9:15PM
A complex of thunderstorms from Upstate NY merged with cells over eastern NY in the last couple hours, to form a complex of storms moving rapidly east southeast across VT, western NH, western MA, and western CT. Some of these storms have been severe with damaging straight-line winds. Some have produced hail and heavy rain. Though most of the storms are showing a weakening trend, part of this complex may hold together as it moves east southeast into the Boston area in the next 2 hours. These storms are moving very rapidly, over 50 mph forward speed. A shower or thunderstorm may occur especially west and north of Boston. Some of you may see a period of gusty winds, even if you do not see any showers or storms. Later tonight, all will be quiet. See the previous post for the remainder of the forecast…
ThanksTK. Ive been watching them on radar and wondering. I can see some lightening northwest of Framingham. It’s a warm night
Warning issued for Framingham there’s a nasty looking cell to our northwest. Hoping it falls apart. I say that halfheartedly since I never mind s good thunderstorm
The storms could very well hold together, at least to some extent…no longer an ocean wind in Boston, now calm.
The most intense storms look to be heading into Southern CT right now with lightning and strong gusty winds.
They are dying. Just one cell holding on now… Regardless, some nice lightning flashes visible in the distance from Woburn.
Drove through the cell tonight in CT. Lightening was just unreal.
Adrian in the Pacific is a now a Cat 1.
Last night Sudbury got some intervals of thunder and lightning but little if any rain. It looks like Framingham got hit at one point, as Vicki pointed out. I woke up to thunder this morning and it started raining in earnest about 1/2 hr. or so ago and we are still getting rumbles of thunder.
There seems to be a lot of energy in the atmosphere this spring – obviously! With all the storms. Even last winter we had some thundersnow even when it was a minor snowstorm.
One would think that with the storms we are getting this morning, it might cut down on the severity of the storms later? At least from what I remember, that’s what used to happen.
JJ – are you still calling for a 2 in the thunderstorm index for today and tonight?
Now it is pouring out – last time I looked at the doppler radar it looked like there could be some training of storms.
Already shower activity going this hour of the day with a severe thunderstorm warning for parts of CT and RI.
Currently no watches or warnings here locally but a severe thunderstorm watch is up for parts of western NY and I would expect us to be under a severe thunderstorm watch at some point today.
I am still sticking with a 2 which is Moderate Level Activity but that could be ramped up to a 3 like last week if it looks like a widespread severe weather outbreak will happen.
Stay cool today and if you are out later today keep an eye to the sky and if you hear thunder head indoors.
Thunder off and on in Newton for the last half hour.
Some areas of SNE it round 2 or 3 with these showers and thunderstorms and this is not even associated with the cold front.
Good news is the setup is not like last Wednesday and the SPC is only giving a 2% chance for a tornado as oppossed to a 5% last Wednesday.
Hanover,Ma has received .11″ so far this morning. My lawn really needs a drink.
JJ, in regards to your thunderstorm scale. I feel that you might want to change your thought process of which numbers to issue and when. I have not seen you issue a 3 or 4 before an event has started. You generally issue them when we are experiencing these conditions thus not giving much of a warning to your followers who depend on your scale. For instance, you posted a 2 last Wednesday on the BZ Blog in the morning. A tornado watch was issued for a good portion of the area later in the day but your scale remained the same. You suggested that you may need to bump it to a 3 but did not at that time. As we all know, we witnessed a historic event later that day that I will never forget. I feel your scale should be issued based on potential and not by current conditions. This will give your fans a little more of a heads up of what to expect during the day. As we all know, thunderstorm activity is very fluid and changes quickly. It can also be very localized at times. I do not think it should be based on wide spread potential because all it takes is one storm in one community to cause devastation. I think it is quite all right to issue a higher number in the morning then decrease it as the day goes on. I think we all would rather be safe than sorry. Today for instance, there is plenty of potential out there, enough that I feel a 3 would be warranted this morning. Just my thoughts JJ, Keep up the great work!
Anyone thinking that we have a temp bust potential? If these clouds stick around no way we get up 95-100 today.
I think so Hadi.
You may be right, Hadi. Looking at the dopplar radar there are still scattered thundertorms in the Berkshires and in VT heading southeast. So there doesn’t appear to be any long-term clearing in the near future. However, I looked at the satellite loop earlier and there was a good-sized cloud-free zone in NY which could move into MA and bring on the hot temps., unless the clouds fill in.
There are more storms firing up in western new england. This may cause too much cloudiness to really heat things up.
Looking at the latest data I am upgrading to a 3 which is SEVERE. The biggest threats look to be downpours, hail, and strong potentially damaging wind gusts.
JJ,
Would it be possible to share with us your analysis on how you came up with the 3.
I am not disagreeing or anything like it, just curious to hear your thoughts.
The Tor:Con index for Western MA is 2, but Eastern sections it is less than 2.
There is some shear, but hopefully not enough. SW at surface, W at 500MB, NW at 200MB.
Many thanks
The thunderstorm index looks at thunderstorm development. The higher the number the more active I think the thunderstorms will be.
1. MINOR thunderstorms below severe levels garden variety
2. MODERATE isolated severe thunderstorms whcih happened last night across parts of SNE.
3. SEVERE more widespread severe weather event
4. EXTREME widespread severe weather with isolated tornadoes.
Last Wednedsay saw Extreme Level Activity across parts of SNE
up to 79 at logan…..and only 10 :20 AM so maybe we will get there
72 at Norwood right now so Logan is 7 degrees warmer
JJ,
Thank you for a review of your rating scale. I understand that.
What I was looking for is some input for your rating.
Ie something like. Dew points are rising, A sharp cold front approaching,
Strong winds aloft, storms firing already, etc etc. Just Some reasoning as to why the rating is a 3. I wasn’t questioning the rating.
Many thanks
From the Severe Storms Prediction Center this morning:
OVERALL THE AIR MASS FROM OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND REMAINS FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
LATER TONIGHT. WITH AROUND 30KT OF SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM…DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT…HOWEVER LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
CORES GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY.
No problem. Plenty of clear skies to the west of New England and where those clear skies are happening temperatures rising into the 80s which will further destablize the atmosphere. No watches or warnings currently but I expect that to change as we progress through the day.
JJ,
Many thanks. It looks like the atmosphere will become quite unstable and that
approaching front will be the lifting/firing mechanism. Let’s HOPE we stay away
from any tornadoes. It has not been in the discussion, but I always worry a bit
when there is shear in the atmosphere.
Oh one other thing, some of the storms that have fired were of the mesoscale
variety, which can be particularly dangerous. We’ll have to keep an eye on things
later today. With any luck, there will be a line of storms and none of this mesoscale stuff.
Many thanks
A friend in southbridge said they had extremely strong winds in 9:30ish storm last night. Lots of trees down and power out. The storm fell apart before Framingham last night but there were two minor storms this morning. I’m at meetings all week at Babson in wellesley and the tstorm was loud here at 9:00 am.
Will head home around 4 today so will watch here to see what I’m driving into. Thanks everyone.
Hmmm
SSPC has ALL of New England in a 2% chance of tornadoes. Hopefully that is low enough such that we get NONE!!! I’ll still be watching though.
Hi Old Salty – I should know this I suspect but what is SSPC?
They always say you can never rule out a tornado when you have severe thunderstorms. The threat is less compared to last week when there was a 5% chance of tornaodes. I will say this if one should develop it will be WEAK and very isolated.
Vicki,
SSPC = Severe Storms Predicition Center
I believe they are located at Norman, Oklahoma
Cheers
thank you!
I don’t know how I missed the site before but am glad I asked now. I bookmarked it – the discussion and information is great! Thanks again
The storm prediction center is in Norman, Oklahoma. They monitor the U.S. for severe weather and from there is where our severe thunderstorm or tornado watches are issued. Warnings are issued by local National Weather Service Offices.
A watch means conditions are favorable for severe weather
A warning means its imment or occurring.
Just read a discussion from the storm prediction center and it looks like some areas in New England may be upgraded to a Moderate Risk for severe weather which is something that does not happen here too often.
As I mentioned earlier I upgraded the thunderstorm index to SEVERE which is a 3 on the 1-4 scale.
JJ,
Was this the discussion:
A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE FROM SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK–DRIVEN BY A MORE
PROBABLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT–WILL BE FORTHCOMING AT THE
1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE. ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A
MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS
DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS…WHEN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED.
Yes that was the discussion.
Great information above !!! Sun is out, temps are off to the races. Should be an interesting late afternoon and early evening.
That is what I like to call self destructing sunshine as it is further destablizing the atmosphere and increasing the chance of getting those nasty boomers to come and effect the area.
NWS has trended the high temps down to upper 80’s to lower 90’s.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for far western parts of SNE and I would expect another watch to be posted across more areas of SNE as the afternoon progresses.
Storms are popping up in the Adirondacks where the saw some devastating flash flooding several weeks again. Especially in Warren County, Thurman NY.
Storm Prediction Center just upgraded a good part of SNE to a Moderate Risk for severe weather today. Keep an eye to those skies this afternoon.
From the SSPC:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011
AREAS AFFECTED…MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR…FROM
WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE INTO THE BOSTON AREA
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091745Z – 091915Z
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR IS BEING MONITORED FOR A NEW
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE…WHICH MAY BE NEEDED BY 19-20Z.
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS UPSTATE
NEW YORK…IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA…AND EAST
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AIDED BY MODEST DEEP LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW /20-30 KT/…UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH APPEARS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD INTO A MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. A CONSOLIDATING
AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVOLVING
SQUALL LINE PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG…POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY IMPACT THE GREAT NEW
YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS BY
21-22Z…THE BOSTON AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER…AND PERHAPS
PHILADELPHIA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON
D.C. AREA TOWARD 23-00Z.
..KERR.. 06/09/2011
Just looking at the doppler radar…
Most of the storms appear to be Mesocyclones! That is not good.
Also of note. Tops so far to 41,000 feet with hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter.
Again, not good.
We shall see what shape they are in when they reach our area.
New Severe T-Storm Watch Box in our area now.
From the Severe Storms Prediction Center at 2:45PM
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF CONNECTICUT
NORTHERN DELAWARE
MASSACHUSETTS
FAR NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHERN NEW YORK
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
RHODE ISLAND
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
OS, when do you think they will arrive in the Boston Area?
Btw,
The SSPC updated chances of tornadoes from 2% to 5%. I believe that last week
was also set at 5%.
Just something to watch.
Adding to the Above, Dr. Forbes now has ALL of MA with a TOR:CON index of
2. I don’t think that warrants a tornado watch. I think it needs to be at least a 3 if not a 4. Last week it was 3-4 when the watch was issued.
Thanks for all the comments today guys and gals!
I read most of them. Just a couple comments. MOS temp forecasts have been too high lately and I was not going to buy into the 100+. Regardless, the morning storms and leftover debris clouds cut off a few degrees on the potential high temp as is.
This new stuff coming in has strong squall line written all over it, with of course some severe due to straight line winds and hail barely to warning criteria. This kind of line often dives more to the south with the southern cells nailing areas along and south of the Pike while areas to the north see less widespread. I could be wrong here, but watch for this possibility in the next few hours. Do NOT let your guard down anywhere, however. Firing off a quick new blog now…