

    1. It may regenerate to a point but may never get that strong. We will have to keep an eye on the moisture for that area no matter what happens.

       We miss it because there is nothing about this pattern that allows it to get up here.

14. he he he

    Whatever is left of Erika mositure/circulation, the CMC wants to deliver it up here

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgtQj8O92eI

    1. How did that happen. Try this

       http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015082912/gem_mslp_pcpn_neus_40.png

       1. Such a bad, bad model.

          It had one good stretch during Winter 2013-2014. Otherwise, useless.

          1. Bad model. Bad, bad model. Go in your room and don’t come out until I tell you to.

15. 80 with 54 DP. Perfect later summer weather

16. I just visited TWC’s web page for the first time in many many months.

    Allow me to editorialize slightly. This organization is about the worst possible thing that weather can have right now. I have never seen such garbage, such misleading information, meant only for shock value and of ZERO informational use.

    Every headline… EVERY ONE …is nothing but sensationalism.

    The owners of TWC and weather.com should be ASHAMED.

    Disgraceful. Rubbish. Deplorable. And just plain SAD.

    1. I completely agree yet there ratings are very high 🙁

    2. Yup. That’s why I don’t go there nor do I watch it.

       It’s basically FOX Weather 😀

17. 30,000 Patriots fans showed up to last nights preseason game #3, the local panther radio station had fans calling up pissed off lol 🙂

    1. I have never been to a Patriots game and I am a huge fan . When I go I would choose to go in September or October . My son and I will go. Pre season though I would have no interest at all in going.

       1. There all great!! 🙂

       2. 1 panther fan was bitching quote ” how the hell did we let all the Patriots fan’s in our home stadium?? The analyst says idk. Lol

18. Another one comes off the Sahara. Suspect a fish storm, but purely a guess.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    1. I’m sure 🙂

    2. Yes, check the Euro. Fish and then poof.

19. I’m beginning to think that the GFDL is the CMC of hurricane models. It’s still at it.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082906/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_05L_13.png

    1. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2015082906/gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_13.png

       1. I guess I just don’t understand why does it matter if it hits Florida? 🙂

          1. People live there too!

          2. Take a look back at the hurricane history of the state of Florida.

20. We have “Fred.”

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents

21. Updated posted!

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